Mark Kelly

Politics · CongressPersonUS CongressMachine-attributedUpdated

As of Oct 23, 2026, Kalshi has settled 113 word markets on Mark Kelly’s appearances since 2025, on 55 different words; most reliably said: “Election” (4 of 5).

History Wall

1–40 of 56, most settled first · page 1 of 2
Mark Kelly: every word with settled markets, most settled first
WordNov 26 ’25episodeFeb 13 ’26episodeMar 11interviewApr 15keynoteJun 17interviewJul 15episodeSep 21episodeSep 29episodeOct 14latestLast 9SettledProbability
RepublicanNot listed: Republican, Nov 26 ’25 episodeNot said: Republican, Feb 13 ’26 episodeNot said: Republican, Mar 11 interviewSaid: Republican, Apr 15 keynoteSaid: Republican, Jun 17 interviewSaid: Republican, Jul 15 episode0 times: Republican, Sep 21 episode0 times: Republican, Sep 29 episode2 times: Republican, Oct 14 episode, counts as said4/850%4/850%53%n=3 from settlement history
Afford / Affordable / AffordabilityNot listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Nov 26 ’25 episodeNot listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Feb 13 ’26 episodeNot said: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Mar 11 interviewNot said: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Apr 15 keynoteSaid: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Jun 17 interviewNot said: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Jul 15 episode2 times: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Sep 21 episode, counts as said2 times: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Sep 29 episode, counts as said0 times: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Oct 14 episode3/743%3/743%44%n=3 from settlement history
AI / Artificial IntelligenceNot listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Nov 26 ’25 episodeNot listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Feb 13 ’26 episodeNot listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Mar 11 interviewSaid: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Apr 15 keynoteNot said: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Jun 17 interviewNot said: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Jul 15 episode0 times: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Sep 21 episode4 times: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Sep 29 episode, counts as said0 times: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Oct 14 episode2/633%2/633%43%n=2 from settlement history
Oil / Gas / GasolineNot listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Nov 26 ’25 episodeNot listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Feb 13 ’26 episodeNot listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Mar 11 interviewNot said: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Apr 15 keynoteNot said: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Jun 17 interviewNot said: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Jul 15 episode1 time: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Sep 21 episode, counts as said1 time: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Sep 29 episode, counts as said0 times: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Oct 14 episode2/633%2/633%33%n=2 from settlement history
ElectionNot listed: Election, Nov 26 ’25 episodeNot listed: Election, Feb 13 ’26 episodeNot listed: Election, Mar 11 interviewNot said: Election, Apr 15 keynoteNot listed: Election, Jun 17 interviewSaid: Election, Jul 15 episode1 time: Election, Sep 21 episode, counts as said5 times: Election, Sep 29 episode, counts as said0 times: Election, Oct 14 episode3/560%4/580%–n=1 too little history for a probability
HegsethNot listed: Hegseth, Nov 26 ’25 episodeNot listed: Hegseth, Feb 13 ’26 episodeNot said: Hegseth, Mar 11 interviewNot listed: Hegseth, Apr 15 keynoteNot said: Hegseth, Jun 17 interviewNot listed: Hegseth, Jul 15 episode0 times: Hegseth, Sep 21 episode2 times: Hegseth, Sep 29 episode, counts as said1 time: Hegseth, Oct 14 episode, counts as said2/540%2/540%32%n=2 from settlement history
Trump3+ timesNot listed: Trump (3+ times), Nov 26 ’25 episodeNot listed: Trump (3+ times), Feb 13 ’26 episodeNot listed: Trump (3+ times), Mar 11 interviewNot listed: Trump (3+ times), Apr 15 keynoteSaid: Trump (3+ times), Jun 17 interviewNot said: Trump (3+ times), Jul 15 episode0 times: Trump (3+ times), Sep 21 episode2 times: Trump (3+ times), Sep 29 episode, below the threshold6 times: Trump (3+ times), Oct 14 episode, counts as said2/540%2/540%–n=1 too little history for a probability
Trumpevery timeSaid: Trump, Nov 26 ’25 episodeSaid: Trump, Feb 13 ’26 episodeSaid: Trump, Mar 11 interviewSaid: Trump, Apr 15 keynoteNot listed: Trump, Jun 17 interviewNot listed: Trump, Jul 15 episodeNot listed: Trump, Sep 21 episodeNot listed: Trump, Sep 29 episodeNot listed: Trump, Oct 14 episode4/4100%4/4100%57%n=2 from settlement history
Iran / IranianNot listed: Iran / Iranian, Nov 26 ’25 episodeNot listed: Iran / Iranian, Feb 13 ’26 episodeNot listed: Iran / Iranian, Mar 11 interviewSaid: Iran / Iranian, Apr 15 keynoteNot listed: Iran / Iranian, Jun 17 interviewNot listed: Iran / Iranian, Jul 15 episode3 times: Iran / Iranian, Sep 21 episode, counts as said1 time: Iran / Iranian, Sep 29 episode, counts as said0 times: Iran / Iranian, Oct 14 episode3/475%3/475%–n=1 too little history for a probability
HealthcareNot listed: Healthcare, Nov 26 ’25 episodeNot listed: Healthcare, Feb 13 ’26 episodeNot listed: Healthcare, Mar 11 interviewNot listed: Healthcare, Apr 15 keynoteSaid: Healthcare, Jun 17 interviewNot said: Healthcare, Jul 15 episodeNot listed: Healthcare, Sep 21 episode1 time: Healthcare, Sep 29 episode, counts as said0 times: Healthcare, Oct 14 episode2/450%2/450%–n=1 too little history for a probability
Ceasefirenever saidNot listed: Ceasefire, Nov 26 ’25 episodeNot listed: Ceasefire, Feb 13 ’26 episodeNot listed: Ceasefire, Mar 11 interviewNot listed: Ceasefire, Apr 15 keynoteNot listed: Ceasefire, Jun 17 interviewNot said: Ceasefire, Jul 15 episode0 times: Ceasefire, Sep 21 episode0 times: Ceasefire, Sep 29 episode0 times: Ceasefire, Oct 14 episode0/40%0/40%–
Corrupt / Corruption / CrookNot listed: Corrupt / Corruption / Crook, Nov 26 ’25 episodeNot listed: Corrupt / Corruption / Crook, Feb 13 ’26 episodeNot listed: Corrupt / Corruption / Crook, Mar 11 interviewNot listed: Corrupt / Corruption / Crook, Apr 15 keynoteNot listed: Corrupt / Corruption / Crook, Jun 17 interviewNot listed: Corrupt / Corruption / Crook, Jul 15 episode1 time: Corrupt / Corruption / Crook, Sep 21 episode, counts as said1 time: Corrupt / Corruption / Crook, Sep 29 episode, counts as said0 times: Corrupt / Corruption / Crook, Oct 14 episode2/367%2/367%–
TariffNot listed: Tariff, Nov 26 ’25 episodeNot listed: Tariff, Feb 13 ’26 episodeNot listed: Tariff, Mar 11 interviewNot said: Tariff, Apr 15 keynoteNot listed: Tariff, Jun 17 interviewNot listed: Tariff, Jul 15 episode0 times: Tariff, Sep 21 episode0 times: Tariff, Sep 29 episodeNot listed: Tariff, Oct 14 episode0/30%0/30%–n=1 too little history for a probability
MilitarySaid: Military, Nov 26 ’25 episodeSaid: Military, Feb 13 ’26 episodeNot listed: Military, Mar 11 interviewNot listed: Military, Apr 15 keynoteNot listed: Military, Jun 17 interviewNot listed: Military, Jul 15 episodeNot listed: Military, Sep 21 episodeNot listed: Military, Sep 29 episodeNot listed: Military, Oct 14 episode2/2100%2/2100%–
IranNot listed: Iran, Nov 26 ’25 episodeNot listed: Iran, Feb 13 ’26 episodeSaid: Iran, Mar 11 interviewNot listed: Iran, Apr 15 keynoteNot listed: Iran, Jun 17 interviewNot said: Iran, Jul 15 episodeNot listed: Iran, Sep 21 episodeNot listed: Iran, Sep 29 episodeNot listed: Iran, Oct 14 episode1/250%1/250%–n=1 too little history for a probability
National SecurityNot listed: National Security, Nov 26 ’25 episodeNot listed: National Security, Feb 13 ’26 episodeNot listed: National Security, Mar 11 interviewNot listed: National Security, Apr 15 keynoteSaid: National Security, Jun 17 interviewNot listed: National Security, Jul 15 episodeNot listed: National Security, Sep 21 episode0 times: National Security, Sep 29 episodeNot listed: National Security, Oct 14 episode1/250%1/250%–n=1 too little history for a probability
2028 / CampaignNot listed: 2028 / Campaign, Nov 26 ’25 episodeNot listed: 2028 / Campaign, Feb 13 ’26 episodeNot listed: 2028 / Campaign, Mar 11 interviewNot listed: 2028 / Campaign, Apr 15 keynoteNot listed: 2028 / Campaign, Jun 17 interviewNot listed: 2028 / Campaign, Jul 15 episode0 times: 2028 / Campaign, Sep 21 episodeNot listed: 2028 / Campaign, Sep 29 episode0 times: 2028 / Campaign, Oct 14 episode0/20%0/20%–
Data CenterNot listed: Data Center, Nov 26 ’25 episodeNot listed: Data Center, Feb 13 ’26 episodeNot listed: Data Center, Mar 11 interviewNot listed: Data Center, Apr 15 keynoteNot listed: Data Center, Jun 17 interviewNot listed: Data Center, Jul 15 episode0 times: Data Center, Sep 21 episode0 times: Data Center, Sep 29 episodeNot listed: Data Center, Oct 14 episode0/20%0/20%–
DemocracyNot listed: Democracy, Nov 26 ’25 episodeNot said: Democracy, Feb 13 ’26 episodeNot listed: Democracy, Mar 11 interviewNot said: Democracy, Apr 15 keynoteNot listed: Democracy, Jun 17 interviewNot listed: Democracy, Jul 15 episodeNot listed: Democracy, Sep 21 episodeNot listed: Democracy, Sep 29 episodeNot listed: Democracy, Oct 14 episode0/20%0/20%–n=1 too little history for a probability
Billion / TrillionNot listed: Billion / Trillion, Nov 26 ’25 episodeNot listed: Billion / Trillion, Feb 13 ’26 episodeNot listed: Billion / Trillion, Mar 11 interviewNot listed: Billion / Trillion, Apr 15 keynoteNot listed: Billion / Trillion, Jun 17 interviewNot listed: Billion / Trillion, Jul 15 episode1 time: Billion / Trillion, Sep 21 episode, counts as saidNot listed: Billion / Trillion, Sep 29 episodeNot listed: Billion / Trillion, Oct 14 episode1/1100%1/1100%–
Execution / Death ThreatSaid: Execution / Death Threat, Nov 26 ’25 episodeNot listed: Execution / Death Threat, Feb 13 ’26 episodeNot listed: Execution / Death Threat, Mar 11 interviewNot listed: Execution / Death Threat, Apr 15 keynoteNot listed: Execution / Death Threat, Jun 17 interviewNot listed: Execution / Death Threat, Jul 15 episodeNot listed: Execution / Death Threat, Sep 21 episodeNot listed: Execution / Death Threat, Sep 29 episodeNot listed: Execution / Death Threat, Oct 14 episode1/1100%1/1100%–
Healthcare / Health CareNot listed: Healthcare / Health Care, Nov 26 ’25 episodeNot listed: Healthcare / Health Care, Feb 13 ’26 episodeNot listed: Healthcare / Health Care, Mar 11 interviewNot listed: Healthcare / Health Care, Apr 15 keynoteNot listed: Healthcare / Health Care, Jun 17 interviewNot listed: Healthcare / Health Care, Jul 15 episode1 time: Healthcare / Health Care, Sep 21 episode, counts as saidNot listed: Healthcare / Health Care, Sep 29 episodeNot listed: Healthcare / Health Care, Oct 14 episode1/1100%1/1100%–
IllegalNot listed: Illegal, Nov 26 ’25 episodeSaid: Illegal, Feb 13 ’26 episodeNot listed: Illegal, Mar 11 interviewNot listed: Illegal, Apr 15 keynoteNot listed: Illegal, Jun 17 interviewNot listed: Illegal, Jul 15 episodeNot listed: Illegal, Sep 21 episodeNot listed: Illegal, Sep 29 episodeNot listed: Illegal, Oct 14 episode1/1100%1/1100%–
Indict / Indicted / IndictmentNot listed: Indict / Indicted / Indictment, Nov 26 ’25 episodeSaid: Indict / Indicted / Indictment, Feb 13 ’26 episodeNot listed: Indict / Indicted / Indictment, Mar 11 interviewNot listed: Indict / Indicted / Indictment, Apr 15 keynoteNot listed: Indict / Indicted / Indictment, Jun 17 interviewNot listed: Indict / Indicted / Indictment, Jul 15 episodeNot listed: Indict / Indicted / Indictment, Sep 21 episodeNot listed: Indict / Indicted / Indictment, Sep 29 episodeNot listed: Indict / Indicted / Indictment, Oct 14 episode1/1100%1/1100%–
MissileNot listed: Missile, Nov 26 ’25 episodeNot listed: Missile, Feb 13 ’26 episodeSaid: Missile, Mar 11 interviewNot listed: Missile, Apr 15 keynoteNot listed: Missile, Jun 17 interviewNot listed: Missile, Jul 15 episodeNot listed: Missile, Sep 21 episodeNot listed: Missile, Sep 29 episodeNot listed: Missile, Oct 14 episode1/1100%1/1100%–n=1 too little history for a probability
NuclearNot listed: Nuclear, Nov 26 ’25 episodeNot listed: Nuclear, Feb 13 ’26 episodeSaid: Nuclear, Mar 11 interviewNot listed: Nuclear, Apr 15 keynoteNot listed: Nuclear, Jun 17 interviewNot listed: Nuclear, Jul 15 episodeNot listed: Nuclear, Sep 21 episodeNot listed: Nuclear, Sep 29 episodeNot listed: Nuclear, Oct 14 episode1/1100%1/1100%–n=1 too little history for a probability
Uranium / NuclearNot listed: Uranium / Nuclear, Nov 26 ’25 episodeNot listed: Uranium / Nuclear, Feb 13 ’26 episodeNot listed: Uranium / Nuclear, Mar 11 interviewNot listed: Uranium / Nuclear, Apr 15 keynoteSaid: Uranium / Nuclear, Jun 17 interviewNot listed: Uranium / Nuclear, Jul 15 episodeNot listed: Uranium / Nuclear, Sep 21 episodeNot listed: Uranium / Nuclear, Sep 29 episodeNot listed: Uranium / Nuclear, Oct 14 episode1/1100%1/1100%–n=1 too little history for a probability
OilNot listed: Oil, Nov 26 ’25 episodeNot listed: Oil, Feb 13 ’26 episodeSaid: Oil, Mar 11 interviewNot listed: Oil, Apr 15 keynoteNot listed: Oil, Jun 17 interviewNot listed: Oil, Jul 15 episodeNot listed: Oil, Sep 21 episodeNot listed: Oil, Sep 29 episodeNot listed: Oil, Oct 14 episode1/1100%1/1100%–n=1 too little history for a probability
SeditionSaid: Sedition, Nov 26 ’25 episodeNot listed: Sedition, Feb 13 ’26 episodeNot listed: Sedition, Mar 11 interviewNot listed: Sedition, Apr 15 keynoteNot listed: Sedition, Jun 17 interviewNot listed: Sedition, Jul 15 episodeNot listed: Sedition, Sep 21 episodeNot listed: Sedition, Sep 29 episodeNot listed: Sedition, Oct 14 episode1/1100%1/1100%–
AuthoritarianNot listed: Authoritarian, Nov 26 ’25 episodeNot said: Authoritarian, Feb 13 ’26 episodeNot listed: Authoritarian, Mar 11 interviewNot listed: Authoritarian, Apr 15 keynoteNot listed: Authoritarian, Jun 17 interviewNot listed: Authoritarian, Jul 15 episodeNot listed: Authoritarian, Sep 21 episodeNot listed: Authoritarian, Sep 29 episodeNot listed: Authoritarian, Oct 14 episode0/10%0/10%–
BallroomNot listed: Ballroom, Nov 26 ’25 episodeNot listed: Ballroom, Feb 13 ’26 episodeNot listed: Ballroom, Mar 11 interviewNot listed: Ballroom, Apr 15 keynoteNot said: Ballroom, Jun 17 interviewNot listed: Ballroom, Jul 15 episodeNot listed: Ballroom, Sep 21 episodeNot listed: Ballroom, Sep 29 episodeNot listed: Ballroom, Oct 14 episode0/10%0/10%–n=1 too little history for a probability
BillionaireNot listed: Billionaire, Nov 26 ’25 episodeNot listed: Billionaire, Feb 13 ’26 episodeNot listed: Billionaire, Mar 11 interviewNot listed: Billionaire, Apr 15 keynoteNot listed: Billionaire, Jun 17 interviewNot listed: Billionaire, Jul 15 episodeNot listed: Billionaire, Sep 21 episodeNot listed: Billionaire, Sep 29 episode0 times: Billionaire, Oct 14 episode0/10%0/10%–
Constitution / Constitutional / UnconstitutionalNot listed: Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional, Nov 26 ’25 episodeNot listed: Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional, Feb 13 ’26 episodeNot listed: Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional, Mar 11 interviewNot listed: Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional, Apr 15 keynoteNot listed: Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional, Jun 17 interviewNot listed: Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional, Jul 15 episodeNot listed: Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional, Sep 21 episode0 times: Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional, Sep 29 episodeNot listed: Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional, Oct 14 episode0/10%0/10%–
ICE / DHSNot listed: ICE / DHS, Nov 26 ’25 episodeNot listed: ICE / DHS, Feb 13 ’26 episodeNot said: ICE / DHS, Mar 11 interviewNot listed: ICE / DHS, Apr 15 keynoteNot listed: ICE / DHS, Jun 17 interviewNot listed: ICE / DHS, Jul 15 episodeNot listed: ICE / DHS, Sep 21 episodeNot listed: ICE / DHS, Sep 29 episodeNot listed: ICE / DHS, Oct 14 episode0/10%0/10%–n=1 too little history for a probability
DrugNot said: Drug, Nov 26 ’25 episodeNot listed: Drug, Feb 13 ’26 episodeNot listed: Drug, Mar 11 interviewNot listed: Drug, Apr 15 keynoteNot listed: Drug, Jun 17 interviewNot listed: Drug, Jul 15 episodeNot listed: Drug, Sep 21 episodeNot listed: Drug, Sep 29 episodeNot listed: Drug, Oct 14 episode0/10%0/10%–
EpsteinNot listed: Epstein, Nov 26 ’25 episodeNot said: Epstein, Feb 13 ’26 episodeNot listed: Epstein, Mar 11 interviewNot listed: Epstein, Apr 15 keynoteNot listed: Epstein, Jun 17 interviewNot listed: Epstein, Jul 15 episodeNot listed: Epstein, Sep 21 episodeNot listed: Epstein, Sep 29 episodeNot listed: Epstein, Oct 14 episode0/10%0/10%–
Gas Tax / Relief ActNot listed: Gas Tax / Relief Act, Nov 26 ’25 episodeNot listed: Gas Tax / Relief Act, Feb 13 ’26 episodeNot said: Gas Tax / Relief Act, Mar 11 interviewNot listed: Gas Tax / Relief Act, Apr 15 keynoteNot listed: Gas Tax / Relief Act, Jun 17 interviewNot listed: Gas Tax / Relief Act, Jul 15 episodeNot listed: Gas Tax / Relief Act, Sep 21 episodeNot listed: Gas Tax / Relief Act, Sep 29 episodeNot listed: Gas Tax / Relief Act, Oct 14 episode0/10%0/10%–n=1 too little history for a probability
GroceryNot listed: Grocery, Nov 26 ’25 episodeNot listed: Grocery, Feb 13 ’26 episodeNot listed: Grocery, Mar 11 interviewNot said: Grocery, Apr 15 keynoteNot listed: Grocery, Jun 17 interviewNot listed: Grocery, Jul 15 episodeNot listed: Grocery, Sep 21 episodeNot listed: Grocery, Sep 29 episodeNot listed: Grocery, Oct 14 episode0/10%0/10%–n=1 too little history for a probability
Home / HousingNot listed: Home / Housing, Nov 26 ’25 episodeNot listed: Home / Housing, Feb 13 ’26 episodeNot listed: Home / Housing, Mar 11 interviewNot listed: Home / Housing, Apr 15 keynoteNot listed: Home / Housing, Jun 17 interviewNot said: Home / Housing, Jul 15 episodeNot listed: Home / Housing, Sep 21 episodeNot listed: Home / Housing, Sep 29 episodeNot listed: Home / Housing, Oct 14 episode0/10%0/10%–
HormuzNot listed: Hormuz, Nov 26 ’25 episodeNot listed: Hormuz, Feb 13 ’26 episodeNot listed: Hormuz, Mar 11 interviewNot listed: Hormuz, Apr 15 keynoteNot said: Hormuz, Jun 17 interviewNot listed: Hormuz, Jul 15 episodeNot listed: Hormuz, Sep 21 episodeNot listed: Hormuz, Sep 29 episodeNot listed: Hormuz, Oct 14 episode0/10%0/10%–n=1 too little history for a probability
  • Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
  • N: settled no
  • not listed
  • probability next time, with n
  • Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
Last N
of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
Settled
every settled market of the word: said / listed
Probability
the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history

More words (16 left)

Appearances and settled record

latest 9

Settled results come from the venues. Our own transcript counts appear here once transcripts arrive for these appearances. How we check.

Recent appearances and how their listed words settled
DateAppearanceTextWordsSettledOur count agreed
Oct 14, 2026EpisodeWhat will Mark Kelly say during The Briefing with Jen Psaki?Captions · machine-attributed144 yes · 10 no12/13 (92%)
Sep 29, 2026EpisodeWhat will Mark Kelly say during The Weeknight?Captions · machine-attributed168 yes · 8 no15/15 (100%)
Sep 21, 2026EpisodeWhat will Mark Kelly say during The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell?Captions · machine-attributed187 yes · 11 no17/17 (100%)
Jul 15, 2026EpisodeWhat will Mark Kelly say during The Last Word With Lawrence O'Donnell?no transcript122 yes · 10 no–
Jun 17, 2026InterviewWhat will Mark Kelly say during his MS NOW interview?no transcript126 yes · 6 no–
Apr 15, 2026KeynoteWhat will Mark Kelly say during Semafor World Economy 2026?no transcript124 yes · 8 no–
Mar 11, 2026InterviewWhat will Mark Kelly say during his MS NOW interview?no transcript135 yes · 8 no–
Feb 13, 2026EpisodeWhat will Mark Kelly say during his MS NOW interview?no transcript114 yes · 7 no–
Nov 26, 2025EpisodeWhat will Senator Mark Kelly say during Jimmy Kimmel Live!?no transcript124 yes · 8 no–

Citeparrot.markets, “Mark Kelly: mention market word history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/mark-kelly (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/mark-kelly · words: /api/v1/history?entity=mark-kelly · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP