Jared Isaacman
As of Oct 24, 2026, Kalshi has settled 105 word markets on Jared Isaacman’s appearances since 2026, on 33 different words; most reliably said: “Mars” (7 of 7).
History Wall
1–34 of 34, most settled first| Word | Apr 5episode | Apr 11episode | Apr 27hearing | Apr 28hearing | May 26conference | Jun 30remarks | Jul 5latest | Last 7 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marsevery time | 1 time: Mars, Apr 5 episode, counts as said | Settled yes: Mars, Apr 11 episode | Settled yes: Mars, Apr 27 hearing | Settled yes: Mars, Apr 28 hearing | Settled yes: Mars, May 26 conference | Settled yes: Mars, Jun 30 remarks | 2 times: Mars, Jul 5 episode, counts as said | 7/7100% | 7/7100% | 69%n=4 from settlement history |
| ISS / International Space Station | 0 times: ISS / International Space Station, Apr 5 episode | Settled no: ISS / International Space Station, Apr 11 episode | Settled yes: ISS / International Space Station, Apr 27 hearing | Settled yes: ISS / International Space Station, Apr 28 hearing | Settled yes: ISS / International Space Station, May 26 conference | Settled yes: ISS / International Space Station, Jun 30 remarks | 1 time: ISS / International Space Station, Jul 5 episode, counts as said | 5/771% | 5/771% | 69%n=4 from settlement history |
| Houston | 0 times: Houston, Apr 5 episode | Settled no: Houston, Apr 11 episode | Settled yes: Houston, Apr 27 hearing | Settled no: Houston, Apr 28 hearing | Settled yes: Houston, May 26 conference | Settled no: Houston, Jun 30 remarks | 0 times: Houston, Jul 5 episode | 2/729% | 2/729% | 46%n=4 from settlement history |
| China / Chinese | Not listed: China / Chinese, Apr 5 episode | Not listed: China / Chinese, Apr 11 episode | Settled yes: China / Chinese, Apr 27 hearing | Settled yes: China / Chinese, Apr 28 hearing | Settled no: China / Chinese, May 26 conference | Settled no: China / Chinese, Jun 30 remarks | 2 times: China / Chinese, Jul 5 episode, counts as said | 3/560% | 3/560% | 45%n=4 from settlement history |
| SpaceX | Not listed: SpaceX, Apr 5 episode | Not listed: SpaceX, Apr 11 episode | Settled yes: SpaceX, Apr 27 hearing | Settled yes: SpaceX, Apr 28 hearing | Settled no: SpaceX, May 26 conference | Settled no: SpaceX, Jun 30 remarks | 1 time: SpaceX, Jul 5 episode, counts as said | 3/560% | 3/560% | 45%n=4 from settlement history |
| Nuclear | 2 times: Nuclear, Apr 5 episode, counts as said | Settled no: Nuclear, Apr 11 episode | Not listed: Nuclear, Apr 27 hearing | Not listed: Nuclear, Apr 28 hearing | Settled no: Nuclear, May 26 conference | Settled yes: Nuclear, Jun 30 remarks | 0 times: Nuclear, Jul 5 episode | 2/540% | 2/540% | 52%n=2 from settlement history |
| Space Force | Not listed: Space Force, Apr 5 episode | Not listed: Space Force, Apr 11 episode | Settled yes: Space Force, Apr 27 hearing | Settled no: Space Force, Apr 28 hearing | Settled no: Space Force, May 26 conference | Settled yes: Space Force, Jun 30 remarks | 0 times: Space Force, Jul 5 episode | 2/540% | 2/540% | 51%n=4 from settlement history |
| Elon / Musknever said | Not listed: Elon / Musk, Apr 5 episode | Not listed: Elon / Musk, Apr 11 episode | Settled no: Elon / Musk, Apr 27 hearing | Settled no: Elon / Musk, Apr 28 hearing | Settled no: Elon / Musk, May 26 conference | Settled no: Elon / Musk, Jun 30 remarks | 0 times: Elon / Musk, Jul 5 episode | 0/50% | 0/50% | 29%n=4 from settlement history |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Apr 5 episode | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Apr 11 episode | Settled yes: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Apr 27 hearing | Settled no: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Apr 28 hearing | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, May 26 conference | Settled no: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Jun 30 remarks | 0 times: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Jul 5 episode | 1/425% | 1/425% | 41%n=3 from settlement history |
| Crater | Not listed: Crater, Apr 5 episode | Settled no: Crater, Apr 11 episode | Not listed: Crater, Apr 27 hearing | Not listed: Crater, Apr 28 hearing | Settled yes: Crater, May 26 conference | Settled no: Crater, Jun 30 remarks | 0 times: Crater, Jul 5 episode | 1/425% | 1/425% | 46%n=2 from settlement history |
| Aliennever said | Not listed: Alien, Apr 5 episode | Settled no: Alien, Apr 11 episode | Not listed: Alien, Apr 27 hearing | Not listed: Alien, Apr 28 hearing | Settled no: Alien, May 26 conference | Settled no: Alien, Jun 30 remarks | 0 times: Alien, Jul 5 episode | 0/40% | 0/40% | 35%n=2 from settlement history |
| Apollo | Not listed: Apollo, Apr 5 episode | Not listed: Apollo, Apr 11 episode | Not listed: Apollo, Apr 27 hearing | Not listed: Apollo, Apr 28 hearing | Settled yes: Apollo, May 26 conference | Settled yes: Apollo, Jun 30 remarks | 1 time: Apollo, Jul 5 episode, counts as said | 3/3100% | 3/3100% | 63%n=2 from settlement history |
| Artemis 3 | Not listed: Artemis 3, Apr 5 episode | Not listed: Artemis 3, Apr 11 episode | Not listed: Artemis 3, Apr 27 hearing | Not listed: Artemis 3, Apr 28 hearing | Settled yes: Artemis 3, May 26 conference | Settled yes: Artemis 3, Jun 30 remarks | 3 times: Artemis 3, Jul 5 episode, counts as said | 3/3100% | 3/3100% | 63%n=2 from settlement history |
| Blue Origin | Not listed: Blue Origin, Apr 5 episode | Not listed: Blue Origin, Apr 11 episode | Not listed: Blue Origin, Apr 27 hearing | Not listed: Blue Origin, Apr 28 hearing | Settled yes: Blue Origin, May 26 conference | Settled yes: Blue Origin, Jun 30 remarks | 2 times: Blue Origin, Jul 5 episode, counts as said | 3/3100% | 3/3100% | 63%n=2 from settlement history |
| Trump | Not listed: Trump, Apr 5 episode | Not listed: Trump, Apr 11 episode | Not listed: Trump, Apr 27 hearing | Not listed: Trump, Apr 28 hearing | Settled yes: Trump, May 26 conference | Settled no: Trump, Jun 30 remarks | 1 time: Trump, Jul 5 episode, counts as said | 2/367% | 2/367% | 46%n=2 from settlement history |
| Budget | Not listed: Budget, Apr 5 episode | Not listed: Budget, Apr 11 episode | Not listed: Budget, Apr 27 hearing | Not listed: Budget, Apr 28 hearing | Settled yes: Budget, May 26 conference | Settled no: Budget, Jun 30 remarks | 0 times: Budget, Jul 5 episode | 1/333% | 1/333% | 46%n=2 from settlement history |
| Artemis | Not listed: Artemis, Apr 5 episode | Not listed: Artemis, Apr 11 episode | Settled yes: Artemis, Apr 27 hearing | Settled yes: Artemis, Apr 28 hearing | Not listed: Artemis, May 26 conference | Not listed: Artemis, Jun 30 remarks | Not listed: Artemis, Jul 5 episode | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 68%n=2 from settlement history |
| Moon Base / Lunar Base | 2 times: Moon Base / Lunar Base, Apr 5 episode, counts as said | Settled yes: Moon Base / Lunar Base, Apr 11 episode | Not listed: Moon Base / Lunar Base, Apr 27 hearing | Not listed: Moon Base / Lunar Base, Apr 28 hearing | Not listed: Moon Base / Lunar Base, May 26 conference | Not listed: Moon Base / Lunar Base, Jun 30 remarks | Not listed: Moon Base / Lunar Base, Jul 5 episode | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | – |
| Moon Base | Not listed: Moon Base, Apr 5 episode | Not listed: Moon Base, Apr 11 episode | Settled yes: Moon Base, Apr 27 hearing | Settled yes: Moon Base, Apr 28 hearing | Not listed: Moon Base, May 26 conference | Not listed: Moon Base, Jun 30 remarks | Not listed: Moon Base, Jul 5 episode | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 68%n=2 from settlement history |
| Rocket | Not listed: Rocket, Apr 5 episode | Not listed: Rocket, Apr 11 episode | Settled yes: Rocket, Apr 27 hearing | Settled yes: Rocket, Apr 28 hearing | Not listed: Rocket, May 26 conference | Not listed: Rocket, Jun 30 remarks | Not listed: Rocket, Jul 5 episode | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 68%n=2 from settlement history |
| Invest / Invested / Investment | 1 time: Invest / Invested / Investment, Apr 5 episode, counts as said | Settled no: Invest / Invested / Investment, Apr 11 episode | Not listed: Invest / Invested / Investment, Apr 27 hearing | Not listed: Invest / Invested / Investment, Apr 28 hearing | Not listed: Invest / Invested / Investment, May 26 conference | Not listed: Invest / Invested / Investment, Jun 30 remarks | Not listed: Invest / Invested / Investment, Jul 5 episode | 1/250% | 1/250% | – |
| Russia / Russian | Not listed: Russia / Russian, Apr 5 episode | Not listed: Russia / Russian, Apr 11 episode | Settled no: Russia / Russian, Apr 27 hearing | Settled yes: Russia / Russian, Apr 28 hearing | Not listed: Russia / Russian, May 26 conference | Not listed: Russia / Russian, Jun 30 remarks | Not listed: Russia / Russian, Jul 5 episode | 1/250% | 1/250% | 54%n=2 from settlement history |
| Trump3+ times | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Apr 5 episode | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Apr 11 episode | Settled yes: Trump (3+ times), Apr 27 hearing | Settled no: Trump (3+ times), Apr 28 hearing | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), May 26 conference | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Jun 30 remarks | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Jul 5 episode | 1/250% | 1/250% | 53%n=2 from settlement history |
| Asteroid | Not listed: Asteroid , Apr 5 episode | Not listed: Asteroid , Apr 11 episode | Settled no: Asteroid , Apr 27 hearing | Settled no: Asteroid , Apr 28 hearing | Not listed: Asteroid , May 26 conference | Not listed: Asteroid , Jun 30 remarks | Not listed: Asteroid , Jul 5 episode | 0/20% | 0/20% | 39%n=2 from settlement history |
| Data Center | Not listed: Data Center, Apr 5 episode | Not listed: Data Center, Apr 11 episode | Not listed: Data Center, Apr 27 hearing | Not listed: Data Center, Apr 28 hearing | Not listed: Data Center, May 26 conference | Settled no: Data Center, Jun 30 remarks | 0 times: Data Center, Jul 5 episode | 0/20% | 0/20% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Discover / Discovery | 0 times: Discover / Discovery, Apr 5 episode | Settled no: Discover / Discovery, Apr 11 episode | Not listed: Discover / Discovery, Apr 27 hearing | Not listed: Discover / Discovery, Apr 28 hearing | Not listed: Discover / Discovery, May 26 conference | Not listed: Discover / Discovery, Jun 30 remarks | Not listed: Discover / Discovery, Jul 5 episode | 0/20% | 0/20% | – |
| Eclipse | 0 times: Eclipse, Apr 5 episode | Settled no: Eclipse, Apr 11 episode | Not listed: Eclipse, Apr 27 hearing | Not listed: Eclipse, Apr 28 hearing | Not listed: Eclipse, May 26 conference | Not listed: Eclipse, Jun 30 remarks | Not listed: Eclipse, Jul 5 episode | 0/20% | 0/20% | – |
| SpaceX / Elon | 0 times: SpaceX / Elon, Apr 5 episode | Settled no: SpaceX / Elon, Apr 11 episode | Not listed: SpaceX / Elon, Apr 27 hearing | Not listed: SpaceX / Elon, Apr 28 hearing | Not listed: SpaceX / Elon, May 26 conference | Not listed: SpaceX / Elon, Jun 30 remarks | Not listed: SpaceX / Elon, Jul 5 episode | 0/20% | 0/20% | – |
| Gravity | 0 times: Gravity, Apr 5 episode | Settled no: Gravity, Apr 11 episode | Not listed: Gravity, Apr 27 hearing | Not listed: Gravity, Apr 28 hearing | Not listed: Gravity, May 26 conference | Not listed: Gravity, Jun 30 remarks | Not listed: Gravity, Jul 5 episode | 0/20% | 0/20% | – |
| Toilet | 0 times: Toilet, Apr 5 episode | Settled no: Toilet, Apr 11 episode | Not listed: Toilet, Apr 27 hearing | Not listed: Toilet, Apr 28 hearing | Not listed: Toilet, May 26 conference | Not listed: Toilet, Jun 30 remarks | Not listed: Toilet, Jul 5 episode | 0/20% | 0/20% | – |
| Orion | 3 times: Orion, Apr 5 episode, counts as said | Not listed: Orion, Apr 11 episode | Not listed: Orion, Apr 27 hearing | Not listed: Orion, Apr 28 hearing | Not listed: Orion, May 26 conference | Not listed: Orion, Jun 30 remarks | Not listed: Orion, Jul 5 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | – |
| President / Prime Minister | Not listed: President / Prime Minister, Apr 5 episode | Settled yes: President / Prime Minister, Apr 11 episode | Not listed: President / Prime Minister, Apr 27 hearing | Not listed: President / Prime Minister, Apr 28 hearing | Not listed: President / Prime Minister, May 26 conference | Not listed: President / Prime Minister, Jun 30 remarks | Not listed: President / Prime Minister, Jul 5 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | – |
| Mark / Kelly | 0 times: Mark / Kelly, Apr 5 episode | Not listed: Mark / Kelly, Apr 11 episode | Not listed: Mark / Kelly, Apr 27 hearing | Not listed: Mark / Kelly, Apr 28 hearing | Not listed: Mark / Kelly, May 26 conference | Not listed: Mark / Kelly, Jun 30 remarks | Not listed: Mark / Kelly, Jul 5 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Radiation | 0 times: Radiation, Apr 5 episode | Not listed: Radiation, Apr 11 episode | Not listed: Radiation, Apr 27 hearing | Not listed: Radiation, Apr 28 hearing | Not listed: Radiation, May 26 conference | Not listed: Radiation, Jun 30 remarks | Not listed: Radiation, Jul 5 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 7Settled results come from the venues. Our own transcript counts appear here once transcripts arrive for these appearances. How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 5, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will Jared Isaacman say during Face the Nation? | Official transcript | 18 | 8 yes · 10 no | 17/17 (100%) |
| Jun 30, 2026 | RemarksWhat will Jared Isaacman say during the NASA Moon Base Update? | no transcript | 18 | 7 yes · 11 no | – |
| May 26, 2026 | Press conferenceWhat will Jared Isaacman say during NASA's Moon Base News Conference? | no transcript | 16 | 9 yes · 7 no | – |
| Apr 28, 2026 | HearingWhat will Jared Isaacman say during the NASA Budget hearing? | no transcript | 15 | 8 yes · 7 no | – |
| Apr 27, 2026 | HearingWhat will Jared Isaacman say during the NASA Budget Hearing? | no transcript | 15 | 11 yes · 4 no | – |
| Apr 11, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will Jared Isaacman say during his Fox News interview? | no transcript | 15 | 3 yes · 12 no | – |
| Apr 5, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will Jared Isaacman say during Face the Nation? | Official transcript | 15 | 5 yes · 10 no | 14/14 (100%) |
Citeparrot.markets, “Jared Isaacman: mention market word history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jared-isaacman (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/jared-isaacman · words: /api/v1/history?entity=jared-isaacman · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP