Will JD Vance say “Biden”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Biden” at 50 of 73 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 14, 2025 (68%), most recently on Oct 19, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 67% (n=73, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 rallies have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4. No rallies among them yet.

67%from settlement history only · n=73Next: Rally, Oct 26, 2026 · counts: named speaker only
Last 10
7/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes no yes yes no no
Streak
not said the last 2 times
Counts
named speaker only
Market
81¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

JD Vance

Biden

Probability
67% · n=73
Settled
50/73 (68%)
Last 5 transcripts
said in 4 of 5

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

JD VancespeakerVice President JD Vance Briefs Members of the Media, Sep. 3, 2026 · Sep 3, 2026 · 2:02In transcript

…here had talked about, we had for a very long time, the Biden administration, draining the Strategic Petroleum Reserve purely for the purpose of lowering…

JD VancespeakerVice President JD Vance Briefs Members of the Media, May 19, 2026 · May 19, 2026 · 11:30In transcript

…he felt were actually subject to this lawfare. I mean, if Hunter Biden wants to apply for this particular fund, he is welcome to. It's…

JD VanceotherPress Briefing by Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt and the Vice President, Jan. 8, 2026 · Jan 8, 2026 · 10:46In transcript

…deporting the millions of criminal aliens that were let in during the Biden administration. So number one, we have to say, as a matter of…

JD VanceotherPress Secretary Karoline Leavitt Briefs Members of the Media, Oct. 1, 2025 · Oct 1, 2025 · 5:59In transcript

…how we can solve the healthcare crisis that we inherited from the Biden administration." But it's one thing to say that we should solve the…

What will JD Vance say during his fraud press conference? · settled no

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What will JD Vance say during his announcement? · settled no

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in North Carolina? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will JD Vance say during his CBS Town Hall? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will JD Vance say during his rally in Michigan? · settled no

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in Ohio? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will JD Vance say during his rally in Alaska? · settled yes

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What will JD Vance say during Fox News: Hannity? · settled yes

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What will JD Vance say during his Midterm Rally in Florida? · settled yes

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What will JD Vance say during his Midterm Rally in Texas? · settled yes

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Every settled listing

newest first · 60 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResultOur count
Oct 21, 2026BidenKalshiNo–
Oct 20, 2026BidenKalshiNo–
Oct 19, 2026BidenKalshiYes–
Oct 17, 2026BidenKalshiYes–
Oct 15, 2026BidenKalshiNo–
Oct 9, 2026BidenKalshiYes–
Oct 5, 2026BidenKalshiYes–
Oct 1, 2026BidenKalshiYes–
Oct 1, 2026BidenKalshiYes–
Sep 30, 2026BidenKalshiYes–
Sep 29, 2026BidenKalshiYes–
Sep 21, 2026BidenKalshiYes–
Sep 18, 2026BidenKalshiYes–
Sep 14, 2026BidenKalshiYes–
Sep 14, 2026BidenKalshiYes–
Sep 9, 2026BidenKalshiYes–
Sep 3, 2026BidenKalshiYes–
Aug 31, 2026BidenKalshiYes–
Aug 24, 2026BidenKalshiYes–
Aug 21, 2026BidenKalshiYes–
Aug 8, 2026BidenKalshiNo–
Aug 5, 2026BidenKalshiNo–
Jul 8, 2026BidenKalshiYes–
Jul 1, 2026BidenKalshiYes–
Jun 30, 2026BidenKalshiNo–
Jun 18, 2026BidenKalshiNo0
Jun 17, 2026BidenKalshiNo–
Jun 17, 2026BidenKalshiNo–
Jun 16, 2026BidenKalshiNo–
Jun 16, 2026BidenKalshiYes–
Jun 16, 2026BidenKalshiNo–
Jun 16, 2026BidenKalshiYes–
Jun 15, 2026BidenKalshiNo–
Jun 14, 2026BidenKalshiNo–
Jun 8, 2026BidenKalshiYes–
Jun 4, 2026BidenKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
May 29, 2026BidenKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
May 28, 2026BidenKalshiNo–
May 26, 2026BidenKalshiNo–
May 18, 2026BidenKalshiYes–
May 16, 2026BidenKalshiYes–
May 15, 2026BidenKalshiYes–
May 14, 2026BidenKalshiYes–
May 13, 2026BidenKalshiYes–
May 5, 2026BidenKalshiYes–
Apr 30, 2026BidenKalshiVoid (did not qualify)–
Apr 29, 2026BidenKalshiYes–
Apr 14, 2026BidenKalshiYes–
Apr 7, 2026BidenKalshiNo–
Apr 7, 2026BidenKalshiNo–
Apr 1, 2026BidenKalshiNo–
Mar 27, 2026BidenKalshiYes–
Mar 18, 2026BidenKalshiYes–
Mar 17, 2026BidenKalshiNo–
Mar 13, 2026BidenKalshiYes–
Mar 9, 2026BidenKalshiYes–
Mar 3, 2026BidenKalshiNo–
Feb 27, 2026BidenKalshiYes–
Feb 26, 2026BidenKalshiNo–
Feb 18, 2026BidenKalshiYes–

Questions

How often does JD Vance say “Biden”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Biden” at 50 of 73 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 14, 2025 (68%), most recently on Oct 19, 2026.
What is the probability JD Vance says “Biden” next time?
67%, from settlement history (n=73). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Biden’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/biden (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=biden · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP