News mention markets

Name: News mention markets: word history and probabilities
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 23, 2026, Parrot covers 458 Kalshi and Polymarket news mention-market events (2 open) for 31 people, shows and companies, with 209 transcripts.

TV news and talk: MS NOW, Fox News, CNN, evening news, Sunday shows, front pages.

Data updated Oct 23, 2026, 21:36 UTC· Source: Kalshi, Polymarket, transcripts

Numbers: events in the next 14 days

Coming up

next 14 days · 2 events

K = Kalshi, P = Polymarket: mid prices, up to about 20 minutes old. Not advice.

said / not said on each settled listing
no appearance
chance it is said next time

Fri, Oct 23

Today1 event

World News TonightTV episode

6:30 pm ET

World News Tonight: times each word was said per appearance, oldest first, and the probability for the next one
Word	7 listings before the last	6 listings before the last	5 listings before the last	4 listings before the last	3 listings before the last	2 listings before the last	1 listing before the last	the last settled listing	Chance next time: probability
Trump5+K 82¢	Trump: said, 7 listings before the last	Trump: said, 6 listings before the last	Trump: said, 5 listings before the last	Trump: not said, 4 listings before the last	Trump: said, 3 listings before the last	Trump: said, 2 listings before the last	Trump: said, 1 listing before the last	Trump: said, the last settled listing	73% from settlement history
PutinK 57¢	Putin: no appearance in 7 listings before the last	Putin: no appearance in 6 listings before the last	Putin: no appearance in 5 listings before the last	Putin: not said, 4 listings before the last	Putin: said, 3 listings before the last	Putin: said, 2 listings before the last	Putin: said, 1 listing before the last	Putin: said, the last settled listing	63% from settlement history
RussiaK 94¢	Russia: no appearance in 7 listings before the last	Russia: no appearance in 6 listings before the last	Russia: not said, 5 listings before the last	Russia: not said, 4 listings before the last	Russia: said, 3 listings before the last	Russia: said, 2 listings before the last	Russia: said, 1 listing before the last	Russia: said, the last settled listing	62% from settlement history
DieselK 56¢	Diesel: said, 7 listings before the last	Diesel: not said, 6 listings before the last	Diesel: not said, 5 listings before the last	Diesel: said, 4 listings before the last	Diesel: said, 3 listings before the last	Diesel: said, 2 listings before the last	Diesel: said, 1 listing before the last	Diesel: not said, the last settled listing	56% from settlement history
WitkoffK 12¢	Witkoff: no appearance in 7 listings before the last	Witkoff: no appearance in 6 listings before the last	Witkoff: no appearance in 5 listings before the last	Witkoff: no appearance in 4 listings before the last	Witkoff: no appearance in 3 listings before the last	Witkoff: no appearance in 2 listings before the last	Witkoff: said, 1 listing before the last	Witkoff: said, the last settled listing	56% from settlement history
RamaswamyK 26¢	Ramaswamy: no appearance in 7 listings before the last	Ramaswamy: no appearance in 6 listings before the last	Ramaswamy: no appearance in 5 listings before the last	Ramaswamy: no appearance in 4 listings before the last	Ramaswamy: no appearance in 3 listings before the last	Ramaswamy: no appearance in 2 listings before the last	Ramaswamy: no appearance in 1 listing before the last	Ramaswamy: said, the last settled listing	– too little history for a probability

Kalshi+11 more words Last transcript · Oct 22, 2026

Sun, Oct 25

1 event

Meet the PressTV episode

Meet the Press: times each word was said per appearance, oldest first, and the probability for the next one
Word	7 listings before the last	6 listings before the last	5 listings before the last	4 listings before the last	3 listings before the last	2 listings before the last	1 listing before the last	the last settled listing	Chance next time: probability
HealthcareK 45¢	Healthcare: no appearance in 7 listings before the last	Healthcare: not said, 6 listings before the last	Healthcare: said, 5 listings before the last	Healthcare: not said, 4 listings before the last	Healthcare: said, 3 listings before the last	Healthcare: said, 2 listings before the last	Healthcare: said, 1 listing before the last	Healthcare: said, the last settled listing	57% from settlement history
Trump3+K 34¢	Trump: no appearance in 7 listings before the last	Trump: not said, 6 listings before the last	Trump: not said, 5 listings before the last	Trump: said, 4 listings before the last	Trump: not said, 3 listings before the last	Trump: said, 2 listings before the last	Trump: said, 1 listing before the last	Trump: said, the last settled listing	55% from settlement history
AIK 22¢	AI: no appearance in 7 listings before the last	AI: not said, 6 listings before the last	AI: not said, 5 listings before the last	AI: not said, 4 listings before the last	AI: not said, 3 listings before the last	AI: not said, 2 listings before the last	AI: said, 1 listing before the last	AI: said, the last settled listing	52% from settlement history
NuclearK 38¢	Nuclear: no appearance in 7 listings before the last	Nuclear: no appearance in 6 listings before the last	Nuclear: no appearance in 5 listings before the last	Nuclear: no appearance in 4 listings before the last	Nuclear: no appearance in 3 listings before the last	Nuclear: said, 2 listings before the last	Nuclear: not said, 1 listing before the last	Nuclear: said, the last settled listing	51% from settlement history
OilK 60¢	Oil: said, 7 listings before the last	Oil: not said, 6 listings before the last	Oil: said, 5 listings before the last	Oil: not said, 4 listings before the last	Oil: said, 3 listings before the last	Oil: said, 2 listings before the last	Oil: said, 1 listing before the last	Oil: not said, the last settled listing	49% from settlement history
ChinaK 42¢	China: no appearance in 7 listings before the last	China: no appearance in 6 listings before the last	China: no appearance in 5 listings before the last	China: no appearance in 4 listings before the last	China: said, 3 listings before the last	China: not said, 2 listings before the last	China: not said, 1 listing before the last	China: said, the last settled listing	47% from settlement history

Kalshi+8 more words Last transcript · Sep 27, 2026

Recently settled

The Last Word
Thu, Oct 22 · TV episode
8 of 15 words said
Our count matched 15 of 15
- FarmYes · 6×
- GasYes · 4×
- AffordYes · 2×
- BillionaireYes · 2×
World News Tonight
Thu, Oct 22 · TV episode
5 of 15 words said
Our count matched 14 of 15
- TrumpYes · 15×
- RussiaYes · 12×
- RamaswamyYes · 3×
- PutinYes · 1×
The Last Word
Wed, Oct 21 · TV episode
6 of 13 words said
Our count matched 13 of 13
- TrumpYes · 4×
- 2028Yes · 3×
- CorruptYes · 1×
- HealthcareYes · 1×
World News Tonight
Wed, Oct 21 · TV episode
11 of 18 words said
Our count matched 18 of 18
- RussiaYes · 16×
- PutinYes · 10×
- TrumpYes · 8×
- World SeriesYes · 6×
The Briefing
Wed, Oct 21 · TV episode
4 of 13 words said
Settled by the venues; no transcript count yet
- 2028Yes
- HealthcareYes
- RepublicanYes
- TrumpYes
The Weeknight
Mon, Oct 19 · TV episode
6 of 12 words said
Our count matched 12 of 12
- TrumpYes · 5×
- HealthcareYes · 3×
- CorruptYes · 2×
- ElectionYes · 2×
NYT front page
Sun, Oct 18 · This week (October 12 - October 18)
12 of 15 words said
Our count matched 14 of 15
- TrumpYes · 10×
- ExecutionYes · 2×
- IranYes · 2×
- JusticeYes · 2×
Saturday in America
Sat, Oct 17 · TV episode
0 of 19 words said
Settled by the venues; no transcript count yet
- AINo
- America FirstNo
- BarNo
- BidenNo

Who is covered

23, most active first

World News Tonight76 events · 41 transcripts1 open
Meet the Press26 events · 5 transcripts1 open
The Last Word81 events · 15 transcripts
Fox News64 events · 4 transcripts
The Briefing47 events · 12 transcripts
The Rachel Maddow Show25 events
Face the Nation23 events · 41 transcripts
NYT front page22 events · 10 transcripts
The Weeknight21 events · 5 transcripts
All In14 events · 7 transcripts
Fox News Sunday11 events · 4 transcripts
60 Minutes8 events
NewsNation8 events
Hannity6 events · 1 transcript
Special Report5 events · 3 transcripts
Anderson Cooper 360°4 events · 44 transcripts
Fareed Zakaria GPS4 events · 9 transcripts
Saturday in America4 events · 4 transcripts
The Beat4 events · 2 transcripts
Bret Baier3 events
Sean Hannity3 events
Jesse Watters Primetime2 events · 2 transcripts
Rachel Maddow2 events

Most-tracked words

by settled listings; probability = calibrated p for the next listing

News: most-tracked words
Word	Who	Last 10 settled	Said when listed	Next time
Trump 5+ timesWorld News Tonight	World News Tonight	9/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes no yes yes yes yes	48/6376%	73%n=63 from settlement history
RepublicanThe Last Word	The Last Word	5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes no yes no yes no yes no	29/5949%	45%n=59 from settlement history
Iran 3+ timesWorld News Tonight	World News Tonight	6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no yes yes yes yes yes no	36/5664%	54%n=56 from settlement history
OilWorld News Tonight	World News Tonight	6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no yes yes yes yes yes yes no	35/5366%	61%n=53 from settlement history
AffordThe Last Word	The Last Word	6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no no yes yes no no yes	13/5026%	41%n=50 from settlement history
CorruptThe Last Word	The Last Word	5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no no no yes yes yes yes	21/4349%	52%n=43 from settlement history
RepublicanThe Briefing	The Briefing	4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes yes no no no no yes yes	30/4173%	51%n=41 from settlement history
TrumpFox News	Fox News	6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no yes yes yes no yes yes yes	26/4163%	52%n=41 from settlement history
CorruptThe Briefing	The Briefing	3/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes no yes yes no no no no	15/3345%	38%n=33 from settlement history
AffordThe Briefing	The Briefing	2/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no yes no no no no no no	12/3336%	31%n=33 from settlement history
DemocratFox News	Fox News	7/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes yes yes no no yes yes yes	19/2966%	48%n=29 from settlement history
CorruptThe Rachel Maddow Show	The Rachel Maddow Show	5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes yes yes yes yes no no no	13/2454%	40%n=24 from settlement history
AIFox News	Fox News	0/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no no no no no	2/248%	25%n=24 from settlement history
TrumpNYT front page	NYT front page	10/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes	18/18100%	72%n=18 from settlement history
OilThe Rachel Maddow Show	The Rachel Maddow Show	5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no yes yes yes no no yes yes	10/1856%	43%n=18 from settlement history
EpsteinThe Rachel Maddow Show	The Rachel Maddow Show	2/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no yes no no no no no	3/1718%	35%n=17 from settlement history
OilMeet the Press	Meet the Press	5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes no yes no yes yes yes no	9/1656%	49%n=16 from settlement history
RepublicanThe Weeknight	The Weeknight	5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no no no yes no yes no	6/1638%	39%n=16 from settlement history
AINYT front page	NYT front page	10/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes	14/14100%	64%n=14 from settlement history
TrumpThe Weeknight	The Weeknight	8/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes yes yes yes yes no yes yes	12/1486%	50%n=14 from settlement history

Citeparrot.markets, “News mention markets”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/news (CC BY 4.0)