Pete Buttigieg
As of Oct 24, 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket have settled 48 word markets on Pete Buttigieg’s appearances since 2024, on 38 different words.
History Wall
1–38 of 38, most settled first| Word | Aug 21 ’24speech | Dec 11 ’25episode | Jan 29 ’26episode | Apr 10latest | Last 4 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Healthcare | Not listed: Healthcare, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Settled yes: Healthcare, Dec 11 ’25 episode | Settled yes: Healthcare, Jan 29 ’26 episode | Settled yes: Healthcare, Apr 10 panel | 3/3100% | 3/3100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Republican | Not listed: Republican, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Settled yes: Republican, Dec 11 ’25 episode | Settled yes: Republican, Jan 29 ’26 episode | Settled yes: Republican, Apr 10 panel | 3/3100% | 3/3100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Trump | Not listed: Trump, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Settled yes: Trump, Dec 11 ’25 episode | Settled yes: Trump, Jan 29 ’26 episode | Settled yes: Trump, Apr 10 panel | 3/3100% | 3/3100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| 2028 / Campaign | Not listed: 2028 / Campaign, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Settled no: 2028 / Campaign, Dec 11 ’25 episode | Settled no: 2028 / Campaign, Jan 29 ’26 episode | Settled no: 2028 / Campaign, Apr 10 panel | 0/30% | 0/30% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Affordable / Affordability | Not listed: Affordable / Affordability, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Settled yes: Affordable / Affordability, Dec 11 ’25 episode | Settled yes: Affordable / Affordability, Jan 29 ’26 episode | Not listed: Affordable / Affordability, Apr 10 panel | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Dec 11 ’25 episode | Settled no: Shutdown / Shut Down, Jan 29 ’26 episode | Settled no: Shutdown / Shut Down, Apr 10 panel | 0/20% | 0/20% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Dec 11 ’25 episode | Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Jan 29 ’26 episode | Settled yes: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Apr 10 panel | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Citizen / American | Not listed: Citizen / American, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Not listed: Citizen / American, Dec 11 ’25 episode | Settled yes: Citizen / American, Jan 29 ’26 episode | Not listed: Citizen / American, Apr 10 panel | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Dec 11 ’25 episode | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Jan 29 ’26 episode | Settled yes: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Apr 10 panel | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Noem / Homan | Not listed: Noem / Homan, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Not listed: Noem / Homan, Dec 11 ’25 episode | Settled yes: Noem / Homan, Jan 29 ’26 episode | Not listed: Noem / Homan, Apr 10 panel | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Dec 11 ’25 episode | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Jan 29 ’26 episode | Settled yes: Iran / Iranian, Apr 10 panel | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Peace / Peaceful | Not listed: Peace / Peaceful, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Not listed: Peace / Peaceful, Dec 11 ’25 episode | Settled yes: Peace / Peaceful, Jan 29 ’26 episode | Not listed: Peace / Peaceful, Apr 10 panel | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | – |
| Protest / Protester | Not listed: Protest / Protester, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Not listed: Protest / Protester, Dec 11 ’25 episode | Settled yes: Protest / Protester, Jan 29 ’26 episode | Not listed: Protest / Protester, Apr 10 panel | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | – |
| TSA | Not listed: TSA, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Not listed: TSA, Dec 11 ’25 episode | Not listed: TSA, Jan 29 ’26 episode | Settled yes: TSA, Apr 10 panel | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Unite / Unity / United | Not listed: Unite / Unity / United, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Not listed: Unite / Unity / United, Dec 11 ’25 episode | Settled yes: Unite / Unity / United, Jan 29 ’26 episode | Not listed: Unite / Unity / United, Apr 10 panel | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Dec 11 ’25 episode | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Jan 29 ’26 episode | Settled no: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Apr 10 panel | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Antisemitism | Settled no: Antisemitism, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Not listed: Antisemitism, Dec 11 ’25 episode | Not listed: Antisemitism, Jan 29 ’26 episode | Not listed: Antisemitism, Apr 10 panel | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Biden | Not listed: Biden, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Settled no: Biden, Dec 11 ’25 episode | Not listed: Biden, Jan 29 ’26 episode | Not listed: Biden, Apr 10 panel | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Crypto/Bitcoin | Settled no: Crypto/Bitcoin, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Not listed: Crypto/Bitcoin, Dec 11 ’25 episode | Not listed: Crypto/Bitcoin, Jan 29 ’26 episode | Not listed: Crypto/Bitcoin, Apr 10 panel | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Ceasefire | Settled no: Ceasefire, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Not listed: Ceasefire, Dec 11 ’25 episode | Not listed: Ceasefire, Jan 29 ’26 episode | Not listed: Ceasefire, Apr 10 panel | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Climate change | Settled no: Climate change, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Not listed: Climate change, Dec 11 ’25 episode | Not listed: Climate change, Jan 29 ’26 episode | Not listed: Climate change, Apr 10 panel | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Constitution / Unconstitutional | Not listed: Constitution / Unconstitutional, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Not listed: Constitution / Unconstitutional, Dec 11 ’25 episode | Settled no: Constitution / Unconstitutional, Jan 29 ’26 episode | Not listed: Constitution / Unconstitutional, Apr 10 panel | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Not listed: Corrupt / Corruption, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Not listed: Corrupt / Corruption, Dec 11 ’25 episode | Not listed: Corrupt / Corruption, Jan 29 ’26 episode | Settled no: Corrupt / Corruption, Apr 10 panel | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Couch | Settled no: Couch, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Not listed: Couch, Dec 11 ’25 episode | Not listed: Couch, Jan 29 ’26 episode | Not listed: Couch, Apr 10 panel | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Delta | Settled no: Delta, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Not listed: Delta, Dec 11 ’25 episode | Not listed: Delta, Jan 29 ’26 episode | Not listed: Delta, Apr 10 panel | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Democracy | Not listed: Democracy, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Not listed: Democracy, Dec 11 ’25 episode | Not listed: Democracy, Jan 29 ’26 episode | Settled no: Democracy, Apr 10 panel | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Epstein | Not listed: Epstein, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Settled no: Epstein, Dec 11 ’25 episode | Not listed: Epstein, Jan 29 ’26 episode | Not listed: Epstein, Apr 10 panel | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Gay | Settled no: Gay, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Not listed: Gay, Dec 11 ’25 episode | Not listed: Gay, Jan 29 ’26 episode | Not listed: Gay, Apr 10 panel | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| ICE / National Guard | Not listed: ICE / National Guard, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Settled no: ICE / National Guard, Dec 11 ’25 episode | Not listed: ICE / National Guard, Jan 29 ’26 episode | Not listed: ICE / National Guard, Apr 10 panel | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Inflation | Settled no: Inflation, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Not listed: Inflation, Dec 11 ’25 episode | Not listed: Inflation, Jan 29 ’26 episode | Not listed: Inflation, Apr 10 panel | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Infrastructure | Settled no: Infrastructure, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Not listed: Infrastructure, Dec 11 ’25 episode | Not listed: Infrastructure, Jan 29 ’26 episode | Not listed: Infrastructure, Apr 10 panel | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Kamala | Not listed: Kamala, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Settled no: Kamala, Dec 11 ’25 episode | Not listed: Kamala, Jan 29 ’26 episode | Not listed: Kamala, Apr 10 panel | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Manufacturing | Settled no: Manufacturing, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Not listed: Manufacturing, Dec 11 ’25 episode | Not listed: Manufacturing, Jan 29 ’26 episode | Not listed: Manufacturing, Apr 10 panel | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Marriage | Settled no: Marriage, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Not listed: Marriage, Dec 11 ’25 episode | Not listed: Marriage, Jan 29 ’26 episode | Not listed: Marriage, Apr 10 panel | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Mayor2+ times | Settled no: Mayor 2+ times, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Not listed: Mayor 2+ times, Dec 11 ’25 episode | Not listed: Mayor 2+ times, Jan 29 ’26 episode | Not listed: Mayor 2+ times, Apr 10 panel | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Tariff | Not listed: Tariff, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Settled no: Tariff, Dec 11 ’25 episode | Not listed: Tariff, Jan 29 ’26 episode | Not listed: Tariff, Apr 10 panel | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Trans | Settled no: Trans, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Not listed: Trans, Dec 11 ’25 episode | Not listed: Trans, Jan 29 ’26 episode | Not listed: Trans, Apr 10 panel | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Weird/Weirdo | Settled no: Weird/Weirdo, Aug 21 ’24 speech | Not listed: Weird/Weirdo, Dec 11 ’25 episode | Not listed: Weird/Weirdo, Jan 29 ’26 episode | Not listed: Weird/Weirdo, Apr 10 panel | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 4Settled results come from the venues. Our own transcript counts appear here once transcripts arrive for these appearances. How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2026 | PanelWhat will Pete Buttigieg say during his NAN Fireside Chat? | no transcript | 13 | 7 yes · 6 no | – |
| Jan 29, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will Pete Buttigieg say during The Briefing With Jen Psaki? | no transcript | 12 | 9 yes · 3 no | – |
| Dec 11, 2025 | EpisodeWhat will Pete Buttigieg say on Jimmy Kimmel Live!? | no transcript | 10 | 4 yes · 6 no | – |
| Aug 21, 2024 | SpeechWhat will Pete Buttigieg say during DNC speech? | no transcript | 14 | 0 yes · 14 no | – |
Citeparrot.markets, “Pete Buttigieg: mention market word history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/pete-buttigieg (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/pete-buttigieg · words: /api/v1/history?entity=pete-buttigieg · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP