Jack Smith
As of Oct 24, 2026, Kalshi has settled 24 word markets on Jack Smith’s appearances since 2026, on 18 different words.
History Wall
1–18 of 18, most settled first| Word | Jan 23hearing | Jul 2latest | Last 2 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corrupt / Corruption | Settled yes: Corrupt / Corruption, Jan 23 hearing | Settled yes: Corrupt / Corruption, Jul 2 interview | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 67%n=2 from settlement history |
| Democracy | Settled yes: Democracy, Jan 23 hearing | Settled yes: Democracy, Jul 2 interview | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 67%n=2 from settlement history |
| Fraud | Settled yes: Fraud, Jan 23 hearing | Settled yes: Fraud, Jul 2 interview | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 67%n=2 from settlement history |
| January 6 | Settled yes: January 6, Jan 23 hearing | Settled yes: January 6, Jul 2 interview | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 67%n=2 from settlement history |
| Classified | Settled yes: Classified, Jan 23 hearing | Settled no: Classified, Jul 2 interview | 1/250% | 1/250% | 50%n=2 from settlement history |
| Mike Pence | Settled yes: Mike Pence, Jan 23 hearing | Settled no: Mike Pence, Jul 2 interview | 1/250% | 1/250% | 50%n=2 from settlement history |
| Criminal | Settled yes: Criminal, Jan 23 hearing | Not listed: Criminal, Jul 2 interview | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Election | Not listed: Election, Jan 23 hearing | Settled yes: Election, Jul 2 interview | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Indict / Indicted / Indictment | Not listed: Indict / Indicted / Indictment, Jan 23 hearing | Settled yes: Indict / Indicted / Indictment, Jul 2 interview | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Insurrection | Settled yes: Insurrection, Jan 23 hearing | Not listed: Insurrection, Jul 2 interview | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Reasonable Doubt | Not listed: Reasonable Doubt, Jan 23 hearing | Settled yes: Reasonable Doubt, Jul 2 interview | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Retribution | Settled yes: Retribution, Jan 23 hearing | Not listed: Retribution, Jul 2 interview | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Supreme Court | Not listed: Supreme Court, Jan 23 hearing | Settled yes: Supreme Court, Jul 2 interview | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Trump3+ times | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Jan 23 hearing | Settled yes: Trump (3+ times), Jul 2 interview | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | Settled no: Crypto / Bitcoin, Jan 23 hearing | Not listed: Crypto / Bitcoin, Jul 2 interview | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Tax | Settled no: Tax, Jan 23 hearing | Not listed: Tax, Jul 2 interview | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Weaponize / Weaponization | Settled no: Weaponize / Weaponization, Jan 23 hearing | Not listed: Weaponize / Weaponization, Jul 2 interview | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Weaponize / Weaponized / Weaponization | Not listed: Weaponize / Weaponized / Weaponization, Jan 23 hearing | Settled no: Weaponize / Weaponized / Weaponization, Jul 2 interview | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 2Settled results come from the venues. Our own transcript counts appear here once transcripts arrive for these appearances. How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2, 2026 | InterviewWhat will Jack Smith say during MS NOW: Deadline White House? | no transcript | 13 | 9 yes · 4 no | – |
| Jan 23, 2026 | HearingWhat will Jack Smith say during the testimony on his Trump investigations? | no transcript | 12 | 9 yes · 3 no | – |
Citeparrot.markets, “Jack Smith: mention market word history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jack-smith (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/jack-smith · words: /api/v1/history?entity=jack-smith · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP