Sean Duffy

Politics · VP & cabinetPersonTrump administrationMachine-attributedUpdated Oct 24, 2026, 11:52 UTC

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As of Oct 24, 2026, Kalshi has settled 53 word markets on Sean Duffy’s appearances since 2026, on 28 different words.

History Wall

1–29 of 29, most settled first

Sean Duffy: every word with settled markets, most settled first

Word	Apr 17keynote	May 19hearing	May 21hearing	Aug 23latest	Last 4	Settled	Probability
AI / Artificial Intelligence	YSettled yes: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Apr 17 keynote	NSettled no: AI / Artificial Intelligence, May 19 hearing	NSettled no: AI / Artificial Intelligence, May 21 hearing	0 times: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Aug 23 episode	1/425%	1/425%	37%n=3 from settlement history
Afford / Affordable / Affordability	YSettled yes: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Apr 17 keynote	YSettled yes: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, May 19 hearing	YSettled yes: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, May 21 hearing	–Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Aug 23 episode	3/3100%	3/3100%	64%n=3 from settlement history
Shutdown / Shut Down	YSettled yes: Shutdown / Shut Down, Apr 17 keynote	YSettled yes: Shutdown / Shut Down, May 19 hearing	YSettled yes: Shutdown / Shut Down, May 21 hearing	–Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Aug 23 episode	3/3100%	3/3100%	64%n=3 from settlement history
China / Chinese	YSettled yes: China / Chinese, Apr 17 keynote	NSettled no: China / Chinese, May 19 hearing	NSettled no: China / Chinese, May 21 hearing	–Not listed: China / Chinese, Aug 23 episode	1/333%	1/333%	37%n=3 from settlement history
Democrat	–Not listed: Democrat, Apr 17 keynote	NSettled no: Democrat, May 19 hearing	YSettled yes: Democrat, May 21 hearing	0 times: Democrat, Aug 23 episode	1/333%	1/333%	46%n=2 from settlement history
EV / Electric Vehicle	NSettled no: EV / Electric Vehicle, Apr 17 keynote	YSettled yes: EV / Electric Vehicle, May 19 hearing	NSettled no: EV / Electric Vehicle, May 21 hearing	–Not listed: EV / Electric Vehicle, Aug 23 episode	1/333%	1/333%	41%n=3 from settlement history
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	NSettled no: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Apr 17 keynote	YSettled yes: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, May 19 hearing	NSettled no: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, May 21 hearing	–Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Aug 23 episode	1/333%	1/333%	41%n=3 from settlement history
Trump3+ times	–Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Apr 17 keynote	NSettled no: Trump (3+ times), May 19 hearing	NSettled no: Trump (3+ times), May 21 hearing	3 times: Trump (3+ times), Aug 23 episode, counts as said	1/333%	1/333%	31%n=2 from settlement history
Iran / Iranian	NSettled no: Iran / Iranian, Apr 17 keynote	NSettled no: Iran / Iranian, May 19 hearing	NSettled no: Iran / Iranian, May 21 hearing	–Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Aug 23 episode	0/30%	0/30%	28%n=3 from settlement history
ATC / Air Traffic Control / Air Traffic Controller	–Not listed: ATC / Air Traffic Control / Air Traffic Controller, Apr 17 keynote	YSettled yes: ATC / Air Traffic Control / Air Traffic Controller, May 19 hearing	YSettled yes: ATC / Air Traffic Control / Air Traffic Controller, May 21 hearing	–Not listed: ATC / Air Traffic Control / Air Traffic Controller, Aug 23 episode	2/2100%	2/2100%	60%n=2 from settlement history
Road Trip	–Not listed: Road Trip, Apr 17 keynote	YSettled yes: Road Trip, May 19 hearing	YSettled yes: Road Trip, May 21 hearing	–Not listed: Road Trip, Aug 23 episode	2/2100%	2/2100%	60%n=2 from settlement history
Biden	–Not listed: Biden, Apr 17 keynote	YSettled yes: Biden, May 19 hearing	NSettled no: Biden, May 21 hearing	–Not listed: Biden, Aug 23 episode	1/250%	1/250%	45%n=2 from settlement history
Boeing	–Not listed: Boeing, Apr 17 keynote	NSettled no: Boeing, May 19 hearing	NSettled no: Boeing, May 21 hearing	–Not listed: Boeing, Aug 23 episode	0/20%	0/20%	31%n=2 from settlement history
Spirit	–Not listed: Spirit, Apr 17 keynote	NSettled no: Spirit, May 19 hearing	NSettled no: Spirit, May 21 hearing	–Not listed: Spirit, Aug 23 episode	0/20%	0/20%	31%n=2 from settlement history
ICE / TSA	YSettled yes: ICE / TSA, Apr 17 keynote	–Not listed: ICE / TSA, May 19 hearing	–Not listed: ICE / TSA, May 21 hearing	–Not listed: ICE / TSA, Aug 23 episode	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Immigrant / Immigration	–Not listed: Immigrant / Immigration, Apr 17 keynote	–Not listed: Immigrant / Immigration, May 19 hearing	–Not listed: Immigrant / Immigration, May 21 hearing	1 time: Immigrant / Immigration, Aug 23 episode, counts as said	1/1100%	1/1100%	–
Trump	YSettled yes: Trump, Apr 17 keynote	–Not listed: Trump, May 19 hearing	–Not listed: Trump, May 21 hearing	–Not listed: Trump, Aug 23 episode	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Air Traffic Control / Air Traffic Controller	–Not listed: Air Traffic Control / Air Traffic Controller, Apr 17 keynote	–Not listed: Air Traffic Control / Air Traffic Controller, May 19 hearing	–Not listed: Air Traffic Control / Air Traffic Controller, May 21 hearing	0 times: Air Traffic Control / Air Traffic Controller, Aug 23 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–
Artemis / Moon	–Not listed: Artemis / Moon, Apr 17 keynote	–Not listed: Artemis / Moon, May 19 hearing	–Not listed: Artemis / Moon, May 21 hearing	0 times: Artemis / Moon, Aug 23 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–
Election	–Not listed: Election, Apr 17 keynote	–Not listed: Election, May 19 hearing	–Not listed: Election, May 21 hearing	0 times: Election, Aug 23 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–
FAA	–Not listed: FAA, Apr 17 keynote	–Not listed: FAA, May 19 hearing	–Not listed: FAA, May 21 hearing	0 times: FAA, Aug 23 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–
Freedom 250	–Not listed: Freedom 250, Apr 17 keynote	–Not listed: Freedom 250, May 19 hearing	–Not listed: Freedom 250, May 21 hearing	0 times: Freedom 250, Aug 23 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–
Game / Gamer / Gaming	–Not listed: Game / Gamer / Gaming, Apr 17 keynote	–Not listed: Game / Gamer / Gaming, May 19 hearing	–Not listed: Game / Gamer / Gaming, May 21 hearing	0 times: Game / Gamer / Gaming, Aug 23 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–
Road Trip / Great American Road Trip	–Not listed: Road Trip / Great American Road Trip, Apr 17 keynote	–Not listed: Road Trip / Great American Road Trip, May 19 hearing	–Not listed: Road Trip / Great American Road Trip, May 21 hearing	0 times: Road Trip / Great American Road Trip, Aug 23 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–
Hormuz	NSettled no: Hormuz, Apr 17 keynote	–Not listed: Hormuz, May 19 hearing	–Not listed: Hormuz, May 21 hearing	–Not listed: Hormuz, Aug 23 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
LaGuardia	NSettled no: LaGuardia, Apr 17 keynote	–Not listed: LaGuardia, May 19 hearing	–Not listed: LaGuardia, May 21 hearing	–Not listed: LaGuardia, Aug 23 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Manufacturing	NSettled no: Manufacturing, Apr 17 keynote	–Not listed: Manufacturing, May 19 hearing	–Not listed: Manufacturing, May 21 hearing	–Not listed: Manufacturing, Aug 23 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Nuclear	–Not listed: Nuclear, Apr 17 keynote	–Not listed: Nuclear, May 19 hearing	–Not listed: Nuclear, May 21 hearing	0 times: Nuclear, Aug 23 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–
Republican	–Not listed: Republican, Apr 17 keynote	–Not listed: Republican, May 19 hearing	–Not listed: Republican, May 21 hearing	0 times: Republican, Aug 23 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–

• Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
• N: settled no
• not listed
• probability next time, with n
• Select a word or a cell for its quotes

What the columns mean

Last N

of the appearances shown, how many counted as said

Settled

every settled market of the word: said / listed

Probability

the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history

Citeparrot.markets, “Sean Duffy: mention market word history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/sean-duffy (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/sean-duffy · words: /api/v1/history?entity=sean-duffy · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP