Politics mention markets

Name: Politics mention markets: word history and probabilities
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 23, 2026, Parrot covers 923 Kalshi and Polymarket politics mention-market events (7 open) for 205 people, shows and companies, with 277 transcripts.

US politics: cabinet, Congress, governors, hearings, debates, courts, candidates.

Data updated Oct 23, 2026, 23:09 UTC· Source: Kalshi, Polymarket, transcripts

Numbers: events in the next 14 days

Coming up

next 14 days · 4 events

K = Kalshi, P = Polymarket: mid prices, up to about 20 minutes old. Not advice.

said / not said on each settled listing
no appearance
chance it is said next time

Sat, Oct 24

Tomorrow2 events

Barack ObamaMidterm rally in Ohio

Barack Obama: times each word was said per appearance, oldest first, and the probability for the next one
Word	2 listings before the last	1 listing before the last	the last settled listing	Chance next time: probability
MichelleK 72¢	Michelle: said, 2 listings before the last	Michelle: said, 1 listing before the last	Michelle: said, the last settled listing	59% from settlement history
ChicagoK 26¢	Chicago: no appearance in 2 listings before the last	Chicago: said, 1 listing before the last	Chicago: said, the last settled listing	58% from settlement history
AffordK 88¢	Afford: no appearance in 2 listings before the last	Afford: no appearance in 1 listing before the last	Afford: said, the last settled listing	– too little history for a probability
250K 14¢	250: no appearance in 2 listings before the last	250: not said, 1 listing before the last	250: said, the last settled listing	46% from settlement history
ConstitutionK 87¢	Constitution: no appearance in 2 listings before the last	Constitution: not said, 1 listing before the last	Constitution: said, the last settled listing	46% from settlement history
BidenK 32¢	Biden: not said, 2 listings before the last	Biden: said, 1 listing before the last	Biden: not said, the last settled listing	41% from settlement history

Kalshi+18 more words

Bernie SandersRally in Duluth

Bernie Sanders: times each word was said per appearance, oldest first, and the probability for the next one
Word	7 listings before the last	6 listings before the last	5 listings before the last	4 listings before the last	3 listings before the last	2 listings before the last	1 listing before the last	the last settled listing	Chance next time: probability
IranK 82¢	Iran: said, 7 listings before the last	Iran: said, 6 listings before the last	Iran: said, 5 listings before the last	Iran: said, 4 listings before the last	Iran: said, 3 listings before the last	Iran: said, 2 listings before the last	Iran: said, 1 listing before the last	Iran: said, the last settled listing	83% from settlement history
AIK 89¢	AI: said, 7 listings before the last	AI: not said, 6 listings before the last	AI: said, 5 listings before the last	AI: said, 4 listings before the last	AI: said, 3 listings before the last	AI: said, 2 listings before the last	AI: said, 1 listing before the last	AI: said, the last settled listing	80% from settlement history
Billionaire5+K 73¢	Billionaire: said, 7 listings before the last	Billionaire: said, 6 listings before the last	Billionaire: said, 5 listings before the last	Billionaire: said, 4 listings before the last	Billionaire: said, 3 listings before the last	Billionaire: said, 2 listings before the last	Billionaire: said, 1 listing before the last	Billionaire: not said, the last settled listing	73% from settlement history
HousingK 84¢	Housing: no appearance in 7 listings before the last	Housing: no appearance in 6 listings before the last	Housing: no appearance in 5 listings before the last	Housing: said, 4 listings before the last	Housing: not said, 3 listings before the last	Housing: said, 2 listings before the last	Housing: said, 1 listing before the last	Housing: said, the last settled listing	68% from settlement history
CorruptK 82¢	Corrupt: said, 7 listings before the last	Corrupt: not said, 6 listings before the last	Corrupt: said, 5 listings before the last	Corrupt: said, 4 listings before the last	Corrupt: not said, 3 listings before the last	Corrupt: said, 2 listings before the last	Corrupt: said, 1 listing before the last	Corrupt: said, the last settled listing	65% from settlement history
ClimateK 68¢	Climate: not said, 7 listings before the last	Climate: not said, 6 listings before the last	Climate: said, 5 listings before the last	Climate: said, 4 listings before the last	Climate: said, 3 listings before the last	Climate: said, 2 listings before the last	Climate: not said, 1 listing before the last	Climate: said, the last settled listing	61% from settlement history

Kalshi+14 more words

Sun, Oct 25

1 event

Bernie SandersRally in Wisconsin

Bernie Sanders: times each word was said per appearance, oldest first, and the probability for the next one
Word	7 listings before the last	6 listings before the last	5 listings before the last	4 listings before the last	3 listings before the last	2 listings before the last	1 listing before the last	the last settled listing	Chance next time: probability
IranK 72¢	Iran: said, 7 listings before the last	Iran: said, 6 listings before the last	Iran: said, 5 listings before the last	Iran: said, 4 listings before the last	Iran: said, 3 listings before the last	Iran: said, 2 listings before the last	Iran: said, 1 listing before the last	Iran: said, the last settled listing	83% from settlement history
Billionaire5+K 72¢	Billionaire: said, 7 listings before the last	Billionaire: said, 6 listings before the last	Billionaire: said, 5 listings before the last	Billionaire: said, 4 listings before the last	Billionaire: said, 3 listings before the last	Billionaire: said, 2 listings before the last	Billionaire: said, 1 listing before the last	Billionaire: not said, the last settled listing	73% from settlement history
HousingK 77¢	Housing: no appearance in 7 listings before the last	Housing: no appearance in 6 listings before the last	Housing: no appearance in 5 listings before the last	Housing: said, 4 listings before the last	Housing: not said, 3 listings before the last	Housing: said, 2 listings before the last	Housing: said, 1 listing before the last	Housing: said, the last settled listing	68% from settlement history
CorruptK 80¢	Corrupt: said, 7 listings before the last	Corrupt: not said, 6 listings before the last	Corrupt: said, 5 listings before the last	Corrupt: said, 4 listings before the last	Corrupt: not said, 3 listings before the last	Corrupt: said, 2 listings before the last	Corrupt: said, 1 listing before the last	Corrupt: said, the last settled listing	65% from settlement history
ClimateK 66¢	Climate: not said, 7 listings before the last	Climate: not said, 6 listings before the last	Climate: said, 5 listings before the last	Climate: said, 4 listings before the last	Climate: said, 3 listings before the last	Climate: said, 2 listings before the last	Climate: not said, 1 listing before the last	Climate: said, the last settled listing	61% from settlement history
IsraelK 58¢	Israel: said, 7 listings before the last	Israel: not said, 6 listings before the last	Israel: said, 5 listings before the last	Israel: said, 4 listings before the last	Israel: said, 3 listings before the last	Israel: not said, 2 listings before the last	Israel: said, 1 listing before the last	Israel: not said, the last settled listing	60% from settlement history

Kalshi+14 more words

Mon, Oct 26

1 event

JD VanceRally in Kansas

JD Vance: times each word was said per appearance, oldest first, and the probability for the next one
Word	7 listings before the last	6 listings before the last	5 listings before the last	4 listings before the last	3 listings before the last	2 listings before the last	1 listing before the last	the last settled listing	Chance next time: probability
DemocratK 80¢	Democrat: said, 7 listings before the last	Democrat: said, 6 listings before the last	Democrat: said, 5 listings before the last	Democrat: said, 4 listings before the last	Democrat: said, 3 listings before the last	Democrat: said, 2 listings before the last	Democrat: said, 1 listing before the last	Democrat: said, the last settled listing	84% from settlement history
ElectionK 80¢	Election: said, 7 listings before the last	Election: said, 6 listings before the last	Election: said, 5 listings before the last	Election: said, 4 listings before the last	Election: said, 3 listings before the last	Election: said, 2 listings before the last	Election: said, 1 listing before the last	Election: said, the last settled listing	78% from settlement history
2028K 50¢	2028: said, 7 listings before the last	2028: said, 6 listings before the last	2028: said, 5 listings before the last	2028: said, 4 listings before the last	2028: said, 3 listings before the last	2028: said, 2 listings before the last	2028: said, 1 listing before the last	2028: said, the last settled listing	72% from settlement history
BidenK 78¢	Biden: said, 7 listings before the last	Biden: said, 6 listings before the last	Biden: said, 5 listings before the last	Biden: not said, 4 listings before the last	Biden: said, 3 listings before the last	Biden: said, 2 listings before the last	Biden: not said, 1 listing before the last	Biden: not said, the last settled listing	67% from settlement history
Tax on TipsK 68¢	Tax on Tips: said, 7 listings before the last	Tax on Tips: said, 6 listings before the last	Tax on Tips: said, 5 listings before the last	Tax on Tips: said, 4 listings before the last	Tax on Tips: not said, 3 listings before the last	Tax on Tips: said, 2 listings before the last	Tax on Tips: not said, 1 listing before the last	Tax on Tips: said, the last settled listing	66% from settlement history
Illegal AlienK 56¢	Illegal Alien: said, 7 listings before the last	Illegal Alien: said, 6 listings before the last	Illegal Alien: said, 5 listings before the last	Illegal Alien: not said, 4 listings before the last	Illegal Alien: not said, 3 listings before the last	Illegal Alien: said, 2 listings before the last	Illegal Alien: said, 1 listing before the last	Illegal Alien: not said, the last settled listing	61% from settlement history

Kalshi+21 more words

Recently settled

JD Vance
Wed, Oct 21 · Fraud press conference
6 of 25 words said
Settled by the venues; no transcript count yet
- 2028Yes
- CaliforniaYes
- DemocratYes
- ElectionYes
Political debates
Wed, Oct 21 · Iowa Governor debate
4 of 32 words said
Settled by the venues; no transcript count yet
- AIPACYes
- CanadaYes
- FraudYes
- TrumpYes
Zohran Mamdani
Tue, Oct 20 · Next live announcement
6 of 14 words said
Our count matched 14 of 14
- SafeYes · 23×
- CommunityYes · 20×
- HealthYes · 4×
- FamilyYes · 2×
Bernie Sanders
Tue, Oct 20 · Rally in Houston
12 of 26 words said
Settled by the venues; no transcript count yet
- AIYes
- BernieYes
- ChinaYes
- ClimateYes
JD Vance
Tue, Oct 20 · Announcement
4 of 17 words said
Settled by the venues; no transcript count yet
- AffordYes
- DemocratYes
- FraudYes
- TaxpayerYes
James Talarico
Tue, Oct 20 · The Moment with Katy Tur
7 of 14 words said
Settled by the venues; no transcript count yet
- BillionaireYes
- CorruptYes
- Data CenterYes
- HealthcareYes
Bernie Sanders
Mon, Oct 19 · Rally in Amarillo
0 of 24 words said
Settled by the venues; no transcript count yet
- AINo
- BernieNo
- BillionaireNo
- ChatGPTNo
Zohran Mamdani
Wed, Oct 14 · Next live announcement
9 of 14 words said
Our count matched 14 of 14
- EconomyYes · 5×
- TrumpYes · 4×
- AffordYes · 3×
- FamilyYes · 2×

Who is covered

100, most active first

Zohran Mamdani173 events · 277 transcripts2 open
JD Vance115 events2 open
Bernie Sanders65 events2 open
Barack Obama5 events1 open
Congressional hearings52 events
Kathy Hochul50 events
Political debates34 events
Kamala Harris29 events
Ro Khanna27 events
Scott Bessent26 events
Melania Trump24 events
Pete Hegseth24 events
Gavin Newsom21 events
Hakeem Jeffries20 events
Jon Ossoff19 events
Todd Blanche18 events
Joe Biden17 events
Cory Booker16 events
James Talarico14 events
Markwayne Mullin14 events
Tim Walz14 events
Wes Moore14 events
Tom Homan13 events
Marco Rubio12 events

Show all 100

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.12 events
Chris Wright11 events
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez10 events
Elizabeth Warren9 events
Jamie Raskin9 events
Kash Patel9 events
Mark Kelly9 events
Mehmet Oz9 events
Mike Johnson9 events
Abdul El-Sayed8 events
Amy Klobuchar7 events
Jared Isaacman7 events
Raphael Warnock7 events
Andy Beshear6 events
Jacob Frey6 events
Josh Shapiro6 events
Kristi Noem6 events
Abigail Spanberger5 events
Adam Schiff5 events
Nancy Pelosi5 events
Ted Cruz5 events
US Supreme Court5 events
Howard Lutnick4 events
James Fishback4 events
JB Pritzker4 events
John Fetterman4 events
Josh Turek4 events
Ken Paxton4 events
Kevin Hassett4 events
Mike Pence4 events
Mike Waltz4 events
Pete Buttigieg4 events
Sean Duffy4 events
Steve Hilton4 events
Anna Paulina Luna3 events
Beto O'Rourke3 events
Chris Van Hollen3 events
Gary Peters3 events
Gretchen Whitmer3 events
Janet Mills3 events
John Thune3 events
Marjorie Taylor Greene3 events
Mark Warner3 events
Mikie Sherrill3 events
Rand Paul3 events
Roy Cooper3 events
Sherrod Brown3 events
Troy Jackson3 events
Usha Vance3 events
Andrew Cuomo2 events
Chuck Schumer2 events
David Sacks2 events
Doug Burgum2 events
George W. Bush2 events
Graham Platner2 events
Greg Abbott2 events
Hillary Clinton2 events
Hunter Biden2 events
Ilhan Omar2 events
Jack Smith2 events
James Comer2 events
James Comey2 events
James Walkinshaw2 events
Jasmine Crockett2 events
Jill Biden2 events
Joe Manchin2 events
John Kerry2 events
Katie Hobbs2 events
Lee Zeldin2 events
Rick Scott2 events
Robert Garcia2 events
Ron DeSantis2 events
Thomas Massie2 events
Tulsi Gabbard2 events
Jeanine Pirro1 event
Kevin Stitt1 event

Most-tracked words

by settled listings; probability = calibrated p for the next listing

Politics: most-tracked words
Word	Who	Last 10 settled	Said when listed	Next time
AffordZohran Mamdani	Zohran Mamdani	6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes no yes yes no yes no yes	86/13464%	53%n=134 from settlement history
NYPDZohran Mamdani	Zohran Mamdani	4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes yes yes no no no no no	47/13236%	36%n=132 from settlement history
EconomyZohran Mamdani	Zohran Mamdani	4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes no yes no no yes no no	40/12931%	30%n=129 from settlement history
BidenJD Vance	JD Vance	7/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes no yes yes no no	50/7368%	67%n=73 from settlement history
AIJD Vance	JD Vance	1/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no yes no no no	10/6017%	18%n=60 from settlement history
DemocratJD Vance	JD Vance	10/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes	45/5680%	84%n=56 from settlement history
MayorKathy Hochul	Kathy Hochul	7/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes yes yes yes yes no no yes	31/4470%	63%n=44 from settlement history
EconomyKathy Hochul	Kathy Hochul	3/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes no yes no no yes no no	19/4443%	39%n=44 from settlement history
BuffaloKathy Hochul	Kathy Hochul	4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes no yes no no yes no no	24/4356%	46%n=43 from settlement history
CorruptBernie Sanders	Bernie Sanders	7/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes no yes yes no yes yes yes	27/4264%	65%n=42 from settlement history
RobotBernie Sanders	Bernie Sanders	4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes no yes no no yes no yes	27/3969%	57%n=39 from settlement history
BernieBernie Sanders	Bernie Sanders	6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no yes yes yes yes no yes yes	18/3946%	52%n=39 from settlement history
AICongressional hearings	Congressional hearings	8/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no yes yes yes yes yes no	22/2781%	73%n=27 from settlement history
AIPolitical debates	Political debates	10/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes	17/2763%	75%n=27 from settlement history
TariffScott Bessent	Scott Bessent	7/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes yes yes yes no no yes yes	17/2471%	61%n=24 from settlement history
Stock MarketScott Bessent	Scott Bessent	3/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no no no yes no no no no	7/2330%	30%n=23 from settlement history
BidenCongressional hearings	Congressional hearings	7/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no yes yes yes yes no no yes	12/2157%	57%n=21 from settlement history
DemocracyGavin Newsom	Gavin Newsom	4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes no no no no no yes yes	10/2050%	44%n=20 from settlement history
TrumpGavin Newsom	Gavin Newsom	8/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no yes yes yes yes no yes yes	15/1979%	70%n=19 from settlement history
DonaldMelania Trump	Melania Trump	2/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no no no no no no yes	3/1916%	26%n=19 from settlement history

Citeparrot.markets, “Politics mention markets”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics (CC BY 4.0)