Will Scott Bessent say “Tariff”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Scott Bessent said “Tariff” at 17 of 24 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 15, 2025 (71%), most recently on Oct 18, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 61% (n=24, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 3 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 press briefings; Apr 29, 2025 – May 28, 2026), since fewer than 2 episodes have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.

61%from settlement history only · n=24counts: named speaker only
Last 10
7/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes yes yes yes no no yes yes
Streak
said the last 2 times
Counts
named speaker only
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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Scott Bessent

Tariff

Probability
61% · n=24
Settled
17/24 (71%)
Last 3 transcripts
said in 2 of 3

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (3 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Scott BessentspeakerPress Secretary Karoline Leavitt, Scott Bessent, and Kelly Loeffler Brief Members of the Media · Apr 15, 2026 · 28:27In transcript

I don't have an update on the tariffs, but I do have an update on sanctions. Iran used to be the largest state sponsor of…

Scott BessentspeakerPress Secretary Karoline Leavitt and Scott Bessent Brief Members of the Media, Apr. 29, 2025 · Apr 29, 2025 · 8:06In transcript

…it's a combination of both. So we're going to take in long-term tariff revenue. We put a process in place. We have 18 important trading…

What will Scott Bessent say during Meet the Press? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will Scott Bessent say during Special Report with Bret Baier? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will Scott Bessent say during RNC Midterm Convention? · settled no

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What will Scott Bessent say during his press conference? · settled no

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What will Scott Bessent say during the Faith & Freedom Coalition's Conference? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will Scott Bessent say during CNBC: Squawk Box? · settled yes

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What will Scott Bessent say during his Committee on Ways & Means hearing? · settled yes

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What will Scott Bessent say during the Treasury Budget Hearing? · settled yes

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What will Scott Bessent say during the Reagan National Economic Forum? · settled yes

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What will Scott Bessent say during the White House Press Briefing? · settled no

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Every settled listing

newest first · 25 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 18, 2026TariffKalshiYes–
Sep 23, 2026TariffKalshiYes–
Sep 10, 2026TariffKalshiNo–
Aug 24, 2026TariffKalshiNo–
Jun 26, 2026TariffKalshiYes–
Jun 24, 2026TariffKalshiYes–
Jun 4, 2026TariffKalshiYes–
Jun 3, 2026TariffKalshiYes–
May 29, 2026TariffKalshiYes–
May 28, 2026TariffKalshiNo–
May 14, 2026TariffKalshiYes–
Apr 26, 2026TariffKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Apr 22, 2026TariffKalshiNo–
Apr 15, 2026TariffKalshiYes1
Apr 15, 2026TariffKalshiYes–
Mar 22, 2026TariffKalshiNo–
Mar 7, 2026TariffKalshiNo–
Feb 21, 2026TariffKalshiYes–
Feb 14, 2026TariffKalshiNo–
Jan 22, 2026TariffKalshiYes–
Jan 21, 2026TariffKalshiYes–
Dec 8, 2025TariffKalshiYes–
Dec 4, 2025TariffKalshiYes–
Oct 16, 2025TariffKalshiYes–
Mar 15, 2025TariffKalshiYes–

Questions

How often does Scott Bessent say “Tariff”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Scott Bessent said “Tariff” at 17 of 24 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 15, 2025 (71%), most recently on Oct 18, 2026.
What is the probability Scott Bessent says “Tariff” next time?
61%, from settlement history (n=24). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Scott Bessent: ‘Tariff’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/scott-bessent/words/tariff (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=scott-bessent&word=tariff · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=scott-bessent&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP