Howard Lutnick

Politics · VP & cabinetPersonTrump administrationHistory onlyUpdated Oct 23, 2026, 23:56 UTC

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As of Oct 23, 2026, Kalshi has settled 60 word markets on Howard Lutnick’s appearances since 2025, on 38 different words.

History Wall

1–39 of 39, most settled first

Howard Lutnick: every word with settled markets, most settled first

Word	Mar 15 ’25episode	Feb 4 ’26keynote	Apr 17keynote	Apr 23latest	Last 4	Settled	Probability
Tariff	NSettled no: Tariff, Mar 15 ’25 episode	YSettled yes: Tariff, Feb 4 ’26 keynote	YSettled yes: Tariff, Apr 17 keynote	YSettled yes: Tariff, Apr 23 hearing	3/475%	3/475%	60%n=4 from settlement history
AI / Artificial Intelligence	NSettled no: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Mar 15 ’25 episode	NSettled no: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Feb 4 ’26 keynote	NSettled no: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Apr 17 keynote	YSettled yes: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Apr 23 hearing	1/425%	1/425%	43%n=4 from settlement history
Manufacture / Manufacturing	–Not listed: Manufacture / Manufacturing, Mar 15 ’25 episode	YSettled yes: Manufacture / Manufacturing, Feb 4 ’26 keynote	NSettled no: Manufacture / Manufacturing, Apr 17 keynote	YSettled yes: Manufacture / Manufacturing, Apr 23 hearing	2/367%	2/367%	53%n=3 from settlement history
National Security	–Not listed: National Security, Mar 15 ’25 episode	YSettled yes: National Security, Feb 4 ’26 keynote	NSettled no: National Security, Apr 17 keynote	YSettled yes: National Security, Apr 23 hearing	2/367%	2/367%	53%n=3 from settlement history
Epstein	NSettled no: Epstein, Mar 15 ’25 episode	–Not listed: Epstein, Feb 4 ’26 keynote	NSettled no: Epstein, Apr 17 keynote	NSettled no: Epstein, Apr 23 hearing	0/30%	0/30%	32%n=3 from settlement history
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	–Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Mar 15 ’25 episode	–Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Feb 4 ’26 keynote	YSettled yes: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Apr 17 keynote	YSettled yes: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Apr 23 hearing	2/2100%	2/2100%	59%n=2 from settlement history
Japan	–Not listed: Japan, Mar 15 ’25 episode	–Not listed: Japan, Feb 4 ’26 keynote	YSettled yes: Japan, Apr 17 keynote	YSettled yes: Japan, Apr 23 hearing	2/2100%	2/2100%	59%n=2 from settlement history
Trillion	–Not listed: Trillion, Mar 15 ’25 episode	YSettled yes: Trillion, Feb 4 ’26 keynote	YSettled yes: Trillion, Apr 17 keynote	–Not listed: Trillion, Apr 23 hearing	2/2100%	2/2100%	58%n=2 from settlement history
Trump3+ times	–Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Mar 15 ’25 episode	–Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Feb 4 ’26 keynote	YSettled yes: Trump (3+ times), Apr 17 keynote	YSettled yes: Trump (3+ times), Apr 23 hearing	2/2100%	2/2100%	59%n=2 from settlement history
China	NSettled no: China, Mar 15 ’25 episode	YSettled yes: China, Feb 4 ’26 keynote	–Not listed: China, Apr 17 keynote	–Not listed: China, Apr 23 hearing	1/250%	1/250%	48%n=2 from settlement history
China / Chinese	–Not listed: China / Chinese, Mar 15 ’25 episode	–Not listed: China / Chinese, Feb 4 ’26 keynote	NSettled no: China / Chinese, Apr 17 keynote	YSettled yes: China / Chinese, Apr 23 hearing	1/250%	1/250%	49%n=2 from settlement history
Canada	NSettled no: Canada, Mar 15 ’25 episode	–Not listed: Canada, Feb 4 ’26 keynote	–Not listed: Canada, Apr 17 keynote	NSettled no: Canada, Apr 23 hearing	0/20%	0/20%	36%n=2 from settlement history
Iran / Iranian	–Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Mar 15 ’25 episode	–Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Feb 4 ’26 keynote	NSettled no: Iran / Iranian, Apr 17 keynote	NSettled no: Iran / Iranian, Apr 23 hearing	0/20%	0/20%	34%n=2 from settlement history
Ukraine	NSettled no: Ukraine, Mar 15 ’25 episode	NSettled no: Ukraine, Feb 4 ’26 keynote	–Not listed: Ukraine, Apr 17 keynote	–Not listed: Ukraine, Apr 23 hearing	0/20%	0/20%	34%n=2 from settlement history
Invested / Investment	–Not listed: Invested / Investment, Mar 15 ’25 episode	YSettled yes: Invested / Investment, Feb 4 ’26 keynote	–Not listed: Invested / Investment, Apr 17 keynote	–Not listed: Invested / Investment, Apr 23 hearing	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
NOAA / National Weather Service	–Not listed: NOAA / National Weather Service, Mar 15 ’25 episode	–Not listed: NOAA / National Weather Service, Feb 4 ’26 keynote	–Not listed: NOAA / National Weather Service, Apr 17 keynote	YSettled yes: NOAA / National Weather Service, Apr 23 hearing	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Supreme Court	–Not listed: Supreme Court, Mar 15 ’25 episode	–Not listed: Supreme Court, Feb 4 ’26 keynote	–Not listed: Supreme Court, Apr 17 keynote	YSettled yes: Supreme Court, Apr 23 hearing	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Trump	–Not listed: Trump, Mar 15 ’25 episode	YSettled yes: Trump, Feb 4 ’26 keynote	–Not listed: Trump, Apr 17 keynote	–Not listed: Trump, Apr 23 hearing	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Afford / Affordable / Affordability	–Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Mar 15 ’25 episode	–Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Feb 4 ’26 keynote	NSettled no: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Apr 17 keynote	–Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Apr 23 hearing	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Bitcoin	NSettled no: Bitcoin, Mar 15 ’25 episode	–Not listed: Bitcoin, Feb 4 ’26 keynote	–Not listed: Bitcoin, Apr 17 keynote	–Not listed: Bitcoin, Apr 23 hearing	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Chuck / Schumer	NSettled no: Chuck / Schumer, Mar 15 ’25 episode	–Not listed: Chuck / Schumer, Feb 4 ’26 keynote	–Not listed: Chuck / Schumer, Apr 17 keynote	–Not listed: Chuck / Schumer, Apr 23 hearing	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Commerce	NSettled no: Commerce, Mar 15 ’25 episode	–Not listed: Commerce, Feb 4 ’26 keynote	–Not listed: Commerce, Apr 17 keynote	–Not listed: Commerce, Apr 23 hearing	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Davos	–Not listed: Davos, Mar 15 ’25 episode	NSettled no: Davos, Feb 4 ’26 keynote	–Not listed: Davos, Apr 17 keynote	–Not listed: Davos, Apr 23 hearing	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Democrat	–Not listed: Democrat, Mar 15 ’25 episode	–Not listed: Democrat, Feb 4 ’26 keynote	NSettled no: Democrat, Apr 17 keynote	–Not listed: Democrat, Apr 23 hearing	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Domestic	–Not listed: Domestic, Mar 15 ’25 episode	NSettled no: Domestic, Feb 4 ’26 keynote	–Not listed: Domestic, Apr 17 keynote	–Not listed: Domestic, Apr 23 hearing	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Egg	NSettled no: Egg, Mar 15 ’25 episode	–Not listed: Egg, Feb 4 ’26 keynote	–Not listed: Egg, Apr 17 keynote	–Not listed: Egg, Apr 23 hearing	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Elon / Musk	NSettled no: Elon / Musk, Mar 15 ’25 episode	–Not listed: Elon / Musk, Feb 4 ’26 keynote	–Not listed: Elon / Musk, Apr 17 keynote	–Not listed: Elon / Musk, Apr 23 hearing	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Immigrant / Immigration	–Not listed: Immigrant / Immigration, Mar 15 ’25 episode	–Not listed: Immigrant / Immigration, Feb 4 ’26 keynote	–Not listed: Immigrant / Immigration, Apr 17 keynote	NSettled no: Immigrant / Immigration, Apr 23 hearing	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Israel	NSettled no: Israel, Mar 15 ’25 episode	–Not listed: Israel, Feb 4 ’26 keynote	–Not listed: Israel, Apr 17 keynote	–Not listed: Israel, Apr 23 hearing	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
J.D. / Vance	NSettled no: J.D. / Vance, Mar 15 ’25 episode	–Not listed: J.D. / Vance, Feb 4 ’26 keynote	–Not listed: J.D. / Vance, Apr 17 keynote	–Not listed: J.D. / Vance, Apr 23 hearing	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Mexico	NSettled no: Mexico, Mar 15 ’25 episode	–Not listed: Mexico, Feb 4 ’26 keynote	–Not listed: Mexico, Apr 17 keynote	–Not listed: Mexico, Apr 23 hearing	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Milk	NSettled no: Milk, Mar 15 ’25 episode	–Not listed: Milk, Feb 4 ’26 keynote	–Not listed: Milk, Apr 17 keynote	–Not listed: Milk, Apr 23 hearing	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Rare Earth / Mineral	–Not listed: Rare Earth / Mineral, Mar 15 ’25 episode	–Not listed: Rare Earth / Mineral, Feb 4 ’26 keynote	–Not listed: Rare Earth / Mineral, Apr 17 keynote	NSettled no: Rare Earth / Mineral, Apr 23 hearing	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Recession	NSettled no: Recession, Mar 15 ’25 episode	–Not listed: Recession, Feb 4 ’26 keynote	–Not listed: Recession, Apr 17 keynote	–Not listed: Recession, Apr 23 hearing	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Russia	NSettled no: Russia, Mar 15 ’25 episode	–Not listed: Russia, Feb 4 ’26 keynote	–Not listed: Russia, Apr 17 keynote	–Not listed: Russia, Apr 23 hearing	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Shutdown / Shut down	NSettled no: Shutdown / Shut down, Mar 15 ’25 episode	–Not listed: Shutdown / Shut down, Feb 4 ’26 keynote	–Not listed: Shutdown / Shut down, Apr 17 keynote	–Not listed: Shutdown / Shut down, Apr 23 hearing	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Stake	–Not listed: Stake, Mar 15 ’25 episode	NSettled no: Stake, Feb 4 ’26 keynote	–Not listed: Stake, Apr 17 keynote	–Not listed: Stake, Apr 23 hearing	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Tesla	NSettled no: Tesla, Mar 15 ’25 episode	–Not listed: Tesla, Feb 4 ’26 keynote	–Not listed: Tesla, Apr 17 keynote	–Not listed: Tesla, Apr 23 hearing	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Tether	NSettled no: Tether, Mar 15 ’25 episode	–Not listed: Tether, Feb 4 ’26 keynote	–Not listed: Tether, Apr 17 keynote	–Not listed: Tether, Apr 23 hearing	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability

• Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
• N: settled no
• not listed
• probability next time, with n
• Select a word or a cell for its quotes

What the columns mean

Last N

of the appearances shown, how many counted as said

Settled

every settled market of the word: said / listed

Probability

the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history

Citeparrot.markets, “Howard Lutnick: mention market word history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/howard-lutnick (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/howard-lutnick · words: /api/v1/history?entity=howard-lutnick · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP