Will JD Vance say “Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime”?

As of Oct 26, 2026, JD Vance said “Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime” at 17 of 21 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 17, 2025 (81%), most recently on Oct 26, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 66% (n=21, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 rallies have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. No rallies among them yet.

66%from settlement history only · n=21Next: Rally, Oct 26, 2026 · counts: named speaker only
Last 10
8/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes no yes no yes yes
Streak
said the last 2 times
Counts
named speaker only
Market
99¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=tax%20on%20overtime%20%2F%20tax%20on%20tip

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

JD Vance

Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime

Probability
66% · n=21
Settled
17/21 (81%)
Last 5 transcripts
said in 0 of 5

Next listing counts: named speaker only

What will JD Vance say during his rally in Montana? · settled yes

Open the appearance

We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will JD Vance say during his fraud press conference? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in North Carolina? · settled yes

Open the appearance

We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will JD Vance say during his CBS Town Hall? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will JD Vance say during his rally in Michigan? · settled no

Open the appearance

What will JD Vance say during his rally in Ohio? · settled yes

Open the appearance

We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will JD Vance say during his rally in Alaska? · settled no

Open the appearance

What will JD Vance say during Fox News: Hannity? · not listed

Open the appearance

What will JD Vance say during his Midterm Rally in Florida? · settled yes

Open the appearance

Every settled listing

newest first · 25 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Oct 26, 2026Tax on Tips / Tax on OvertimeKalshiYes
Oct 19, 2026Tax on Tips / Tax on OvertimeKalshiYes
Oct 15, 2026Tax on Tips / Tax on OvertimeKalshiNo
Oct 9, 2026Tax on Tips / Tax on OvertimePolymarketYes
Oct 9, 2026Tax on Tips / Tax on OvertimeKalshiYes
Oct 5, 2026Tax on Tips / Tax on OvertimeKalshiNo
Oct 1, 2026Tax on Tips / Tax on OvertimeKalshiYes
Sep 30, 2026Tax on Tips / Tax on OvertimeKalshiYes
Sep 21, 2026Tax on Tips / Tax on OvertimePolymarketYes
Sep 21, 2026Tax on Tips / Tax on OvertimeKalshiYes
Sep 18, 2026Tax on Tips / Tax on OvertimeKalshiYes
Sep 14, 2026Tax on Tips / Tax on OvertimeKalshiYes
Sep 14, 2026Tax on Tips / Tax on OvertimeKalshiNo
Sep 9, 2026Tax on Tips / Tax on OvertimePolymarketYes
Sep 9, 2026Tax on Tips / Tax on OvertimeKalshiYes
Aug 31, 2026Tax on Tips / Tax on OvertimeKalshiYes
Aug 24, 2026Tax on Tips / Tax on OvertimePolymarketYes
Aug 24, 2026Tax on Tips / Tax on OvertimeKalshiYes
Aug 21, 2026Tax on Tips / Tax on OvertimeKalshiYes
Mar 18, 2026Tax on Tips / Tax on OvertimeKalshiYes
Mar 13, 2026Tax on Tips / Tax on OvertimeKalshiNo
Feb 27, 2026Tax on Tips / Tax on OvertimeKalshiYes
Jan 23, 2026Tax on Tips / Tax on OvertimeKalshiYes
Jan 22, 2026Tax on Tips / Tax on OvertimePolymarketYes
Dec 17, 2025Tax on Tips / Tax on OvertimeKalshiYes

Questions

How often does JD Vance say “Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, JD Vance said “Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime” at 17 of 21 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 17, 2025 (81%), most recently on Oct 26, 2026.
What is the probability JD Vance says “Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime” next time?
66%, from settlement history (n=21). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/tax-on-overtime-or-tax-on-tip (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=tax%20on%20overtime%20%2F%20tax%20on%20tip · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP