Will Gavin Newsom say “Trump”?

As of Oct 26, 2026, Gavin Newsom said “Trump” at 15 of 19 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Nov 12, 2025 (79%), most recently on May 14, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 70% (n=19, from settlement history), not a forecast.

70%from settlement history only · n=19counts: named speaker only
Last 10
8/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no yes yes yes yes no yes yes
Streak
said the last 2 times
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=gavin-newsom&word=trump

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Gavin Newsom

Trump

Probability
70% · n=19
Settled
15/19 (79%)

Next listing counts: named speaker only

We don’t have transcripts for Gavin Newsom yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.

What will Gavin Newsom say during his CA election announcement? · not listed

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What will Gavin Newsom say during the CAP IDEAS Conference? · not listed

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What will Gavin Newsom say during his revised budget plan? · settled yes

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What will Gavin Newsom say during his Earth Day announcement? · settled yes

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What will Gavin Newsom say during his press conference? · settled no

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What will Gavin Newsom say during his press conference? · settled yes

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What will Gavin Newsom say during his behavioral health announcement? · settled yes

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What will Gavin Newsom say during his announcement on homelessness? · settled yes

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What will Gavin Newsom say during his MS NOW interview? · settled yes

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What will Gavin Newsom say during his book tour discussion? · settled no

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Every settled listing

newest first · 19 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
May 14, 2026TrumpKalshiYes
Apr 22, 2026TrumpKalshiYes
Apr 2, 2026TrumpKalshiNo
Mar 25, 2026TrumpKalshiYes
Mar 11, 2026TrumpKalshiYes
Mar 3, 2026TrumpKalshiYes
Feb 26, 2026TrumpKalshiYes
Feb 25, 2026TrumpKalshiNo
Feb 23, 2026TrumpKalshiYes
Feb 21, 2026TrumpKalshiYes
Feb 20, 2026TrumpKalshiYes
Feb 11, 2026TrumpKalshiNo
Jan 23, 2026TrumpKalshiYes
Jan 17, 2026TrumpKalshiYes
Jan 9, 2026TrumpKalshiYes
Jan 6, 2026TrumpKalshiYes
Dec 13, 2025TrumpKalshiNo
Dec 4, 2025TrumpKalshiYes
Nov 12, 2025TrumpKalshiYes

Questions

How often does Gavin Newsom say “Trump”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, Gavin Newsom said “Trump” at 15 of 19 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Nov 12, 2025 (79%), most recently on May 14, 2026.
What is the probability Gavin Newsom says “Trump” next time?
70%, from settlement history (n=19). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Gavin Newsom: ‘Trump’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/gavin-newsom/words/trump (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=gavin-newsom&word=trump · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=gavin-newsom&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP