Not financial advice

Not financial advice. Rates and probabilities are base rates from history, not forecasts.

• Data, not recommendations. Nothing on Parrot tells you to buy, sell or hold anything.
• History is not a forecast. A rate says how often something happened before. Speakers change their words, venues change their lists, and small samples mislead. Every rate is shown with its sample size for that reason.
• Markets are often sharper. In our own tests, market prices close to the event already contained what word history knows.
• Data can be wrong or late. We publish our measured accuracy and every known mismatch on Accuracy. Venues settle their own markets; their result stands.
• No trading here. Parrot offers no trading. Venue availability depends on where you live.
• Conflicts. People who run Parrot trade on Kalshi and Polymarket, including mention markets. See Disclosure.

Updated 2026-10-20. Plain text for agents.