Business mention markets

Name: Business mention markets: word history and probabilities
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 23, 2026, Parrot covers 149 Kalshi and Polymarket business mention-market events (14 open) for 82 people, shows and companies, with 45 transcripts.

Tech leaders, company keynotes, investor conferences, finance & crypto, NASA.

Data updated Oct 23, 2026, 21:36 UTC· Source: Kalshi, Polymarket, transcripts

Numbers: events in the next 14 days

Coming up

next 14 days · 5 events

K = Kalshi, P = Polymarket: mid prices, up to about 20 minutes old. Not advice.

said / not said on each settled listing
no appearance
chance it is said next time

Sun, Oct 25

1 event

Elon MuskPosts this week (October 19 - October 25)

By Sun, Oct 25

Elon Musk: times each word was said per appearance, oldest first, and the probability for the next one
Word	7 listings before the last	6 listings before the last	5 listings before the last	4 listings before the last	3 listings before the last	2 listings before the last	1 listing before the last	the last settled listing	Chance next time: probability
TeslaP 100¢	Tesla: said, 7 listings before the last	Tesla: said, 6 listings before the last	Tesla: said, 5 listings before the last	Tesla: said, 4 listings before the last	Tesla: said, 3 listings before the last	Tesla: said, 2 listings before the last	Tesla: said, 1 listing before the last	Tesla: said, the last settled listing	94% from settlement history
SpaceXP 100¢	SpaceX: no appearance in 7 listings before the last	SpaceX: no appearance in 6 listings before the last	SpaceX: no appearance in 5 listings before the last	SpaceX: not said, 4 listings before the last	SpaceX: not said, 3 listings before the last	SpaceX: said, 2 listings before the last	SpaceX: said, 1 listing before the last	SpaceX: said, the last settled listing	76% from settlement history
BitcoinP 46¢	Bitcoin: not said, 7 listings before the last	Bitcoin: not said, 6 listings before the last	Bitcoin: not said, 5 listings before the last	Bitcoin: not said, 4 listings before the last	Bitcoin: not said, 3 listings before the last	Bitcoin: not said, 2 listings before the last	Bitcoin: not said, 1 listing before the last	Bitcoin: not said, the last settled listing	3% from settlement history
CanyonP 49¢	Canyon: no appearance in 7 listings before the last	Canyon: no appearance in 6 listings before the last	Canyon: no appearance in 5 listings before the last	Canyon: no appearance in 4 listings before the last	Canyon: no appearance in 3 listings before the last	Canyon: no appearance in 2 listings before the last	Canyon: no appearance in 1 listing before the last	Canyon: no appearance in the last settled listing	–
Evel KnievelP 49¢	Evel Knievel: no appearance in 7 listings before the last	Evel Knievel: no appearance in 6 listings before the last	Evel Knievel: no appearance in 5 listings before the last	Evel Knievel: no appearance in 4 listings before the last	Evel Knievel: no appearance in 3 listings before the last	Evel Knievel: no appearance in 2 listings before the last	Evel Knievel: no appearance in 1 listing before the last	Evel Knievel: no appearance in the last settled listing	–
Flying CarP 50¢	Flying Car: no appearance in 7 listings before the last	Flying Car: no appearance in 6 listings before the last	Flying Car: no appearance in 5 listings before the last	Flying Car: no appearance in 4 listings before the last	Flying Car: no appearance in 3 listings before the last	Flying Car: no appearance in 2 listings before the last	Flying Car: no appearance in 1 listing before the last	Flying Car: no appearance in the last settled listing	–

Polymarket+5 more words Last transcript · Jan 23, 2026

Mon, Oct 26

1 event

OracleOracle AI World keynote

Oracle: times each word was said per appearance, oldest first, and the probability for the next one
Word	4 listings before the last	3 listings before the last	2 listings before the last	1 listing before the last	the last settled listing	Chance next time: probability
MulticloudK 56¢	Multicloud: said, 4 listings before the last	Multicloud: said, 3 listings before the last	Multicloud: said, 2 listings before the last	Multicloud: said, 1 listing before the last	Multicloud: said, the last settled listing	61% from settlement history
HealthK 80¢	Health: no appearance in 4 listings before the last	Health: said, 3 listings before the last	Health: said, 2 listings before the last	Health: said, 1 listing before the last	Health: said, the last settled listing	60% from settlement history
NVIDIAK 26¢	NVIDIA: no appearance in 4 listings before the last	NVIDIA: no appearance in 3 listings before the last	NVIDIA: no appearance in 2 listings before the last	NVIDIA: no appearance in 1 listing before the last	NVIDIA: said, the last settled listing	– too little history for a probability
AutomationK 70¢	Automation: no appearance in 4 listings before the last	Automation: not said, 3 listings before the last	Automation: said, 2 listings before the last	Automation: not said, 1 listing before the last	Automation: said, the last settled listing	47% from settlement history
SovereignK 38¢	Sovereign: no appearance in 4 listings before the last	Sovereign: not said, 3 listings before the last	Sovereign: said, 2 listings before the last	Sovereign: not said, 1 listing before the last	Sovereign: said, the last settled listing	47% from settlement history
DebtK 21¢	Debt: no appearance in 4 listings before the last	Debt: said, 3 listings before the last	Debt: said, 2 listings before the last	Debt: said, 1 listing before the last	Debt: not said, the last settled listing	47% from settlement history

Kalshi+8 more words Last call · Sep 10, 2026

Tue, Oct 27

1 event

OracleOracle AI World keynote

Oracle: times each word was said per appearance, oldest first, and the probability for the next one
Word	4 listings before the last	3 listings before the last	2 listings before the last	1 listing before the last	the last settled listing	Chance next time: probability
MulticloudK 66¢	Multicloud: said, 4 listings before the last	Multicloud: said, 3 listings before the last	Multicloud: said, 2 listings before the last	Multicloud: said, 1 listing before the last	Multicloud: said, the last settled listing	61% from settlement history
NVIDIAK 39¢	NVIDIA: no appearance in 4 listings before the last	NVIDIA: no appearance in 3 listings before the last	NVIDIA: no appearance in 2 listings before the last	NVIDIA: no appearance in 1 listing before the last	NVIDIA: said, the last settled listing	– too little history for a probability
SovereignK 54¢	Sovereign: no appearance in 4 listings before the last	Sovereign: not said, 3 listings before the last	Sovereign: said, 2 listings before the last	Sovereign: not said, 1 listing before the last	Sovereign: said, the last settled listing	47% from settlement history
DebtK 15¢	Debt: no appearance in 4 listings before the last	Debt: said, 3 listings before the last	Debt: said, 2 listings before the last	Debt: said, 1 listing before the last	Debt: not said, the last settled listing	47% from settlement history
OpenAIK 60¢	OpenAI: no appearance in 4 listings before the last	OpenAI: said, 3 listings before the last	OpenAI: not said, 2 listings before the last	OpenAI: not said, 1 listing before the last	OpenAI: said, the last settled listing	45% from settlement history
BacklogK 12¢	Backlog: no appearance in 4 listings before the last	Backlog: said, 3 listings before the last	Backlog: said, 2 listings before the last	Backlog: not said, 1 listing before the last	Backlog: not said, the last settled listing	38% from settlement history

Kalshi+11 more words Last call · Sep 10, 2026

Wed, Oct 28

1 event

MicrosoftGitHub Universe Keynote

Microsoft: times each word was said per appearance, oldest first, and the probability for the next one
Word	6 listings before the last	5 listings before the last	4 listings before the last	3 listings before the last	2 listings before the last	1 listing before the last	the last settled listing	Chance next time: probability
CopilotK 86¢	Copilot: no appearance in 6 listings before the last	Copilot: no appearance in 5 listings before the last	Copilot: no appearance in 4 listings before the last	Copilot: said, 3 listings before the last	Copilot: said, 2 listings before the last	Copilot: said, 1 listing before the last	Copilot: said, the last settled listing	81% from settlement history
AgentK 74¢	Agent: no appearance in 6 listings before the last	Agent: no appearance in 5 listings before the last	Agent: no appearance in 4 listings before the last	Agent: no appearance in 3 listings before the last	Agent: no appearance in 2 listings before the last	Agent: no appearance in 1 listing before the last	Agent: said, the last settled listing	– too little history for a probability
FrontierK 57¢	Frontier: no appearance in 6 listings before the last	Frontier: no appearance in 5 listings before the last	Frontier: no appearance in 4 listings before the last	Frontier: no appearance in 3 listings before the last	Frontier: no appearance in 2 listings before the last	Frontier: said, 1 listing before the last	Frontier: said, the last settled listing	65% from settlement history
FoundryK 42¢	Foundry: no appearance in 6 listings before the last	Foundry: no appearance in 5 listings before the last	Foundry: no appearance in 4 listings before the last	Foundry: no appearance in 3 listings before the last	Foundry: no appearance in 2 listings before the last	Foundry: no appearance in 1 listing before the last	Foundry: said, the last settled listing	– too little history for a probability
MemoryK 32¢	Memory: no appearance in 6 listings before the last	Memory: no appearance in 5 listings before the last	Memory: no appearance in 4 listings before the last	Memory: no appearance in 3 listings before the last	Memory: no appearance in 2 listings before the last	Memory: no appearance in 1 listing before the last	Memory: said, the last settled listing	– too little history for a probability
CodexK 32¢	Codex: said, 6 listings before the last	Codex: said, 5 listings before the last	Codex: said, 4 listings before the last	Codex: said, 3 listings before the last	Codex: said, 2 listings before the last	Codex: said, 1 listing before the last	Codex: not said, the last settled listing	58% from settlement history

Kalshi+7 more words Last call · Jul 29, 2026

Tue, Nov 3

1 event

SnowflakeAgentic enterprise keynote

Snowflake: times each word was said per appearance, oldest first, and the probability for the next one
Word	3 listings before the last	2 listings before the last	1 listing before the last	the last settled listing	Chance next time: probability
AWSK 28¢	AWS: said, 3 listings before the last	AWS: not said, 2 listings before the last	AWS: said, 1 listing before the last	AWS: said, the last settled listing	57% from settlement history
OpenAIK 20¢	OpenAI: no appearance in 3 listings before the last	OpenAI: no appearance in 2 listings before the last	OpenAI: no appearance in 1 listing before the last	OpenAI: said, the last settled listing	– too little history for a probability
AzureK 32¢	Azure: not said, 3 listings before the last	Azure: not said, 2 listings before the last	Azure: said, 1 listing before the last	Azure: said, the last settled listing	53% from settlement history
Open SourceK 38¢	Open Source: not said, 3 listings before the last	Open Source: not said, 2 listings before the last	Open Source: said, 1 listing before the last	Open Source: said, the last settled listing	53% from settlement history
CoWorkK 75¢	CoWork: no appearance in 3 listings before the last	CoWork: no appearance in 2 listings before the last	CoWork: no appearance in 1 listing before the last	CoWork: not said, the last settled listing	– too little history for a probability
DatabricksK 6¢	Databricks: no appearance in 3 listings before the last	Databricks: no appearance in 2 listings before the last	Databricks: no appearance in 1 listing before the last	Databricks: not said, the last settled listing	– too little history for a probability

Kalshi+10 more words Last call · Sep 2, 2026

Recently settled

NVIDIA
Wed, Oct 21 · GTC Berlin Keynote
16 of 22 words said
Settled by the venues; no transcript count yet
- AIYes
- AnthropicYes
- BlackwellYes
- CosmosYes
Zoom
Tue, Oct 20 · Zoomtopia 2026 Keynote
4 of 14 words said
Settled by the venues; no transcript count yet
- Contact CenterYes
- My NoteYes
- Virtual AgentYes
- ZoomMateYes
Elon Musk
Sun, Oct 18 · Posts this week (October 12 - October 18)
4 of 9 words said
Settled by the venues; no transcript count yet
- StarlinkYes · 86×
- SpaceXYes · 69×
- TeslaYes · 50×
- ChinaYes · 6×
Tesla
Thu, Oct 15 · The roadster event
6 of 19 words said
Our count matched 19 of 19
- ThrusterYes · 11×
- FlyYes · 7×
- SpaceXYes · 7×
- 2028Yes · 1×
Workday
Tue, Oct 13 · Innovation Keynote
4 of 13 words said
Our count matched 13 of 13
- AIYes · 49×
- AgentYes · 34×
- SanaYes · 7×
- DeterministicYes · 3×
Elon Musk
Sun, Oct 11 · Posts this week (October 5 - October 11)
1 of 12 words said
Settled by the venues; no transcript count yet
- TeslaYes · 39×
- TrumpNo · 4×
- BorderNo · 3×
- SamNo · 2×

Who is covered

45, most active first

Microsoft13 events3 open
Elon Musk25 events · 19 transcripts2 open
NVIDIA16 events2 open
Oracle11 events2 open
Robinhood10 events2 open
Adobe8 events2 open
Verizon7 events2 open
Apple16 events1 open
Tesla15 events1 open
Google12 events1 open
Uber10 events1 open
Walmart9 events1 open
Reddit8 events1 open
Sam Altman8 events · 1 transcript1 open
Airbnb7 events1 open
Snowflake7 events1 open
Spotify7 events1 open
Vlad Tenev7 events · 3 transcripts1 open
McDonald's6 events1 open
Boeing5 events1 open
SpaceX5 events1 open
Zoom4 events1 open
Figma3 events1 open
David Ellison2 events · 1 transcript1 open

Show all 45

Satya Nadella2 events1 open
NASA17 events
Jensen Huang8 events · 5 transcripts
Jamie Dimon5 events · 3 transcripts
Brian Armstrong4 events · 1 transcript
Salesforce4 events
Alex Karp2 events
Bill Ackman2 events
Bill Gates2 events
Jeff Yan2 events
John Ternus2 events · 1 transcript
Ken Griffin2 events · 2 transcripts
Lisa Su2 events · 1 transcript
Mark Zuckerberg2 events · 1 transcript
Michael Saylor2 events · 1 transcript
OpenAI2 events
Caterpillar1 event
Marc Benioff1 event · 1 transcript
Sridhar Ramaswamy1 event
Tim Cook1 event · 1 transcript
Workday1 event

Most-tracked words

by settled listings; probability = calibrated p for the next listing

Business: most-tracked words
Word	Who	Last 10 settled	Said when listed	Next time
TeslaElon Musk	Elon Musk	10/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes	21/2295%	75%n=22 from settlement history
TrumpElon Musk	Elon Musk	0/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no no no no no	1/195%	9%n=19 from settlement history
IranElon Musk	Elon Musk	0/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no no no no no	0/170%	2%n=17 from settlement history
SpaceXNASA	NASA	3/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no yes no yes yes	5/1631%	72%n=16 from settlement history
HoustonNASA	NASA	10/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes	15/15100%	82%n=15 from settlement history
WeatherNASA	NASA	6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes no yes yes yes no no yes	7/1450%	71%n=14 from settlement history
TrumpJensen Huang	Jensen Huang	1/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no no no	1/617%	12%n=6 from settlement history
HumanoidJensen Huang	Jensen Huang	3/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no yes no	3/560%	25%n=5 from settlement history
QuantumJensen Huang	Jensen Huang	3/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes yes no	3/560%	26%n=5 from settlement history
BlockchainVlad Tenev	Vlad Tenev	0/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no	0/50%	5%n=5 from settlement history
AIJamie Dimon	Jamie Dimon	4/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes	4/4100%	88%n=4 from settlement history
ChinaJamie Dimon	Jamie Dimon	4/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes	4/4100%	78%n=4 from settlement history
InflationJamie Dimon	Jamie Dimon	3/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no yes	3/475%	80%n=4 from settlement history
BitcoinVlad Tenev	Vlad Tenev	0/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no	0/40%	6%n=4 from settlement history
KalshiVlad Tenev	Vlad Tenev	0/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no	0/40%	8%n=4 from settlement history

Citeparrot.markets, “Business mention markets”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/business (CC BY 4.0)

Coming up

Sun, Oct 25

Mon, Oct 26

Tue, Oct 27

Wed, Oct 28

Tue, Nov 3

Recently settled

NVIDIA

Zoom

Elon Musk

Tesla

Workday

Elon Musk

Who is covered

Most-tracked words