US Supreme Court
As of Oct 24, 2026, Kalshi has settled 71 word markets on the US Supreme Court’s appearances since 2025, on 64 different words.
History Wall
1–40 of 64, most settled first · page 1 of 2| Word | Nov 6 ’25appearance | Mar 23 ’26hearing | Mar 25hearing | Mar 26hearing | Apr 1latest | Last 5 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional | Not listed: Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional, Nov 6 ’25 appearance | Settled yes: Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional, Mar 23 ’26 hearing | Settled yes: Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional, Mar 25 hearing | Settled no: Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional, Mar 26 hearing | Not listed: Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional, Apr 1 hearing | 2/367% | 2/367% | 51%n=3 from settlement history |
| China | Settled yes: China, Nov 6 ’25 appearance | Not listed: China, Mar 23 ’26 hearing | Not listed: China, Mar 25 hearing | Not listed: China, Mar 26 hearing | Settled yes: China, Apr 1 hearing | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 56%n=2 from settlement history |
| Amicus | Not listed: Amicus, Nov 6 ’25 appearance | Not listed: Amicus, Mar 23 ’26 hearing | Not listed: Amicus, Mar 25 hearing | Settled no: Amicus, Mar 26 hearing | Settled yes: Amicus, Apr 1 hearing | 1/250% | 1/250% | 46%n=2 from settlement history |
| Deport / Deportation | Not listed: Deport / Deportation, Nov 6 ’25 appearance | Not listed: Deport / Deportation, Mar 23 ’26 hearing | Settled yes: Deport / Deportation, Mar 25 hearing | Not listed: Deport / Deportation, Mar 26 hearing | Settled no: Deport / Deportation, Apr 1 hearing | 1/250% | 1/250% | 44%n=2 from settlement history |
| National Security | Settled yes: National Security, Nov 6 ’25 appearance | Not listed: National Security, Mar 23 ’26 hearing | Settled no: National Security, Mar 25 hearing | Not listed: National Security, Mar 26 hearing | Not listed: National Security, Apr 1 hearing | 1/250% | 1/250% | 41%n=2 from settlement history |
| Trump | Not listed: Trump, Nov 6 ’25 appearance | Settled no: Trump, Mar 23 ’26 hearing | Settled no: Trump, Mar 25 hearing | Not listed: Trump, Mar 26 hearing | Not listed: Trump, Apr 1 hearing | 0/20% | 0/20% | 32%n=2 from settlement history |
| Canada | Settled yes: Canada, Nov 6 ’25 appearance | Not listed: Canada, Mar 23 ’26 hearing | Not listed: Canada, Mar 25 hearing | Not listed: Canada, Mar 26 hearing | Not listed: Canada, Apr 1 hearing | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Colorado | Not listed: Colorado, Nov 6 ’25 appearance | Not listed: Colorado, Mar 23 ’26 hearing | Not listed: Colorado, Mar 25 hearing | Settled yes: Colorado, Mar 26 hearing | Not listed: Colorado, Apr 1 hearing | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Congress / Congressional | Not listed: Congress / Congressional, Nov 6 ’25 appearance | Settled yes: Congress / Congressional, Mar 23 ’26 hearing | Not listed: Congress / Congressional, Mar 25 hearing | Not listed: Congress / Congressional, Mar 26 hearing | Not listed: Congress / Congressional, Apr 1 hearing | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Constitution / Constitutional | Not listed: Constitution / Constitutional, Nov 6 ’25 appearance | Not listed: Constitution / Constitutional, Mar 23 ’26 hearing | Not listed: Constitution / Constitutional, Mar 25 hearing | Not listed: Constitution / Constitutional, Mar 26 hearing | Settled yes: Constitution / Constitutional, Apr 1 hearing | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Deadline | Not listed: Deadline, Nov 6 ’25 appearance | Settled yes: Deadline, Mar 23 ’26 hearing | Not listed: Deadline, Mar 25 hearing | Not listed: Deadline, Mar 26 hearing | Not listed: Deadline, Apr 1 hearing | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Election Day | Not listed: Election Day, Nov 6 ’25 appearance | Settled yes: Election Day, Mar 23 ’26 hearing | Not listed: Election Day, Mar 25 hearing | Not listed: Election Day, Mar 26 hearing | Not listed: Election Day, Apr 1 hearing | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Exempt / Exemption | Not listed: Exempt / Exemption, Nov 6 ’25 appearance | Not listed: Exempt / Exemption, Mar 23 ’26 hearing | Not listed: Exempt / Exemption, Mar 25 hearing | Settled yes: Exempt / Exemption, Mar 26 hearing | Not listed: Exempt / Exemption, Apr 1 hearing | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| FAA | Not listed: FAA, Nov 6 ’25 appearance | Not listed: FAA, Mar 23 ’26 hearing | Not listed: FAA, Mar 25 hearing | Settled yes: FAA, Mar 26 hearing | Not listed: FAA, Apr 1 hearing | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Fraud | Not listed: Fraud, Nov 6 ’25 appearance | Settled yes: Fraud, Mar 23 ’26 hearing | Not listed: Fraud, Mar 25 hearing | Not listed: Fraud, Mar 26 hearing | Not listed: Fraud, Apr 1 hearing | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Illegal Alien | Not listed: Illegal Alien, Nov 6 ’25 appearance | Not listed: Illegal Alien, Mar 23 ’26 hearing | Not listed: Illegal Alien, Mar 25 hearing | Not listed: Illegal Alien, Mar 26 hearing | Settled yes: Illegal Alien, Apr 1 hearing | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Immigrant / Immigration | Not listed: Immigrant / Immigration, Nov 6 ’25 appearance | Not listed: Immigrant / Immigration, Mar 23 ’26 hearing | Not listed: Immigrant / Immigration, Mar 25 hearing | Not listed: Immigrant / Immigration, Mar 26 hearing | Settled yes: Immigrant / Immigration, Apr 1 hearing | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Military | Not listed: Military, Nov 6 ’25 appearance | Settled yes: Military, Mar 23 ’26 hearing | Not listed: Military, Mar 25 hearing | Not listed: Military, Mar 26 hearing | Not listed: Military, Apr 1 hearing | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Mississippi | Not listed: Mississippi, Nov 6 ’25 appearance | Settled yes: Mississippi, Mar 23 ’26 hearing | Not listed: Mississippi, Mar 25 hearing | Not listed: Mississippi, Mar 26 hearing | Not listed: Mississippi, Apr 1 hearing | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Postal Service | Not listed: Postal Service, Nov 6 ’25 appearance | Settled yes: Postal Service, Mar 23 ’26 hearing | Not listed: Postal Service, Mar 25 hearing | Not listed: Postal Service, Mar 26 hearing | Not listed: Postal Service, Apr 1 hearing | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Precedent | Not listed: Precedent, Nov 6 ’25 appearance | Not listed: Precedent, Mar 23 ’26 hearing | Not listed: Precedent, Mar 25 hearing | Not listed: Precedent, Mar 26 hearing | Settled yes: Precedent, Apr 1 hearing | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Refugee | Not listed: Refugee, Nov 6 ’25 appearance | Not listed: Refugee, Mar 23 ’26 hearing | Settled yes: Refugee, Mar 25 hearing | Not listed: Refugee, Mar 26 hearing | Not listed: Refugee, Apr 1 hearing | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Regulate / Regulation | Settled yes: Regulate / Regulation, Nov 6 ’25 appearance | Not listed: Regulate / Regulation, Mar 23 ’26 hearing | Not listed: Regulate / Regulation, Mar 25 hearing | Not listed: Regulate / Regulation, Mar 26 hearing | Not listed: Regulate / Regulation, Apr 1 hearing | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Slaughter | Not listed: Slaughter, Nov 6 ’25 appearance | Not listed: Slaughter, Mar 23 ’26 hearing | Not listed: Slaughter, Mar 25 hearing | Not listed: Slaughter, Mar 26 hearing | Settled yes: Slaughter, Apr 1 hearing | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| State Line | Not listed: State Line, Nov 6 ’25 appearance | Not listed: State Line, Mar 23 ’26 hearing | Not listed: State Line, Mar 25 hearing | Settled yes: State Line, Mar 26 hearing | Not listed: State Line, Apr 1 hearing | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Steel | Settled yes: Steel, Nov 6 ’25 appearance | Not listed: Steel, Mar 23 ’26 hearing | Not listed: Steel, Mar 25 hearing | Not listed: Steel, Mar 26 hearing | Not listed: Steel, Apr 1 hearing | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Tax | Settled yes: Tax, Nov 6 ’25 appearance | Not listed: Tax, Mar 23 ’26 hearing | Not listed: Tax, Mar 25 hearing | Not listed: Tax, Mar 26 hearing | Not listed: Tax, Apr 1 hearing | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Tourist / Tourism | Not listed: Tourist / Tourism, Nov 6 ’25 appearance | Not listed: Tourist / Tourism, Mar 23 ’26 hearing | Not listed: Tourist / Tourism, Mar 25 hearing | Not listed: Tourist / Tourism, Mar 26 hearing | Settled yes: Tourist / Tourism, Apr 1 hearing | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Trillion | Settled yes: Trillion, Nov 6 ’25 appearance | Not listed: Trillion, Mar 23 ’26 hearing | Not listed: Trillion, Mar 25 hearing | Not listed: Trillion, Mar 26 hearing | Not listed: Trillion, Apr 1 hearing | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Wong Kim | Not listed: Wong Kim, Nov 6 ’25 appearance | Not listed: Wong Kim, Mar 23 ’26 hearing | Not listed: Wong Kim, Mar 25 hearing | Not listed: Wong Kim, Mar 26 hearing | Settled yes: Wong Kim, Apr 1 hearing | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| 2020 | Not listed: 2020, Nov 6 ’25 appearance | Settled no: 2020, Mar 23 ’26 hearing | Not listed: 2020, Mar 25 hearing | Not listed: 2020, Mar 26 hearing | Not listed: 2020, Apr 1 hearing | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Amazon | Not listed: Amazon, Nov 6 ’25 appearance | Not listed: Amazon, Mar 23 ’26 hearing | Not listed: Amazon, Mar 25 hearing | Settled no: Amazon, Mar 26 hearing | Not listed: Amazon, Apr 1 hearing | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Biden | Not listed: Biden, Nov 6 ’25 appearance | Not listed: Biden, Mar 23 ’26 hearing | Settled no: Biden, Mar 25 hearing | Not listed: Biden, Mar 26 hearing | Not listed: Biden, Apr 1 hearing | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Billion | Not listed: Billion, Nov 6 ’25 appearance | Not listed: Billion, Mar 23 ’26 hearing | Not listed: Billion, Mar 25 hearing | Settled no: Billion, Mar 26 hearing | Not listed: Billion, Apr 1 hearing | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Birthright | Not listed: Birthright, Nov 6 ’25 appearance | Not listed: Birthright, Mar 23 ’26 hearing | Settled no: Birthright, Mar 25 hearing | Not listed: Birthright, Mar 26 hearing | Not listed: Birthright, Apr 1 hearing | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Bissonnette | Not listed: Bissonnette, Nov 6 ’25 appearance | Not listed: Bissonnette, Mar 23 ’26 hearing | Not listed: Bissonnette, Mar 25 hearing | Settled no: Bissonnette, Mar 26 hearing | Not listed: Bissonnette, Apr 1 hearing | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Border Patrol | Not listed: Border Patrol, Nov 6 ’25 appearance | Not listed: Border Patrol, Mar 23 ’26 hearing | Settled no: Border Patrol, Mar 25 hearing | Not listed: Border Patrol, Mar 26 hearing | Not listed: Border Patrol, Apr 1 hearing | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Capacity | Not listed: Capacity, Nov 6 ’25 appearance | Not listed: Capacity, Mar 23 ’26 hearing | Settled no: Capacity, Mar 25 hearing | Not listed: Capacity, Mar 26 hearing | Not listed: Capacity, Apr 1 hearing | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Checkpoint | Not listed: Checkpoint, Nov 6 ’25 appearance | Not listed: Checkpoint, Mar 23 ’26 hearing | Settled no: Checkpoint, Mar 25 hearing | Not listed: Checkpoint, Mar 26 hearing | Not listed: Checkpoint, Apr 1 hearing | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Child / Children | Not listed: Child / Children, Nov 6 ’25 appearance | Not listed: Child / Children, Mar 23 ’26 hearing | Settled no: Child / Children, Mar 25 hearing | Not listed: Child / Children, Mar 26 hearing | Not listed: Child / Children, Apr 1 hearing | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 5Settled results come from the venues. Our own transcript counts appear here once transcripts arrive for these appearances. How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2026 | HearingWhat will the Supreme Court Justices say during the Trump birthright citizenship hearing? | no transcript | 15 | 9 yes · 6 no | – |
| Mar 26, 2026 | HearingWhat will the Supreme Court Justices say during the hearing on last-mile delivery? | no transcript | 17 | 4 yes · 13 no | – |
| Mar 25, 2026 | HearingWhat the Supreme Court Justices say during the asylum seekers hearing? | no transcript | 16 | 3 yes · 13 no | – |
| Mar 23, 2026 | HearingWhat will the Supreme Court say during the Mail in Ballot hearing? | no transcript | 12 | 8 yes · 4 no | – |
| Nov 6, 2025 | AppearanceWhat will the Supreme Court Justices say during the tariff cases against Trump? | no transcript | 15 | 7 yes · 8 no | – |
Citeparrot.markets, “US Supreme Court: mention market word history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/us-supreme-court (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/us-supreme-court · words: /api/v1/history?entity=us-supreme-court · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP