Josh Shapiro
As of Oct 23, 2026, Kalshi has settled 70 word markets on Josh Shapiro’s appearances since 2025, on 41 different words; most reliably said: “Trump” (6 of 6).
History Wall
1–40 of 41, most settled first · page 1 of 2| Word | Dec 9 ’25episode | Jan 30 ’26episode | Feb 4speech | Apr 8panel | Aug 18interview | Sep 16latest | Last 6 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trumpevery time | Said: Trump, Dec 9 ’25 episode | Said: Trump, Jan 30 ’26 episode | Said: Trump, Feb 4 speech | Said: Trump, Apr 8 panel | Said: Trump, Aug 18 interview | 7 times: Trump, Sep 16 episode, counts as said | 6/6100% | 6/6100% | 63%n=3 from settlement history |
| Republican | Said: Republican, Dec 9 ’25 episode | Not listed: Republican, Jan 30 ’26 episode | Not listed: Republican, Feb 4 speech | Said: Republican, Apr 8 panel | Not said: Republican, Aug 18 interview | 0 times: Republican, Sep 16 episode | 2/450% | 2/450% | 42%n=2 from settlement history |
| Immigrant / Immigrationnever said | Not listed: Immigrant / Immigration, Dec 9 ’25 episode | Not said: Immigrant / Immigration, Jan 30 ’26 episode | Not said: Immigrant / Immigration, Feb 4 speech | Not said: Immigrant / Immigration, Apr 8 panel | Not said: Immigrant / Immigration, Aug 18 interview | Not listed: Immigrant / Immigration, Sep 16 episode | 0/40% | 0/40% | 30%n=3 from settlement history |
| Election | Not listed: Election, Dec 9 ’25 episode | Not listed: Election, Jan 30 ’26 episode | Not listed: Election, Feb 4 speech | Said: Election, Apr 8 panel | Said: Election, Aug 18 interview | 1 time: Election, Sep 16 episode, counts as said | 3/3100% | 3/3100% | 60%n=2 from settlement history |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Dec 9 ’25 episode | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Jan 30 ’26 episode | Said: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Feb 4 speech | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Apr 8 panel | Said: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Aug 18 interview | 0 times: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Sep 16 episode | 2/367% | 2/367% | 60%n=2 from settlement history |
| Antisemitism / Antisemitic | Not listed: Antisemitism / Antisemitic, Dec 9 ’25 episode | Said: Antisemitism / Antisemitic, Jan 30 ’26 episode | Not listed: Antisemitism / Antisemitic, Feb 4 speech | Said: Antisemitism / Antisemitic, Apr 8 panel | Not listed: Antisemitism / Antisemitic, Aug 18 interview | 0 times: Antisemitism / Antisemitic, Sep 16 episode | 2/367% | 2/367% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Healthcare | Not listed: Healthcare, Dec 9 ’25 episode | Not listed: Healthcare, Jan 30 ’26 episode | Not listed: Healthcare, Feb 4 speech | Said: Healthcare, Apr 8 panel | Not said: Healthcare, Aug 18 interview | 1 time: Healthcare, Sep 16 episode, counts as said | 2/367% | 2/367% | 42%n=2 from settlement history |
| 2028 / Campaign | Not listed: 2028 / Campaign, Dec 9 ’25 episode | Not listed: 2028 / Campaign, Jan 30 ’26 episode | Not listed: 2028 / Campaign, Feb 4 speech | Said: 2028 / Campaign, Apr 8 panel | Not said: 2028 / Campaign, Aug 18 interview | 0 times: 2028 / Campaign, Sep 16 episode | 1/333% | 1/333% | 42%n=2 from settlement history |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Not listed: Corrupt / Corruption, Dec 9 ’25 episode | Not listed: Corrupt / Corruption, Jan 30 ’26 episode | Not listed: Corrupt / Corruption, Feb 4 speech | Not listed: Corrupt / Corruption, Apr 8 panel | Not said: Corrupt / Corruption, Aug 18 interview | 2 times: Corrupt / Corruption, Sep 16 episode, counts as said | 1/250% | 1/250% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Data Center | Not listed: Data Center, Dec 9 ’25 episode | Not listed: Data Center, Jan 30 ’26 episode | Not listed: Data Center, Feb 4 speech | Not listed: Data Center, Apr 8 panel | Said: Data Center, Aug 18 interview | 0 times: Data Center, Sep 16 episode | 1/250% | 1/250% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Dec 9 ’25 episode | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Jan 30 ’26 episode | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Feb 4 speech | Said: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Apr 8 panel | Not said: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Aug 18 interview | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Sep 16 episode | 1/250% | 1/250% | 42%n=2 from settlement history |
| ICE / National Guard | Not listed: ICE / National Guard, Dec 9 ’25 episode | Not said: ICE / National Guard, Jan 30 ’26 episode | Said: ICE / National Guard, Feb 4 speech | Not listed: ICE / National Guard, Apr 8 panel | Not listed: ICE / National Guard, Aug 18 interview | Not listed: ICE / National Guard, Sep 16 episode | 1/250% | 1/250% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Iran / Iranian | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Dec 9 ’25 episode | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Jan 30 ’26 episode | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Feb 4 speech | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Apr 8 panel | Not said: Iran / Iranian, Aug 18 interview | 1 time: Iran / Iranian, Sep 16 episode, counts as said | 1/250% | 1/250% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Affordable / Affordability | Not listed: Affordable / Affordability, Dec 9 ’25 episode | Not listed: Affordable / Affordability, Jan 30 ’26 episode | Not listed: Affordable / Affordability, Feb 4 speech | Not listed: Affordable / Affordability, Apr 8 panel | Not said: Affordable / Affordability, Aug 18 interview | 0 times: Affordable / Affordability, Sep 16 episode | 0/20% | 0/20% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Democracy | Not listed: Democracy, Dec 9 ’25 episode | Not listed: Democracy, Jan 30 ’26 episode | Not said: Democracy, Feb 4 speech | Not said: Democracy, Apr 8 panel | Not listed: Democracy, Aug 18 interview | Not listed: Democracy, Sep 16 episode | 0/20% | 0/20% | 38%n=2 from settlement history |
| Democrat | Not listed: Democrat, Dec 9 ’25 episode | Not listed: Democrat, Jan 30 ’26 episode | Not listed: Democrat, Feb 4 speech | Not listed: Democrat, Apr 8 panel | Not said: Democrat, Aug 18 interview | 0 times: Democrat, Sep 16 episode | 0/20% | 0/20% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Book / Memoir | Not listed: Book / Memoir, Dec 9 ’25 episode | Said: Book / Memoir, Jan 30 ’26 episode | Not listed: Book / Memoir, Feb 4 speech | Not listed: Book / Memoir, Apr 8 panel | Not listed: Book / Memoir, Aug 18 interview | Not listed: Book / Memoir, Sep 16 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | – |
| Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis | Not listed: Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis, Dec 9 ’25 episode | Not listed: Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis, Jan 30 ’26 episode | Said: Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis, Feb 4 speech | Not listed: Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis, Apr 8 panel | Not listed: Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis, Aug 18 interview | Not listed: Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis, Sep 16 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| ICE / TSA | Not listed: ICE / TSA, Dec 9 ’25 episode | Not listed: ICE / TSA, Jan 30 ’26 episode | Not listed: ICE / TSA, Feb 4 speech | Said: ICE / TSA, Apr 8 panel | Not listed: ICE / TSA, Aug 18 interview | Not listed: ICE / TSA, Sep 16 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Manufacturing | Not listed: Manufacturing, Dec 9 ’25 episode | Not listed: Manufacturing, Jan 30 ’26 episode | Said: Manufacturing, Feb 4 speech | Not listed: Manufacturing, Apr 8 panel | Not listed: Manufacturing, Aug 18 interview | Not listed: Manufacturing, Sep 16 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Minimum Wage | Not listed: Minimum Wage, Dec 9 ’25 episode | Not listed: Minimum Wage, Jan 30 ’26 episode | Said: Minimum Wage, Feb 4 speech | Not listed: Minimum Wage, Apr 8 panel | Not listed: Minimum Wage, Aug 18 interview | Not listed: Minimum Wage, Sep 16 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| New Jersey | Not listed: New Jersey, Dec 9 ’25 episode | Not listed: New Jersey, Jan 30 ’26 episode | Said: New Jersey, Feb 4 speech | Not listed: New Jersey, Apr 8 panel | Not listed: New Jersey, Aug 18 interview | Not listed: New Jersey, Sep 16 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Tariff | Not listed: Tariff, Dec 9 ’25 episode | Not listed: Tariff, Jan 30 ’26 episode | Said: Tariff, Feb 4 speech | Not listed: Tariff, Apr 8 panel | Not listed: Tariff, Aug 18 interview | Not listed: Tariff, Sep 16 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Violent / Violence | Not listed: Violent / Violence, Dec 9 ’25 episode | Said: Violent / Violence, Jan 30 ’26 episode | Not listed: Violent / Violence, Feb 4 speech | Not listed: Violent / Violence, Apr 8 panel | Not listed: Violent / Violence, Aug 18 interview | Not listed: Violent / Violence, Sep 16 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | – |
| Walz | Not listed: Walz, Dec 9 ’25 episode | Said: Walz, Jan 30 ’26 episode | Not listed: Walz, Feb 4 speech | Not listed: Walz, Apr 8 panel | Not listed: Walz, Aug 18 interview | Not listed: Walz, Sep 16 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | – |
| 2028 | Not said: 2028, Dec 9 ’25 episode | Not listed: 2028, Jan 30 ’26 episode | Not listed: 2028, Feb 4 speech | Not listed: 2028, Apr 8 panel | Not listed: 2028, Aug 18 interview | Not listed: 2028, Sep 16 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| 2028 / Midterm / Campaign | Not listed: 2028 / Midterm / Campaign, Dec 9 ’25 episode | Not said: 2028 / Midterm / Campaign, Jan 30 ’26 episode | Not listed: 2028 / Midterm / Campaign, Feb 4 speech | Not listed: 2028 / Midterm / Campaign, Apr 8 panel | Not listed: 2028 / Midterm / Campaign, Aug 18 interview | Not listed: 2028 / Midterm / Campaign, Sep 16 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Fire / Arson | Not listed: Fire / Arson, Dec 9 ’25 episode | Not said: Fire / Arson, Jan 30 ’26 episode | Not listed: Fire / Arson, Feb 4 speech | Not listed: Fire / Arson, Apr 8 panel | Not listed: Fire / Arson, Aug 18 interview | Not listed: Fire / Arson, Sep 16 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Energy / Electricity | Not listed: Energy / Electricity, Dec 9 ’25 episode | Not listed: Energy / Electricity, Jan 30 ’26 episode | Not listed: Energy / Electricity, Feb 4 speech | Not listed: Energy / Electricity, Apr 8 panel | Not listed: Energy / Electricity, Aug 18 interview | 0 times: Energy / Electricity, Sep 16 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Epstein | Not said: Epstein, Dec 9 ’25 episode | Not listed: Epstein, Jan 30 ’26 episode | Not listed: Epstein, Feb 4 speech | Not listed: Epstein, Apr 8 panel | Not listed: Epstein, Aug 18 interview | Not listed: Epstein, Sep 16 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Extremist / Extremism | Not said: Extremist / Extremism, Dec 9 ’25 episode | Not listed: Extremist / Extremism, Jan 30 ’26 episode | Not listed: Extremist / Extremism, Feb 4 speech | Not listed: Extremist / Extremism, Apr 8 panel | Not listed: Extremist / Extremism, Aug 18 interview | Not listed: Extremist / Extremism, Sep 16 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Fetterman | Not listed: Fetterman, Dec 9 ’25 episode | Not said: Fetterman, Jan 30 ’26 episode | Not listed: Fetterman, Feb 4 speech | Not listed: Fetterman, Apr 8 panel | Not listed: Fetterman, Aug 18 interview | Not listed: Fetterman, Sep 16 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Fund / Funding | Not said: Fund / Funding, Dec 9 ’25 episode | Not listed: Fund / Funding, Jan 30 ’26 episode | Not listed: Fund / Funding, Feb 4 speech | Not listed: Fund / Funding, Apr 8 panel | Not listed: Fund / Funding, Aug 18 interview | Not listed: Fund / Funding, Sep 16 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Hydrogen | Not listed: Hydrogen, Dec 9 ’25 episode | Not listed: Hydrogen, Jan 30 ’26 episode | Not said: Hydrogen, Feb 4 speech | Not listed: Hydrogen, Apr 8 panel | Not listed: Hydrogen, Aug 18 interview | Not listed: Hydrogen, Sep 16 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Inflation | Not listed: Inflation, Dec 9 ’25 episode | Not listed: Inflation, Jan 30 ’26 episode | Not said: Inflation, Feb 4 speech | Not listed: Inflation, Apr 8 panel | Not listed: Inflation, Aug 18 interview | Not listed: Inflation, Sep 16 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Iran | Not listed: Iran, Dec 9 ’25 episode | Not listed: Iran, Jan 30 ’26 episode | Not listed: Iran, Feb 4 speech | Not said: Iran, Apr 8 panel | Not listed: Iran, Aug 18 interview | Not listed: Iran, Sep 16 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Kamala | Not said: Kamala, Dec 9 ’25 episode | Not listed: Kamala, Jan 30 ’26 episode | Not listed: Kamala, Feb 4 speech | Not listed: Kamala, Apr 8 panel | Not listed: Kamala, Aug 18 interview | Not listed: Kamala, Sep 16 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Peace / Peaceful | Not listed: Peace / Peaceful, Dec 9 ’25 episode | Not said: Peace / Peaceful, Jan 30 ’26 episode | Not listed: Peace / Peaceful, Feb 4 speech | Not listed: Peace / Peaceful, Apr 8 panel | Not listed: Peace / Peaceful, Aug 18 interview | Not listed: Peace / Peaceful, Sep 16 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Protest / Protester | Not listed: Protest / Protester, Dec 9 ’25 episode | Not said: Protest / Protester, Jan 30 ’26 episode | Not listed: Protest / Protester, Feb 4 speech | Not listed: Protest / Protester, Apr 8 panel | Not listed: Protest / Protester, Aug 18 interview | Not listed: Protest / Protester, Sep 16 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Seditious / Sedition | Not said: Seditious / Sedition, Dec 9 ’25 episode | Not listed: Seditious / Sedition, Jan 30 ’26 episode | Not listed: Seditious / Sedition, Feb 4 speech | Not listed: Seditious / Sedition, Apr 8 panel | Not listed: Seditious / Sedition, Aug 18 interview | Not listed: Seditious / Sedition, Sep 16 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 6Settled results come from the venues. Our own transcript counts appear here once transcripts arrive for these appearances. How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will Josh Shapiro say during The Briefing with Jen Psaki? | Captions · machine-attributed | 14 | 5 yes · 9 no | 13/13 (100%) |
| Aug 18, 2026 | InterviewWhat will Josh Shapiro say during MS NOW Deadline: White House? | no transcript | 14 | 4 yes · 10 no | – |
| Apr 8, 2026 | PanelWhat will Josh Shapiro say during his NAN Fireside Chat? | no transcript | 12 | 8 yes · 4 no | – |
| Feb 4, 2026 | SpeechWhat will Josh Shapiro say during his State of the State Address? | no transcript | 13 | 8 yes · 5 no | – |
| Jan 30, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will Josh Shapiro say during his Fox News Interview? | no transcript | 12 | 5 yes · 7 no | – |
| Dec 9, 2025 | EpisodeWhat will Josh Shapiro say during his interview on The Weeknight? | no transcript | 8 | 2 yes · 6 no | – |
Citeparrot.markets, “Josh Shapiro: mention market word history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/josh-shapiro (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/josh-shapiro · words: /api/v1/history?entity=josh-shapiro · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP