Rand Paul
As of Oct 24, 2026, Kalshi has settled 39 word markets on Rand Paul’s appearances since 2026, on 30 different words.
History Wall
1–30 of 30, most settled first| Word | Apr 22interview | May 13episode | Jul 29latest | Last 3 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | Settled no: Trump, Apr 22 interview | Settled yes: Trump, May 13 episode | Settled yes: Trump, Jul 29 episode | 2/367% | 2/367% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Biden | Not listed: Biden, Apr 22 interview | Settled no: Biden, May 13 episode | Settled yes: Biden, Jul 29 episode | 1/250% | 1/250% | – |
| China / Chinese | Not listed: China / Chinese, Apr 22 interview | Settled yes: China / Chinese, May 13 episode | Settled no: China / Chinese, Jul 29 episode | 1/250% | 1/250% | – |
| Democrat | Settled yes: Democrat, Apr 22 interview | Settled no: Democrat, May 13 episode | Not listed: Democrat, Jul 29 episode | 1/250% | 1/250% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Settled no: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Apr 22 interview | Settled no: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, May 13 episode | Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Jul 29 episode | 0/20% | 0/20% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Bipartisan | Settled no: Bipartisan, Apr 22 interview | Settled no: Bipartisan, May 13 episode | Not listed: Bipartisan, Jul 29 episode | 0/20% | 0/20% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Settled no: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Apr 22 interview | Settled no: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, May 13 episode | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Jul 29 episode | 0/20% | 0/20% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Healthcare | Settled no: Healthcare, Apr 22 interview | Settled no: Healthcare, May 13 episode | Not listed: Healthcare, Jul 29 episode | 0/20% | 0/20% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Congress / CIA | Not listed: Congress / CIA, Apr 22 interview | Settled yes: Congress / CIA, May 13 episode | Not listed: Congress / CIA, Jul 29 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | – |
| Crime / Criminal | Not listed: Crime / Criminal, Apr 22 interview | Not listed: Crime / Criminal, May 13 episode | Settled yes: Crime / Criminal, Jul 29 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | – |
| Fauci | Not listed: Fauci, Apr 22 interview | Settled yes: Fauci, May 13 episode | Not listed: Fauci, Jul 29 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | – |
| Gain of Function | Not listed: Gain of Function, Apr 22 interview | Not listed: Gain of Function, May 13 episode | Settled yes: Gain of Function, Jul 29 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | – |
| Hantavirus / Virus | Not listed: Hantavirus / Virus, Apr 22 interview | Settled yes: Hantavirus / Virus, May 13 episode | Not listed: Hantavirus / Virus, Jul 29 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | – |
| Pardon / Pardoned | Not listed: Pardon / Pardoned, Apr 22 interview | Not listed: Pardon / Pardoned, May 13 episode | Settled yes: Pardon / Pardoned, Jul 29 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | – |
| Science / Scientist | Not listed: Science / Scientist, Apr 22 interview | Settled yes: Science / Scientist, May 13 episode | Not listed: Science / Scientist, Jul 29 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | – |
| Blockade | Settled no: Blockade, Apr 22 interview | Not listed: Blockade, May 13 episode | Not listed: Blockade, Jul 29 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Ceasefire | Settled no: Ceasefire, Apr 22 interview | Not listed: Ceasefire, May 13 episode | Not listed: Ceasefire, Jul 29 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Diary | Not listed: Diary, Apr 22 interview | Not listed: Diary, May 13 episode | Settled no: Diary, Jul 29 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| FISA | Settled no: FISA, Apr 22 interview | Not listed: FISA, May 13 episode | Not listed: FISA, Jul 29 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Hemp | Settled no: Hemp, Apr 22 interview | Not listed: Hemp, May 13 episode | Not listed: Hemp, Jul 29 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Hormuz | Settled no: Hormuz, Apr 22 interview | Not listed: Hormuz, May 13 episode | Not listed: Hormuz, Jul 29 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Leak / Leaked | Not listed: Leak / Leaked, Apr 22 interview | Not listed: Leak / Leaked, May 13 episode | Settled no: Leak / Leaked, Jul 29 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Mask / Masked | Not listed: Mask / Masked, Apr 22 interview | Not listed: Mask / Masked, May 13 episode | Settled no: Mask / Masked, Jul 29 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| National Security | Not listed: National Security, Apr 22 interview | Settled no: National Security, May 13 episode | Not listed: National Security, Jul 29 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Obama | Not listed: Obama, Apr 22 interview | Not listed: Obama, May 13 episode | Settled no: Obama, Jul 29 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Obstructing / Obstruction | Not listed: Obstructing / Obstruction, Apr 22 interview | Not listed: Obstructing / Obstruction, May 13 episode | Settled no: Obstructing / Obstruction, Jul 29 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Save Act / Save America Act | Settled no: Save Act / Save America Act, Apr 22 interview | Not listed: Save Act / Save America Act, May 13 episode | Not listed: Save Act / Save America Act, Jul 29 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Tariff | Settled no: Tariff, Apr 22 interview | Not listed: Tariff, May 13 episode | Not listed: Tariff, Jul 29 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Vaccine / Vaccination | Not listed: Vaccine / Vaccination, Apr 22 interview | Not listed: Vaccine / Vaccination, May 13 episode | Settled no: Vaccine / Vaccination, Jul 29 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Wuhan | Not listed: Wuhan, Apr 22 interview | Not listed: Wuhan, May 13 episode | Settled no: Wuhan, Jul 29 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 3Settled results come from the venues. Our own transcript counts appear here once transcripts arrive for these appearances. How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will Rand Paul say during Fox News: The Will Cain Show? | no transcript | 14 | 5 yes · 9 no | – |
| May 13, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will Rand Paul say during The Will Cain Show? | no transcript | 14 | 6 yes · 8 no | – |
| Apr 22, 2026 | InterviewWhat will Rand Paul say during his MS NOW interview? | no transcript | 14 | 1 yes · 13 no | – |
Citeparrot.markets, “Rand Paul: mention market word history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/rand-paul (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/rand-paul · words: /api/v1/history?entity=rand-paul · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP