Podcasts mention markets

Name: Podcasts mention markets: word history and probabilities
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 23, 2026, Parrot covers 228 Kalshi and Polymarket podcast mention-market events (3 open) for 25 people, shows and companies, with 82 transcripts.

Podcasts, YouTube creators and streamers, political commentators.

Data updated Oct 23, 2026, 23:51 UTC· Source: Kalshi, Polymarket, transcripts

Numbers: events in the next 14 days

Coming up

next 14 days · 3 events

K = Kalshi, P = Polymarket: mid prices, up to about 20 minutes old. Not advice.

said / not said on each settled listing
no appearance
chance it is said next time

Sat, Oct 24

Tomorrow1 event

MrBeastNext gaming YouTube video

By Sat, Oct 24

MrBeast: times each word was said per appearance, oldest first, and the probability for the next one
Word	7 listings before the last	6 listings before the last	5 listings before the last	4 listings before the last	3 listings before the last	2 listings before the last	1 listing before the last	the last settled listing	Chance next time: probability
MinecraftP 51¢	Minecraft: said, 7 listings before the last	Minecraft: said, 6 listings before the last	Minecraft: not said, 5 listings before the last	Minecraft: not said, 4 listings before the last	Minecraft: said, 3 listings before the last	Minecraft: said, 2 listings before the last	Minecraft: said, 1 listing before the last	Minecraft: said, the last settled listing	61% from settlement history
HideP 50¢	Hide: no appearance in 7 listings before the last	Hide: no appearance in 6 listings before the last	Hide: no appearance in 5 listings before the last	Hide: no appearance in 4 listings before the last	Hide: not said, 3 listings before the last	Hide: said, 2 listings before the last	Hide: said, 1 listing before the last	Hide: said, the last settled listing	53% from settlement history
BuildP 50¢	Build: said, 7 listings before the last	Build: said, 6 listings before the last	Build: not said, 5 listings before the last	Build: not said, 4 listings before the last	Build: said, 3 listings before the last	Build: said, 2 listings before the last	Build: said, 1 listing before the last	Build: not said, the last settled listing	52% from settlement history
FeastableP 50¢	Feastable: not said, 7 listings before the last	Feastable: not said, 6 listings before the last	Feastable: not said, 5 listings before the last	Feastable: said, 4 listings before the last	Feastable: not said, 3 listings before the last	Feastable: said, 2 listings before the last	Feastable: said, 1 listing before the last	Feastable: not said, the last settled listing	39% from settlement history
FightP 50¢	Fight: no appearance in 7 listings before the last	Fight: said, 6 listings before the last	Fight: not said, 5 listings before the last	Fight: not said, 4 listings before the last	Fight: said, 3 listings before the last	Fight: said, 2 listings before the last	Fight: not said, 1 listing before the last	Fight: not said, the last settled listing	39% from settlement history
PrizeP 50¢	Prize: not said, 7 listings before the last	Prize: said, 6 listings before the last	Prize: not said, 5 listings before the last	Prize: not said, 4 listings before the last	Prize: not said, 3 listings before the last	Prize: not said, 2 listings before the last	Prize: not said, 1 listing before the last	Prize: said, the last settled listing	36% from settlement history

Polymarket+5 more words Last transcript · Oct 17, 2026

Wed, Oct 28

1 event

Lemonade StandEpisode

By Wed, Oct 28

Lemonade Stand: times each word was said per appearance, oldest first, and the probability for the next one
Word	7 listings before the last	6 listings before the last	5 listings before the last	4 listings before the last	3 listings before the last	2 listings before the last	1 listing before the last	the last settled listing	Chance next time: probability
MoneyP 74¢	Money: said, 7 listings before the last	Money: said, 6 listings before the last	Money: said, 5 listings before the last	Money: said, 4 listings before the last	Money: said, 3 listings before the last	Money: said, 2 listings before the last	Money: said, 1 listing before the last	Money: said, the last settled listing	93% from settlement history
DifferentP 74¢	Different: said, 7 listings before the last	Different: said, 6 listings before the last	Different: said, 5 listings before the last	Different: said, 4 listings before the last	Different: said, 3 listings before the last	Different: said, 2 listings before the last	Different: said, 1 listing before the last	Different: said, the last settled listing	86% from settlement history
ProblemP 74¢	Problem: said, 7 listings before the last	Problem: said, 6 listings before the last	Problem: said, 5 listings before the last	Problem: said, 4 listings before the last	Problem: said, 3 listings before the last	Problem: said, 2 listings before the last	Problem: said, 1 listing before the last	Problem: said, the last settled listing	86% from settlement history
IranP 26¢	Iran: no appearance in 7 listings before the last	Iran: said, 6 listings before the last	Iran: said, 5 listings before the last	Iran: said, 4 listings before the last	Iran: said, 3 listings before the last	Iran: said, 2 listings before the last	Iran: said, 1 listing before the last	Iran: not said, the last settled listing	84% from settlement history
CarP 74¢	Car: said, 7 listings before the last	Car: said, 6 listings before the last	Car: not said, 5 listings before the last	Car: said, 4 listings before the last	Car: said, 3 listings before the last	Car: said, 2 listings before the last	Car: said, 1 listing before the last	Car: said, the last settled listing	68% from settlement history
RedP 74¢	Red: said, 7 listings before the last	Red: not said, 6 listings before the last	Red: said, 5 listings before the last	Red: said, 4 listings before the last	Red: said, 3 listings before the last	Red: said, 2 listings before the last	Red: not said, 1 listing before the last	Red: said, the last settled listing	63% from settlement history

Polymarket+7 more words Last transcript · Oct 21, 2026

Sun, Nov 1

1 event

The Joe Rogan ExperienceEpisode

By Sun, Nov 1

The Joe Rogan Experience: times each word was said per appearance, oldest first, and the probability for the next one
Word	7 listings before the last	6 listings before the last	5 listings before the last	4 listings before the last	3 listings before the last	2 listings before the last	1 listing before the last	the last settled listing	Chance next time: probability
Fuck10+P 80¢	Fuck: said, 7 listings before the last	Fuck: said, 6 listings before the last	Fuck: said, 5 listings before the last	Fuck: said, 4 listings before the last	Fuck: said, 3 listings before the last	Fuck: said, 2 listings before the last	Fuck: said, 1 listing before the last	Fuck: said, the last settled listing	80% from settlement history
Right5+P 97¢	Right: no appearance in 7 listings before the last	Right: no appearance in 6 listings before the last	Right: no appearance in 5 listings before the last	Right: no appearance in 4 listings before the last	Right: no appearance in 3 listings before the last	Right: no appearance in 2 listings before the last	Right: said, 1 listing before the last	Right: said, the last settled listing	65% from settlement history
Shit5+P 85¢	Shit: no appearance in 7 listings before the last	Shit: no appearance in 6 listings before the last	Shit: no appearance in 5 listings before the last	Shit: no appearance in 4 listings before the last	Shit: no appearance in 3 listings before the last	Shit: no appearance in 2 listings before the last	Shit: said, 1 listing before the last	Shit: said, the last settled listing	65% from settlement history
AlienP 56¢	Alien: not said, 7 listings before the last	Alien: not said, 6 listings before the last	Alien: not said, 5 listings before the last	Alien: said, 4 listings before the last	Alien: said, 3 listings before the last	Alien: said, 2 listings before the last	Alien: not said, 1 listing before the last	Alien: said, the last settled listing	54% from settlement history
ElonP 50¢	Elon: said, 7 listings before the last	Elon: not said, 6 listings before the last	Elon: not said, 5 listings before the last	Elon: said, 4 listings before the last	Elon: said, 3 listings before the last	Elon: said, 2 listings before the last	Elon: not said, 1 listing before the last	Elon: not said, the last settled listing	49% from settlement history
ChimpP 42¢	Chimp: no appearance in 7 listings before the last	Chimp: no appearance in 6 listings before the last	Chimp: no appearance in 5 listings before the last	Chimp: no appearance in 4 listings before the last	Chimp: no appearance in 3 listings before the last	Chimp: no appearance in 2 listings before the last	Chimp: said, 1 listing before the last	Chimp: not said, the last settled listing	48% from settlement history

Polymarket+4 more words Last transcript · Oct 18, 2026

Recently settled

Lemonade Stand
Wed, Oct 21 · Episode
8 of 13 words said
Our count matched 13 of 13
- AIYes · 35×
- MoneyYes · 19×
- DifferentYes · 9×
- ProblemYes · 5×
The Joe Rogan Experience
Sun, Oct 18 · Episode
6 of 13 words said
Our count matched 13 of 13
- RightYes · 120×
- PeopleYes · 116×
- FuckYes · 45×
- HundredYes · 37×
MrBeast
Sat, Oct 17 · Next YouTube video
3 of 12 words said
Our count matched 12 of 12
- HundredYes · 34×
- ChallengeYes · 15×
- DollarYes · 14×
- AfricaNo · 0×
All-In Podcast
Fri, Oct 16 · Episode
5 of 10 words said
Our count matched 10 of 10
- HundredYes · 32×
- IPOYes · 12×
- MicrosoftYes · 11×
- MassiveYes · 8×
Lemonade Stand
Wed, Oct 14 · Episode
15 of 20 words said
Our count matched 20 of 20
- ThinkYes · 104×
- AIYes · 84×
- MoneyYes · 41×
- ActuallyYes · 33×
The Joe Rogan Experience
Sun, Oct 11 · Episode
7 of 15 words said
Our count matched 15 of 15
- RightYes · 261×
- PeopleYes · 183×
- FuckYes · 33×
- BlueYes · 9×
MrBeast
Sat, Oct 10 · Next gaming YouTube video
4 of 13 words said
Settled by the venues; no transcript count yet
- FeastableYes
- HideYes
- MinecraftYes
- PrizeYes
All-In Podcast
Fri, Oct 9 · Episode
8 of 13 words said
Our count matched 13 of 13
- AIYes · 58×
- HundredYes · 34×
- AnthropicYes · 25×
- CompanyYes · 8×

Who is covered

14, most active first

MrBeast60 events · 6 transcripts1 open
The Joe Rogan Experience43 events · 9 transcripts1 open
Lemonade Stand26 events · 9 transcripts1 open
All-In Podcast38 events · 4 transcripts
TBPN15 events · 54 transcripts
Candace Owens14 events
Nick Shirley5 events
Call Her Daddy4 events
Dan Bongino4 events
Erika Kirk4 events
Steve Bannon4 events
Tucker Carlson3 events
Hot Ones2 events
Jack Posobiec2 events

Most-tracked words

by settled listings; probability = calibrated p for the next listing

Podcasts: most-tracked words
Word	Who	Last 10 settled	Said when listed	Next time
FeastableMrBeast	MrBeast	4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no no yes no yes yes no	17/4141%	39%n=41 from settlement history
ContestantMrBeast	MrBeast	3/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no no no no no yes no no	17/3549%	38%n=35 from settlement history
PrizeMrBeast	MrBeast	3/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no yes no no no no no yes	13/3339%	36%n=33 from settlement history
NvidiaAll-In Podcast	All-In Podcast	8/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes no	21/2972%	68%n=29 from settlement history
AlienThe Joe Rogan Experience	The Joe Rogan Experience	5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no no yes yes yes no yes	14/2654%	54%n=26 from settlement history
People 100+ timesThe Joe Rogan Experience	The Joe Rogan Experience	8/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes no yes yes yes yes yes yes	22/2588%	82%n=25 from settlement history
Fuck 10+ timesThe Joe Rogan Experience	The Joe Rogan Experience	9/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes	18/2186%	80%n=21 from settlement history
RedLemonade Stand	Lemonade Stand	8/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no yes yes yes yes no yes	13/1968%	63%n=19 from settlement history
BlueLemonade Stand	Lemonade Stand	7/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes yes no yes yes no yes yes	12/1963%	59%n=19 from settlement history
ChinaLemonade Stand	Lemonade Stand	9/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes no yes yes yes yes	16/1794%	88%n=17 from settlement history
SoftwareAll-In Podcast	All-In Podcast	10/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes	15/15100%	92%n=15 from settlement history
Hundred 10+ timesAll-In Podcast	All-In Podcast	10/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes	15/15100%	92%n=15 from settlement history
PropagandaCandace Owens	Candace Owens	5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no yes yes no no yes no yes	6/1250%	48%n=12 from settlement history
FraudCandace Owens	Candace Owens	4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no yes no yes no no yes no	4/1233%	36%n=12 from settlement history
AICandace Owens	Candace Owens	7/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes no yes yes yes yes yes no	7/1164%	58%n=11 from settlement history
TrumpTBPN	TBPN	1/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no yes no	1/520%	31%n=5 from settlement history
RelationshipCall Her Daddy	Call Her Daddy	4/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes	4/4100%	73%n=4 from settlement history
FamilyCall Her Daddy	Call Her Daddy	4/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes	4/4100%	73%n=4 from settlement history
LearingNick Shirley	Nick Shirley	3/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no	3/475%	52%n=4 from settlement history
ToxicCall Her Daddy	Call Her Daddy	3/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no	3/475%	60%n=4 from settlement history

Citeparrot.markets, “Podcasts mention markets”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/podcasts (CC BY 4.0)