Will JD Vance say “Illegal Alien”?

As of Oct 23, 2026, JD Vance said “Illegal Alien” at 32 of 49 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 1, 2024 (65%), most recently on Oct 19, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 61% (n=49, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 rallies have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3. No rallies among them yet.

61%from settlement history only · n=49Next: Rally, Oct 26, 2026 · counts: named speaker only
Last 10
7/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes no no yes yes no
Streak
not said last time
Counts
named speaker only
Market
56¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

JD Vance

Illegal Alien

Probability
61% · n=49
Settled
32/49 (65%)
Last 5 transcripts
said in 3 of 5

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

JD VancespeakerVice President JD Vance Briefs Members of the Media, Sep. 3, 2026 · Sep 3, 2026 · 0:32In transcript

…an American trucker wondering why it is that the last administration facilitated illegal aliens driving semitrucks on our roads, or if you're an American who…

JD VanceotherPress Briefing by Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt and the Vice President, Jan. 8, 2026 · Jan 8, 2026 · 4:21In transcript

…fraud so that people who need food benefits can get them but illegal aliens and other fraudsters don't. We have over 1,500 subpoenas that the…

JD VanceotherPress Secretary Karoline Leavitt Briefs Members of the Media, Oct. 1, 2025 · Oct 1, 2025 · 5:09In transcript

…happen. What they have done instead is to shut down the government because we won't give billions of dollars to healthcare funding for illegal aliens.

What will JD Vance say during his fraud press conference? · settled no

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What will JD Vance say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in North Carolina? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will JD Vance say during his CBS Town Hall? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will JD Vance say during his rally in Michigan? · settled no

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in Ohio? · settled no

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in Alaska? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will JD Vance say during Fox News: Hannity? · settled yes

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What will JD Vance say during his Midterm Rally in Florida? · settled yes

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What will JD Vance say during his Midterm Rally in Texas? · settled yes

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Every settled listing

newest first · 57 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 21, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiNo–
Oct 19, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiYes–
Oct 17, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiYes–
Oct 15, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiNo–
Oct 9, 2026Illegal AlienPolymarketNo–
Oct 9, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiNo–
Oct 5, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiYes–
Oct 1, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiYes–
Oct 1, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiYes–
Sep 30, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiYes–
Sep 21, 2026Illegal AlienPolymarketYes–
Sep 21, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiYes–
Sep 18, 2026Illegal AlienPolymarketYes–
Sep 18, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiYes–
Sep 14, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiNo–
Sep 14, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiNo–
Sep 9, 2026Illegal AlienPolymarketYes–
Sep 9, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiYes–
Sep 3, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiYes–
Aug 31, 2026Illegal AlienPolymarketYes–
Aug 31, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiYes–
Aug 24, 2026Illegal AlienPolymarketYes–
Aug 24, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiYes–
Aug 21, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiNo–
Aug 13, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiNo–
Aug 8, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiYes–
Aug 5, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiYes–
Jul 8, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiYes–
Jun 30, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiYes–
Jun 17, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiNo–
Jun 16, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiNo–
Jun 16, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiNo–
Jun 14, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiNo–
Jun 8, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiYes–
May 29, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
May 19, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiNo–
May 18, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiYes–
May 16, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiYes–
May 15, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiNo–
May 14, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiYes–
May 5, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiYes–
Apr 30, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Apr 14, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiYes–
Mar 18, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiYes–
Mar 13, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiYes–
Mar 9, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiNo–
Feb 27, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiYes–
Feb 26, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiYes–
Feb 18, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiYes–
Jan 24, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiNo–
Jan 9, 2026Illegal AlienKalshiYes3
Nov 27, 2025Illegal AlienKalshiNo–
Nov 21, 2025Illegal AlienKalshiYes–
Nov 15, 2025Illegal AlienKalshiNo–
Nov 14, 2025Illegal AlienKalshiYes–
Oct 30, 2025Illegal AlienKalshiYes–
Oct 1, 2024Illegal alienPolymarketYes–

Questions

How often does JD Vance say “Illegal Alien”?
As of Oct 23, 2026, JD Vance said “Illegal Alien” at 32 of 49 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Oct 1, 2024 (65%), most recently on Oct 19, 2026.
What is the probability JD Vance says “Illegal Alien” next time?
61%, from settlement history (n=49). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Illegal Alien’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/illegal-alien (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=illegal%20alien · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP