Gretchen Whitmer
As of Oct 24, 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket have settled 46 word markets on Gretchen Whitmer’s appearances since 2024, on 39 different words.
History Wall
1–39 of 39, most settled first| Word | Aug 22 ’24speech | Jan 22 ’26keynote | Feb 26latest | Last 3 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bipartisan | Not listed: Bipartisan, Aug 22 ’24 speech | Settled yes: Bipartisan, Jan 22 ’26 keynote | Settled yes: Bipartisan, Feb 26 speech | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 62%n=2 from settlement history |
| China | Not listed: China, Aug 22 ’24 speech | Settled yes: China, Jan 22 ’26 keynote | Settled yes: China, Feb 26 speech | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 62%n=2 from settlement history |
| Tariff | Not listed: Tariff, Aug 22 ’24 speech | Settled yes: Tariff, Jan 22 ’26 keynote | Settled yes: Tariff, Feb 26 speech | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 62%n=2 from settlement history |
| Trump | Not listed: Trump, Aug 22 ’24 speech | Settled yes: Trump, Jan 22 ’26 keynote | Settled yes: Trump, Feb 26 speech | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 62%n=2 from settlement history |
| Democracy | Settled no: Democracy, Aug 22 ’24 speech | Settled yes: Democracy, Jan 22 ’26 keynote | Not listed: Democracy, Feb 26 speech | 1/250% | 1/250% | 58%n=2 from settlement history |
| Immigrant / Immigration | Not listed: Immigrant / Immigration, Aug 22 ’24 speech | Settled yes: Immigrant / Immigration, Jan 22 ’26 keynote | Settled no: Immigrant / Immigration, Feb 26 speech | 1/250% | 1/250% | 48%n=2 from settlement history |
| Inflation | Settled no: Inflation, Aug 22 ’24 speech | Settled no: Inflation, Jan 22 ’26 keynote | Not listed: Inflation, Feb 26 speech | 0/20% | 0/20% | 44%n=2 from settlement history |
| Affordable / Affordability | Not listed: Affordable / Affordability, Aug 22 ’24 speech | Not listed: Affordable / Affordability, Jan 22 ’26 keynote | Settled yes: Affordable / Affordability, Feb 26 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Aug 22 ’24 speech | Settled yes: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Jan 22 ’26 keynote | Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Feb 26 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Big Gretch | Settled yes: Big Gretch, Aug 22 ’24 speech | Not listed: Big Gretch, Jan 22 ’26 keynote | Not listed: Big Gretch, Feb 26 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Damn Roads | Not listed: Damn Roads, Aug 22 ’24 speech | Not listed: Damn Roads, Jan 22 ’26 keynote | Settled yes: Damn Roads, Feb 26 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Election | Not listed: Election, Aug 22 ’24 speech | Settled yes: Election, Jan 22 ’26 keynote | Not listed: Election, Feb 26 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Fraud | Not listed: Fraud, Aug 22 ’24 speech | Settled yes: Fraud, Jan 22 ’26 keynote | Not listed: Fraud, Feb 26 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Healthcare | Not listed: Healthcare, Aug 22 ’24 speech | Not listed: Healthcare, Jan 22 ’26 keynote | Settled yes: Healthcare, Feb 26 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Housing | Not listed: Housing, Aug 22 ’24 speech | Not listed: Housing, Jan 22 ’26 keynote | Settled yes: Housing, Feb 26 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Infrastructure | Not listed: Infrastructure, Aug 22 ’24 speech | Settled yes: Infrastructure, Jan 22 ’26 keynote | Not listed: Infrastructure, Feb 26 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Investment / Invested | Not listed: Investment / Invested, Aug 22 ’24 speech | Settled yes: Investment / Invested, Jan 22 ’26 keynote | Not listed: Investment / Invested, Feb 26 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Literacy | Not listed: Literacy, Aug 22 ’24 speech | Not listed: Literacy, Jan 22 ’26 keynote | Settled yes: Literacy, Feb 26 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Manufacturing | Not listed: Manufacturing, Aug 22 ’24 speech | Not listed: Manufacturing, Jan 22 ’26 keynote | Settled yes: Manufacturing, Feb 26 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Michigan | Settled yes: Michigan, Aug 22 ’24 speech | Not listed: Michigan, Jan 22 ’26 keynote | Not listed: Michigan, Feb 26 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Tax | Not listed: Tax, Aug 22 ’24 speech | Settled yes: Tax, Jan 22 ’26 keynote | Not listed: Tax, Feb 26 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Abortion | Settled no: Abortion, Aug 22 ’24 speech | Not listed: Abortion, Jan 22 ’26 keynote | Not listed: Abortion, Feb 26 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Obamacare/ACA | Settled no: Obamacare/ACA, Aug 22 ’24 speech | Not listed: Obamacare/ACA, Jan 22 ’26 keynote | Not listed: Obamacare/ACA, Feb 26 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Aug 22 ’24 speech | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Jan 22 ’26 keynote | Settled no: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Feb 26 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Smart Phone / Cell Phone | Not listed: Smart Phone / Cell Phone, Aug 22 ’24 speech | Not listed: Smart Phone / Cell Phone, Jan 22 ’26 keynote | Settled no: Smart Phone / Cell Phone, Feb 26 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Daycare / Childcare | Not listed: Daycare / Childcare, Aug 22 ’24 speech | Not listed: Daycare / Childcare, Jan 22 ’26 keynote | Settled no: Daycare / Childcare, Feb 26 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Climate Change | Settled no: Climate Change, Aug 22 ’24 speech | Not listed: Climate Change, Jan 22 ’26 keynote | Not listed: Climate Change, Feb 26 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Constitution | Not listed: Constitution, Aug 22 ’24 speech | Settled no: Constitution, Jan 22 ’26 keynote | Not listed: Constitution, Feb 26 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Convicted Felon | Settled no: Convicted Felon, Aug 22 ’24 speech | Not listed: Convicted Felon, Jan 22 ’26 keynote | Not listed: Convicted Felon, Feb 26 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Data Center | Not listed: Data Center, Aug 22 ’24 speech | Not listed: Data Center, Jan 22 ’26 keynote | Settled no: Data Center, Feb 26 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Don't give up | Settled no: Don't give up, Aug 22 ’24 speech | Not listed: Don't give up, Jan 22 ’26 keynote | Not listed: Don't give up, Feb 26 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Donald Trump3+ times | Settled no: Donald Trump 3+ times, Aug 22 ’24 speech | Not listed: Donald Trump 3+ times, Jan 22 ’26 keynote | Not listed: Donald Trump 3+ times, Feb 26 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| EV / Electric Vehicle | Not listed: EV / Electric Vehicle, Aug 22 ’24 speech | Not listed: EV / Electric Vehicle, Jan 22 ’26 keynote | Settled no: EV / Electric Vehicle, Feb 26 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Flint | Settled no: Flint, Aug 22 ’24 speech | Not listed: Flint, Jan 22 ’26 keynote | Not listed: Flint, Feb 26 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Gay | Settled no: Gay, Aug 22 ’24 speech | Not listed: Gay, Jan 22 ’26 keynote | Not listed: Gay, Feb 26 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Glass Ceiling | Settled no: Glass Ceiling, Aug 22 ’24 speech | Not listed: Glass Ceiling, Jan 22 ’26 keynote | Not listed: Glass Ceiling, Feb 26 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Israel | Settled no: Israel, Aug 22 ’24 speech | Not listed: Israel, Jan 22 ’26 keynote | Not listed: Israel, Feb 26 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Muslim | Settled no: Muslim, Aug 22 ’24 speech | Not listed: Muslim, Jan 22 ’26 keynote | Not listed: Muslim, Feb 26 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| White House | Settled no: White House, Aug 22 ’24 speech | Not listed: White House, Jan 22 ’26 keynote | Not listed: White House, Feb 26 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 3Settled results come from the venues. Our own transcript counts appear here once transcripts arrive for these appearances. How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2026 | SpeechWhat will Gretchen Whitmer say during her State of the State Address? | no transcript | 16 | 10 yes · 6 no | – |
| Jan 22, 2026 | KeynoteWhat will the US Governors say during the WEF? | no transcript | 14 | 12 yes · 2 no | – |
| Aug 22, 2024 | SpeechWhat will Gretchen Whitmer say during DNC speech? | no transcript | 16 | 2 yes · 14 no | – |
Citeparrot.markets, “Gretchen Whitmer: mention market word history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/gretchen-whitmer (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/gretchen-whitmer · words: /api/v1/history?entity=gretchen-whitmer · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP