George W. Bush
As of Oct 24, 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket have settled 23 word markets on George W. Bush’s appearances since 2025, on 22 different words.
History Wall
1–23 of 23, most settled first| Word | Nov 20 ’25remarks | Nov 21latest | Last 2 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Family / Friend4+ times | Settled yes: Family / Friend 4+, Nov 20 ’25 remarks | Not listed: Family / Friend 4+, Nov 21 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Honor | Not listed: Honor, Nov 20 ’25 remarks | Settled yes: Honor, Nov 21 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Wyoming | Not listed: Wyoming, Nov 20 ’25 remarks | Settled yes: Wyoming, Nov 21 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| 9-11 | Settled no: 9-11, Nov 20 ’25 remarks | Not listed: 9-11, Nov 21 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| America / American10+ times | Settled no: America / American 10+, Nov 20 ’25 remarks | Not listed: America / American 10+, Nov 21 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Darth Vader | Not listed: Darth Vader, Nov 20 ’25 remarks | Settled no: Darth Vader, Nov 21 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Iraq / Desert Storm | Settled no: Iraq / Desert Storm, Nov 20 ’25 remarks | Not listed: Iraq / Desert Storm, Nov 21 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Foreign Policy | Not listed: Foreign Policy, Nov 20 ’25 remarks | Settled no: Foreign Policy, Nov 21 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| God5+ times | Settled no: God 5+, Nov 20 ’25 remarks | Not listed: God 5+, Nov 21 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Golf / Hunter | Settled no: Golf / Hunter, Nov 20 ’25 remarks | Not listed: Golf / Hunter, Nov 21 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Great father / Good Man | Settled no: Great father / Good Man, Nov 20 ’25 remarks | Not listed: Great father / Good Man, Nov 21 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Iraq | Not listed: Iraq, Nov 20 ’25 remarks | Settled no: Iraq, Nov 21 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Middle East | Not listed: Middle East, Nov 20 ’25 remarks | Settled no: Middle East, Nov 21 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Military | Not listed: Military, Nov 20 ’25 remarks | Settled no: Military, Nov 21 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| National Security | Not listed: National Security, Nov 20 ’25 remarks | Settled no: National Security, Nov 21 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Patriot | Settled no: Patriot, Nov 20 ’25 remarks | Not listed: Patriot, Nov 21 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Peace | Not listed: Peace, Nov 20 ’25 remarks | Settled no: Peace, Nov 21 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Peace3+ times | Settled no: Peace 3+, Nov 20 ’25 remarks | Not listed: Peace 3+, Nov 21 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Nov 20 ’25 remarks | Settled no: Shutdown / Shut Down, Nov 21 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Terror / Terrorist / Terrorism | Not listed: Terror / Terrorist / Terrorism, Nov 20 ’25 remarks | Settled no: Terror / Terrorist / Terrorism, Nov 21 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Trump | Not listed: Trump, Nov 20 ’25 remarks | Settled no: Trump, Nov 21 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| War on Terror | Settled no: War on Terror, Nov 20 ’25 remarks | Not listed: War on Terror, Nov 21 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Weapons of Mass Destruction / WMD | Settled no: Weapons of Mass Destruction / WMD, Nov 20 ’25 remarks | Not listed: Weapons of Mass Destruction / WMD, Nov 21 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 2Settled results come from the venues. Our own transcript counts appear here once transcripts arrive for these appearances. How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 21, 2025 | SpeechWhat will George W. Bush say during Dick Cheney's funeral? | no transcript | 12 | 2 yes · 10 no | – |
| Nov 20, 2025 | RemarksWhat will Bush say during Dick Cheney's memorial on November 20? | no transcript | 11 | 1 yes · 10 no | – |
Citeparrot.markets, “George W. Bush: mention market word history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/george-w-bush (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/george-w-bush · words: /api/v1/history?entity=george-w-bush · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP