Will JD Vance say “Election”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Election” at 27 of 43 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 17, 2025 (63%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 78% (n=43, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 rallies have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1. No rallies among them yet.

78%from settlement history only · n=43Next: Rally, Oct 26, 2026 · counts: named speaker only
Last 10
10/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes
Streak
said the last 10 times
Counts
named speaker only
Market
85¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

JD Vance

Election

Probability
78% · n=43
Settled
27/43 (63%)
Last 5 transcripts
said in 1 of 5

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

JD VancespeakerVice President JD Vance Briefs Members of the Media, Sep. 3, 2026 · Sep 3, 2026 · 39:32In transcript

…leader. But it's really not my business weeks, months before a Senate election to talk about who should be the next Republican majority leader. I…

The PressreporterVice President JD Vance Briefs Members of the Media, Jun. 18, 2026 · Jun 18, 2026 · 33:04In transcript

…Colombia, Mr. Vice President, he has mentioned Colombia three times this week. Why is it so important, the election day in Colombia, for President Trump?

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

What will JD Vance say during his fraud press conference? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will JD Vance say during his announcement? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in North Carolina? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will JD Vance say during his CBS Town Hall? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will JD Vance say during his rally in Michigan? · settled yes

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in Ohio? · settled yes

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in Alaska? · settled yes

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What will JD Vance say during Fox News: Hannity? · settled yes

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What will JD Vance say during his Midterm Rally in Florida? · settled yes

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What will JD Vance say during his Midterm Rally in Texas? · settled yes

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Every settled listing

newest first · 49 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Oct 21, 2026ElectionKalshiYes
Oct 19, 2026ElectionKalshiYes
Oct 17, 2026ElectionKalshiYes
Oct 15, 2026ElectionKalshiYes
Oct 9, 2026ElectionPolymarketYes
Oct 9, 2026ElectionKalshiYes
Oct 5, 2026ElectionKalshiYes
Oct 1, 2026ElectionKalshiYes
Oct 1, 2026ElectionKalshiYes
Sep 30, 2026ElectionKalshiYes
Sep 21, 2026ElectionPolymarketYes
Sep 21, 2026ElectionKalshiYes
Sep 18, 2026ElectionPolymarketYes
Sep 18, 2026ElectionKalshiYes
Sep 14, 2026ElectionKalshiYes
Sep 14, 2026ElectionKalshiYes
Sep 9, 2026ElectionKalshiYes
Sep 3, 2026ElectionKalshiYes
Aug 31, 2026ElectionKalshiYes
Aug 24, 2026ElectionKalshiNo
Aug 21, 2026ElectionKalshiYes
Aug 13, 2026ElectionKalshiNo
Aug 8, 2026ElectionKalshiNo
Aug 5, 2026ElectionKalshiNo
Jul 8, 2026ElectionPolymarketYes
Jul 8, 2026ElectionKalshiYes
Jun 30, 2026ElectionKalshiYes
Jun 17, 2026ElectionKalshiNo
Jun 16, 2026ElectionKalshiNo
Jun 16, 2026ElectionKalshiNo
Jun 16, 2026ElectionKalshiNo
Jun 15, 2026ElectionKalshiNo
Jun 8, 2026ElectionKalshiYes
May 29, 2026ElectionKalshiVoid (did not qualify)
May 18, 2026ElectionKalshiNo
May 16, 2026ElectionKalshiYes
May 14, 2026ElectionKalshiNo
May 5, 2026ElectionKalshiYes
Apr 30, 2026ElectionKalshiVoid (did not qualify)
Apr 29, 2026ElectionKalshiNo
Apr 14, 2026ElectionKalshiYes
Mar 9, 2026ElectionKalshiNo
Feb 27, 2026ElectionKalshiYes
Feb 26, 2026ElectionKalshiNo
Nov 21, 2025ElectionKalshiYes
Nov 14, 2025ElectionKalshiYes
Sep 24, 2025ElectionKalshiNo
Sep 21, 2025ElectionKalshiNo
Sep 17, 2025ElectionKalshiYes

Questions

How often does JD Vance say “Election”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “Election” at 27 of 43 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 17, 2025 (63%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026.
What is the probability JD Vance says “Election” next time?
78%, from settlement history (n=43). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Election’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/election (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=election · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP