James Fishback
As of Oct 24, 2026, Kalshi has settled 53 word markets on James Fishback’s appearances since 2026, on 38 different words.
History Wall
1–39 of 39, most settled first| Word | Mar 18remarks | Jun 4conference | Jul 2debate | Aug 6latest | Last 4 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIPAC | Settled yes: AIPAC, Mar 18 remarks | Settled yes: AIPAC, Jun 4 conference | Settled no: AIPAC, Jul 2 debate | Settled no: AIPAC, Aug 6 conference | 2/450% | 2/450% | 44%n=4 from settlement history |
| Fraud | Settled no: Fraud, Mar 18 remarks | Settled no: Fraud, Jun 4 conference | Settled yes: Fraud, Jul 2 debate | Settled no: Fraud, Aug 6 conference | 1/425% | 1/425% | 35%n=4 from settlement history |
| Israel / Israeli | Settled yes: Israel / Israeli, Mar 18 remarks | Settled no: Israel / Israeli, Jun 4 conference | Settled no: Israel / Israeli, Jul 2 debate | Settled no: Israel / Israeli, Aug 6 conference | 1/425% | 1/425% | 32%n=4 from settlement history |
| Trump | Settled yes: Trump, Mar 18 remarks | Settled yes: Trump, Jun 4 conference | Not listed: Trump, Jul 2 debate | Settled yes: Trump, Aug 6 conference | 3/3100% | 3/3100% | 65%n=3 from settlement history |
| DeSantis | Not listed: DeSantis, Mar 18 remarks | Settled yes: DeSantis, Jun 4 conference | Settled yes: DeSantis, Jul 2 debate | Settled no: DeSantis, Aug 6 conference | 2/367% | 2/367% | 50%n=3 from settlement history |
| Data Center | Not listed: Data Center, Mar 18 remarks | Settled no: Data Center, Jun 4 conference | Settled yes: Data Center, Jul 2 debate | Not listed: Data Center, Aug 6 conference | 1/250% | 1/250% | 51%n=2 from settlement history |
| Abort / Aborted / Abortion | Not listed: Abort / Aborted / Abortion, Mar 18 remarks | Not listed: Abort / Aborted / Abortion, Jun 4 conference | Settled yes: Abort / Aborted / Abortion, Jul 2 debate | Not listed: Abort / Aborted / Abortion, Aug 6 conference | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Settled yes: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Mar 18 remarks | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Jun 4 conference | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Jul 2 debate | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Aug 6 conference | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| America First | Settled yes: America First, Mar 18 remarks | Not listed: America First, Jun 4 conference | Not listed: America First, Jul 2 debate | Not listed: America First, Aug 6 conference | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Bibi / Netanyahu | Settled yes: Bibi / Netanyahu, Mar 18 remarks | Not listed: Bibi / Netanyahu, Jun 4 conference | Not listed: Bibi / Netanyahu, Jul 2 debate | Not listed: Bibi / Netanyahu, Aug 6 conference | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Byron / Donalds | Not listed: Byron / Donalds, Mar 18 remarks | Settled yes: Byron / Donalds, Jun 4 conference | Not listed: Byron / Donalds, Jul 2 debate | Not listed: Byron / Donalds, Aug 6 conference | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Communist / Communism | Not listed: Communist / Communism, Mar 18 remarks | Not listed: Communist / Communism, Jun 4 conference | Settled yes: Communist / Communism, Jul 2 debate | Not listed: Communist / Communism, Aug 6 conference | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Crime / Criminal | Not listed: Crime / Criminal, Mar 18 remarks | Settled yes: Crime / Criminal, Jun 4 conference | Not listed: Crime / Criminal, Jul 2 debate | Not listed: Crime / Criminal, Aug 6 conference | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Cuba / Cuban | Not listed: Cuba / Cuban, Mar 18 remarks | Not listed: Cuba / Cuban, Jun 4 conference | Settled yes: Cuba / Cuban, Jul 2 debate | Not listed: Cuba / Cuban, Aug 6 conference | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| DEI / Woke | Not listed: DEI / Woke, Mar 18 remarks | Not listed: DEI / Woke, Jun 4 conference | Settled yes: DEI / Woke, Jul 2 debate | Not listed: DEI / Woke, Aug 6 conference | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Settled yes: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Mar 18 remarks | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Jun 4 conference | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Jul 2 debate | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Aug 6 conference | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Immigrant / Immigration | Not listed: Immigrant / Immigration, Mar 18 remarks | Settled yes: Immigrant / Immigration, Jun 4 conference | Not listed: Immigrant / Immigration, Jul 2 debate | Not listed: Immigrant / Immigration, Aug 6 conference | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Nuclear | Settled yes: Nuclear, Mar 18 remarks | Not listed: Nuclear, Jun 4 conference | Not listed: Nuclear, Jul 2 debate | Not listed: Nuclear, Aug 6 conference | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Property Tax | Not listed: Property Tax, Mar 18 remarks | Not listed: Property Tax, Jun 4 conference | Settled yes: Property Tax, Jul 2 debate | Not listed: Property Tax, Aug 6 conference | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Republican | Not listed: Republican, Mar 18 remarks | Not listed: Republican, Jun 4 conference | Not listed: Republican, Jul 2 debate | Settled yes: Republican, Aug 6 conference | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Socialist / Socialism | Not listed: Socialist / Socialism, Mar 18 remarks | Not listed: Socialist / Socialism, Jun 4 conference | Settled yes: Socialist / Socialism, Jul 2 debate | Not listed: Socialist / Socialism, Aug 6 conference | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Whistleblower | Not listed: Whistleblower, Mar 18 remarks | Not listed: Whistleblower, Jun 4 conference | Not listed: Whistleblower, Jul 2 debate | Settled yes: Whistleblower, Aug 6 conference | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Abortion | Not listed: Abortion, Mar 18 remarks | Settled no: Abortion, Jun 4 conference | Not listed: Abortion, Jul 2 debate | Not listed: Abortion, Aug 6 conference | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Settled no: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Mar 18 remarks | Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Jun 4 conference | Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Jul 2 debate | Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Aug 6 conference | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Alien | Not listed: Alien, Mar 18 remarks | Settled no: Alien, Jun 4 conference | Not listed: Alien, Jul 2 debate | Not listed: Alien, Aug 6 conference | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Benjamin / Netanyahu | Not listed: Benjamin / Netanyahu, Mar 18 remarks | Not listed: Benjamin / Netanyahu, Jun 4 conference | Settled no: Benjamin / Netanyahu, Jul 2 debate | Not listed: Benjamin / Netanyahu, Aug 6 conference | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Not listed: Corrupt / Corruption, Mar 18 remarks | Not listed: Corrupt / Corruption, Jun 4 conference | Not listed: Corrupt / Corruption, Jul 2 debate | Settled no: Corrupt / Corruption, Aug 6 conference | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Debate | Not listed: Debate, Mar 18 remarks | Not listed: Debate, Jun 4 conference | Not listed: Debate, Jul 2 debate | Settled no: Debate, Aug 6 conference | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Democrat | Not listed: Democrat, Mar 18 remarks | Not listed: Democrat, Jun 4 conference | Not listed: Democrat, Jul 2 debate | Settled no: Democrat, Aug 6 conference | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Epstein | Settled no: Epstein, Mar 18 remarks | Not listed: Epstein, Jun 4 conference | Not listed: Epstein, Jul 2 debate | Not listed: Epstein, Aug 6 conference | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| H-1B | Settled no: H-1B, Mar 18 remarks | Not listed: H-1B, Jun 4 conference | Not listed: H-1B, Jul 2 debate | Not listed: H-1B, Aug 6 conference | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Hamas / Hezbollah | Settled no: Hamas / Hezbollah, Mar 18 remarks | Not listed: Hamas / Hezbollah, Jun 4 conference | Not listed: Hamas / Hezbollah, Jul 2 debate | Not listed: Hamas / Hezbollah, Aug 6 conference | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Healthcare | Not listed: Healthcare, Mar 18 remarks | Not listed: Healthcare, Jun 4 conference | Settled no: Healthcare, Jul 2 debate | Not listed: Healthcare, Aug 6 conference | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Iran / Iranian | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Mar 18 remarks | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Jun 4 conference | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Jul 2 debate | Settled no: Iran / Iranian, Aug 6 conference | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| OnlyFans | Not listed: OnlyFans, Mar 18 remarks | Not listed: OnlyFans, Jun 4 conference | Settled no: OnlyFans, Jul 2 debate | Not listed: OnlyFans, Aug 6 conference | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Teen Takeover | Not listed: Teen Takeover, Mar 18 remarks | Not listed: Teen Takeover, Jun 4 conference | Settled no: Teen Takeover, Jul 2 debate | Not listed: Teen Takeover, Aug 6 conference | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Trans / Transgender | Not listed: Trans / Transgender, Mar 18 remarks | Not listed: Trans / Transgender, Jun 4 conference | Settled no: Trans / Transgender, Jul 2 debate | Not listed: Trans / Transgender, Aug 6 conference | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Trump3+ times | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Mar 18 remarks | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Jun 4 conference | Settled no: Trump (3+ times), Jul 2 debate | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Aug 6 conference | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Waffle House | Settled no: Waffle House, Mar 18 remarks | Not listed: Waffle House, Jun 4 conference | Not listed: Waffle House, Jul 2 debate | Not listed: Waffle House, Aug 6 conference | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 4Settled results come from the venues. Our own transcript counts appear here once transcripts arrive for these appearances. How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | Press conferenceWhat will James Fishback say during his Press Conference? | no transcript | 12 | 3 yes · 9 no | – |
| Jul 2, 2026 | DebateWhat will James Fishback say during The Future of Florida | Live Governor Debate? | no transcript | 18 | 9 yes · 9 no | – |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Press conferenceWhat will James Fishback say during his press conference? | no transcript | 12 | 6 yes · 6 no | – |
| Mar 18, 2026 | RemarksWhat will James Fishback say during his remarks on War with Iran? | no transcript | 15 | 8 yes · 7 no | – |
Citeparrot.markets, “James Fishback: mention market word history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/james-fishback (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/james-fishback · words: /api/v1/history?entity=james-fishback · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP