Donald Trump
As of Oct 23, 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket have settled 22,625 word markets on Donald Trump’s appearances since 2024, on 3,664 different words; most reliably said: “Deal / Settle” (17 of 18). Next: Rally, Oct 24, 2026 (46 words listed).
Next: Rally ·
46 words listed · Occasion page
Who counts: Kalshi: named speaker only Polymarket: named speaker only
Kalshi
Polymarket| Word | Oct 13rally | Oct 14rally | Oct 14rally | Oct 16rally | Oct 17rally | Oct 19rally | Oct 20rally | Oct 21rally | Oct 22rally | Oct 23latest | Last 10 | Settled | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend / Stimulus | Settled yes: Dividend / Stimulus, Oct 13 rally | Settled yes: Dividend / Stimulus, Oct 14 rally | Settled yes: Dividend / Stimulus, Oct 14 rally | Settled yes: Dividend / Stimulus, Oct 16 rally | Settled yes: Dividend / Stimulus, Oct 17 rally | Settled yes: Dividend / Stimulus, Oct 19 rally | Settled yes: Dividend / Stimulus, Oct 20 rally | Not listed: Dividend / Stimulus, Oct 21 rally | 2 times: Dividend / Stimulus, Oct 22 rally, counts as said | 2 times: Dividend / Stimulus, Oct 23 rally, counts as said | 9/9100% | 29/4072% | 90%n=40 from settlement history | 96¢ Kalshi |
| Save America Act | Settled yes: Save America Act, Oct 13 rally | Settled yes: Save America Act, Oct 14 rally | Settled yes: Save America Act, Oct 14 rally | Settled yes: Save America Act, Oct 16 rally | Settled yes: Save America Act, Oct 17 rally | Settled yes: Save America Act, Oct 19 rally | Settled yes: Save America Act, Oct 20 rally | 1 time: Save America Act, Oct 21 rally, counts as said | 1 time: Save America Act, Oct 22 rally, counts as said | 1 time: Save America Act, Oct 23 rally, counts as said | 10/10100% | 49/8061% | 78%n=80 from settlement history | 96¢ Kalshi |
| Sleepy Joe | Settled yes: Sleepy Joe, Oct 13 rally | Settled yes: Sleepy Joe, Oct 14 rally | Settled yes: Sleepy Joe, Oct 14 rally | Settled yes: Sleepy Joe, Oct 16 rally | Settled yes: Sleepy Joe, Oct 17 rally | Not listed: Sleepy Joe, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Sleepy Joe, Oct 20 rally | 3 times: Sleepy Joe, Oct 21 rally, counts as said | 2 times: Sleepy Joe, Oct 22 rally, counts as said | 2 times: Sleepy Joe, Oct 23 rally, counts as said | 8/8100% | 102/13476% | 76%n=134 from settlement history | 90¢ Kalshi |
| Nuclear3+ times | Not listed: Nuclear (3+ times), Oct 13 rally | Not listed: Nuclear (3+ times), Oct 14 rally | Not listed: Nuclear (3+ times), Oct 14 rally | Not listed: Nuclear (3+ times), Oct 16 rally | Not listed: Nuclear (3+ times), Oct 17 rally | Not listed: Nuclear (3+ times), Oct 19 rally | Settled yes: Nuclear (3+ times), Oct 20 rally | 8 times: Nuclear (3+ times), Oct 21 rally, counts as said | 6 times: Nuclear (3+ times), Oct 22 rally, counts as said | 9 times: Nuclear (3+ times), Oct 23 rally, counts as said | 4/4100% | 12/1580% | 72%n=15 from settlement history | 90¢ Kalshi |
| Transgender | Settled yes: Transgender, Oct 13 rally | Settled yes: Transgender, Oct 14 rally | Settled yes: Transgender, Oct 14 rally | Settled yes: Transgender, Oct 16 rally | Settled yes: Transgender, Oct 17 rally | Settled yes: Transgender, Oct 19 rally | Settled yes: Transgender, Oct 20 rally | Not listed: Transgender, Oct 21 rally | 8 times: Transgender, Oct 22 rally, counts as said | 6 times: Transgender, Oct 23 rally, counts as said | 9/9100% | 149/25159% | 71%n=251 from settlement history | 98¢ Kalshi |
| Supreme Court | Settled yes: Supreme Court, Oct 13 rally | Settled yes: Supreme Court, Oct 14 rally | Settled yes: Supreme Court, Oct 14 rally | Settled yes: Supreme Court, Oct 16 rally | Settled yes: Supreme Court, Oct 17 rally | Not listed: Supreme Court, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Supreme Court, Oct 20 rally | 3 times: Supreme Court, Oct 21 rally, counts as said | 2 times: Supreme Court, Oct 22 rally, counts as said | 2 times: Supreme Court, Oct 23 rally, counts as said | 8/8100% | 46/10146% | 66%n=101 from settlement history | 90¢ Kalshi |
| Barack Hussein Obama | Settled yes: Barack Hussein Obama, Oct 13 rally | Settled yes: Barack Hussein Obama, Oct 14 rally | Settled no: Barack Hussein Obama, Oct 14 rally | Settled yes: Barack Hussein Obama, Oct 16 rally | Settled yes: Barack Hussein Obama, Oct 17 rally | Not listed: Barack Hussein Obama, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Barack Hussein Obama, Oct 20 rally | 6 times: Barack Hussein Obama, Oct 21 rally, counts as said | 4 times: Barack Hussein Obama, Oct 22 rally, counts as said | 4 times: Barack Hussein Obama, Oct 23 rally, counts as said | 7/888% | 121/19462% | 65%n=194 from settlement history | 88¢ Kalshi |
| Crime / Criminal10+ times | Not listed: Crime / Criminal 10+ times, Oct 13 rally | Not listed: Crime / Criminal 10+ times, Oct 14 rally | Not listed: Crime / Criminal 10+ times, Oct 14 rally | Not listed: Crime / Criminal 10+ times, Oct 16 rally | Not listed: Crime / Criminal 10+ times, Oct 17 rally | Not listed: Crime / Criminal 10+ times, Oct 19 rally | Settled yes: Crime / Criminal 10+ times, Oct 20 rally | Not listed: Crime / Criminal 10+ times, Oct 21 rally | Not listed: Crime / Criminal 10+ times, Oct 22 rally | Not listed: Crime / Criminal 10+ times, Oct 23 rally | 1/1100% | 2/2100% | 64%n=2 from settlement history | 52¢ Polymarket |
| Kamala | Settled yes: Kamala, Oct 13 rally | Settled no: Kamala, Oct 14 rally | Settled no: Kamala, Oct 14 rally | Settled yes: Kamala, Oct 16 rally | Settled no: Kamala, Oct 17 rally | Settled yes: Kamala, Oct 19 rally | Settled yes: Kamala, Oct 20 rally | 0 times: Kamala, Oct 21 rally | 1 time: Kamala, Oct 22 rally, counts as said | 3 times: Kamala, Oct 23 rally, counts as said | 6/1060% | 40/7057% | 63%n=68 from settlement history | 82¢ Kalshi |
| Cheat / Cheater / Cheating | Settled yes: Cheat / Cheater / Cheating, Oct 13 rally | Settled yes: Cheat / Cheater / Cheating, Oct 14 rally | Settled yes: Cheat / Cheater / Cheating, Oct 14 rally | Settled yes: Cheat / Cheater / Cheating, Oct 16 rally | Settled yes: Cheat / Cheater / Cheating, Oct 17 rally | Not listed: Cheat / Cheater / Cheating, Oct 19 rally | Settled yes: Cheat / Cheater / Cheating, Oct 20 rally | 4 times: Cheat / Cheater / Cheating, Oct 21 rally, counts as said | Not listed: Cheat / Cheater / Cheating, Oct 22 rally | 4 times: Cheat / Cheater / Cheating, Oct 23 rally, counts as said | 8/8100% | 23/4255% | 62%n=42 from settlement history | 94¢ Kalshi |
| Iran5+ times | Settled yes: Iran (5+ times), Oct 13 rally | Settled yes: Iran (5+ times), Oct 14 rally | Settled yes: Iran (5+ times), Oct 14 rally | Settled yes: Iran (5+ times), Oct 16 rally | Settled no: Iran (5+ times), Oct 17 rally | Settled no: Iran (5+ times), Oct 19 rally | Settled no: Iran (5+ times), Oct 20 rally | 8 times: Iran (5+ times), Oct 21 rally, counts as said | 12 times: Iran (5+ times), Oct 22 rally, counts as said | 15 times: Iran (5+ times), Oct 23 rally, counts as said | 7/1070% | 22/3465% | 61%n=34 from settlement history | 78¢ Kalshi |
| Made in America / American Made | Settled yes: Made in America / American Made, Oct 13 rally | Settled yes: Made in America / American Made, Oct 14 rally | Settled no: Made in America / American Made, Oct 14 rally | Settled yes: Made in America / American Made, Oct 16 rally | Settled no: Made in America / American Made, Oct 17 rally | Settled no: Made in America / American Made, Oct 19 rally | Settled no: Made in America / American Made, Oct 20 rally | 1 time: Made in America / American Made, Oct 21 rally, counts as said | 0 times: Made in America / American Made, Oct 22 rally | 1 time: Made in America / American Made, Oct 23 rally, counts as said | 5/1050% | 13/2650% | 57%n=26 from settlement history | 72¢ Kalshi |
| Russia / Ukraine | Settled no: Russia / Ukraine, Oct 13 rally | Settled yes: Russia / Ukraine, Oct 14 rally | Settled no: Russia / Ukraine, Oct 14 rally | Settled yes: Russia / Ukraine, Oct 16 rally | Settled yes: Russia / Ukraine, Oct 17 rally | Settled no: Russia / Ukraine, Oct 19 rally | Settled no: Russia / Ukraine, Oct 20 rally | 7 times: Russia / Ukraine, Oct 21 rally, counts as said | 5 times: Russia / Ukraine, Oct 22 rally, counts as said | 8 times: Russia / Ukraine, Oct 23 rally, counts as said | 6/1060% | 17/3253% | 57%n=32 from settlement history | 90¢ Kalshi |
| Gulf of America | Settled no: Gulf of America, Oct 13 rally | Settled yes: Gulf of America, Oct 14 rally | Settled no: Gulf of America, Oct 14 rally | Settled yes: Gulf of America, Oct 16 rally | Settled yes: Gulf of America, Oct 17 rally | Settled no: Gulf of America, Oct 19 rally | Settled no: Gulf of America, Oct 20 rally | 1 time: Gulf of America, Oct 21 rally, counts as said | 2 times: Gulf of America, Oct 22 rally, counts as said | 7 times: Gulf of America, Oct 23 rally, counts as said | 6/1060% | 30/4862% | 56%n=48 from settlement history | 84¢ Kalshi |
| Marjorie | Not listed: Marjorie, Oct 13 rally | Not listed: Marjorie, Oct 14 rally | Not listed: Marjorie, Oct 14 rally | Settled yes: Marjorie, Oct 16 rally | Not listed: Marjorie, Oct 17 rally | Not listed: Marjorie, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Marjorie, Oct 20 rally | Not listed: Marjorie, Oct 21 rally | Not listed: Marjorie, Oct 22 rally | Not listed: Marjorie, Oct 23 rally | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability | 62¢ Kalshi |
| Transgender7+ times | Not listed: Transgender 7+ times, Oct 13 rally | Not listed: Transgender 7+ times, Oct 14 rally | Not listed: Transgender 7+ times, Oct 14 rally | Not listed: Transgender 7+ times, Oct 16 rally | Not listed: Transgender 7+ times, Oct 17 rally | Not listed: Transgender 7+ times, Oct 19 rally | Settled no: Transgender 7+ times, Oct 20 rally | 13 times: Transgender 7+ times, Oct 21 rally, counts as said | 8 times: Transgender 7+ times, Oct 22 rally, counts as said | Not listed: Transgender 7+ times, Oct 23 rally | 2/367% | 2/367% | 56%n=3 from settlement history | 62¢ Polymarket |
| Million / Billion / Trillion30+ times | Not listed: Million / Billion / Trillion 30+ times, Oct 13 rally | Not listed: Million / Billion / Trillion 30+ times, Oct 14 rally | Not listed: Million / Billion / Trillion 30+ times, Oct 14 rally | Not listed: Million / Billion / Trillion 30+ times, Oct 16 rally | Not listed: Million / Billion / Trillion 30+ times, Oct 17 rally | Not listed: Million / Billion / Trillion 30+ times, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Million / Billion / Trillion 30+ times, Oct 20 rally | Not listed: Million / Billion / Trillion 30+ times, Oct 21 rally | Not listed: Million / Billion / Trillion 30+ times, Oct 22 rally | Not listed: Million / Billion / Trillion 30+ times, Oct 23 rally | – | 5/956% | 54%n=9 from settlement history | 52¢ Polymarket |
| Hormuz / Blockade | Not listed: Hormuz / Blockade, Oct 13 rally | Not listed: Hormuz / Blockade, Oct 14 rally | Not listed: Hormuz / Blockade, Oct 14 rally | Settled yes: Hormuz / Blockade, Oct 16 rally | Settled no: Hormuz / Blockade, Oct 17 rally | Settled no: Hormuz / Blockade, Oct 19 rally | Settled no: Hormuz / Blockade, Oct 20 rally | 1 time: Hormuz / Blockade, Oct 21 rally, counts as said | 2 times: Hormuz / Blockade, Oct 22 rally, counts as said | 2 times: Hormuz / Blockade, Oct 23 rally, counts as said | 4/757% | 4/757% | 53%n=7 from settlement history | 80¢ Polymarket |
| Ass | Not listed: Ass, Oct 13 rally | Not listed: Ass, Oct 14 rally | Not listed: Ass, Oct 14 rally | Settled yes: Ass, Oct 16 rally | Settled yes: Ass, Oct 17 rally | Settled no: Ass, Oct 19 rally | Settled yes: Ass, Oct 20 rally | 0 times: Ass, Oct 21 rally | 0 times: Ass, Oct 22 rally | 0 times: Ass, Oct 23 rally | 3/743% | 14/2752% | 49%n=27 from settlement history | 40¢ Polymarket |
| Blockade | Settled no: Blockade, Oct 13 rally | Settled yes: Blockade, Oct 14 rally | Settled no: Blockade, Oct 14 rally | Settled yes: Blockade, Oct 16 rally | Settled no: Blockade, Oct 17 rally | Not listed: Blockade, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Blockade, Oct 20 rally | 1 time: Blockade, Oct 21 rally, counts as said | 2 times: Blockade, Oct 22 rally, counts as said | 2 times: Blockade, Oct 23 rally, counts as said | 5/862% | 20/3951% | 49%n=39 from settlement history | 86¢ Kalshi |
| Tax33+ times | Not listed: Tax 33+ times, Oct 13 rally | Not listed: Tax 33+ times, Oct 14 rally | Not listed: Tax 33+ times, Oct 14 rally | Not listed: Tax 33+ times, Oct 16 rally | Not listed: Tax 33+ times, Oct 17 rally | Settled no: Tax 33+ times, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Tax 33+ times, Oct 20 rally | Not listed: Tax 33+ times, Oct 21 rally | 34 times: Tax 33+ times, Oct 22 rally, counts as said | Not listed: Tax 33+ times, Oct 23 rally | 1/250% | 1/250% | 49%n=2 from settlement history | 37¢ Polymarket |
| Bordernew 22+ times | Not listed: Border 22+ times, Oct 13 rally | Not listed: Border 22+ times, Oct 14 rally | Not listed: Border 22+ times, Oct 14 rally | Not listed: Border 22+ times, Oct 16 rally | Not listed: Border 22+ times, Oct 17 rally | Not listed: Border 22+ times, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Border 22+ times, Oct 20 rally | Not listed: Border 22+ times, Oct 21 rally | Not listed: Border 22+ times, Oct 22 rally | Not listed: Border 22+ times, Oct 23 rally | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 48¢ Polymarket |
| SI / Super Intelligence | Not listed: SI / Super Intelligence, Oct 13 rally | Not listed: SI / Super Intelligence, Oct 14 rally | Not listed: SI / Super Intelligence, Oct 14 rally | Settled yes: SI / Super Intelligence, Oct 16 rally | Settled yes: SI / Super Intelligence, Oct 17 rally | Settled yes: SI / Super Intelligence, Oct 19 rally | Settled no: SI / Super Intelligence, Oct 20 rally | 5 times: SI / Super Intelligence, Oct 21 rally, counts as said | 0 times: SI / Super Intelligence, Oct 22 rally | 0 times: SI / Super Intelligence, Oct 23 rally | 4/757% | 7/1644% | 47%n=16 from settlement history | 62¢ Polymarket |
| Stock Market | Not listed: Stock Market, Oct 13 rally | Not listed: Stock Market, Oct 14 rally | Not listed: Stock Market, Oct 14 rally | Not listed: Stock Market, Oct 16 rally | Not listed: Stock Market, Oct 17 rally | Not listed: Stock Market, Oct 19 rally | Settled yes: Stock Market, Oct 20 rally | Not listed: Stock Market, Oct 21 rally | 1 time: Stock Market, Oct 22 rally, counts as said | 1 time: Stock Market, Oct 23 rally, counts as said | 3/3100% | 94/18950% | 47%n=189 from settlement history | 94¢ Kalshi |
| Keisha Lance Bottomsnew | Not listed: Keisha Lance Bottoms, Oct 13 rally | Not listed: Keisha Lance Bottoms, Oct 14 rally | Not listed: Keisha Lance Bottoms, Oct 14 rally | Not listed: Keisha Lance Bottoms, Oct 16 rally | Not listed: Keisha Lance Bottoms, Oct 17 rally | Not listed: Keisha Lance Bottoms, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Keisha Lance Bottoms, Oct 20 rally | Not listed: Keisha Lance Bottoms, Oct 21 rally | Not listed: Keisha Lance Bottoms, Oct 22 rally | Not listed: Keisha Lance Bottoms, Oct 23 rally | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 76¢ Kalshi |
| Hormuz | Settled no: Hormuz, Oct 13 rally | Settled yes: Hormuz, Oct 14 rally | Settled no: Hormuz, Oct 14 rally | Settled yes: Hormuz, Oct 16 rally | Settled no: Hormuz, Oct 17 rally | Settled no: Hormuz, Oct 19 rally | Settled no: Hormuz, Oct 20 rally | 0 times: Hormuz, Oct 21 rally (our count 0 (needs 1) · the market settled yes) | 0 times: Hormuz, Oct 22 rally (our count 0 (needs 1) · the market settled yes) | 0 times: Hormuz, Oct 23 rally (our count 0 (needs 1) · the market settled yes) | 2/1020% | 38/10237% | 46%n=102 from settlement history | 84¢ Kalshi |
| Hell15+ times | Settled no: Hell 15+ times, Oct 13 rally | Not listed: Hell 15+ times, Oct 14 rally | Not listed: Hell 15+ times, Oct 14 rally | Not listed: Hell 15+ times, Oct 16 rally | Settled yes: Hell 15+ times, Oct 17 rally | Settled no: Hell 15+ times, Oct 19 rally | Settled no: Hell 15+ times, Oct 20 rally | 21 times: Hell 15+ times, Oct 21 rally, counts as said | 16 times: Hell 15+ times, Oct 22 rally, counts as said | 7 times: Hell 15+ times, Oct 23 rally, below the threshold | 3/743% | 3/743% | 44%n=7 from settlement history | 50¢ Polymarket |
| Hottest | Not listed: Hottest, Oct 13 rally | Not listed: Hottest, Oct 14 rally | Not listed: Hottest, Oct 14 rally | Not listed: Hottest, Oct 16 rally | Not listed: Hottest, Oct 17 rally | Not listed: Hottest, Oct 19 rally | Settled yes: Hottest, Oct 20 rally | Not listed: Hottest, Oct 21 rally | 3 times: Hottest, Oct 22 rally, counts as said | 2 times: Hottest, Oct 23 rally, counts as said | 3/3100% | 178/35051% | 44%n=347 from settlement history | 94¢ Kalshi |
| Two Percentnew | Not listed: Two Percent, Oct 13 rally | Not listed: Two Percent, Oct 14 rally | Not listed: Two Percent, Oct 14 rally | Not listed: Two Percent, Oct 16 rally | Not listed: Two Percent, Oct 17 rally | Not listed: Two Percent, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Two Percent, Oct 20 rally | Not listed: Two Percent, Oct 21 rally | Not listed: Two Percent, Oct 22 rally | Not listed: Two Percent, Oct 23 rally | – | – | 43%n=2 from settlement history | 34¢ Polymarket |
| Hyundai | Not listed: Hyundai, Oct 13 rally | Not listed: Hyundai, Oct 14 rally | Not listed: Hyundai, Oct 14 rally | Not listed: Hyundai, Oct 16 rally | Not listed: Hyundai, Oct 17 rally | Not listed: Hyundai, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Hyundai, Oct 20 rally | Not listed: Hyundai, Oct 21 rally | Not listed: Hyundai, Oct 22 rally | Not listed: Hyundai, Oct 23 rally | – | 2/540% | 42%n=5 from settlement history | 60¢ Kalshi |
| Laken Riley Act | Not listed: Laken Riley Act, Oct 13 rally | Not listed: Laken Riley Act, Oct 14 rally | Not listed: Laken Riley Act, Oct 14 rally | Settled no: Laken Riley Act, Oct 16 rally | Not listed: Laken Riley Act, Oct 17 rally | Not listed: Laken Riley Act, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Laken Riley Act, Oct 20 rally | Not listed: Laken Riley Act, Oct 21 rally | Not listed: Laken Riley Act, Oct 22 rally | Not listed: Laken Riley Act, Oct 23 rally | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability | 32¢ Polymarket |
| America First | Settled no: America First, Oct 13 rally | Settled no: America First, Oct 14 rally | Settled no: America First, Oct 14 rally | Settled no: America First, Oct 16 rally | Settled no: America First, Oct 17 rally | Settled no: America First, Oct 19 rally | Settled no: America First, Oct 20 rally | 1 time: America First, Oct 21 rally, counts as said | 1 time: America First, Oct 22 rally, counts as said | 1 time: America First, Oct 23 rally, counts as said | 3/1030% | 36/11132% | 39%n=111 from settlement history | 76¢ Kalshi |
| Israel / Israeli | Settled no: Israel / Israeli, Oct 13 rally | Settled no: Israel / Israeli, Oct 14 rally | Settled no: Israel / Israeli, Oct 14 rally | Settled yes: Israel / Israeli, Oct 16 rally | Settled no: Israel / Israeli, Oct 17 rally | Not listed: Israel / Israeli, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Israel / Israeli, Oct 20 rally | 3 times: Israel / Israeli, Oct 21 rally, counts as said | 0 times: Israel / Israeli, Oct 22 rally | 0 times: Israel / Israeli, Oct 23 rally | 2/825% | 55/11448% | 37%n=114 from settlement history | 26¢ Kalshi |
| Drill Baby Drill | Settled no: Drill Baby Drill, Oct 13 rally | Settled yes: Drill Baby Drill, Oct 14 rally | Settled no: Drill Baby Drill, Oct 14 rally | Settled no: Drill Baby Drill, Oct 16 rally | Settled no: Drill Baby Drill, Oct 17 rally | Not listed: Drill Baby Drill, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Drill Baby Drill, Oct 20 rally | 3 times: Drill Baby Drill, Oct 21 rally, counts as said | 0 times: Drill Baby Drill, Oct 22 rally | 0 times: Drill Baby Drill, Oct 23 rally | 2/825% | 54/11846% | 31%n=118 from settlement history | 28¢ Kalshi |
| Rigged Electionnever said | Not listed: Rigged Election, Oct 13 rally | Not listed: Rigged Election, Oct 14 rally | Not listed: Rigged Election, Oct 14 rally | Not listed: Rigged Election, Oct 16 rally | Not listed: Rigged Election, Oct 17 rally | Not listed: Rigged Election, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Rigged Election, Oct 20 rally | Not listed: Rigged Election, Oct 21 rally | Not listed: Rigged Election, Oct 22 rally | Not listed: Rigged Election, Oct 23 rally | – | 0/100% | 28%n=10 from settlement history | 54¢ Kalshi |
| Filibuster | Not listed: Filibuster, Oct 13 rally | Not listed: Filibuster, Oct 14 rally | Not listed: Filibuster, Oct 14 rally | Not listed: Filibuster, Oct 16 rally | Not listed: Filibuster, Oct 17 rally | Not listed: Filibuster, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Filibuster, Oct 20 rally | 0 times: Filibuster, Oct 21 rally | 0 times: Filibuster, Oct 22 rally | 0 times: Filibuster, Oct 23 rally | 0/30% | 10/2638% | 26%n=26 from settlement history | 14¢ Polymarket |
| Fentanyl / Deport / Deported | Not listed: Fentanyl / Deport / Deported, Oct 13 rally | Not listed: Fentanyl / Deport / Deported, Oct 14 rally | Not listed: Fentanyl / Deport / Deported, Oct 14 rally | Settled no: Fentanyl / Deport / Deported, Oct 16 rally | Settled yes: Fentanyl / Deport / Deported, Oct 17 rally | Settled no: Fentanyl / Deport / Deported, Oct 19 rally | Settled no: Fentanyl / Deport / Deported, Oct 20 rally | 0 times: Fentanyl / Deport / Deported, Oct 21 rally | 0 times: Fentanyl / Deport / Deported, Oct 22 rally | 0 times: Fentanyl / Deport / Deported, Oct 23 rally | 1/714% | 1/714% | 26%n=7 from settlement history | 26¢ Polymarket |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Settled no: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Oct 13 rally | Settled yes: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Oct 14 rally | Settled no: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Oct 14 rally | Settled yes: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Oct 16 rally | Settled no: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Oct 17 rally | Settled no: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Oct 19 rally | Settled no: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Oct 20 rally | 2 times: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Oct 21 rally, counts as said | 2 times: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Oct 22 rally, counts as said (our count 2 · the market settled no) | 0 times: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Oct 23 rally | 4/1040% | 96/27435% | 26%n=274 from settlement history | 22¢ Kalshi |
| Data Center | Settled no: Data Center, Oct 13 rally | Settled no: Data Center, Oct 14 rally | Settled no: Data Center, Oct 14 rally | Settled no: Data Center, Oct 16 rally | Settled no: Data Center, Oct 17 rally | Not listed: Data Center, Oct 19 rally | Settled no: Data Center, Oct 20 rally | 2 times: Data Center, Oct 21 rally, counts as said | 0 times: Data Center, Oct 22 rally | 0 times: Data Center, Oct 23 rally | 1/911% | 5/3315% | 23%n=33 from settlement history | 12¢ Polymarket |
| Fentanyl | Settled no: Fentanyl, Oct 13 rally | Settled yes: Fentanyl, Oct 14 rally | Settled no: Fentanyl, Oct 14 rally | Settled no: Fentanyl, Oct 16 rally | Settled yes: Fentanyl, Oct 17 rally | Settled no: Fentanyl, Oct 19 rally | Settled no: Fentanyl, Oct 20 rally | 0 times: Fentanyl, Oct 21 rally | 0 times: Fentanyl, Oct 22 rally | 0 times: Fentanyl, Oct 23 rally | 2/1020% | 16/6923% | 19%n=68 from settlement history | 12¢ Kalshi |
| Deport / Deported / Deportation | Settled no: Deport / Deported / Deportation, Oct 13 rally | Settled no: Deport / Deported / Deportation, Oct 14 rally | Settled no: Deport / Deported / Deportation, Oct 14 rally | Settled no: Deport / Deported / Deportation, Oct 16 rally | Settled yes: Deport / Deported / Deportation, Oct 17 rally | Settled no: Deport / Deported / Deportation, Oct 19 rally | Settled no: Deport / Deported / Deportation, Oct 20 rally | 0 times: Deport / Deported / Deportation, Oct 21 rally | 0 times: Deport / Deported / Deportation, Oct 22 rally | 0 times: Deport / Deported / Deportation, Oct 23 rally | 1/1010% | 3/2015% | 14%n=20 from settlement history | 12¢ Kalshi |
| Fraudnever said 3+ times | Settled no: Fraud (3+ times), Oct 13 rally | Settled no: Fraud (3+ times), Oct 14 rally | Settled no: Fraud (3+ times), Oct 14 rally | Settled no: Fraud (3+ times), Oct 16 rally | Settled no: Fraud (3+ times), Oct 17 rally | Settled no: Fraud (3+ times), Oct 19 rally | Settled no: Fraud (3+ times), Oct 20 rally | 1 time: Fraud (3+ times), Oct 21 rally, below the threshold | 2 times: Fraud (3+ times), Oct 22 rally, below the threshold | 2 times: Fraud (3+ times), Oct 23 rally, below the threshold | 0/100% | 0/120% | 10%n=12 from settlement history | 25¢ Kalshi |
| Peace in the Middle East | Settled no: Peace in the Middle East, Oct 13 rally | Settled no: Peace in the Middle East, Oct 14 rally | Settled no: Peace in the Middle East, Oct 14 rally | Settled no: Peace in the Middle East, Oct 16 rally | Settled no: Peace in the Middle East, Oct 17 rally | Not listed: Peace in the Middle East, Oct 19 rally | Settled no: Peace in the Middle East, Oct 20 rally | 0 times: Peace in the Middle East, Oct 21 rally | 0 times: Peace in the Middle East, Oct 22 rally | 0 times: Peace in the Middle East, Oct 23 rally | 0/90% | 9/5616% | 7%n=56 from settlement history | 2¢ Kalshi |
| Ceasefire | Settled no: Ceasefire, Oct 13 rally | Settled no: Ceasefire, Oct 14 rally | Settled no: Ceasefire, Oct 14 rally | Settled no: Ceasefire, Oct 16 rally | Settled no: Ceasefire, Oct 17 rally | Settled no: Ceasefire, Oct 19 rally | Settled no: Ceasefire, Oct 20 rally | 0 times: Ceasefire, Oct 21 rally | 0 times: Ceasefire, Oct 22 rally | 0 times: Ceasefire, Oct 23 rally | 0/100% | 19/13314% | 6%n=133 from settlement history | 8¢ Kalshi |
| Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency | Settled no: Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency, Oct 13 rally | Settled no: Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency, Oct 14 rally | Settled no: Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency, Oct 14 rally | Settled no: Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency, Oct 16 rally | Settled no: Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency, Oct 17 rally | Settled no: Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency, Oct 19 rally | Settled no: Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency, Oct 20 rally | 0 times: Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency, Oct 21 rally | 0 times: Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency, Oct 22 rally | 0 times: Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency, Oct 23 rally | 0/100% | 2/633% | 4%n=63 from settlement history | 3¢ Polymarket |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | Settled no: Crypto / Bitcoin, Oct 13 rally | Settled no: Crypto / Bitcoin, Oct 14 rally | Settled no: Crypto / Bitcoin, Oct 14 rally | Settled no: Crypto / Bitcoin, Oct 16 rally | Settled no: Crypto / Bitcoin, Oct 17 rally | Settled no: Crypto / Bitcoin, Oct 19 rally | Settled no: Crypto / Bitcoin, Oct 20 rally | 0 times: Crypto / Bitcoin, Oct 21 rally | 0 times: Crypto / Bitcoin, Oct 22 rally | 0 times: Crypto / Bitcoin, Oct 23 rally | 0/100% | 56/53111% | 4%n=529 from settlement history | 2¢ Kalshi |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 23, 2026 15:32 UTC.
Every word
1–40 of 4,109, most settled first · page 1 of 42| Word | Oct 18posts window | Oct 18weekly window | Oct 19rally | Oct 19remarks | Oct 20rally | Oct 20remarks | Oct 21rally | Oct 21remarks | Oct 22rally | Oct 23latest | Last 10 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Not listed: Biden, Oct 18 posts window | Not listed: Biden, Oct 18 weekly window | Not listed: Biden, Oct 19 rally | Settled no: Biden, Oct 19 remarks | Not listed: Biden, Oct 20 rally | 4 times: Biden, Oct 20 remarks, counts as said | Not listed: Biden, Oct 21 rally | 1 time: Biden, Oct 21 remarks, counts as said | Not listed: Biden, Oct 22 rally | Not listed: Biden, Oct 23 rally | 2/367% | 249/36468% | 60%n=362 from settlement history |
| Tariff | Not listed: Tariff, Oct 18 posts window | Not listed: Tariff, Oct 18 weekly window | Not listed: Tariff, Oct 19 rally | Settled no: Tariff, Oct 19 remarks | Not listed: Tariff, Oct 20 rally | 0 times: Tariff, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: Tariff, Oct 21 rally | 0 times: Tariff, Oct 21 remarks | Not listed: Tariff, Oct 22 rally | Not listed: Tariff, Oct 23 rally | 0/30% | 156/25561% | 54%n=254 from settlement history |
| Democrat | Not listed: Democrat, Oct 18 posts window | Not listed: Democrat, Oct 18 weekly window | Not listed: Democrat, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Democrat, Oct 19 remarks | Not listed: Democrat, Oct 20 rally | Not listed: Democrat, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: Democrat, Oct 21 rally | Not listed: Democrat, Oct 21 remarks | Not listed: Democrat, Oct 22 rally | Not listed: Democrat, Oct 23 rally | – | 146/22365% | 64%n=222 from settlement history |
| Nuclear | Not listed: Nuclear, Oct 18 posts window | Not listed: Nuclear, Oct 18 weekly window | Not listed: Nuclear, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Nuclear, Oct 19 remarks | Not listed: Nuclear, Oct 20 rally | 3 times: Nuclear, Oct 20 remarks, counts as said | Not listed: Nuclear, Oct 21 rally | 0 times: Nuclear, Oct 21 remarks | Not listed: Nuclear, Oct 22 rally | Not listed: Nuclear, Oct 23 rally | 1/250% | 136/19968% | 59%n=199 from settlement history |
| Fake News | Not listed: Fake News, Oct 18 posts window | Not listed: Fake News, Oct 18 weekly window | Not listed: Fake News, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Fake News, Oct 19 remarks | Not listed: Fake News, Oct 20 rally | 0 times: Fake News, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: Fake News, Oct 21 rally | Not listed: Fake News, Oct 21 remarks | Not listed: Fake News, Oct 22 rally | Not listed: Fake News, Oct 23 rally | 0/10% | 106/18956% | 55%n=189 from settlement history |
| China | 1 time: China, Oct 18 posts window, counts as said | Not listed: China, Oct 18 weekly window | Not listed: China, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: China, Oct 19 remarks | Not listed: China, Oct 20 rally | Not listed: China, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: China, Oct 21 rally | 4 times: China, Oct 21 remarks, counts as said | Not listed: China, Oct 22 rally | Not listed: China, Oct 23 rally | 2/2100% | 125/18767% | 81%n=187 from settlement history |
| Epstein | Not listed: Epstein, Oct 18 posts window | Not listed: Epstein, Oct 18 weekly window | Not listed: Epstein, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Epstein, Oct 19 remarks | Not listed: Epstein, Oct 20 rally | Not listed: Epstein, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: Epstein, Oct 21 rally | Not listed: Epstein, Oct 21 remarks | Not listed: Epstein, Oct 22 rally | Not listed: Epstein, Oct 23 rally | – | 30/14121% | 23%n=141 from settlement history |
| Election | Not listed: Election, Oct 18 posts window | Not listed: Election, Oct 18 weekly window | Not listed: Election, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Election, Oct 19 remarks | Not listed: Election, Oct 20 rally | Not listed: Election, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: Election, Oct 21 rally | Not listed: Election, Oct 21 remarks | Not listed: Election, Oct 22 rally | Not listed: Election, Oct 23 rally | – | 80/13460% | 38%n=134 from settlement history |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Oct 18 posts window | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Oct 18 weekly window | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Oct 19 remarks | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Oct 20 rally | 2 times: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Oct 20 remarks, counts as said | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Oct 21 rally | 0 times: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Oct 21 remarks | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Oct 22 rally | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Oct 23 rally | 1/250% | 82/13063% | 52%n=129 from settlement history |
| Iran | 5 times: Iran, Oct 18 posts window, counts as said | Not listed: Iran, Oct 18 weekly window | Not listed: Iran, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Iran, Oct 19 remarks | Not listed: Iran, Oct 20 rally | Not listed: Iran, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: Iran, Oct 21 rally | Not listed: Iran, Oct 21 remarks | Not listed: Iran, Oct 22 rally | Not listed: Iran, Oct 23 rally | 1/1100% | 83/12467% | 69%n=124 from settlement history |
| Border | Not listed: Border, Oct 18 posts window | Not listed: Border, Oct 18 weekly window | Not listed: Border, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Border, Oct 19 remarks | Not listed: Border, Oct 20 rally | Not listed: Border, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: Border, Oct 21 rally | Not listed: Border, Oct 21 remarks | Not listed: Border, Oct 22 rally | Not listed: Border, Oct 23 rally | – | 77/12363% | 64%n=122 from settlement history |
| Ballroom | Not listed: Ballroom, Oct 18 posts window | Not listed: Ballroom, Oct 18 weekly window | Not listed: Ballroom, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Ballroom, Oct 19 remarks | Not listed: Ballroom, Oct 20 rally | Not listed: Ballroom, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: Ballroom, Oct 21 rally | Not listed: Ballroom, Oct 21 remarks | Not listed: Ballroom, Oct 22 rally | Not listed: Ballroom, Oct 23 rally | – | 51/11943% | 36%n=117 from settlement history |
| Communist / Communism | Not listed: Communist / Communism, Oct 18 posts window | Not listed: Communist / Communism, Oct 18 weekly window | Not listed: Communist / Communism, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Communist / Communism, Oct 19 remarks | Not listed: Communist / Communism, Oct 20 rally | Not listed: Communist / Communism, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: Communist / Communism, Oct 21 rally | Not listed: Communist / Communism, Oct 21 remarks | Not listed: Communist / Communism, Oct 22 rally | Not listed: Communist / Communism, Oct 23 rally | – | 56/11449% | 45%n=114 from settlement history |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Oct 18 posts window | Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Oct 18 weekly window | Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Oct 19 rally | Settled no: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Oct 19 remarks | Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Oct 20 rally | 1 time: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Oct 20 remarks, counts as said (our count 1 · the market settled no) | Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Oct 21 rally | 0 times: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Oct 21 remarks | Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Oct 22 rally | Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Oct 23 rally | 1/333% | 33/11429% | 31%n=114 from settlement history |
| Radical Left | Not listed: Radical Left, Oct 18 posts window | Not listed: Radical Left, Oct 18 weekly window | Not listed: Radical Left, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Radical Left, Oct 19 remarks | Not listed: Radical Left, Oct 20 rally | Not listed: Radical Left, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: Radical Left, Oct 21 rally | Not listed: Radical Left, Oct 21 remarks | Not listed: Radical Left, Oct 22 rally | Not listed: Radical Left, Oct 23 rally | – | 56/11350% | 48%n=112 from settlement history |
| Oil | Not listed: Oil, Oct 18 posts window | Not listed: Oil, Oct 18 weekly window | Not listed: Oil, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Oil, Oct 19 remarks | Not listed: Oil, Oct 20 rally | Not listed: Oil, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: Oil, Oct 21 rally | Not listed: Oil, Oct 21 remarks | Not listed: Oil, Oct 22 rally | Not listed: Oil, Oct 23 rally | – | 72/11165% | 66%n=111 from settlement history |
| Trillion | Not listed: Trillion, Oct 18 posts window | Not listed: Trillion, Oct 18 weekly window | Not listed: Trillion, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Trillion, Oct 19 remarks | Not listed: Trillion, Oct 20 rally | Not listed: Trillion, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: Trillion, Oct 21 rally | Not listed: Trillion, Oct 21 remarks | Not listed: Trillion, Oct 22 rally | Not listed: Trillion, Oct 23 rally | – | 72/10767% | 63%n=106 from settlement history |
| Ukraine | Not listed: Ukraine, Oct 18 posts window | Not listed: Ukraine, Oct 18 weekly window | Not listed: Ukraine, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Ukraine, Oct 19 remarks | Not listed: Ukraine, Oct 20 rally | 13 times: Ukraine, Oct 20 remarks, counts as said | Not listed: Ukraine, Oct 21 rally | 2 times: Ukraine, Oct 21 remarks, counts as said | Not listed: Ukraine, Oct 22 rally | Not listed: Ukraine, Oct 23 rally | 2/2100% | 58/10655% | 41%n=106 from settlement history |
| Fraud | Not listed: Fraud, Oct 18 posts window | Not listed: Fraud, Oct 18 weekly window | Not listed: Fraud, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Fraud, Oct 19 remarks | Not listed: Fraud, Oct 20 rally | 30 times: Fraud, Oct 20 remarks, counts as said | Not listed: Fraud, Oct 21 rally | 7 times: Fraud, Oct 21 remarks, counts as said | Not listed: Fraud, Oct 22 rally | Not listed: Fraud, Oct 23 rally | 2/2100% | 47/10644% | 44%n=105 from settlement history |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | Not listed: MAGA / Make America Great Again, Oct 18 posts window | Not listed: MAGA / Make America Great Again, Oct 18 weekly window | Not listed: MAGA / Make America Great Again, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: MAGA / Make America Great Again, Oct 19 remarks | Not listed: MAGA / Make America Great Again, Oct 20 rally | Not listed: MAGA / Make America Great Again, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: MAGA / Make America Great Again, Oct 21 rally | Not listed: MAGA / Make America Great Again, Oct 21 remarks | Not listed: MAGA / Make America Great Again, Oct 22 rally | Not listed: MAGA / Make America Great Again, Oct 23 rally | – | 54/10452% | 43%n=104 from settlement history |
| China / Chinese | Not listed: China / Chinese, Oct 18 posts window | Not listed: China / Chinese, Oct 18 weekly window | Not listed: China / Chinese, Oct 19 rally | Settled yes: China / Chinese, Oct 19 remarks | Not listed: China / Chinese, Oct 20 rally | 1 time: China / Chinese, Oct 20 remarks, counts as said | 5 times: China / Chinese, Oct 21 rally, counts as said | 4 times: China / Chinese, Oct 21 remarks, counts as said | Not listed: China / Chinese, Oct 22 rally | Not listed: China / Chinese, Oct 23 rally | 4/4100% | 68/10267% | 61%n=102 from settlement history |
| NATO | Not listed: NATO, Oct 18 posts window | Not listed: NATO, Oct 18 weekly window | Settled yes: NATO, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: NATO, Oct 19 remarks | Not listed: NATO, Oct 20 rally | Not listed: NATO, Oct 20 remarks | 0 times: NATO, Oct 21 rally | Not listed: NATO, Oct 21 remarks | Not listed: NATO, Oct 22 rally | Not listed: NATO, Oct 23 rally | 1/250% | 41/9842% | 40%n=98 from settlement history |
| Melania | Not listed: Melania, Oct 18 posts window | Not listed: Melania, Oct 18 weekly window | Not listed: Melania, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Melania, Oct 19 remarks | Not listed: Melania, Oct 20 rally | Not listed: Melania, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: Melania, Oct 21 rally | Not listed: Melania, Oct 21 remarks | Not listed: Melania, Oct 22 rally | Not listed: Melania, Oct 23 rally | – | 56/8764% | 72%n=87 from settlement history |
| Russia | 11 times: Russia, Oct 18 posts window, counts as said | Not listed: Russia, Oct 18 weekly window | Not listed: Russia, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Russia, Oct 19 remarks | Not listed: Russia, Oct 20 rally | Not listed: Russia, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: Russia, Oct 21 rally | Not listed: Russia, Oct 21 remarks | Not listed: Russia, Oct 22 rally | Not listed: Russia, Oct 23 rally | 1/1100% | 54/8762% | 72%n=87 from settlement history |
| Putin | 0 times: Putin, Oct 18 posts window | Not listed: Putin, Oct 18 weekly window | Not listed: Putin, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Putin, Oct 19 remarks | Not listed: Putin, Oct 20 rally | Not listed: Putin, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: Putin, Oct 21 rally | Not listed: Putin, Oct 21 remarks | Not listed: Putin, Oct 22 rally | Not listed: Putin, Oct 23 rally | 0/10% | 46/8753% | 37%n=86 from settlement history |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Oct 18 posts window | Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Oct 18 weekly window | Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Oct 19 remarks | Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Oct 20 rally | Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Oct 21 rally | Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Oct 21 remarks | Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Oct 22 rally | Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Oct 23 rally | – | 30/8734% | 35%n=86 from settlement history |
| Six Seven | Not listed: Six Seven, Oct 18 posts window | Not listed: Six Seven, Oct 18 weekly window | Not listed: Six Seven, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Six Seven, Oct 19 remarks | Not listed: Six Seven, Oct 20 rally | Not listed: Six Seven, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: Six Seven, Oct 21 rally | Not listed: Six Seven, Oct 21 remarks | Not listed: Six Seven, Oct 22 rally | Not listed: Six Seven, Oct 23 rally | – | 23/8427% | 43%n=84 from settlement history |
| Newscum | Not listed: Newscum, Oct 18 posts window | Not listed: Newscum, Oct 18 weekly window | Not listed: Newscum, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Newscum, Oct 19 remarks | Not listed: Newscum, Oct 20 rally | Not listed: Newscum, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: Newscum, Oct 21 rally | Not listed: Newscum, Oct 21 remarks | Not listed: Newscum, Oct 22 rally | Not listed: Newscum, Oct 23 rally | – | 45/8156% | 50%n=81 from settlement history |
| Eight Wars | Not listed: Eight Wars, Oct 18 posts window | Not listed: Eight Wars, Oct 18 weekly window | Not listed: Eight Wars, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Eight Wars, Oct 19 remarks | Not listed: Eight Wars, Oct 20 rally | Not listed: Eight Wars, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: Eight Wars, Oct 21 rally | Not listed: Eight Wars, Oct 21 remarks | Not listed: Eight Wars, Oct 22 rally | Not listed: Eight Wars, Oct 23 rally | – | 42/8052% | 53%n=80 from settlement history |
| Trump | Not listed: Trump, Oct 18 posts window | Not listed: Trump, Oct 18 weekly window | Not listed: Trump, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Trump, Oct 19 remarks | Not listed: Trump, Oct 20 rally | Not listed: Trump, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: Trump, Oct 21 rally | Not listed: Trump, Oct 21 remarks | Not listed: Trump, Oct 22 rally | Not listed: Trump, Oct 23 rally | – | 45/7758% | 46%n=76 from settlement history |
| Israel | Not listed: Israel, Oct 18 posts window | Not listed: Israel, Oct 18 weekly window | Not listed: Israel, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Israel, Oct 19 remarks | Not listed: Israel, Oct 20 rally | Not listed: Israel, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: Israel, Oct 21 rally | Not listed: Israel, Oct 21 remarks | Not listed: Israel, Oct 22 rally | Not listed: Israel, Oct 23 rally | – | 42/7655% | 52%n=76 from settlement history |
| Windmill | Not listed: Windmill, Oct 18 posts window | Not listed: Windmill, Oct 18 weekly window | Settled no: Windmill, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Windmill, Oct 19 remarks | Settled no: Windmill, Oct 20 rally | Not listed: Windmill, Oct 20 remarks | 0 times: Windmill, Oct 21 rally | Not listed: Windmill, Oct 21 remarks | Not listed: Windmill, Oct 22 rally | Not listed: Windmill, Oct 23 rally | 0/30% | 33/7445% | 30%n=74 from settlement history |
| Bibi / Netanyahu | Not listed: Bibi / Netanyahu, Oct 18 posts window | Not listed: Bibi / Netanyahu, Oct 18 weekly window | Not listed: Bibi / Netanyahu, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Bibi / Netanyahu, Oct 19 remarks | Not listed: Bibi / Netanyahu, Oct 20 rally | Not listed: Bibi / Netanyahu, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: Bibi / Netanyahu, Oct 21 rally | Not listed: Bibi / Netanyahu, Oct 21 remarks | Not listed: Bibi / Netanyahu, Oct 22 rally | Not listed: Bibi / Netanyahu, Oct 23 rally | – | 34/7247% | 62%n=72 from settlement history |
| Maduro | Not listed: Maduro, Oct 18 posts window | Not listed: Maduro, Oct 18 weekly window | Settled no: Maduro, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Maduro, Oct 19 remarks | Not listed: Maduro, Oct 20 rally | Not listed: Maduro, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: Maduro, Oct 21 rally | Not listed: Maduro, Oct 21 remarks | Not listed: Maduro, Oct 22 rally | Not listed: Maduro, Oct 23 rally | 0/10% | 32/7244% | 44%n=71 from settlement history |
| Affordable / Affordability | Not listed: Affordable / Affordability, Oct 18 posts window | Not listed: Affordable / Affordability, Oct 18 weekly window | Not listed: Affordable / Affordability, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Affordable / Affordability, Oct 19 remarks | Not listed: Affordable / Affordability, Oct 20 rally | Not listed: Affordable / Affordability, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: Affordable / Affordability, Oct 21 rally | Not listed: Affordable / Affordability, Oct 21 remarks | Not listed: Affordable / Affordability, Oct 22 rally | Not listed: Affordable / Affordability, Oct 23 rally | – | 29/7141% | 54%n=71 from settlement history |
| Elon / Musk | Not listed: Elon / Musk, Oct 18 posts window | Not listed: Elon / Musk, Oct 18 weekly window | Not listed: Elon / Musk, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Elon / Musk, Oct 19 remarks | Settled yes: Elon / Musk, Oct 20 rally | 2 times: Elon / Musk, Oct 20 remarks, counts as said | 2 times: Elon / Musk, Oct 21 rally, counts as said | 2 times: Elon / Musk, Oct 21 remarks, counts as said (our count 2 · the market settled no) | Not listed: Elon / Musk, Oct 22 rally | 5 times: Elon / Musk, Oct 23 rally, counts as said (our count 5 · the market settled no) | 5/5100% | 29/7041% | 44%n=70 from settlement history |
| Drone | Not listed: Drone, Oct 18 posts window | Not listed: Drone, Oct 18 weekly window | Not listed: Drone, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Drone, Oct 19 remarks | Not listed: Drone, Oct 20 rally | Not listed: Drone, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: Drone, Oct 21 rally | Not listed: Drone, Oct 21 remarks | Not listed: Drone, Oct 22 rally | Not listed: Drone, Oct 23 rally | – | 22/6932% | 40%n=69 from settlement history |
| Iran3+ times | Not listed: Iran (3+ times), Oct 18 posts window | Not listed: Iran (3+ times), Oct 18 weekly window | Not listed: Iran (3+ times), Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Iran (3+ times), Oct 19 remarks | Not listed: Iran (3+ times), Oct 20 rally | 4 times: Iran (3+ times), Oct 20 remarks, counts as said | Not listed: Iran (3+ times), Oct 21 rally | 3 times: Iran (3+ times), Oct 21 remarks, counts as said | Not listed: Iran (3+ times), Oct 22 rally | Not listed: Iran (3+ times), Oct 23 rally | 2/2100% | 50/6874% | 66%n=68 from settlement history |
| Healthcare | Not listed: Healthcare, Oct 18 posts window | Not listed: Healthcare, Oct 18 weekly window | Settled yes: Healthcare, Oct 19 rally | Settled yes: Healthcare, Oct 19 remarks | Settled yes: Healthcare, Oct 20 rally | 1 time: Healthcare, Oct 20 remarks, counts as said | Not listed: Healthcare, Oct 21 rally | 0 times: Healthcare, Oct 21 remarks | 0 times: Healthcare, Oct 22 rally | Not listed: Healthcare, Oct 23 rally | 4/667% | 39/6857% | 74%n=67 from settlement history |
| World Cup | Not listed: World Cup, Oct 18 posts window | Not listed: World Cup, Oct 18 weekly window | Not listed: World Cup, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: World Cup, Oct 19 remarks | Not listed: World Cup, Oct 20 rally | Not listed: World Cup, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: World Cup, Oct 21 rally | Not listed: World Cup, Oct 21 remarks | Not listed: World Cup, Oct 22 rally | Not listed: World Cup, Oct 23 rally | – | 28/6841% | 49%n=68 from settlement history |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 12Our transcript counts matched how 4,063 of 4,224 settled words resolved (96.2%). How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | RallyWhat will Trump say during his rally in Florida? | Captions · machine-attributed | 62 | 31 yes · 31 no | 59/61 (97%) |
| Oct 22, 2026 | RallyWhat will Trump say during his rally in Iowa? | Captions · machine-attributed | 60 | 33 yes · 27 no | 56/59 (95%) |
| Oct 21, 2026 | RallyWhat will Trump say during his rally in South Carolina? | Captions · machine-attributed | 65 | 35 yes · 30 no | 62/64 (97%) |
| Oct 21, 2026 | RemarksWhat will Trump say during his roundtable? | Speaker-labelled captions | 38 | 11 yes · 27 no | 35/37 (95%) |
| Oct 20, 2026 | RallyWhat will Trump say during his rally in North Carolina? | no transcript | 61 | 23 yes · 38 no | – |
| Oct 20, 2026 | RemarksWhat will Trump say during his announcement? | Speaker-labelled captions | 31 | 16 yes · 15 no | 29/30 (97%) |
| Oct 19, 2026 | RallyWhat will Trump say during his rally in Kansas? | no transcript | 56 | 22 yes · 34 no | – |
| Oct 19, 2026 | RemarksWhat will Trump say during his announcement? | no transcript | 26 | 5 yes · 21 no | – |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Weekly windowWhat will Trump say this week? | no transcript | 45 | 24 yes · 21 no | 12/12 (100%) |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Posts windowWhat will Trump post this week? (October 12 - October 18) | Official transcript | 11 | 5 yes · 6 no | 11/11 (100%) |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Weekly windowWhat will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18) | no transcript | 13 | 8 yes · 5 no | – |
| Oct 17, 2026 | RallyWhat will Trump say during his rally in Kentucky? | no transcript | 58 | 30 yes · 28 no | – |
Citeparrot.markets, “Donald Trump: mention market word history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/donald-trump · words: /api/v1/history?entity=donald-trump · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP