Ken Paxton
As of Oct 24, 2026, Kalshi has settled 33 word markets on Ken Paxton’s appearances since 2026, on 23 different words.
History Wall
1–24 of 24, most settled first| Word | Mar 27remarks | Apr 22remarks | May 19episode | Sep 10latest | Last 4 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Border | Settled no: Border, Mar 27 remarks | Not listed: Border, Apr 22 remarks | Settled yes: Border, May 19 episode | Settled yes: Border, Sep 10 speech | 2/367% | 2/367% | 56%n=2 from settlement history |
| Democrat | Settled no: Democrat, Mar 27 remarks | Not listed: Democrat, Apr 22 remarks | Settled yes: Democrat, May 19 episode | Settled yes: Democrat, Sep 10 speech | 2/367% | 2/367% | 56%n=2 from settlement history |
| Trump3+ times | Settled yes: Trump (3+ times), Mar 27 remarks | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Apr 22 remarks | Settled yes: Trump (3+ times), May 19 episode | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Sep 10 speech | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Big Tech | Settled yes: Big Tech, Mar 27 remarks | Not listed: Big Tech, Apr 22 remarks | Settled no: Big Tech, May 19 episode | Not listed: Big Tech, Sep 10 speech | 1/250% | 1/250% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Deport / Deportation | Settled yes: Deport / Deportation, Mar 27 remarks | Not listed: Deport / Deportation, Apr 22 remarks | Settled no: Deport / Deportation, May 19 episode | Not listed: Deport / Deportation, Sep 10 speech | 1/250% | 1/250% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Mar 27 remarks | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Apr 22 remarks | Settled no: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, May 19 episode | Settled yes: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Sep 10 speech | 1/250% | 1/250% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| ID / Identification | Settled yes: ID / Identification, Mar 27 remarks | Not listed: ID / Identification, Apr 22 remarks | Settled no: ID / Identification, May 19 episode | Not listed: ID / Identification, Sep 10 speech | 1/250% | 1/250% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Attorney General | Not listed: Attorney General, Mar 27 remarks | Not listed: Attorney General, Apr 22 remarks | Not listed: Attorney General, May 19 episode | Settled yes: Attorney General, Sep 10 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Christian / Christianity | Not listed: Christian / Christianity, Mar 27 remarks | Not listed: Christian / Christianity, Apr 22 remarks | Not listed: Christian / Christianity, May 19 episode | Settled yes: Christian / Christianity, Sep 10 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Endorse / Endorsed / Endorsement | Not listed: Endorse / Endorsed / Endorsement, Mar 27 remarks | Not listed: Endorse / Endorsed / Endorsement, Apr 22 remarks | Settled yes: Endorse / Endorsed / Endorsement, May 19 episode | Not listed: Endorse / Endorsed / Endorsement, Sep 10 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | – |
| Socialism / Socialist | Not listed: Socialism / Socialist, Mar 27 remarks | Not listed: Socialism / Socialist, Apr 22 remarks | Not listed: Socialism / Socialist, May 19 episode | Settled yes: Socialism / Socialist, Sep 10 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Talarico | Not listed: Talarico, Mar 27 remarks | Not listed: Talarico, Apr 22 remarks | Not listed: Talarico, May 19 episode | Settled yes: Talarico, Sep 10 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Tax | Not listed: Tax, Mar 27 remarks | Not listed: Tax, Apr 22 remarks | Not listed: Tax, May 19 episode | Settled yes: Tax, Sep 10 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Trump | Not listed: Trump, Mar 27 remarks | Not listed: Trump, Apr 22 remarks | Not listed: Trump, May 19 episode | Settled yes: Trump, Sep 10 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Mar 27 remarks | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Apr 22 remarks | Settled no: AI / Artificial Intelligence, May 19 episode | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Sep 10 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| America First | Not listed: America First, Mar 27 remarks | Not listed: America First, Apr 22 remarks | Settled no: America First, May 19 episode | Not listed: America First, Sep 10 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Biden | Not listed: Biden, Mar 27 remarks | Not listed: Biden, Apr 22 remarks | Settled no: Biden, May 19 episode | Not listed: Biden, Sep 10 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Cornyn | Not listed: Cornyn, Mar 27 remarks | Not listed: Cornyn, Apr 22 remarks | Not listed: Cornyn, May 19 episode | Settled no: Cornyn, Sep 10 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| ICE / DHS | Settled no: ICE / DHS, Mar 27 remarks | Not listed: ICE / DHS, Apr 22 remarks | Not listed: ICE / DHS, May 19 episode | Not listed: ICE / DHS, Sep 10 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Election / Midterm | Not listed: Election / Midterm, Mar 27 remarks | Not listed: Election / Midterm, Apr 22 remarks | Not listed: Election / Midterm, May 19 episode | Settled no: Election / Midterm, Sep 10 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Noem / Homan | Settled no: Noem / Homan, Mar 27 remarks | Not listed: Noem / Homan, Apr 22 remarks | Not listed: Noem / Homan, May 19 episode | Not listed: Noem / Homan, Sep 10 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Jesus | Settled no: Jesus, Mar 27 remarks | Not listed: Jesus, Apr 22 remarks | Not listed: Jesus, May 19 episode | Not listed: Jesus, Sep 10 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | Not listed: MAGA / Make America Great Again, Mar 27 remarks | Not listed: MAGA / Make America Great Again, Apr 22 remarks | Settled no: MAGA / Make America Great Again, May 19 episode | Not listed: MAGA / Make America Great Again, Sep 10 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Muslim | Settled no: Muslim, Mar 27 remarks | Not listed: Muslim, Apr 22 remarks | Not listed: Muslim, May 19 episode | Not listed: Muslim, Sep 10 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 4Settled results come from the venues. Our own transcript counts appear here once transcripts arrive for these appearances. How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | SpeechWhat will Ken Paxton say during RNC Midterm Convention? | no transcript | 12 | 9 yes · 3 no | – |
| May 19, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will Ken Paxton say during Fox News: The Will Cain Show? | no transcript | 13 | 4 yes · 9 no | – |
| Apr 22, 2026 | RemarksWhat will Ken Paxton say during Turning Point Tour? | no transcript | 14 | 1 yes · 0 no | – |
| Mar 27, 2026 | RemarksWhat will Ken Paxton say during the CPAC Dinner? | no transcript | 11 | 4 yes · 7 no | – |
Citeparrot.markets, “Ken Paxton: mention market word history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/ken-paxton (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/ken-paxton · words: /api/v1/history?entity=ken-paxton · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP