John Kerry
As of Oct 24, 2026, Kalshi has settled 13 word markets on John Kerry’s appearances since 2026, on 13 different words.
History Wall
1–13 of 13, most settled first| Word | Apr 9episode | Apr 15latest | Last 2 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear | Settled yes: Nuclear, Apr 9 episode | Not listed: Nuclear, Apr 15 keynote | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | – |
| Obama | Settled yes: Obama, Apr 9 episode | Not listed: Obama, Apr 15 keynote | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | – |
| Trump | Settled yes: Trump, Apr 9 episode | Not listed: Trump, Apr 15 keynote | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Settled no: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Apr 9 episode | Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Apr 15 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Settled no: AI / Artificial Intelligence , Apr 9 episode | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence , Apr 15 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| China | Settled no: China, Apr 9 episode | Not listed: China, Apr 15 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Climate | Settled no: Climate, Apr 9 episode | Not listed: Climate, Apr 15 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Democracy | Settled no: Democracy, Apr 9 episode | Not listed: Democracy, Apr 15 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Election | Settled no: Election, Apr 9 episode | Not listed: Election, Apr 15 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Settled no: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Apr 9 episode | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Apr 15 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Settled no: Israel / Israeli, Apr 9 episode | Not listed: Israel / Israeli, Apr 15 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Republican | Settled no: Republican, Apr 9 episode | Not listed: Republican, Apr 15 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Tariff | Settled no: Tariff, Apr 9 episode | Not listed: Tariff, Apr 15 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 2Settled results come from the venues. Our own transcript counts appear here once transcripts arrive for these appearances. How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15, 2026 | KeynoteWhat will John Kerry say during Semafor World Economy 2026? | no transcript | 13 | 1 yes · 12 no | – |
| Apr 9, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will John Kerry say during his MS NOW interview? | no transcript | 14 | 3 yes · 11 no | – |
Citeparrot.markets, “John Kerry: mention market word history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/john-kerry (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/john-kerry · words: /api/v1/history?entity=john-kerry · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP