Will Gavin Newsom say “Democracy”?

As of Oct 24, 2026, Gavin Newsom said “Democracy” at 10 of 20 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Nov 12, 2025 (50%), most recently on May 27, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 44% (n=20, from settlement history), not a forecast.

44%from settlement history only · n=20counts: named speaker only
Last 10
4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes no no no no no yes yes
Streak
said the last 2 times
Counts
named speaker only
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GET /api/v1/word?entity=gavin-newsom&word=democracy

Updated

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Gavin Newsom

Democracy

Probability
44% · n=20
Settled
10/20 (50%)

Next listing counts: named speaker only

We don’t have transcripts for Gavin Newsom yet, so there are no quotes here: each cell shows how that market settled.

What will Gavin Newsom say during his CA election announcement? · settled yes

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What will Gavin Newsom say during the CAP IDEAS Conference? · settled yes

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What will Gavin Newsom say during his revised budget plan? · settled no

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What will Gavin Newsom say during his Earth Day announcement? · settled no

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What will Gavin Newsom say during his press conference? · settled no

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What will Gavin Newsom say during his press conference? · not listed

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What will Gavin Newsom say during his behavioral health announcement? · settled no

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What will Gavin Newsom say during his announcement on homelessness? · settled no

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What will Gavin Newsom say during his MS NOW interview? · settled yes

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What will Gavin Newsom say during his book tour discussion? · settled no

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Every settled listing

newest first · 20 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
May 27, 2026DemocracyKalshiYes
May 19, 2026DemocracyKalshiYes
May 14, 2026DemocracyKalshiNo
Apr 22, 2026DemocracyKalshiNo
Apr 2, 2026DemocracyKalshiNo
Mar 11, 2026DemocracyKalshiNo
Mar 3, 2026DemocracyKalshiNo
Feb 26, 2026DemocracyKalshiYes
Feb 25, 2026DemocracyKalshiNo
Feb 23, 2026DemocracyKalshiYes
Feb 21, 2026DemocracyKalshiNo
Feb 20, 2026DemocracyKalshiYes
Feb 11, 2026DemocracyKalshiNo
Jan 23, 2026DemocracyKalshiYes
Jan 17, 2026DemocracyKalshiYes
Jan 9, 2026DemocracyKalshiYes
Jan 6, 2026DemocracyKalshiNo
Dec 13, 2025DemocracyKalshiNo
Dec 4, 2025DemocracyKalshiYes
Nov 12, 2025DemocracyKalshiYes

Questions

How often does Gavin Newsom say “Democracy”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Gavin Newsom said “Democracy” at 10 of 20 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Nov 12, 2025 (50%), most recently on May 27, 2026.
What is the probability Gavin Newsom says “Democracy” next time?
44%, from settlement history (n=20). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Gavin Newsom: ‘Democracy’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/gavin-newsom/words/democracy (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=gavin-newsom&word=democracy · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=gavin-newsom&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP