Pete Hegseth
As of Oct 25, 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket have settled 389 word markets on Pete Hegseth’s appearances since 2024, on 126 different words; most reliably said: “Nuclear” (14 of 16).
History Wall
1–40 of 134, most settled first · page 1 of 2| Word | Apr 8briefing | Apr 16briefing | Apr 24briefing | Apr 29hearing | May 5briefing | May 12hearing | May 29speech | Jun 14episode | Jul 21hearing | Sep 13latest | Last 10 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drone | Settled yes: Drone, Apr 8 briefing | Settled yes: Drone, Apr 16 briefing | Settled no: Drone, Apr 24 briefing | Settled yes: Drone, Apr 29 hearing | Settled yes: Drone, May 5 briefing | Settled no: Drone, May 12 hearing | Settled no: Drone, May 29 speech | Not listed: Drone, Jun 14 episode | Settled yes: Drone, Jul 21 hearing | Settled no: Drone, Sep 13 episode | 5/956% | 11/1861% | 50%n=17 from settlement history |
| Nuclear | Settled yes: Nuclear, Apr 8 briefing | Not listed: Nuclear, Apr 16 briefing | Not listed: Nuclear, Apr 24 briefing | Settled yes: Nuclear, Apr 29 hearing | Not listed: Nuclear, May 5 briefing | Settled yes: Nuclear, May 12 hearing | Settled yes: Nuclear, May 29 speech | Settled yes: Nuclear, Jun 14 episode | Settled yes: Nuclear, Jul 21 hearing | Settled no: Nuclear, Sep 13 episode | 6/786% | 14/1688% | 64%n=15 from settlement history |
| Israel / Israeli | Settled yes: Israel / Israeli, Apr 8 briefing | Settled yes: Israel / Israeli, Apr 16 briefing | Settled yes: Israel / Israeli, Apr 24 briefing | Settled yes: Israel / Israeli, Apr 29 hearing | Settled yes: Israel / Israeli, May 5 briefing | Settled no: Israel / Israeli, May 12 hearing | Not listed: Israel / Israeli, May 29 speech | Settled yes: Israel / Israeli, Jun 14 episode | Settled no: Israel / Israeli, Jul 21 hearing | Settled no: Israel / Israeli, Sep 13 episode | 6/967% | 13/1681% | 56%n=15 from settlement history |
| America First | Settled yes: America First, Apr 8 briefing | Settled no: America First, Apr 16 briefing | Settled no: America First, Apr 24 briefing | Settled no: America First, Apr 29 hearing | Settled yes: America First, May 5 briefing | Settled no: America First, May 12 hearing | Settled yes: America First, May 29 speech | Not listed: America First, Jun 14 episode | Settled yes: America First, Jul 21 hearing | Settled no: America First, Sep 13 episode | 4/944% | 8/1650% | 44%n=15 from settlement history |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | Settled yes: Terrorist / Terrorism, Apr 8 briefing | Settled yes: Terrorist / Terrorism, Apr 16 briefing | Settled yes: Terrorist / Terrorism, Apr 24 briefing | Not listed: Terrorist / Terrorism, Apr 29 hearing | Settled no: Terrorist / Terrorism, May 5 briefing | Not listed: Terrorist / Terrorism, May 12 hearing | Settled yes: Terrorist / Terrorism, May 29 speech | Settled yes: Terrorist / Terrorism, Jun 14 episode | Settled yes: Terrorist / Terrorism, Jul 21 hearing | Settled no: Terrorist / Terrorism, Sep 13 episode | 6/875% | 9/1560% | 53%n=14 from settlement history |
| Fake News | Settled no: Fake News, Apr 8 briefing | Settled yes: Fake News, Apr 16 briefing | Settled no: Fake News, Apr 24 briefing | Settled no: Fake News, Apr 29 hearing | Settled no: Fake News, May 5 briefing | Settled no: Fake News, May 12 hearing | Not listed: Fake News, May 29 speech | Settled no: Fake News, Jun 14 episode | Not listed: Fake News, Jul 21 hearing | Not listed: Fake News, Sep 13 episode | 1/714% | 3/1520% | 27%n=14 from settlement history |
| Hormuz | Settled yes: Hormuz, Apr 8 briefing | Settled yes: Hormuz, Apr 16 briefing | Settled yes: Hormuz, Apr 24 briefing | Settled yes: Hormuz, Apr 29 hearing | Settled yes: Hormuz, May 5 briefing | Settled no: Hormuz, May 12 hearing | Not listed: Hormuz, May 29 speech | Not listed: Hormuz, Jun 14 episode | Not listed: Hormuz, Jul 21 hearing | Settled no: Hormuz, Sep 13 episode | 5/771% | 8/1457% | 49%n=13 from settlement history |
| Oil | Settled yes: Oil, Apr 8 briefing | Settled no: Oil, Apr 16 briefing | Settled no: Oil, Apr 24 briefing | Settled yes: Oil, Apr 29 hearing | Settled no: Oil, May 5 briefing | Settled no: Oil, May 12 hearing | Settled no: Oil, May 29 speech | Not listed: Oil, Jun 14 episode | Not listed: Oil, Jul 21 hearing | Not listed: Oil, Sep 13 episode | 2/729% | 4/1429% | 34%n=13 from settlement history |
| Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration | Settled yes: Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration, Apr 8 briefing | Settled no: Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration, Apr 16 briefing | Settled no: Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration, Apr 24 briefing | Settled yes: Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration, Apr 29 hearing | Settled yes: Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration, May 5 briefing | Settled no: Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration, May 12 hearing | Not listed: Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration, May 29 speech | Not listed: Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration, Jun 14 episode | Not listed: Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration, Jul 21 hearing | Settled no: Obliterate / Obliterated / Obliteration, Sep 13 episode | 3/743% | 6/1346% | 38%n=12 from settlement history |
| Ayatollah / Khamenei | Settled no: Ayatollah / Khamenei, Apr 8 briefing | Settled no: Ayatollah / Khamenei, Apr 16 briefing | Settled no: Ayatollah / Khamenei, Apr 24 briefing | Not listed: Ayatollah / Khamenei, Apr 29 hearing | Settled no: Ayatollah / Khamenei, May 5 briefing | Not listed: Ayatollah / Khamenei, May 12 hearing | Not listed: Ayatollah / Khamenei, May 29 speech | Not listed: Ayatollah / Khamenei, Jun 14 episode | Not listed: Ayatollah / Khamenei, Jul 21 hearing | Settled no: Ayatollah / Khamenei, Sep 13 episode | 0/50% | 1/128% | 22%n=11 from settlement history |
| Trump5+ times | Settled yes: Trump (5+ times), Apr 8 briefing | Settled yes: Trump (5+ times), Apr 16 briefing | Settled yes: Trump (5+ times), Apr 24 briefing | Not listed: Trump (5+ times), Apr 29 hearing | Settled yes: Trump (5+ times), May 5 briefing | Not listed: Trump (5+ times), May 12 hearing | Not listed: Trump (5+ times), May 29 speech | Not listed: Trump (5+ times), Jun 14 episode | Not listed: Trump (5+ times), Jul 21 hearing | Not listed: Trump (5+ times), Sep 13 episode | 4/4100% | 8/1173% | 67%n=10 from settlement history |
| Democrat | Settled no: Democrat, Apr 8 briefing | Settled no: Democrat, Apr 16 briefing | Not listed: Democrat, Apr 24 briefing | Not listed: Democrat, Apr 29 hearing | Not listed: Democrat, May 5 briefing | Not listed: Democrat, May 12 hearing | Not listed: Democrat, May 29 speech | Not listed: Democrat, Jun 14 episode | Not listed: Democrat, Jul 21 hearing | Not listed: Democrat, Sep 13 episode | 0/20% | 1/911% | 26%n=8 from settlement history |
| Civilian | Not listed: Civilian, Apr 8 briefing | Settled yes: Civilian, Apr 16 briefing | Settled no: Civilian, Apr 24 briefing | Not listed: Civilian, Apr 29 hearing | Settled yes: Civilian, May 5 briefing | Not listed: Civilian, May 12 hearing | Not listed: Civilian, May 29 speech | Not listed: Civilian, Jun 14 episode | Not listed: Civilian, Jul 21 hearing | Not listed: Civilian, Sep 13 episode | 2/367% | 5/771% | 55%n=6 from settlement history |
| Trump3+ times | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Apr 8 briefing | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Apr 16 briefing | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Apr 24 briefing | Settled yes: Trump (3+ times), Apr 29 hearing | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), May 5 briefing | Settled yes: Trump (3+ times), May 12 hearing | Settled yes: Trump (3+ times), May 29 speech | Settled yes: Trump (3+ times), Jun 14 episode | Settled yes: Trump (3+ times), Jul 21 hearing | Settled no: Trump (3+ times), Sep 13 episode | 5/683% | 5/683% | 56%n=6 from settlement history |
| Ukraine | Not listed: Ukraine, Apr 8 briefing | Not listed: Ukraine, Apr 16 briefing | Not listed: Ukraine, Apr 24 briefing | Settled yes: Ukraine, Apr 29 hearing | Not listed: Ukraine, May 5 briefing | Settled yes: Ukraine, May 12 hearing | Settled no: Ukraine, May 29 speech | Not listed: Ukraine, Jun 14 episode | Settled yes: Ukraine, Jul 21 hearing | Not listed: Ukraine, Sep 13 episode | 3/475% | 4/667% | 63%n=6 from settlement history |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Apr 8 briefing | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Apr 16 briefing | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Apr 24 briefing | Settled no: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Apr 29 hearing | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, May 5 briefing | Settled no: AI / Artificial Intelligence, May 12 hearing | Settled yes: AI / Artificial Intelligence, May 29 speech | Settled no: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Jun 14 episode | Settled yes: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Jul 21 hearing | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Sep 13 episode | 2/540% | 3/650% | 47%n=6 from settlement history |
| Russia | Settled no: Russia, Apr 8 briefing | Settled no: Russia, Apr 16 briefing | Not listed: Russia, Apr 24 briefing | Not listed: Russia, Apr 29 hearing | Not listed: Russia, May 5 briefing | Not listed: Russia, May 12 hearing | Not listed: Russia, May 29 speech | Not listed: Russia, Jun 14 episode | Not listed: Russia, Jul 21 hearing | Not listed: Russia, Sep 13 episode | 0/20% | 2/633% | 36%n=6 from settlement history |
| Golden Dome | Not listed: Golden Dome, Apr 8 briefing | Not listed: Golden Dome, Apr 16 briefing | Not listed: Golden Dome, Apr 24 briefing | Settled yes: Golden Dome, Apr 29 hearing | Not listed: Golden Dome, May 5 briefing | Settled no: Golden Dome, May 12 hearing | Not listed: Golden Dome, May 29 speech | Not listed: Golden Dome, Jun 14 episode | Settled yes: Golden Dome, Jul 21 hearing | Not listed: Golden Dome, Sep 13 episode | 2/367% | 4/580% | 60%n=5 from settlement history |
| Lethal | Not listed: Lethal, Apr 8 briefing | Not listed: Lethal, Apr 16 briefing | Settled yes: Lethal, Apr 24 briefing | Settled yes: Lethal, Apr 29 hearing | Settled no: Lethal, May 5 briefing | Settled yes: Lethal, May 12 hearing | Settled yes: Lethal, May 29 speech | Not listed: Lethal, Jun 14 episode | Not listed: Lethal, Jul 21 hearing | Not listed: Lethal, Sep 13 episode | 4/580% | 4/580% | 62%n=5 from settlement history |
| Hezbollah | Not listed: Hezbollah, Apr 8 briefing | Not listed: Hezbollah, Apr 16 briefing | Not listed: Hezbollah, Apr 24 briefing | Not listed: Hezbollah, Apr 29 hearing | Not listed: Hezbollah, May 5 briefing | Not listed: Hezbollah, May 12 hearing | Not listed: Hezbollah, May 29 speech | Not listed: Hezbollah, Jun 14 episode | Not listed: Hezbollah, Jul 21 hearing | Not listed: Hezbollah, Sep 13 episode | – | 1/520% | 38%n=4 from settlement history |
| Iraq | Not listed: Iraq, Apr 8 briefing | Not listed: Iraq, Apr 16 briefing | Not listed: Iraq, Apr 24 briefing | Not listed: Iraq, Apr 29 hearing | Not listed: Iraq, May 5 briefing | Not listed: Iraq, May 12 hearing | Not listed: Iraq, May 29 speech | Not listed: Iraq, Jun 14 episode | Not listed: Iraq, Jul 21 hearing | Not listed: Iraq, Sep 13 episode | – | 3/475% | 53%n=3 from settlement history |
| Venezuela | Not listed: Venezuela, Apr 8 briefing | Not listed: Venezuela, Apr 16 briefing | Not listed: Venezuela, Apr 24 briefing | Settled yes: Venezuela, Apr 29 hearing | Not listed: Venezuela, May 5 briefing | Not listed: Venezuela, May 12 hearing | Settled yes: Venezuela, May 29 speech | Settled yes: Venezuela, Jun 14 episode | Settled no: Venezuela, Jul 21 hearing | Not listed: Venezuela, Sep 13 episode | 3/475% | 3/475% | 56%n=4 from settlement history |
| F-15 / F-15E | Not listed: F-15 / F-15E, Apr 8 briefing | Not listed: F-15 / F-15E, Apr 16 briefing | Not listed: F-15 / F-15E, Apr 24 briefing | Not listed: F-15 / F-15E, Apr 29 hearing | Not listed: F-15 / F-15E, May 5 briefing | Not listed: F-15 / F-15E, May 12 hearing | Not listed: F-15 / F-15E, May 29 speech | Not listed: F-15 / F-15E, Jun 14 episode | Not listed: F-15 / F-15E, Jul 21 hearing | Settled no: F-15 / F-15E, Sep 13 episode | 0/10% | 1/425% | 35%n=3 from settlement history |
| Hamas / Hezbollah | Settled no: Hamas / Hezbollah, Apr 8 briefing | Settled no: Hamas / Hezbollah, Apr 16 briefing | Not listed: Hamas / Hezbollah, Apr 24 briefing | Not listed: Hamas / Hezbollah, Apr 29 hearing | Not listed: Hamas / Hezbollah, May 5 briefing | Not listed: Hamas / Hezbollah, May 12 hearing | Not listed: Hamas / Hezbollah, May 29 speech | Not listed: Hamas / Hezbollah, Jun 14 episode | Not listed: Hamas / Hezbollah, Jul 21 hearing | Not listed: Hamas / Hezbollah, Sep 13 episode | 0/20% | 1/425% | 34%n=4 from settlement history |
| Midnight Hammer | Not listed: Midnight Hammer, Apr 8 briefing | Not listed: Midnight Hammer, Apr 16 briefing | Not listed: Midnight Hammer, Apr 24 briefing | Not listed: Midnight Hammer, Apr 29 hearing | Not listed: Midnight Hammer, May 5 briefing | Not listed: Midnight Hammer, May 12 hearing | Not listed: Midnight Hammer, May 29 speech | Not listed: Midnight Hammer, Jun 14 episode | Not listed: Midnight Hammer, Jul 21 hearing | Not listed: Midnight Hammer, Sep 13 episode | – | 1/425% | 30%n=3 from settlement history |
| Submarine | Not listed: Submarine, Apr 8 briefing | Not listed: Submarine, Apr 16 briefing | Not listed: Submarine, Apr 24 briefing | Not listed: Submarine, Apr 29 hearing | Not listed: Submarine, May 5 briefing | Not listed: Submarine, May 12 hearing | Not listed: Submarine, May 29 speech | Not listed: Submarine, Jun 14 episode | Not listed: Submarine, Jul 21 hearing | Not listed: Submarine, Sep 13 episode | – | 1/425% | 41%n=3 from settlement history |
| Constitution / Constitutionalnever said | Not listed: Constitution / Constitutional, Apr 8 briefing | Not listed: Constitution / Constitutional, Apr 16 briefing | Not listed: Constitution / Constitutional, Apr 24 briefing | Not listed: Constitution / Constitutional, Apr 29 hearing | Not listed: Constitution / Constitutional, May 5 briefing | Not listed: Constitution / Constitutional, May 12 hearing | Not listed: Constitution / Constitutional, May 29 speech | Not listed: Constitution / Constitutional, Jun 14 episode | Not listed: Constitution / Constitutional, Jul 21 hearing | Not listed: Constitution / Constitutional, Sep 13 episode | – | 0/40% | 30%n=3 from settlement history |
| Ceasefire | Not listed: Ceasefire, Apr 8 briefing | Not listed: Ceasefire, Apr 16 briefing | Settled yes: Ceasefire, Apr 24 briefing | Not listed: Ceasefire, Apr 29 hearing | Settled yes: Ceasefire, May 5 briefing | Not listed: Ceasefire, May 12 hearing | Settled no: Ceasefire, May 29 speech | Not listed: Ceasefire, Jun 14 episode | Not listed: Ceasefire, Jul 21 hearing | Not listed: Ceasefire, Sep 13 episode | 2/367% | 2/367% | 50%n=3 from settlement history |
| China / Chinese | Not listed: China / Chinese, Apr 8 briefing | Not listed: China / Chinese, Apr 16 briefing | Not listed: China / Chinese, Apr 24 briefing | Not listed: China / Chinese, Apr 29 hearing | Not listed: China / Chinese, May 5 briefing | Not listed: China / Chinese, May 12 hearing | Settled yes: China / Chinese, May 29 speech | Settled no: China / Chinese, Jun 14 episode | Settled yes: China / Chinese, Jul 21 hearing | Not listed: China / Chinese, Sep 13 episode | 2/367% | 2/367% | 56%n=3 from settlement history |
| Epic Fury | Not listed: Epic Fury, Apr 8 briefing | Not listed: Epic Fury, Apr 16 briefing | Not listed: Epic Fury, Apr 24 briefing | Settled yes: Epic Fury, Apr 29 hearing | Not listed: Epic Fury, May 5 briefing | Settled yes: Epic Fury, May 12 hearing | Not listed: Epic Fury, May 29 speech | Not listed: Epic Fury, Jun 14 episode | Settled no: Epic Fury, Jul 21 hearing | Not listed: Epic Fury, Sep 13 episode | 2/367% | 2/367% | 53%n=3 from settlement history |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Apr 8 briefing | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Apr 16 briefing | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Apr 24 briefing | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Apr 29 hearing | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, May 5 briefing | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, May 12 hearing | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, May 29 speech | Settled yes: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Jun 14 episode | Settled yes: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Jul 21 hearing | Settled no: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Sep 13 episode | 2/367% | 2/367% | 47%n=3 from settlement history |
| Civilian / School | Settled no: Civilian / School, Apr 8 briefing | Not listed: Civilian / School, Apr 16 briefing | Not listed: Civilian / School, Apr 24 briefing | Not listed: Civilian / School, Apr 29 hearing | Not listed: Civilian / School, May 5 briefing | Not listed: Civilian / School, May 12 hearing | Not listed: Civilian / School, May 29 speech | Not listed: Civilian / School, Jun 14 episode | Not listed: Civilian / School, Jul 21 hearing | Not listed: Civilian / School, Sep 13 episode | 0/10% | 1/333% | 39%n=3 from settlement history |
| NATO | Not listed: NATO, Apr 8 briefing | Not listed: NATO, Apr 16 briefing | Not listed: NATO, Apr 24 briefing | Settled no: NATO, Apr 29 hearing | Not listed: NATO, May 5 briefing | Settled no: NATO, May 12 hearing | Settled yes: NATO, May 29 speech | Not listed: NATO, Jun 14 episode | Not listed: NATO, Jul 21 hearing | Not listed: NATO, Sep 13 episode | 1/333% | 1/333% | 46%n=3 from settlement history |
| Space Force | Not listed: Space Force, Apr 8 briefing | Not listed: Space Force, Apr 16 briefing | Not listed: Space Force, Apr 24 briefing | Settled yes: Space Force, Apr 29 hearing | Not listed: Space Force, May 5 briefing | Settled no: Space Force, May 12 hearing | Not listed: Space Force, May 29 speech | Not listed: Space Force, Jun 14 episode | Not listed: Space Force, Jul 21 hearing | Not listed: Space Force, Sep 13 episode | 1/250% | 1/333% | 45%n=3 from settlement history |
| Anthropic / Claude | Not listed: Anthropic / Claude, Apr 8 briefing | Not listed: Anthropic / Claude, Apr 16 briefing | Not listed: Anthropic / Claude, Apr 24 briefing | Settled no: Anthropic / Claude, Apr 29 hearing | Not listed: Anthropic / Claude, May 5 briefing | Settled no: Anthropic / Claude, May 12 hearing | Not listed: Anthropic / Claude, May 29 speech | Not listed: Anthropic / Claude, Jun 14 episode | Not listed: Anthropic / Claude, Jul 21 hearing | Not listed: Anthropic / Claude, Sep 13 episode | 0/20% | 0/30% | 32%n=3 from settlement history |
| CIA | Settled no: CIA, Apr 8 briefing | Settled no: CIA, Apr 16 briefing | Not listed: CIA, Apr 24 briefing | Not listed: CIA, Apr 29 hearing | Not listed: CIA, May 5 briefing | Not listed: CIA, May 12 hearing | Not listed: CIA, May 29 speech | Not listed: CIA, Jun 14 episode | Not listed: CIA, Jul 21 hearing | Settled no: CIA, Sep 13 episode | 0/30% | 0/30% | 26%n=3 from settlement history |
| Pakistan | Not listed: Pakistan, Apr 8 briefing | Settled no: Pakistan, Apr 16 briefing | Settled no: Pakistan, Apr 24 briefing | Not listed: Pakistan, Apr 29 hearing | Settled no: Pakistan, May 5 briefing | Not listed: Pakistan, May 12 hearing | Not listed: Pakistan, May 29 speech | Not listed: Pakistan, Jun 14 episode | Not listed: Pakistan, Jul 21 hearing | Not listed: Pakistan, Sep 13 episode | 0/30% | 0/30% | 28%n=3 from settlement history |
| Tomahawk | Not listed: Tomahawk, Apr 8 briefing | Not listed: Tomahawk, Apr 16 briefing | Not listed: Tomahawk, Apr 24 briefing | Not listed: Tomahawk, Apr 29 hearing | Not listed: Tomahawk, May 5 briefing | Not listed: Tomahawk, May 12 hearing | Not listed: Tomahawk, May 29 speech | Not listed: Tomahawk, Jun 14 episode | Not listed: Tomahawk, Jul 21 hearing | Not listed: Tomahawk, Sep 13 episode | – | 0/30% | 30%n=3 from settlement history |
| Trump | Not listed: Trump, Apr 8 briefing | Not listed: Trump, Apr 16 briefing | Not listed: Trump, Apr 24 briefing | Not listed: Trump, Apr 29 hearing | Not listed: Trump, May 5 briefing | Not listed: Trump, May 12 hearing | Not listed: Trump, May 29 speech | Not listed: Trump, Jun 14 episode | Not listed: Trump, Jul 21 hearing | Not listed: Trump, Sep 13 episode | – | 2/2100% | 58%n=2 from settlement history |
| Biden | Not listed: Biden, Apr 8 briefing | Not listed: Biden, Apr 16 briefing | Not listed: Biden, Apr 24 briefing | Not listed: Biden, Apr 29 hearing | Not listed: Biden, May 5 briefing | Not listed: Biden, May 12 hearing | Not listed: Biden, May 29 speech | Settled yes: Biden, Jun 14 episode | Not listed: Biden, Jul 21 hearing | Not listed: Biden, Sep 13 episode | 1/1100% | 1/250% | 47%n=2 from settlement history |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 12Settled results come from the venues. Our own transcript counts appear here once transcripts arrive for these appearances. How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will Pete Hegseth say during 60 Minutes? | no transcript | 14 | 0 yes · 14 no | – |
| Jul 21, 2026 | HearingWhat will Pete Hegseth say during the President's Funding Request request? | no transcript | 16 | 11 yes · 5 no | – |
| Jun 14, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will Pete Hegseth say during Face the Nation? | no transcript | 14 | 8 yes · 6 no | – |
| May 29, 2026 | SpeechWhat will Pete Hegseth say during his IISS Shangri-La Dialogue address? | no transcript | 17 | 11 yes · 6 no | – |
| May 12, 2026 | HearingWhat will Pete Hegseth say during the Budget Hearing on Department of Defense? | no transcript | 19 | 5 yes · 14 no | – |
| May 5, 2026 | Press briefingWhat will Pete Hegseth say during his Press Briefing? | no transcript | 18 | 8 yes · 10 no | – |
| Apr 29, 2026 | HearingWhat will Pete Hegseth say during the Department of Defense budget hearing? | no transcript | 21 | 14 yes · 7 no | – |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Press briefingWhat will Pete Hegseth say during the Pentagon Press Briefing? | no transcript | 18 | 6 yes · 12 no | – |
| Apr 16, 2026 | Press briefingWhat will Pete Hegseth say during the Pentagon Press Briefing? | no transcript | 18 | 7 yes · 11 no | – |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Press briefingWhat will Pete Hegseth say during the Iran Press Briefing? | no transcript | 33 | 16 yes · 17 no | – |
| Apr 7, 2026 | Press briefingWhat will Pete Hegseth say during the Iran Press Briefing? | no transcript | 18 | 1 yes · 17 no | – |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Press conferenceWhat will Pete Hegseth say during the Operation Epic Fury Press Conference? | no transcript | 18 | 8 yes · 10 no | – |
Citeparrot.markets, “Pete Hegseth: mention market word history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/pete-hegseth (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/pete-hegseth · words: /api/v1/history?entity=pete-hegseth · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP