Thomas Massie
As of Oct 24, 2026, Kalshi has settled 23 word markets on Thomas Massie’s appearances since 2026, on 20 different words.
History Wall
1–20 of 20, most settled first| Word | Apr 15hearing | May 5latest | Last 2 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Constitutional / Constitution | Settled yes: Constitutional / Constitution, Apr 15 hearing | Settled yes: Constitutional / Constitution, May 5 episode | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 70%n=2 from settlement history |
| Democrat | Settled yes: Democrat, Apr 15 hearing | Settled yes: Democrat, May 5 episode | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 70%n=2 from settlement history |
| Epstein | Settled no: Epstein, Apr 15 hearing | Settled yes: Epstein, May 5 episode | 1/250% | 1/250% | 59%n=2 from settlement history |
| 2028 / Campaign | Not listed: 2028 / Campaign, Apr 15 hearing | Settled yes: 2028 / Campaign, May 5 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Background Check | Settled yes: Background Check, Apr 15 hearing | Not listed: Background Check, May 5 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Concealed Carry | Settled yes: Concealed Carry, Apr 15 hearing | Not listed: Concealed Carry, May 5 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Not listed: Corrupt / Corruption, Apr 15 hearing | Settled yes: Corrupt / Corruption, May 5 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Crime / Criminal | Settled yes: Crime / Criminal, Apr 15 hearing | Not listed: Crime / Criminal, May 5 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Election | Not listed: Election, Apr 15 hearing | Settled yes: Election, May 5 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Infringe / Infringed / Infringement | Settled yes: Infringe / Infringed / Infringement, Apr 15 hearing | Not listed: Infringe / Infringed / Infringement, May 5 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Iran / Iranian | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Apr 15 hearing | Settled yes: Iran / Iranian, May 5 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Israel / Israeli | Not listed: Israel / Israeli, Apr 15 hearing | Settled yes: Israel / Israeli, May 5 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Ro / Khanna | Not listed: Ro / Khanna, Apr 15 hearing | Settled yes: Ro / Khanna, May 5 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | Not listed: MAGA / Make America Great Again, Apr 15 hearing | Settled yes: MAGA / Make America Great Again, May 5 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Supreme Court | Settled yes: Supreme Court, Apr 15 hearing | Not listed: Supreme Court, May 5 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Trump3+ times | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Apr 15 hearing | Settled yes: Trump (3+ times), May 5 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| ATF | Settled no: ATF, Apr 15 hearing | Not listed: ATF, May 5 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Kentucky | Settled no: Kentucky, Apr 15 hearing | Not listed: Kentucky, May 5 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Self Defense | Settled no: Self Defense, Apr 15 hearing | Not listed: Self Defense, May 5 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Vote / Voter | Settled no: Vote / Voter, Apr 15 hearing | Not listed: Vote / Voter, May 5 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 2Settled results come from the venues. Our own transcript counts appear here once transcripts arrive for these appearances. How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 5, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will Thomas Massie say during The Tucker Carlson Show? | no transcript | 12 | 11 yes · 1 no | – |
| Apr 15, 2026 | HearingWhat will Thomas Massie say during the hearing on The Second Amendment? | no transcript | 13 | 7 yes · 6 no | – |
Citeparrot.markets, “Thomas Massie: mention market word history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/thomas-massie (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/thomas-massie · words: /api/v1/history?entity=thomas-massie · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP