Steve Hilton
As of Oct 24, 2026, Kalshi has settled 56 word markets on Steve Hilton’s appearances since 2026, on 32 different words.
History Wall
1–33 of 33, most settled first| Word | Apr 22debate | May 5debate | Jun 10interview | Oct 17latest | Last 4 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fraud | Settled yes: Fraud, Apr 22 debate | Settled yes: Fraud, May 5 debate | Settled no: Fraud, Jun 10 interview | Settled no: Fraud, Oct 17 interview | 2/450% | 2/450% | 36%n=4 from settlement history |
| Homeless / Homelessness | Settled yes: Homeless / Homelessness, Apr 22 debate | Not listed: Homeless / Homelessness, May 5 debate | Settled yes: Homeless / Homelessness, Jun 10 interview | Settled yes: Homeless / Homelessness, Oct 17 interview | 3/3100% | 3/3100% | 62%n=3 from settlement history |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Settled yes: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Apr 22 debate | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, May 5 debate | Settled yes: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Jun 10 interview | Settled no: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Oct 17 interview | 2/367% | 2/367% | 44%n=3 from settlement history |
| Mental Health | Settled yes: Mental Health, Apr 22 debate | Settled no: Mental Health, May 5 debate | Not listed: Mental Health, Jun 10 interview | Settled yes: Mental Health, Oct 17 interview | 2/367% | 2/367% | 51%n=3 from settlement history |
| Trump | Settled no: Trump, Apr 22 debate | Settled yes: Trump, May 5 debate | Settled yes: Trump, Jun 10 interview | Not listed: Trump, Oct 17 interview | 2/367% | 2/367% | 50%n=3 from settlement history |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Apr 22 debate | Settled yes: AI / Artificial Intelligence, May 5 debate | Settled no: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Jun 10 interview | Settled no: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Oct 17 interview | 1/333% | 1/333% | 31%n=3 from settlement history |
| California Dream | Not listed: California Dream, Apr 22 debate | Settled yes: California Dream, May 5 debate | Settled no: California Dream, Jun 10 interview | Settled no: California Dream, Oct 17 interview | 1/333% | 1/333% | 31%n=3 from settlement history |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Settled no: Corrupt / Corruption, Apr 22 debate | Settled yes: Corrupt / Corruption, May 5 debate | Not listed: Corrupt / Corruption, Jun 10 interview | Settled no: Corrupt / Corruption, Oct 17 interview | 1/333% | 1/333% | 33%n=3 from settlement history |
| Newsom | Settled yes: Newsom, Apr 22 debate | Not listed: Newsom, May 5 debate | Settled no: Newsom, Jun 10 interview | Settled no: Newsom, Oct 17 interview | 1/333% | 1/333% | 31%n=3 from settlement history |
| Affordable / Affordability | Not listed: Affordable / Affordability, Apr 22 debate | Settled no: Affordable / Affordability, May 5 debate | Not listed: Affordable / Affordability, Jun 10 interview | Settled no: Affordable / Affordability, Oct 17 interview | 0/20% | 0/20% | 26%n=2 from settlement history |
| Billionaire | Settled no: Billionaire, Apr 22 debate | Not listed: Billionaire, May 5 debate | Not listed: Billionaire, Jun 10 interview | Settled no: Billionaire, Oct 17 interview | 0/20% | 0/20% | 26%n=2 from settlement history |
| Pratt | Not listed: Pratt, Apr 22 debate | Not listed: Pratt, May 5 debate | Settled no: Pratt, Jun 10 interview | Settled no: Pratt, Oct 17 interview | 0/20% | 0/20% | 25%n=2 from settlement history |
| Wildfire | Not listed: Wildfire, Apr 22 debate | Not listed: Wildfire, May 5 debate | Settled no: Wildfire, Jun 10 interview | Settled no: Wildfire, Oct 17 interview | 0/20% | 0/20% | 25%n=2 from settlement history |
| Xavier / Becerra | Not listed: Xavier / Becerra, Apr 22 debate | Not listed: Xavier / Becerra, May 5 debate | Settled yes: Xavier / Becerra, Jun 10 interview | Not listed: Xavier / Becerra, Oct 17 interview | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| CEQA / Environmental | Settled yes: CEQA / Environmental, Apr 22 debate | Not listed: CEQA / Environmental, May 5 debate | Not listed: CEQA / Environmental, Jun 10 interview | Not listed: CEQA / Environmental, Oct 17 interview | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Common Sense | Not listed: Common Sense, Apr 22 debate | Settled yes: Common Sense, May 5 debate | Not listed: Common Sense, Jun 10 interview | Not listed: Common Sense, Oct 17 interview | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Democrat | Settled yes: Democrat, Apr 22 debate | Not listed: Democrat, May 5 debate | Not listed: Democrat, Jun 10 interview | Not listed: Democrat, Oct 17 interview | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Electric / EV | Not listed: Electric / EV, Apr 22 debate | Settled yes: Electric / EV, May 5 debate | Not listed: Electric / EV, Jun 10 interview | Not listed: Electric / EV, Oct 17 interview | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Healthcare | Not listed: Healthcare, Apr 22 debate | Settled yes: Healthcare, May 5 debate | Not listed: Healthcare, Jun 10 interview | Not listed: Healthcare, Oct 17 interview | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Iraq / Iraqi | Not listed: Iraq / Iraqi, Apr 22 debate | Settled yes: Iraq / Iraqi, May 5 debate | Not listed: Iraq / Iraqi, Jun 10 interview | Not listed: Iraq / Iraqi, Oct 17 interview | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Oil / Refinery | Not listed: Oil / Refinery, Apr 22 debate | Settled yes: Oil / Refinery, May 5 debate | Not listed: Oil / Refinery, Jun 10 interview | Not listed: Oil / Refinery, Oct 17 interview | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Regulation / Regulator / Regulatory | Settled yes: Regulation / Regulator / Regulatory, Apr 22 debate | Not listed: Regulation / Regulator / Regulatory, May 5 debate | Not listed: Regulation / Regulator / Regulatory, Jun 10 interview | Not listed: Regulation / Regulator / Regulatory, Oct 17 interview | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Biden | Not listed: Biden, Apr 22 debate | Not listed: Biden, May 5 debate | Settled no: Biden, Jun 10 interview | Not listed: Biden, Oct 17 interview | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Crime / Criminal | Not listed: Crime / Criminal, Apr 22 debate | Not listed: Crime / Criminal, May 5 debate | Not listed: Crime / Criminal, Jun 10 interview | Settled no: Crime / Criminal, Oct 17 interview | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Crisis | Not listed: Crisis, Apr 22 debate | Settled no: Crisis, May 5 debate | Not listed: Crisis, Jun 10 interview | Not listed: Crisis, Oct 17 interview | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| ICE / DHS | Settled no: ICE / DHS, Apr 22 debate | Not listed: ICE / DHS, May 5 debate | Not listed: ICE / DHS, Jun 10 interview | Not listed: ICE / DHS, Oct 17 interview | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Fentanyl | Not listed: Fentanyl, Apr 22 debate | Not listed: Fentanyl, May 5 debate | Not listed: Fentanyl, Jun 10 interview | Settled no: Fentanyl, Oct 17 interview | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Flat Tax | Not listed: Flat Tax, Apr 22 debate | Settled no: Flat Tax, May 5 debate | Not listed: Flat Tax, Jun 10 interview | Not listed: Flat Tax, Oct 17 interview | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Florida / Texas | Settled no: Florida / Texas, Apr 22 debate | Not listed: Florida / Texas, May 5 debate | Not listed: Florida / Texas, Jun 10 interview | Not listed: Florida / Texas, Oct 17 interview | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Fox | Settled no: Fox , Apr 22 debate | Not listed: Fox , May 5 debate | Not listed: Fox , Jun 10 interview | Not listed: Fox , Oct 17 interview | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Sacramento | Not listed: Sacramento, Apr 22 debate | Not listed: Sacramento, May 5 debate | Settled no: Sacramento, Jun 10 interview | Not listed: Sacramento, Oct 17 interview | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Swalwell | Settled no: Swalwell, Apr 22 debate | Not listed: Swalwell, May 5 debate | Not listed: Swalwell, Jun 10 interview | Not listed: Swalwell, Oct 17 interview | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Trump3+ times | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Apr 22 debate | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), May 5 debate | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Jun 10 interview | Settled no: Trump (3+ times), Oct 17 interview | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 4Settled results come from the venues. Our own transcript counts appear here once transcripts arrive for these appearances. How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | InterviewWhat will Steve Hilton say during Saturday in America? | no transcript | 16 | 2 yes · 14 no | – |
| Jun 10, 2026 | InterviewWhat will Steve Hilton say during The Story with Martha MacCallum? | no transcript | 13 | 4 yes · 9 no | – |
| May 5, 2026 | DebateWhat will Steve Hilton say during the California gubernatorial debate? | no transcript | 15 | 10 yes · 5 no | – |
| Apr 22, 2026 | DebateWhat will Steve Hilton say during the CA Governor Debate? | no transcript | 16 | 8 yes · 8 no | – |
Citeparrot.markets, “Steve Hilton: mention market word history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/steve-hilton (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/steve-hilton · words: /api/v1/history?entity=steve-hilton · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP