John Thune

Politics · CongressPersonUS CongressHistory onlyUpdated Oct 24, 2026, 07:28 UTC

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As of Oct 24, 2026, Kalshi has settled 36 word markets on John Thune’s appearances since 2026, on 27 different words.

History Wall

1–27 of 27, most settled first

John Thune: every word with settled markets, most settled first

Word	Mar 17interview	Apr 15episode	Jun 16latest	Last 3	Settled	Probability
Trump3+ times	NSettled no: Trump (3+ times), Mar 17 interview	NSettled no: Trump (3+ times), Apr 15 episode	NSettled no: Trump (3+ times), Jun 16 episode	0/30%	0/30%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Election	–Not listed: Election, Mar 17 interview	YSettled yes: Election, Apr 15 episode	YSettled yes: Election, Jun 16 episode	2/2100%	2/2100%	–
Iran	YSettled yes: Iran, Mar 17 interview	YSettled yes: Iran, Apr 15 episode	–Not listed: Iran, Jun 16 episode	2/2100%	2/2100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Filibuster	YSettled yes: Filibuster, Mar 17 interview	NSettled no: Filibuster, Apr 15 episode	–Not listed: Filibuster, Jun 16 episode	1/250%	1/250%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	–Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Mar 17 interview	YSettled yes: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Apr 15 episode	NSettled no: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Jun 16 episode	1/250%	1/250%	–
Cheat / Cheating	NSettled no: Cheat / Cheating, Mar 17 interview	NSettled no: Cheat / Cheating, Apr 15 episode	–Not listed: Cheat / Cheating, Jun 16 episode	0/20%	0/20%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
ICE / TSA	–Not listed: ICE / TSA, Mar 17 interview	NSettled no: ICE / TSA, Apr 15 episode	NSettled no: ICE / TSA, Jun 16 episode	0/20%	0/20%	–
Illegal Alien	NSettled no: Illegal Alien, Mar 17 interview	NSettled no: Illegal Alien, Apr 15 episode	–Not listed: Illegal Alien, Jun 16 episode	0/20%	0/20%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Democrat	–Not listed: Democrat, Mar 17 interview	–Not listed: Democrat, Apr 15 episode	YSettled yes: Democrat, Jun 16 episode	1/1100%	1/1100%	–
FISA / Surveillance	–Not listed: FISA / Surveillance, Mar 17 interview	–Not listed: FISA / Surveillance, Apr 15 episode	YSettled yes: FISA / Surveillance, Jun 16 episode	1/1100%	1/1100%	–
Fraud	YSettled yes: Fraud, Mar 17 interview	–Not listed: Fraud, Apr 15 episode	–Not listed: Fraud, Jun 16 episode	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
ID / Identification	YSettled yes: ID / Identification, Mar 17 interview	–Not listed: ID / Identification, Apr 15 episode	–Not listed: ID / Identification, Jun 16 episode	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Iran / Iranian	–Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Mar 17 interview	–Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Apr 15 episode	YSettled yes: Iran / Iranian, Jun 16 episode	1/1100%	1/1100%	–
National Security	–Not listed: National Security, Mar 17 interview	YSettled yes: National Security, Apr 15 episode	–Not listed: National Security, Jun 16 episode	1/1100%	1/1100%	–
Nuclear	–Not listed: Nuclear, Mar 17 interview	–Not listed: Nuclear, Apr 15 episode	YSettled yes: Nuclear, Jun 16 episode	1/1100%	1/1100%	–
Oil	YSettled yes: Oil, Mar 17 interview	–Not listed: Oil, Apr 15 episode	–Not listed: Oil, Jun 16 episode	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Schumer	YSettled yes: Schumer, Mar 17 interview	–Not listed: Schumer, Apr 15 episode	–Not listed: Schumer, Jun 16 episode	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
American Dream	–Not listed: American Dream, Mar 17 interview	–Not listed: American Dream, Apr 15 episode	NSettled no: American Dream, Jun 16 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–
Hormuz	–Not listed: Hormuz, Mar 17 interview	–Not listed: Hormuz, Apr 15 episode	NSettled no: Hormuz, Jun 16 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–
Kristi / Noem	NSettled no: Kristi / Noem, Mar 17 interview	–Not listed: Kristi / Noem, Apr 15 episode	–Not listed: Kristi / Noem, Jun 16 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
NATO	–Not listed: NATO, Mar 17 interview	–Not listed: NATO, Apr 15 episode	NSettled no: NATO, Jun 16 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–
Save Act / Save America Act	–Not listed: Save Act / Save America Act, Mar 17 interview	NSettled no: Save Act / Save America Act, Apr 15 episode	–Not listed: Save Act / Save America Act, Jun 16 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–
Shutdown / Shut Down	–Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Mar 17 interview	NSettled no: Shutdown / Shut Down, Apr 15 episode	–Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Jun 16 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–
Supreme Court	–Not listed: Supreme Court, Mar 17 interview	NSettled no: Supreme Court, Apr 15 episode	–Not listed: Supreme Court, Jun 16 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–
Tax Cut	–Not listed: Tax Cut, Mar 17 interview	NSettled no: Tax Cut, Apr 15 episode	–Not listed: Tax Cut, Jun 16 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–
Woman	NSettled no: Woman, Mar 17 interview	–Not listed: Woman, Apr 15 episode	–Not listed: Woman, Jun 16 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
World Cup	–Not listed: World Cup, Mar 17 interview	–Not listed: World Cup, Apr 15 episode	NSettled no: World Cup, Jun 16 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–

• Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
• N: settled no
• not listed
• probability next time, with n
• Select a word or a cell for its quotes

What the columns mean

Last N

of the appearances shown, how many counted as said

Settled

every settled market of the word: said / listed

Probability

the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history

Citeparrot.markets, “John Thune: mention market word history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/john-thune (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/john-thune · words: /api/v1/history?entity=john-thune · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP