What is a mention market?
A mention market is a prediction market on whether someone will say a word during an event. Will Tesla say “Optimus” on its earnings call? is one. Each word is its own yes-or-no market.
Where they trade
Kalshi and Polymarket list them. Since mid-2024 they have listed about 5,400 mention events: earnings calls, Fed press conferences, White House briefings, speeches and rallies, TV interviews, podcasts, award shows and sports broadcasts. Whether you can trade them depends on where you live.
How a market reads
- The word. "Tariff / Tariffs" means either form counts. Plurals and possessives usually count; other forms do not.
- The threshold. "(3+ times)" means the word must be said at least three times.
- The speaker. The rules name who must say it: one person, whoever holds a role, a company's representatives, or anyone at the event. This is where venues differ most. On earnings calls, Kalshi counts the company's speakers while Polymarket usually counts anyone, analysts included.
- The event. Which appearance counts, and sometimes which part: prepared remarks and Q&A, a monologue, a whole broadcast.
How they settle
The venue checks a recording or transcript after the event and settles each word YES or NO under its own rules. The venue's decision is final.
What Parrot adds
Parrot collects the transcripts and the settlement records behind these markets, so you can check before and after:
- how often this speaker has said the word lately, and where;
- how past markets on the word settled, with the sample size;
- after the event, the count under each venue's rule, with the quotes.
Parrot does not offer trading and is not advice. See Methodology for how we count.