Nancy Pelosi
As of Oct 24, 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket have settled 74 word markets on Nancy Pelosi’s appearances since 2024, on 48 different words; most reliably said: “Democracy” (4 of 5).
History Wall
1–40 of 48, most settled first · page 1 of 2| Word | Aug 21 ’24speech | Jan 7 ’26episode | Mar 31interview | Apr 13interview | Jun 17latest | Last 5 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democracy | Settled yes: Democracy, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Settled yes: Democracy, Jan 7 ’26 episode | Settled no: Democracy, Mar 31 interview | Settled yes: Democracy, Apr 13 interview | Settled yes: Democracy, Jun 17 episode | 4/580% | 4/580% | 42%n=3 from settlement history |
| Trump | Not listed: Trump, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Settled yes: Trump, Jan 7 ’26 episode | Settled no: Trump, Mar 31 interview | Settled no: Trump, Apr 13 interview | Settled no: Trump, Jun 17 episode | 1/425% | 1/425% | 26%n=2 from settlement history |
| Constitutional / Constitution / Unconstitutional | Not listed: Constitutional / Constitution / Unconstitutional, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Not listed: Constitutional / Constitution / Unconstitutional, Jan 7 ’26 episode | Settled yes: Constitutional / Constitution / Unconstitutional, Mar 31 interview | Settled yes: Constitutional / Constitution / Unconstitutional, Apr 13 interview | Settled yes: Constitutional / Constitution / Unconstitutional, Jun 17 episode | 3/3100% | 3/3100% | 54%n=2 from settlement history |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Jan 7 ’26 episode | Settled no: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Mar 31 interview | Settled yes: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Apr 13 interview | Settled yes: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Jun 17 episode | 2/367% | 2/367% | 40%n=2 from settlement history |
| Healthcare | Settled no: Healthcare, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Settled yes: Healthcare, Jan 7 ’26 episode | Not listed: Healthcare, Mar 31 interview | Settled yes: Healthcare, Apr 13 interview | Not listed: Healthcare, Jun 17 episode | 2/367% | 2/367% | 45%n=2 from settlement history |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Jan 7 ’26 episode | Settled no: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Mar 31 interview | Settled no: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Apr 13 interview | Settled yes: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Jun 17 episode | 1/333% | 1/333% | 26%n=2 from settlement history |
| January 6 | Settled yes: January 6, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Not listed: January 6, Jan 7 ’26 episode | Settled no: January 6, Mar 31 interview | Settled no: January 6, Apr 13 interview | Not listed: January 6, Jun 17 episode | 1/333% | 1/333% | 28%n=3 from settlement history |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Not listed: Corrupt / Corruption, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Not listed: Corrupt / Corruption, Jan 7 ’26 episode | Settled no: Corrupt / Corruption, Mar 31 interview | Settled no: Corrupt / Corruption, Apr 13 interview | Settled no: Corrupt / Corruption, Jun 17 episode | 0/30% | 0/30% | 26%n=2 from settlement history |
| Republican | Not listed: Republican, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Settled yes: Republican, Jan 7 ’26 episode | Not listed: Republican, Mar 31 interview | Not listed: Republican, Apr 13 interview | Settled yes: Republican, Jun 17 episode | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | – |
| Bipartisan | Not listed: Bipartisan, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Not listed: Bipartisan, Jan 7 ’26 episode | Settled no: Bipartisan, Mar 31 interview | Settled yes: Bipartisan, Apr 13 interview | Not listed: Bipartisan, Jun 17 episode | 1/250% | 1/250% | 40%n=2 from settlement history |
| Election | Not listed: Election, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Not listed: Election, Jan 7 ’26 episode | Not listed: Election, Mar 31 interview | Settled yes: Election, Apr 13 interview | Settled no: Election, Jun 17 episode | 1/250% | 1/250% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Iran | Not listed: Iran, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Not listed: Iran, Jan 7 ’26 episode | Settled no: Iran, Mar 31 interview | Not listed: Iran, Apr 13 interview | Settled yes: Iran, Jun 17 episode | 1/250% | 1/250% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Epstein | Not listed: Epstein, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Settled no: Epstein, Jan 7 ’26 episode | Not listed: Epstein, Mar 31 interview | Not listed: Epstein, Apr 13 interview | Settled no: Epstein, Jun 17 episode | 0/20% | 0/20% | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Jan 7 ’26 episode | Settled no: Shutdown / Shut Down, Mar 31 interview | Settled no: Shutdown / Shut Down, Apr 13 interview | Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Jun 17 episode | 0/20% | 0/20% | 26%n=2 from settlement history |
| Stock | Settled no: Stock, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Not listed: Stock, Jan 7 ’26 episode | Settled no: Stock, Mar 31 interview | Not listed: Stock, Apr 13 interview | Not listed: Stock, Jun 17 episode | 0/20% | 0/20% | 29%n=2 from settlement history |
| Affordable / Affordability | Not listed: Affordable / Affordability, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Settled yes: Affordable / Affordability, Jan 7 ’26 episode | Not listed: Affordable / Affordability, Mar 31 interview | Not listed: Affordable / Affordability, Apr 13 interview | Not listed: Affordable / Affordability, Jun 17 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | – |
| Insurrection / Attack / Attacked | Not listed: Insurrection / Attack / Attacked, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Settled yes: Insurrection / Attack / Attacked, Jan 7 ’26 episode | Not listed: Insurrection / Attack / Attacked, Mar 31 interview | Not listed: Insurrection / Attack / Attacked, Apr 13 interview | Not listed: Insurrection / Attack / Attacked, Jun 17 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | – |
| Obama / Biden | Not listed: Obama / Biden, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Not listed: Obama / Biden, Jan 7 ’26 episode | Not listed: Obama / Biden, Mar 31 interview | Settled yes: Obama / Biden, Apr 13 interview | Not listed: Obama / Biden, Jun 17 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Congress / Congressional | Not listed: Congress / Congressional, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Not listed: Congress / Congressional, Jan 7 ’26 episode | Not listed: Congress / Congressional, Mar 31 interview | Not listed: Congress / Congressional, Apr 13 interview | Settled yes: Congress / Congressional, Jun 17 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | – |
| Constitution / Unconstitutional | Not listed: Constitution / Unconstitutional, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Settled yes: Constitution / Unconstitutional, Jan 7 ’26 episode | Not listed: Constitution / Unconstitutional, Mar 31 interview | Not listed: Constitution / Unconstitutional, Apr 13 interview | Not listed: Constitution / Unconstitutional, Jun 17 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | – |
| ICE / National Guard | Not listed: ICE / National Guard, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Settled yes: ICE / National Guard, Jan 7 ’26 episode | Not listed: ICE / National Guard, Mar 31 interview | Not listed: ICE / National Guard, Apr 13 interview | Not listed: ICE / National Guard, Jun 17 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | – |
| Impeach / Impeached / Impeachment | Not listed: Impeach / Impeached / Impeachment, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Not listed: Impeach / Impeached / Impeachment, Jan 7 ’26 episode | Not listed: Impeach / Impeached / Impeachment, Mar 31 interview | Settled yes: Impeach / Impeached / Impeachment, Apr 13 interview | Not listed: Impeach / Impeached / Impeachment, Jun 17 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Iran / Iranian | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Jan 7 ’26 episode | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Mar 31 interview | Settled yes: Iran / Iranian, Apr 13 interview | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Jun 17 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Joe Biden3+ times | Settled yes: Joe Biden 3+ times, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Not listed: Joe Biden 3+ times, Jan 7 ’26 episode | Not listed: Joe Biden 3+ times, Mar 31 interview | Not listed: Joe Biden 3+ times, Apr 13 interview | Not listed: Joe Biden 3+ times, Jun 17 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Maduro / Venezuela | Not listed: Maduro / Venezuela, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Settled yes: Maduro / Venezuela, Jan 7 ’26 episode | Not listed: Maduro / Venezuela, Mar 31 interview | Not listed: Maduro / Venezuela, Apr 13 interview | Not listed: Maduro / Venezuela, Jun 17 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | – |
| Pardon / Pardoned | Not listed: Pardon / Pardoned, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Settled yes: Pardon / Pardoned, Jan 7 ’26 episode | Not listed: Pardon / Pardoned, Mar 31 interview | Not listed: Pardon / Pardoned, Apr 13 interview | Not listed: Pardon / Pardoned, Jun 17 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | – |
| Antisemitism | Settled no: Antisemitism, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Not listed: Antisemitism, Jan 7 ’26 episode | Not listed: Antisemitism, Mar 31 interview | Not listed: Antisemitism, Apr 13 interview | Not listed: Antisemitism, Jun 17 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Biden | Not listed: Biden, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Not listed: Biden, Jan 7 ’26 episode | Not listed: Biden, Mar 31 interview | Not listed: Biden, Apr 13 interview | Settled no: Biden, Jun 17 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | Settled no: Crypto/Bitcoin, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Not listed: Crypto/Bitcoin, Jan 7 ’26 episode | Not listed: Crypto/Bitcoin, Mar 31 interview | Not listed: Crypto/Bitcoin, Apr 13 interview | Not listed: Crypto/Bitcoin, Jun 17 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Ceasefire | Settled no: Ceasefire, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Not listed: Ceasefire, Jan 7 ’26 episode | Not listed: Ceasefire, Mar 31 interview | Not listed: Ceasefire, Apr 13 interview | Not listed: Ceasefire, Jun 17 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Citizen | Not listed: Citizen, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Not listed: Citizen, Jan 7 ’26 episode | Settled no: Citizen, Mar 31 interview | Not listed: Citizen, Apr 13 interview | Not listed: Citizen, Jun 17 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Convicted felon | Settled no: Convicted felon, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Not listed: Convicted felon, Jan 7 ’26 episode | Not listed: Convicted felon, Mar 31 interview | Not listed: Convicted felon, Apr 13 interview | Not listed: Convicted felon, Jun 17 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Dictator / Dictatorship | Not listed: Dictator / Dictatorship, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Settled no: Dictator / Dictatorship, Jan 7 ’26 episode | Not listed: Dictator / Dictatorship, Mar 31 interview | Not listed: Dictator / Dictatorship, Apr 13 interview | Not listed: Dictator / Dictatorship, Jun 17 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Donald Trump3+ times | Settled no: Donald Trump 3+ times, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Not listed: Donald Trump 3+ times, Jan 7 ’26 episode | Not listed: Donald Trump 3+ times, Mar 31 interview | Not listed: Donald Trump 3+ times, Apr 13 interview | Not listed: Donald Trump 3+ times, Jun 17 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| ICE | Not listed: ICE, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Not listed: ICE, Jan 7 ’26 episode | Not listed: ICE, Mar 31 interview | Not listed: ICE, Apr 13 interview | Settled no: ICE, Jun 17 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| ICE / TSA | Not listed: ICE / TSA, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Not listed: ICE / TSA, Jan 7 ’26 episode | Not listed: ICE / TSA, Mar 31 interview | Settled no: ICE / TSA, Apr 13 interview | Not listed: ICE / TSA, Jun 17 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Immigrant / Immigration | Not listed: Immigrant / Immigration, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Not listed: Immigrant / Immigration, Jan 7 ’26 episode | Settled no: Immigrant / Immigration, Mar 31 interview | Not listed: Immigrant / Immigration, Apr 13 interview | Not listed: Immigrant / Immigration, Jun 17 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Israel | Settled no: Israel, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Not listed: Israel, Jan 7 ’26 episode | Not listed: Israel, Mar 31 interview | Not listed: Israel, Apr 13 interview | Not listed: Israel, Jun 17 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Obama | Settled no: Obama, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Not listed: Obama, Jan 7 ’26 episode | Not listed: Obama, Mar 31 interview | Not listed: Obama, Apr 13 interview | Not listed: Obama, Jun 17 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Russia / Russian | Not listed: Russia / Russian, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Not listed: Russia / Russian, Jan 7 ’26 episode | Not listed: Russia / Russian, Mar 31 interview | Settled no: Russia / Russian, Apr 13 interview | Not listed: Russia / Russian, Jun 17 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 5Settled results come from the venues. Our own transcript counts appear here once transcripts arrive for these appearances. How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 17, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will Nancy Pelosi say during The Briefing with Jen Psaki? | no transcript | 15 | 7 yes · 8 no | – |
| Apr 13, 2026 | InterviewWhat will Nancy Pelosi say during her GWU remarks? | no transcript | 18 | 9 yes · 9 no | – |
| Mar 31, 2026 | InterviewWhat will Nancy Pelosi say during her MS NOW interview? | no transcript | 16 | 1 yes · 15 no | – |
| Jan 7, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will Nancy Pelosi say on The Briefing With Jen Psaki? | no transcript | 12 | 10 yes · 2 no | – |
| Aug 21, 2024 | SpeechWhat will Nancy Pelosi say during DNC speech? | no transcript | 16 | 3 yes · 13 no | – |
Citeparrot.markets, “Nancy Pelosi: mention market word history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/nancy-pelosi (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/nancy-pelosi · words: /api/v1/history?entity=nancy-pelosi · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP