Kristi Noem

Politics · VP & cabinetPersonTrump administrationMachine-attributedUpdated Oct 24, 2026, 10:36 UTC

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As of Oct 24, 2026, Kalshi has settled 83 word markets on Kristi Noem’s appearances since 2026, on 36 different words; most reliably said: “Democrat” (5 of 5).

History Wall

1–37 of 37, most settled first

Kristi Noem: every word with settled markets, most settled first

Word	Jan 19episode	Feb 5conference	Feb 14conference	Mar 3hearing	Mar 4hearing	Mar 5latest	Last 6	Settled	Probability
Biden	3 times: Biden, Jan 19 episode, counts as said	YSettled yes: Biden, Feb 5 conference	NSettled no: Biden, Feb 14 conference	YSettled yes: Biden, Mar 3 hearing	YSettled yes: Biden, Mar 4 hearing	NSettled no: Biden, Mar 5 conference	4/667%	4/667%	51%n=5 from settlement history
Democratevery time	2 times: Democrat, Jan 19 episode, counts as said	–Not listed: Democrat, Feb 5 conference	YSettled yes: Democrat, Feb 14 conference	YSettled yes: Democrat, Mar 3 hearing	YSettled yes: Democrat, Mar 4 hearing	YSettled yes: Democrat, Mar 5 conference	5/5100%	5/5100%	68%n=4 from settlement history
Fraud	2 times: Fraud, Jan 19 episode, counts as said	–Not listed: Fraud, Feb 5 conference	NSettled no: Fraud, Feb 14 conference	YSettled yes: Fraud, Mar 3 hearing	YSettled yes: Fraud, Mar 4 hearing	NSettled no: Fraud, Mar 5 conference	3/560%	3/560%	46%n=4 from settlement history
National Security	0 times: National Security, Jan 19 episode	NSettled no: National Security, Feb 5 conference	NSettled no: National Security, Feb 14 conference	–Not listed: National Security, Mar 3 hearing	YSettled yes: National Security, Mar 4 hearing	NSettled no: National Security, Mar 5 conference	1/520%	1/520%	38%n=4 from settlement history
Terrorist / Terrorismevery time	–Not listed: Terrorist / Terrorism, Jan 19 episode	–Not listed: Terrorist / Terrorism, Feb 5 conference	YSettled yes: Terrorist / Terrorism, Feb 14 conference	YSettled yes: Terrorist / Terrorism, Mar 3 hearing	YSettled yes: Terrorist / Terrorism, Mar 4 hearing	YSettled yes: Terrorist / Terrorism, Mar 5 conference	4/4100%	4/4100%	68%n=4 from settlement history
Shutdown / Shut Down	–Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Jan 19 episode	–Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Feb 5 conference	NSettled no: Shutdown / Shut Down, Feb 14 conference	YSettled yes: Shutdown / Shut Down, Mar 3 hearing	NSettled no: Shutdown / Shut Down, Mar 4 hearing	NSettled no: Shutdown / Shut Down, Mar 5 conference	1/425%	1/425%	39%n=4 from settlement history
Fentanyl	–Not listed: Fentanyl, Jan 19 episode	YSettled yes: Fentanyl, Feb 5 conference	–Not listed: Fentanyl, Feb 14 conference	YSettled yes: Fentanyl, Mar 3 hearing	YSettled yes: Fentanyl, Mar 4 hearing	–Not listed: Fentanyl, Mar 5 conference	3/3100%	3/3100%	70%n=3 from settlement history
Trump	3 times: Trump, Jan 19 episode, counts as said	YSettled yes: Trump, Feb 5 conference	YSettled yes: Trump, Feb 14 conference	–Not listed: Trump, Mar 3 hearing	–Not listed: Trump, Mar 4 hearing	–Not listed: Trump, Mar 5 conference	3/3100%	3/3100%	63%n=2 from settlement history
Body Cam / Body Camera	–Not listed: Body Cam / Body Camera, Jan 19 episode	NSettled no: Body Cam / Body Camera, Feb 5 conference	–Not listed: Body Cam / Body Camera, Feb 14 conference	YSettled yes: Body Cam / Body Camera, Mar 3 hearing	YSettled yes: Body Cam / Body Camera, Mar 4 hearing	–Not listed: Body Cam / Body Camera, Mar 5 conference	2/367%	2/367%	62%n=3 from settlement history
Deport / Deportation	–Not listed: Deport / Deportation, Jan 19 episode	–Not listed: Deport / Deportation, Feb 5 conference	–Not listed: Deport / Deportation, Feb 14 conference	YSettled yes: Deport / Deportation, Mar 3 hearing	YSettled yes: Deport / Deportation, Mar 4 hearing	NSettled no: Deport / Deportation, Mar 5 conference	2/367%	2/367%	52%n=3 from settlement history
Election	–Not listed: Election, Jan 19 episode	–Not listed: Election, Feb 5 conference	–Not listed: Election, Feb 14 conference	YSettled yes: Election, Mar 3 hearing	YSettled yes: Election, Mar 4 hearing	NSettled no: Election, Mar 5 conference	2/367%	2/367%	52%n=3 from settlement history
Mask / Masked	–Not listed: Mask / Masked, Jan 19 episode	–Not listed: Mask / Masked, Feb 5 conference	–Not listed: Mask / Masked, Feb 14 conference	YSettled yes: Mask / Masked, Mar 3 hearing	NSettled no: Mask / Masked, Mar 4 hearing	NSettled no: Mask / Masked, Mar 5 conference	1/333%	1/333%	43%n=3 from settlement history
Renee / Pretti	–Not listed: Renee / Pretti, Jan 19 episode	–Not listed: Renee / Pretti, Feb 5 conference	–Not listed: Renee / Pretti, Feb 14 conference	NSettled no: Renee / Pretti, Mar 3 hearing	NSettled no: Renee / Pretti, Mar 4 hearing	NSettled no: Renee / Pretti, Mar 5 conference	0/30%	0/30%	34%n=3 from settlement history
Somali / Somalia / Somalian	0 times: Somali / Somalia / Somalian, Jan 19 episode	–Not listed: Somali / Somalia / Somalian, Feb 5 conference	–Not listed: Somali / Somalia / Somalian, Feb 14 conference	NSettled no: Somali / Somalia / Somalian, Mar 3 hearing	NSettled no: Somali / Somalia / Somalian, Mar 4 hearing	–Not listed: Somali / Somalia / Somalian, Mar 5 conference	0/30%	0/30%	40%n=2 from settlement history
Border	1 time: Border, Jan 19 episode, counts as said	–Not listed: Border, Feb 5 conference	–Not listed: Border, Feb 14 conference	–Not listed: Border, Mar 3 hearing	–Not listed: Border, Mar 4 hearing	YSettled yes: Border, Mar 5 conference	2/2100%	2/2100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Sanctuary	–Not listed: Sanctuary, Jan 19 episode	–Not listed: Sanctuary, Feb 5 conference	–Not listed: Sanctuary, Feb 14 conference	YSettled yes: Sanctuary, Mar 3 hearing	YSettled yes: Sanctuary, Mar 4 hearing	–Not listed: Sanctuary, Mar 5 conference	2/2100%	2/2100%	67%n=2 from settlement history
Traffic / Trafficking	–Not listed: Traffic / Trafficking, Jan 19 episode	YSettled yes: Traffic / Trafficking, Feb 5 conference	–Not listed: Traffic / Trafficking, Feb 14 conference	–Not listed: Traffic / Trafficking, Mar 3 hearing	–Not listed: Traffic / Trafficking, Mar 4 hearing	YSettled yes: Traffic / Trafficking, Mar 5 conference	2/2100%	2/2100%	63%n=2 from settlement history
Illegal Alien	0 times: Illegal Alien, Jan 19 episode	YSettled yes: Illegal Alien, Feb 5 conference	–Not listed: Illegal Alien, Feb 14 conference	–Not listed: Illegal Alien, Mar 3 hearing	–Not listed: Illegal Alien, Mar 4 hearing	–Not listed: Illegal Alien, Mar 5 conference	1/250%	1/250%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Mexico	–Not listed: Mexico, Jan 19 episode	YSettled yes: Mexico, Feb 5 conference	NSettled no: Mexico, Feb 14 conference	–Not listed: Mexico, Mar 3 hearing	–Not listed: Mexico, Mar 4 hearing	–Not listed: Mexico, Mar 5 conference	1/250%	1/250%	49%n=2 from settlement history
Homan	–Not listed: Homan, Jan 19 episode	–Not listed: Homan, Feb 5 conference	–Not listed: Homan, Feb 14 conference	NSettled no: Homan, Mar 3 hearing	NSettled no: Homan, Mar 4 hearing	–Not listed: Homan, Mar 5 conference	0/20%	0/20%	40%n=2 from settlement history
Walz	–Not listed: Walz, Jan 19 episode	–Not listed: Walz, Feb 5 conference	–Not listed: Walz, Feb 14 conference	NSettled no: Walz, Mar 3 hearing	NSettled no: Walz, Mar 4 hearing	–Not listed: Walz, Mar 5 conference	0/20%	0/20%	40%n=2 from settlement history
Homan / Bovino	–Not listed: Homan / Bovino, Jan 19 episode	YSettled yes: Homan / Bovino, Feb 5 conference	–Not listed: Homan / Bovino, Feb 14 conference	–Not listed: Homan / Bovino, Mar 3 hearing	–Not listed: Homan / Bovino, Mar 4 hearing	–Not listed: Homan / Bovino, Mar 5 conference	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Crime / Criminal	–Not listed: Crime / Criminal, Jan 19 episode	YSettled yes: Crime / Criminal, Feb 5 conference	–Not listed: Crime / Criminal, Feb 14 conference	–Not listed: Crime / Criminal, Mar 3 hearing	–Not listed: Crime / Criminal, Mar 4 hearing	–Not listed: Crime / Criminal, Mar 5 conference	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Walz / Governor	5 times: Walz / Governor, Jan 19 episode, counts as said	–Not listed: Walz / Governor, Feb 5 conference	–Not listed: Walz / Governor, Feb 14 conference	–Not listed: Walz / Governor, Mar 3 hearing	–Not listed: Walz / Governor, Mar 4 hearing	–Not listed: Walz / Governor, Mar 5 conference	1/1100%	1/1100%	–
ICE / National Guard	–Not listed: ICE / National Guard, Jan 19 episode	YSettled yes: ICE / National Guard, Feb 5 conference	–Not listed: ICE / National Guard, Feb 14 conference	–Not listed: ICE / National Guard, Mar 3 hearing	–Not listed: ICE / National Guard, Mar 4 hearing	–Not listed: ICE / National Guard, Mar 5 conference	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
ID / Identification	–Not listed: ID / Identification, Jan 19 episode	–Not listed: ID / Identification, Feb 5 conference	YSettled yes: ID / Identification, Feb 14 conference	–Not listed: ID / Identification, Mar 3 hearing	–Not listed: ID / Identification, Mar 4 hearing	–Not listed: ID / Identification, Mar 5 conference	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
SAVE Act / SAVE America	–Not listed: SAVE Act / SAVE America, Jan 19 episode	–Not listed: SAVE Act / SAVE America, Feb 5 conference	YSettled yes: SAVE Act / SAVE America, Feb 14 conference	–Not listed: SAVE Act / SAVE America, Mar 3 hearing	–Not listed: SAVE Act / SAVE America, Mar 4 hearing	–Not listed: SAVE Act / SAVE America, Mar 5 conference	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Trump3+ times	–Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Jan 19 episode	–Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Feb 5 conference	–Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Feb 14 conference	–Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Mar 3 hearing	–Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Mar 4 hearing	YSettled yes: Trump (3+ times), Mar 5 conference	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Warrant	–Not listed: Warrant, Jan 19 episode	–Not listed: Warrant, Feb 5 conference	–Not listed: Warrant, Feb 14 conference	–Not listed: Warrant, Mar 3 hearing	YSettled yes: Warrant, Mar 4 hearing	–Not listed: Warrant, Mar 5 conference	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Self Defense / Defending	0 times: Self Defense / Defending, Jan 19 episode	–Not listed: Self Defense / Defending, Feb 5 conference	–Not listed: Self Defense / Defending, Feb 14 conference	–Not listed: Self Defense / Defending, Mar 3 hearing	–Not listed: Self Defense / Defending, Mar 4 hearing	–Not listed: Self Defense / Defending, Mar 5 conference	0/10%	0/10%	–
Domestic Terrorist / Domestic Terrorism	0 times: Domestic Terrorist / Domestic Terrorism, Jan 19 episode	–Not listed: Domestic Terrorist / Domestic Terrorism, Feb 5 conference	–Not listed: Domestic Terrorist / Domestic Terrorism, Feb 14 conference	–Not listed: Domestic Terrorist / Domestic Terrorism, Mar 3 hearing	–Not listed: Domestic Terrorist / Domestic Terrorism, Mar 4 hearing	–Not listed: Domestic Terrorist / Domestic Terrorism, Mar 5 conference	0/10%	0/10%	–
FBI	–Not listed: FBI, Jan 19 episode	–Not listed: FBI, Feb 5 conference	NSettled no: FBI, Feb 14 conference	–Not listed: FBI, Mar 3 hearing	–Not listed: FBI, Mar 4 hearing	–Not listed: FBI, Mar 5 conference	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Impeach / Impeachment	0 times: Impeach / Impeachment, Jan 19 episode	–Not listed: Impeach / Impeachment, Feb 5 conference	–Not listed: Impeach / Impeachment, Feb 14 conference	–Not listed: Impeach / Impeachment, Mar 3 hearing	–Not listed: Impeach / Impeachment, Mar 4 hearing	–Not listed: Impeach / Impeachment, Mar 5 conference	0/10%	0/10%	–
Iran	–Not listed: Iran, Jan 19 episode	–Not listed: Iran, Feb 5 conference	–Not listed: Iran, Feb 14 conference	–Not listed: Iran, Mar 3 hearing	–Not listed: Iran, Mar 4 hearing	NSettled no: Iran, Mar 5 conference	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Minnesota / Minneapolis	–Not listed: Minnesota / Minneapolis, Jan 19 episode	–Not listed: Minnesota / Minneapolis, Feb 5 conference	NSettled no: Minnesota / Minneapolis, Feb 14 conference	–Not listed: Minnesota / Minneapolis, Mar 3 hearing	–Not listed: Minnesota / Minneapolis, Mar 4 hearing	–Not listed: Minnesota / Minneapolis, Mar 5 conference	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Rio Grande	–Not listed: Rio Grande, Jan 19 episode	NSettled no: Rio Grande, Feb 5 conference	–Not listed: Rio Grande, Feb 14 conference	–Not listed: Rio Grande, Mar 3 hearing	–Not listed: Rio Grande, Mar 4 hearing	–Not listed: Rio Grande, Mar 5 conference	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Save Act / Save America Act	–Not listed: Save Act / Save America Act, Jan 19 episode	–Not listed: Save Act / Save America Act, Feb 5 conference	–Not listed: Save Act / Save America Act, Feb 14 conference	–Not listed: Save Act / Save America Act, Mar 3 hearing	NSettled no: Save Act / Save America Act, Mar 4 hearing	–Not listed: Save Act / Save America Act, Mar 5 conference	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability

• Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
• N: settled no
• not listed
• probability next time, with n
• Select a word or a cell for its quotes

What the columns mean

Last N

of the appearances shown, how many counted as said

Settled

every settled market of the word: said / listed

Probability

the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history

Citeparrot.markets, “Kristi Noem: mention market word history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/kristi-noem (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/kristi-noem · words: /api/v1/history?entity=kristi-noem · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP