Barack Obama
As of Oct 23, 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket have settled 52 word markets on Barack Obama’s appearances since 2024, on 37 different words. Next: Rally, Oct 24, 2026 (24 words listed).
Next: Rally ·
24 words listed · Occasion page
Who counts: Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi| Word | Aug 20 ’24speech | Jun 17 ’26interview | Jun 18remarks | Jun 19latest | Last 4 | Settled | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michelle | Settled yes: Michelle, Aug 20 ’24 speech | Not listed: Michelle, Jun 17 ’26 interview | Settled yes: Michelle, Jun 18 remarks | Settled yes: Michelle, Jun 19 interview | 3/3100% | 3/3100% | 59%n=3 from settlement history | 72¢ Kalshi |
| Chicago | Not listed: Chicago, Aug 20 ’24 speech | Not listed: Chicago, Jun 17 ’26 interview | Settled yes: Chicago, Jun 18 remarks | Settled yes: Chicago, Jun 19 interview | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 58%n=2 from settlement history | 26¢ Kalshi |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Aug 20 ’24 speech | Settled yes: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Jun 17 ’26 interview | Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Jun 18 remarks | Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Jun 19 interview | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability | 88¢ Kalshi |
| 250 | Not listed: 250, Aug 20 ’24 speech | Settled no: 250, Jun 17 ’26 interview | Settled yes: 250, Jun 18 remarks | Not listed: 250, Jun 19 interview | 1/250% | 1/250% | 46%n=2 from settlement history | 14¢ Kalshi |
| Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional | Not listed: Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional, Aug 20 ’24 speech | Not listed: Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional, Jun 17 ’26 interview | Not listed: Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional, Jun 18 remarks | Not listed: Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional, Jun 19 interview | – | 1/250% | 46%n=2 from settlement history | 87¢ Kalshi |
| Abortionnew | Not listed: Abortion, Aug 20 ’24 speech | Not listed: Abortion, Jun 17 ’26 interview | Not listed: Abortion, Jun 18 remarks | Not listed: Abortion, Jun 19 interview | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 18¢ Kalshi |
| Billionairenew | Not listed: Billionaire, Aug 20 ’24 speech | Not listed: Billionaire, Jun 17 ’26 interview | Not listed: Billionaire, Jun 18 remarks | Not listed: Billionaire, Jun 19 interview | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 87¢ Kalshi |
| China / Chinesenew | Not listed: China / Chinese, Aug 20 ’24 speech | Not listed: China / Chinese, Jun 17 ’26 interview | Not listed: China / Chinese, Jun 18 remarks | Not listed: China / Chinese, Jun 19 interview | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 24¢ Kalshi |
| Democracynew | Not listed: Democracy, Aug 20 ’24 speech | Not listed: Democracy, Jun 17 ’26 interview | Not listed: Democracy, Jun 18 remarks | Not listed: Democracy, Jun 19 interview | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 89¢ Kalshi |
| ICEnew | Not listed: ICE, Aug 20 ’24 speech | Not listed: ICE, Jun 17 ’26 interview | Not listed: ICE, Jun 18 remarks | Not listed: ICE, Jun 19 interview | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 83¢ Kalshi |
| Immigration / Immigrantnew | Not listed: Immigration / Immigrant, Aug 20 ’24 speech | Not listed: Immigration / Immigrant, Jun 17 ’26 interview | Not listed: Immigration / Immigrant, Jun 18 remarks | Not listed: Immigration / Immigrant, Jun 19 interview | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 76¢ Kalshi |
| Inflationnew | Not listed: Inflation, Aug 20 ’24 speech | Not listed: Inflation, Jun 17 ’26 interview | Not listed: Inflation, Jun 18 remarks | Not listed: Inflation, Jun 19 interview | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 77¢ Kalshi |
| Minimum Wagenew | Not listed: Minimum Wage, Aug 20 ’24 speech | Not listed: Minimum Wage, Jun 17 ’26 interview | Not listed: Minimum Wage, Jun 18 remarks | Not listed: Minimum Wage, Jun 19 interview | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 26¢ Kalshi |
| Social Securitynew | Not listed: Social Security, Aug 20 ’24 speech | Not listed: Social Security, Jun 17 ’26 interview | Not listed: Social Security, Jun 18 remarks | Not listed: Social Security, Jun 19 interview | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 72¢ Kalshi |
| Tariffnew | Not listed: Tariff, Aug 20 ’24 speech | Not listed: Tariff, Jun 17 ’26 interview | Not listed: Tariff, Jun 18 remarks | Not listed: Tariff, Jun 19 interview | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 80¢ Kalshi |
| Taxnew | Not listed: Tax, Aug 20 ’24 speech | Not listed: Tax, Jun 17 ’26 interview | Not listed: Tax, Jun 18 remarks | Not listed: Tax, Jun 19 interview | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 86¢ Kalshi |
| Trumpnew 2+ times | Not listed: Trump (2+ times), Aug 20 ’24 speech | Not listed: Trump (2+ times), Jun 17 ’26 interview | Not listed: Trump (2+ times), Jun 18 remarks | Not listed: Trump (2+ times), Jun 19 interview | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 90¢ Kalshi |
| Union / Unionizenew | Not listed: Union / Unionize, Aug 20 ’24 speech | Not listed: Union / Unionize, Jun 17 ’26 interview | Not listed: Union / Unionize, Jun 18 remarks | Not listed: Union / Unionize, Jun 19 interview | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 74¢ Kalshi |
| Vancenew | Not listed: Vance, Aug 20 ’24 speech | Not listed: Vance, Jun 17 ’26 interview | Not listed: Vance, Jun 18 remarks | Not listed: Vance, Jun 19 interview | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 38¢ Kalshi |
| Biden | Not listed: Biden, Aug 20 ’24 speech | Settled no: Biden, Jun 17 ’26 interview | Settled yes: Biden, Jun 18 remarks | Settled no: Biden, Jun 19 interview | 1/333% | 1/333% | 41%n=3 from settlement history | 31¢ Kalshi |
| Ballroom / Pool | Not listed: Ballroom / Pool, Aug 20 ’24 speech | Not listed: Ballroom / Pool, Jun 17 ’26 interview | Not listed: Ballroom / Pool, Jun 18 remarks | Settled no: Ballroom / Pool, Jun 19 interview | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability | 30¢ Kalshi |
| Healthcare | Not listed: Healthcare, Aug 20 ’24 speech | Not listed: Healthcare, Jun 17 ’26 interview | Not listed: Healthcare, Jun 18 remarks | Not listed: Healthcare, Jun 19 interview | – | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability | 88¢ Kalshi |
| Iran / Iranian | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Aug 20 ’24 speech | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Jun 17 ’26 interview | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Jun 18 remarks | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Jun 19 interview | – | 0/20% | 33%n=2 from settlement history | 80¢ Kalshi |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Aug 20 ’24 speech | Settled no: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Jun 17 ’26 interview | Settled no: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Jun 18 remarks | Settled no: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Jun 19 interview | 0/30% | 0/30% | 30%n=3 from settlement history | 74¢ Kalshi |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Every word
1–27 of 27, most settled first| Word | Aug 20 ’24speech | Jun 17 ’26interview | Jun 18remarks | Jun 19latest | Last 4 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | Not listed: Trump, Aug 20 ’24 speech | Settled no: Trump, Jun 17 ’26 interview | Settled no: Trump, Jun 18 remarks | Settled yes: Trump, Jun 19 interview | 1/333% | 1/333% | 39%n=3 from settlement history |
| Basketball | Not listed: Basketball, Aug 20 ’24 speech | Settled no: Basketball, Jun 17 ’26 interview | Settled no: Basketball, Jun 18 remarks | Settled no: Basketball, Jun 19 interview | 0/30% | 0/30% | 24%n=3 from settlement history |
| Hope | Settled yes: Hope, Aug 20 ’24 speech | Not listed: Hope, Jun 17 ’26 interview | Not listed: Hope, Jun 18 remarks | Settled yes: Hope, Jun 19 interview | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 52%n=2 from settlement history |
| Constitution | Not listed: Constitution, Aug 20 ’24 speech | Settled no: Constitution, Jun 17 ’26 interview | Settled yes: Constitution, Jun 18 remarks | Not listed: Constitution, Jun 19 interview | 1/250% | 1/250% | 50%n=2 from settlement history |
| Southside | Not listed: Southside, Aug 20 ’24 speech | Settled no: Southside, Jun 17 ’26 interview | Not listed: Southside, Jun 18 remarks | Settled yes: Southside, Jun 19 interview | 1/250% | 1/250% | 43%n=2 from settlement history |
| Harvard | Not listed: Harvard, Aug 20 ’24 speech | Settled no: Harvard, Jun 17 ’26 interview | Settled no: Harvard, Jun 18 remarks | Not listed: Harvard, Jun 19 interview | 0/20% | 0/20% | 34%n=2 from settlement history |
| Iran | Not listed: Iran, Aug 20 ’24 speech | Settled no: Iran, Jun 17 ’26 interview | Not listed: Iran, Jun 18 remarks | Settled no: Iran, Jun 19 interview | 0/20% | 0/20% | 27%n=2 from settlement history |
| World Cup | Not listed: World Cup, Aug 20 ’24 speech | Settled no: World Cup, Jun 17 ’26 interview | Not listed: World Cup, Jun 18 remarks | Settled no: World Cup, Jun 19 interview | 0/20% | 0/20% | 27%n=2 from settlement history |
| Obamacare/Affordable Care Act | Settled yes: Obamacare/Affordable Care Act, Aug 20 ’24 speech | Not listed: Obamacare/Affordable Care Act, Jun 17 ’26 interview | Not listed: Obamacare/Affordable Care Act, Jun 18 remarks | Not listed: Obamacare/Affordable Care Act, Jun 19 interview | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Black | Settled yes: Black, Aug 20 ’24 speech | Not listed: Black, Jun 17 ’26 interview | Not listed: Black, Jun 18 remarks | Not listed: Black, Jun 19 interview | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Climate change | Settled yes: Climate change, Aug 20 ’24 speech | Not listed: Climate change, Jun 17 ’26 interview | Not listed: Climate change, Jun 18 remarks | Not listed: Climate change, Jun 19 interview | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Democracy3+ times | Settled yes: Democracy 3+ times, Aug 20 ’24 speech | Not listed: Democracy 3+ times, Jun 17 ’26 interview | Not listed: Democracy 3+ times, Jun 18 remarks | Not listed: Democracy 3+ times, Jun 19 interview | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Donald Trump | Settled yes: Donald Trump, Aug 20 ’24 speech | Not listed: Donald Trump, Jun 17 ’26 interview | Not listed: Donald Trump, Jun 18 remarks | Not listed: Donald Trump, Jun 19 interview | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Joe Biden | Settled yes: Joe Biden, Aug 20 ’24 speech | Not listed: Joe Biden, Jun 17 ’26 interview | Not listed: Joe Biden, Jun 18 remarks | Not listed: Joe Biden, Jun 19 interview | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Lawyer | Not listed: Lawyer, Aug 20 ’24 speech | Not listed: Lawyer, Jun 17 ’26 interview | Settled yes: Lawyer, Jun 18 remarks | Not listed: Lawyer, Jun 19 interview | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Malia / Sasha | Not listed: Malia / Sasha, Aug 20 ’24 speech | Not listed: Malia / Sasha, Jun 17 ’26 interview | Settled yes: Malia / Sasha, Jun 18 remarks | Not listed: Malia / Sasha, Jun 19 interview | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| South Side | Not listed: South Side, Aug 20 ’24 speech | Not listed: South Side, Jun 17 ’26 interview | Settled yes: South Side, Jun 18 remarks | Not listed: South Side, Jun 19 interview | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Thank you7+ times | Settled yes: Thank you 7+ times, Aug 20 ’24 speech | Not listed: Thank you 7+ times, Jun 17 ’26 interview | Not listed: Thank you 7+ times, Jun 18 remarks | Not listed: Thank you 7+ times, Jun 19 interview | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Billion | Not listed: Billion, Aug 20 ’24 speech | Settled no: Billion, Jun 17 ’26 interview | Not listed: Billion, Jun 18 remarks | Not listed: Billion, Jun 19 interview | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Election / Midterm | Not listed: Election / Midterm, Aug 20 ’24 speech | Not listed: Election / Midterm, Jun 17 ’26 interview | Not listed: Election / Midterm, Jun 18 remarks | Settled no: Election / Midterm, Jun 19 interview | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Garden | Not listed: Garden, Aug 20 ’24 speech | Not listed: Garden, Jun 17 ’26 interview | Settled no: Garden, Jun 18 remarks | Not listed: Garden, Jun 19 interview | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Healthcare / Obamacare | Not listed: Healthcare / Obamacare, Aug 20 ’24 speech | Not listed: Healthcare / Obamacare, Jun 17 ’26 interview | Not listed: Healthcare / Obamacare, Jun 18 remarks | Settled no: Healthcare / Obamacare, Jun 19 interview | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Muslim | Settled no: Muslim, Aug 20 ’24 speech | Not listed: Muslim, Jun 17 ’26 interview | Not listed: Muslim, Jun 18 remarks | Not listed: Muslim, Jun 19 interview | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Pelosi | Settled no: Pelosi, Aug 20 ’24 speech | Not listed: Pelosi, Jun 17 ’26 interview | Not listed: Pelosi, Jun 18 remarks | Not listed: Pelosi, Jun 19 interview | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| UFC | Not listed: UFC, Aug 20 ’24 speech | Settled no: UFC, Jun 17 ’26 interview | Not listed: UFC, Jun 18 remarks | Not listed: UFC, Jun 19 interview | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Underdog | Settled no: Underdog, Aug 20 ’24 speech | Not listed: Underdog, Jun 17 ’26 interview | Not listed: Underdog, Jun 18 remarks | Not listed: Underdog, Jun 19 interview | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Yes we can | Settled no: Yes we can, Aug 20 ’24 speech | Not listed: Yes we can, Jun 17 ’26 interview | Not listed: Yes we can, Jun 18 remarks | Not listed: Yes we can, Jun 19 interview | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 4Settled results come from the venues. Our own transcript counts appear here once transcripts arrive for these appearances. How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 19, 2026 | InterviewWhat will Obama say during his MS NOW interview? | no transcript | 14 | 5 yes · 9 no | – |
| Jun 18, 2026 | RemarksWhat will Obama say during his Presidential Center Dedication Ceremony? | no transcript | 14 | 8 yes · 6 no | – |
| Jun 17, 2026 | InterviewWhat will Obama say during Good Morning America? | no transcript | 14 | 1 yes · 13 no | – |
| Aug 20, 2024 | SpeechWhat will Obama say during DNC speech? | no transcript | 13 | 9 yes · 4 no | – |
Citeparrot.markets, “Barack Obama: mention market word history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/barack-obama (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/barack-obama · words: /api/v1/history?entity=barack-obama · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP