Abigail Spanberger

Politics · Governors & mayorsPersonHistory onlyUpdated Oct 24, 2026, 01:56 UTC

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As of Oct 24, 2026, Kalshi has settled 60 word markets on Abigail Spanberger’s appearances since 2026, on 34 different words; most reliably said: “Healthcare” (3 of 5).

History Wall

1–34 of 34, most settled first

Abigail Spanberger: every word with settled markets, most settled first

Word	Jan 13episode	Feb 6episode	Feb 25speech	Jun 12episode	Aug 28latest	Last 5	Settled	Probability
Healthcare	NSettled no: Healthcare, Jan 13 episode	NSettled no: Healthcare, Feb 6 episode	YSettled yes: Healthcare, Feb 25 speech	YSettled yes: Healthcare, Jun 12 episode	YSettled yes: Healthcare, Aug 28 remarks	3/560%	3/560%	58%n=2 from settlement history
Republican	YSettled yes: Republican, Jan 13 episode	NSettled no: Republican, Feb 6 episode	–Not listed: Republican, Feb 25 speech	YSettled yes: Republican, Jun 12 episode	NSettled no: Republican, Aug 28 remarks	2/450%	2/450%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Trump	YSettled yes: Trump, Jan 13 episode	NSettled no: Trump, Feb 6 episode	–Not listed: Trump, Feb 25 speech	YSettled yes: Trump, Jun 12 episode	NSettled no: Trump, Aug 28 remarks	2/450%	2/450%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Afford / Affordable / Affordability	–Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Jan 13 episode	NSettled no: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Feb 6 episode	YSettled yes: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Feb 25 speech	NSettled no: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Jun 12 episode	NSettled no: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Aug 28 remarks	1/425%	1/425%	39%n=2 from settlement history
Corrupt / Corruption	–Not listed: Corrupt / Corruption, Jan 13 episode	–Not listed: Corrupt / Corruption, Feb 6 episode	YSettled yes: Corrupt / Corruption, Feb 25 speech	YSettled yes: Corrupt / Corruption, Jun 12 episode	NSettled no: Corrupt / Corruption, Aug 28 remarks	2/367%	2/367%	39%n=2 from settlement history
Election	–Not listed: Election, Jan 13 episode	YSettled yes: Election, Feb 6 episode	YSettled yes: Election, Feb 25 speech	NSettled no: Election, Jun 12 episode	–Not listed: Election, Aug 28 remarks	2/367%	2/367%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Redistrict / Redistricted / Redistricting	–Not listed: Redistrict / Redistricted / Redistricting, Jan 13 episode	NSettled no: Redistrict / Redistricted / Redistricting, Feb 6 episode	–Not listed: Redistrict / Redistricted / Redistricting, Feb 25 speech	YSettled yes: Redistrict / Redistricted / Redistricting, Jun 12 episode	NSettled no: Redistrict / Redistricted / Redistricting, Aug 28 remarks	1/333%	1/333%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Fraud	NSettled no: Fraud, Jan 13 episode	–Not listed: Fraud, Feb 6 episode	NSettled no: Fraud, Feb 25 speech	–Not listed: Fraud, Jun 12 episode	NSettled no: Fraud, Aug 28 remarks	0/30%	0/30%	30%n=2 from settlement history
Democracy	–Not listed: Democracy, Jan 13 episode	–Not listed: Democracy, Feb 6 episode	NSettled no: Democracy, Feb 25 speech	–Not listed: Democracy, Jun 12 episode	YSettled yes: Democracy, Aug 28 remarks	1/250%	1/250%	49%n=2 from settlement history
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	–Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Jan 13 episode	–Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Feb 6 episode	–Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Feb 25 speech	YSettled yes: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Jun 12 episode	NSettled no: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Aug 28 remarks	1/250%	1/250%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
ICE / National Guard	NSettled no: ICE / National Guard, Jan 13 episode	YSettled yes: ICE / National Guard, Feb 6 episode	–Not listed: ICE / National Guard, Feb 25 speech	–Not listed: ICE / National Guard, Jun 12 episode	–Not listed: ICE / National Guard, Aug 28 remarks	1/250%	1/250%	–
Tariff	–Not listed: Tariff, Jan 13 episode	–Not listed: Tariff, Feb 6 episode	YSettled yes: Tariff, Feb 25 speech	–Not listed: Tariff, Jun 12 episode	NSettled no: Tariff, Aug 28 remarks	1/250%	1/250%	39%n=2 from settlement history
ICE / Border	–Not listed: ICE / Border, Jan 13 episode	–Not listed: ICE / Border, Feb 6 episode	NSettled no: ICE / Border, Feb 25 speech	–Not listed: ICE / Border, Jun 12 episode	NSettled no: ICE / Border, Aug 28 remarks	0/20%	0/20%	30%n=2 from settlement history
Chaos	–Not listed: Chaos, Jan 13 episode	–Not listed: Chaos, Feb 6 episode	YSettled yes: Chaos, Feb 25 speech	–Not listed: Chaos, Jun 12 episode	–Not listed: Chaos, Aug 28 remarks	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Constitutional / Unconstitutional	–Not listed: Constitutional / Unconstitutional, Jan 13 episode	–Not listed: Constitutional / Unconstitutional, Feb 6 episode	YSettled yes: Constitutional / Unconstitutional, Feb 25 speech	–Not listed: Constitutional / Unconstitutional, Jun 12 episode	–Not listed: Constitutional / Unconstitutional, Aug 28 remarks	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Cooperate / Cooperation	–Not listed: Cooperate / Cooperation, Jan 13 episode	YSettled yes: Cooperate / Cooperation, Feb 6 episode	–Not listed: Cooperate / Cooperation, Feb 25 speech	–Not listed: Cooperate / Cooperation, Jun 12 episode	–Not listed: Cooperate / Cooperation, Aug 28 remarks	1/1100%	1/1100%	–
Epstein	–Not listed: Epstein, Jan 13 episode	–Not listed: Epstein, Feb 6 episode	YSettled yes: Epstein, Feb 25 speech	–Not listed: Epstein, Jun 12 episode	–Not listed: Epstein, Aug 28 remarks	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Executive Order	–Not listed: Executive Order, Jan 13 episode	YSettled yes: Executive Order, Feb 6 episode	–Not listed: Executive Order, Feb 25 speech	–Not listed: Executive Order, Jun 12 episode	–Not listed: Executive Order, Aug 28 remarks	1/1100%	1/1100%	–
Home / Housing	–Not listed: Home / Housing, Jan 13 episode	–Not listed: Home / Housing, Feb 6 episode	YSettled yes: Home / Housing, Feb 25 speech	–Not listed: Home / Housing, Jun 12 episode	–Not listed: Home / Housing, Aug 28 remarks	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Immigrant / Immigration	–Not listed: Immigrant / Immigration, Jan 13 episode	–Not listed: Immigrant / Immigration, Feb 6 episode	YSettled yes: Immigrant / Immigration, Feb 25 speech	–Not listed: Immigrant / Immigration, Jun 12 episode	–Not listed: Immigrant / Immigration, Aug 28 remarks	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Iran / Iranian	–Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Jan 13 episode	–Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Feb 6 episode	–Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Feb 25 speech	YSettled yes: Iran / Iranian, Jun 12 episode	–Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Aug 28 remarks	1/1100%	1/1100%	–
Medicaid / SNAP	–Not listed: Medicaid / SNAP, Jan 13 episode	–Not listed: Medicaid / SNAP, Feb 6 episode	–Not listed: Medicaid / SNAP, Feb 25 speech	–Not listed: Medicaid / SNAP, Jun 12 episode	YSettled yes: Medicaid / SNAP, Aug 28 remarks	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Affordable / Affordability	NSettled no: Affordable / Affordability, Jan 13 episode	–Not listed: Affordable / Affordability, Feb 6 episode	–Not listed: Affordable / Affordability, Feb 25 speech	–Not listed: Affordable / Affordability, Jun 12 episode	–Not listed: Affordable / Affordability, Aug 28 remarks	0/10%	0/10%	–
Budget	–Not listed: Budget, Jan 13 episode	–Not listed: Budget, Feb 6 episode	–Not listed: Budget, Feb 25 speech	NSettled no: Budget, Jun 12 episode	–Not listed: Budget, Aug 28 remarks	0/10%	0/10%	–
Gerrymander / Gerrymandering	–Not listed: Gerrymander / Gerrymandering, Jan 13 episode	NSettled no: Gerrymander / Gerrymandering, Feb 6 episode	–Not listed: Gerrymander / Gerrymandering, Feb 25 speech	–Not listed: Gerrymander / Gerrymandering, Jun 12 episode	–Not listed: Gerrymander / Gerrymandering, Aug 28 remarks	0/10%	0/10%	–
Greenland	NSettled no: Greenland, Jan 13 episode	–Not listed: Greenland, Feb 6 episode	–Not listed: Greenland, Feb 25 speech	–Not listed: Greenland, Jun 12 episode	–Not listed: Greenland, Aug 28 remarks	0/10%	0/10%	–
Noem / Homan	–Not listed: Noem / Homan, Jan 13 episode	NSettled no: Noem / Homan, Feb 6 episode	–Not listed: Noem / Homan, Feb 25 speech	–Not listed: Noem / Homan, Jun 12 episode	–Not listed: Noem / Homan, Aug 28 remarks	0/10%	0/10%	–
Housing	–Not listed: Housing, Jan 13 episode	–Not listed: Housing, Feb 6 episode	–Not listed: Housing, Feb 25 speech	NSettled no: Housing, Jun 12 episode	–Not listed: Housing, Aug 28 remarks	0/10%	0/10%	–
ICE	–Not listed: ICE, Jan 13 episode	–Not listed: ICE, Feb 6 episode	–Not listed: ICE, Feb 25 speech	NSettled no: ICE, Jun 12 episode	–Not listed: ICE, Aug 28 remarks	0/10%	0/10%	–
Maduro / Venezuela	NSettled no: Maduro / Venezuela, Jan 13 episode	–Not listed: Maduro / Venezuela, Feb 6 episode	–Not listed: Maduro / Venezuela, Feb 25 speech	–Not listed: Maduro / Venezuela, Jun 12 episode	–Not listed: Maduro / Venezuela, Aug 28 remarks	0/10%	0/10%	–
MAGA	–Not listed: MAGA, Jan 13 episode	–Not listed: MAGA, Feb 6 episode	NSettled no: MAGA, Feb 25 speech	–Not listed: MAGA, Jun 12 episode	–Not listed: MAGA, Aug 28 remarks	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Martin Luther King / MLK	–Not listed: Martin Luther King / MLK, Jan 13 episode	–Not listed: Martin Luther King / MLK, Feb 6 episode	–Not listed: Martin Luther King / MLK, Feb 25 speech	–Not listed: Martin Luther King / MLK, Jun 12 episode	NSettled no: Martin Luther King / MLK, Aug 28 remarks	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Shutdown / Shut Down	–Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Jan 13 episode	–Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Feb 6 episode	NSettled no: Shutdown / Shut Down, Feb 25 speech	–Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Jun 12 episode	–Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Aug 28 remarks	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Somali / Somalia / Somalian	NSettled no: Somali / Somalia / Somalian, Jan 13 episode	–Not listed: Somali / Somalia / Somalian, Feb 6 episode	–Not listed: Somali / Somalia / Somalian, Feb 25 speech	–Not listed: Somali / Somalia / Somalian, Jun 12 episode	–Not listed: Somali / Somalia / Somalian, Aug 28 remarks	0/10%	0/10%	–

• Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
• N: settled no
• not listed
• probability next time, with n
• Select a word or a cell for its quotes

What the columns mean

Last N

of the appearances shown, how many counted as said

Settled

every settled market of the word: said / listed

Probability

the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history

Citeparrot.markets, “Abigail Spanberger: mention market word history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/abigail-spanberger (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/abigail-spanberger · words: /api/v1/history?entity=abigail-spanberger · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP