Fed mention markets

As of Oct 23, 2026, Parrot covers 82 Kalshi and Polymarket Fed mention-market events (2 open) for 13 people, shows and companies, with 92 transcripts.

The Federal Reserve and other central banks: FOMC pressers, the chair, governors.

Data updated · Source: Kalshi, Polymarket, transcripts

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Numbers: events in the next 14 days

Coming up

next 14 days · 1 event

K = Kalshi, P = Polymarket: mid prices, up to about 20 minutes old. Not advice.

Wed, Oct 28

1 event

FOMC press conference · October press conference

FOMC press conferenceOctober press conference
2:30 pm ET
FOMC press conference: times each word was said per appearance, oldest first, and the probability for the next one
Word7 listings before the last6 listings before the last5 listings before the last4 listings before the last3 listings before the last2 listings before the last1 listing before the lastthe last settled listingChance
next time: probability
RestrictiveK 80¢Restrictive: said, 7 listings before the lastRestrictive: said, 6 listings before the lastRestrictive: said, 5 listings before the lastRestrictive: said, 4 listings before the lastRestrictive: said, 3 listings before the lastRestrictive: said, 2 listings before the lastRestrictive: said, 1 listing before the lastRestrictive: said, the last settled listing91% from settlement history
UncertaintyK 78¢Uncertainty: no appearance in 7 listings before the lastUncertainty: said, 6 listings before the lastUncertainty: said, 5 listings before the lastUncertainty: said, 4 listings before the lastUncertainty: said, 3 listings before the lastUncertainty: said, 2 listings before the lastUncertainty: said, 1 listing before the lastUncertainty: said, the last settled listing87% from settlement history
Central BankK 94¢Central Bank: no appearance in 7 listings before the lastCentral Bank: no appearance in 6 listings before the lastCentral Bank: no appearance in 5 listings before the lastCentral Bank: said, 4 listings before the lastCentral Bank: said, 3 listings before the lastCentral Bank: said, 2 listings before the lastCentral Bank: said, 1 listing before the lastCentral Bank: said, the last settled listing85% from settlement history
ShockK 80¢Shock: no appearance in 7 listings before the lastShock: no appearance in 6 listings before the lastShock: no appearance in 5 listings before the lastShock: said, 4 listings before the lastShock: said, 3 listings before the lastShock: said, 2 listings before the lastShock: said, 1 listing before the lastShock: said, the last settled listing85% from settlement history
AIK 81¢AI: said, 7 listings before the lastAI: said, 6 listings before the lastAI: said, 5 listings before the lastAI: said, 4 listings before the lastAI: not said, 3 listings before the lastAI: said, 2 listings before the lastAI: said, 1 listing before the lastAI: said, the last settled listing77% from settlement history
Good DayK 94¢ · P 94¢Good Day: no appearance in 7 listings before the lastGood Day: no appearance in 6 listings before the lastGood Day: no appearance in 5 listings before the lastGood Day: no appearance in 4 listings before the lastGood Day: no appearance in 3 listings before the lastGood Day: no appearance in 2 listings before the lastGood Day: said, 1 listing before the lastGood Day: said, the last settled listing76% from settlement history
KalshiPolymarket+57 more wordsLast transcript · Sep 16, 2026

Recently settled

  1. Kevin Warsh

    Thu, Oct 15 · Fireside chat with International Monetary Fund

    6 of 19 words said

    Settled by the venues; no transcript count yet
    • 2008Yes
    • AIYes
    • Price StabilityYes
    • ProductivityYes

Who is covered

8, most active first

Most-tracked words

by settled listings; probability = calibrated p for the next listing
Fed: most-tracked words
WordWhoLast 10 settledSaid when listedNext time
Good AfternoonFOMC press conferenceFOMC press conference6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes yes yes yes yes no no no14/1878%55%n=18 from settlement history
TrumpFOMC press conferenceFOMC press conference0/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no no no no no1/186%9%n=18 from settlement history
Inflation 40+ timesFOMC press conferenceFOMC press conference5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes no yes no no no no9/1560%40%n=15 from settlement history
TrumpJerome PowellJerome Powell0/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no no no no no0/120%8%n=12 from settlement history
RecessionJerome PowellJerome Powell4/9Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes yes no no no yes no4/944%39%n=9 from settlement history
Good AfternoonJerome PowellJerome Powell1/9Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no no no no no no1/911%14%n=9 from settlement history
InflationChristopher WallerChristopher Waller4/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no yes yes no yes4/757%57%n=7 from settlement history
AIKevin WarshKevin Warsh5/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes yes yes yes5/683%72%n=6 from settlement history
Monetary PolicyChristopher WallerChristopher Waller3/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no yes yes yes3/650%51%n=6 from settlement history
TrumpKevin WarshKevin Warsh1/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no no no1/617%18%n=6 from settlement history
ProductivityKevin WarshKevin Warsh5/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes5/5100%75%n=5 from settlement history
ProductivityChristopher WallerChristopher Waller4/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes yes yes4/580%58%n=5 from settlement history
AIMichelle BowmanMichelle Bowman4/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes4/4100%77%n=4 from settlement history
AIMichael BarrMichael Barr3/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes yes3/475%70%n=4 from settlement history
Leverage RatioMichelle BowmanMichelle Bowman3/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes yes3/475%72%n=4 from settlement history
Basel IIIMichelle BowmanMichelle Bowman3/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no3/475%39%n=4 from settlement history
AffordMichael BarrMichael Barr2/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes no2/450%28%n=4 from settlement history
OilMichael BarrMichael Barr1/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no no1/425%25%n=4 from settlement history

Citeparrot.markets, “Fed mention markets”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/fed (CC BY 4.0)