Mike Waltz
As of Oct 24, 2026, Kalshi has settled 55 word markets on Mike Waltz’s appearances since 2026, on 32 different words.
History Wall
1–32 of 32, most settled first| Word | Mar 20hearing | Apr 15hearing | Apr 19episode | Jul 26latest | Last 4 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trumpevery time | Settled yes: Trump, Mar 20 hearing | Settled yes: Trump, Apr 15 hearing | Settled yes: Trump, Apr 19 episode | Settled yes: Trump, Jul 26 episode | 4/4100% | 4/4100% | 66%n=2 from settlement history |
| Israel / Israeli | Settled yes: Israel / Israeli, Mar 20 hearing | Settled yes: Israel / Israeli, Apr 15 hearing | Settled no: Israel / Israeli, Apr 19 episode | Settled yes: Israel / Israeli, Jul 26 episode | 3/475% | 3/475% | 66%n=2 from settlement history |
| China / Chinese | Not listed: China / Chinese, Mar 20 hearing | Settled yes: China / Chinese, Apr 15 hearing | Settled yes: China / Chinese, Apr 19 episode | Settled yes: China / Chinese, Jul 26 episode | 3/3100% | 3/3100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Democracy / Democratic | Not listed: Democracy / Democratic, Mar 20 hearing | Settled no: Democracy / Democratic, Apr 15 hearing | Settled yes: Democracy / Democratic, Apr 19 episode | Settled no: Democracy / Democratic, Jul 26 episode | 1/333% | 1/333% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Hormuz | Settled no: Hormuz, Mar 20 hearing | Not listed: Hormuz, Apr 15 hearing | Settled yes: Hormuz, Apr 19 episode | Settled no: Hormuz, Jul 26 episode | 1/333% | 1/333% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| America First | Settled no: America First, Mar 20 hearing | Not listed: America First, Apr 15 hearing | Settled no: America First, Apr 19 episode | Settled no: America First, Jul 26 episode | 0/30% | 0/30% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Venezuela / Cuba | Not listed: Venezuela / Cuba, Mar 20 hearing | Settled no: Venezuela / Cuba, Apr 15 hearing | Settled no: Venezuela / Cuba, Apr 19 episode | Settled no: Venezuela / Cuba, Jul 26 episode | 0/30% | 0/30% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| NATO | Settled no: NATO, Mar 20 hearing | Not listed: NATO, Apr 15 hearing | Settled no: NATO, Apr 19 episode | Settled no: NATO, Jul 26 episode | 0/30% | 0/30% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Mar 20 hearing | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Apr 15 hearing | Settled yes: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Apr 19 episode | Settled yes: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Jul 26 episode | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | – |
| Taxpayer | Settled yes: Taxpayer, Mar 20 hearing | Settled yes: Taxpayer, Apr 15 hearing | Not listed: Taxpayer, Apr 19 episode | Not listed: Taxpayer, Jul 26 episode | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 66%n=2 from settlement history |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | Settled no: Terrorist / Terrorism, Mar 20 hearing | Settled yes: Terrorist / Terrorism, Apr 15 hearing | Not listed: Terrorist / Terrorism, Apr 19 episode | Not listed: Terrorist / Terrorism, Jul 26 episode | 1/250% | 1/250% | 53%n=2 from settlement history |
| Fraud | Not listed: Fraud, Mar 20 hearing | Settled no: Fraud, Apr 15 hearing | Settled no: Fraud, Apr 19 episode | Not listed: Fraud, Jul 26 episode | 0/20% | 0/20% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| National Security | Not listed: National Security, Mar 20 hearing | Not listed: National Security, Apr 15 hearing | Settled no: National Security, Apr 19 episode | Settled no: National Security, Jul 26 episode | 0/20% | 0/20% | – |
| Budget | Settled yes: Budget, Mar 20 hearing | Not listed: Budget, Apr 15 hearing | Not listed: Budget, Apr 19 episode | Not listed: Budget, Jul 26 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| China | Settled yes: China, Mar 20 hearing | Not listed: China, Apr 15 hearing | Not listed: China, Apr 19 episode | Not listed: China, Jul 26 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Fraud / Waste | Settled yes: Fraud / Waste, Mar 20 hearing | Not listed: Fraud / Waste, Apr 15 hearing | Not listed: Fraud / Waste, Apr 19 episode | Not listed: Fraud / Waste, Jul 26 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Geneva | Settled yes: Geneva, Mar 20 hearing | Not listed: Geneva, Apr 15 hearing | Not listed: Geneva, Apr 19 episode | Not listed: Geneva, Jul 26 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Guterres / Secretary General | Settled yes: Guterres / Secretary General, Mar 20 hearing | Not listed: Guterres / Secretary General, Apr 15 hearing | Not listed: Guterres / Secretary General, Apr 19 episode | Not listed: Guterres / Secretary General, Jul 26 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Yemen / Houthi | Not listed: Yemen / Houthi, Mar 20 hearing | Not listed: Yemen / Houthi, Apr 15 hearing | Not listed: Yemen / Houthi, Apr 19 episode | Settled yes: Yemen / Houthi, Jul 26 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | – |
| Iran5+ times | Not listed: Iran (5+ times), Mar 20 hearing | Not listed: Iran (5+ times), Apr 15 hearing | Not listed: Iran (5+ times), Apr 19 episode | Settled yes: Iran (5+ times), Jul 26 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Mar 20 hearing | Settled yes: Iran / Iranian, Apr 15 hearing | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Apr 19 episode | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Jul 26 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Marco / Rubio | Not listed: Marco / Rubio, Mar 20 hearing | Settled yes: Marco / Rubio, Apr 15 hearing | Not listed: Marco / Rubio, Apr 19 episode | Not listed: Marco / Rubio, Jul 26 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Oil | Settled yes: Oil, Mar 20 hearing | Not listed: Oil, Apr 15 hearing | Not listed: Oil, Apr 19 episode | Not listed: Oil, Jul 26 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Russia / Russian | Not listed: Russia / Russian, Mar 20 hearing | Settled yes: Russia / Russian, Apr 15 hearing | Not listed: Russia / Russian, Apr 19 episode | Not listed: Russia / Russian, Jul 26 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Ukraine | Settled yes: Ukraine, Mar 20 hearing | Not listed: Ukraine, Apr 15 hearing | Not listed: Ukraine, Apr 19 episode | Not listed: Ukraine, Jul 26 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Venezuela | Settled yes: Venezuela, Mar 20 hearing | Not listed: Venezuela, Apr 15 hearing | Not listed: Venezuela, Apr 19 episode | Not listed: Venezuela, Jul 26 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Accountable / Accountability | Not listed: Accountable / Accountability, Mar 20 hearing | Settled no: Accountable / Accountability, Apr 15 hearing | Not listed: Accountable / Accountability, Apr 19 episode | Not listed: Accountable / Accountability, Jul 26 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Biden | Not listed: Biden, Mar 20 hearing | Settled no: Biden, Apr 15 hearing | Not listed: Biden, Apr 19 episode | Not listed: Biden, Jul 26 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Biden / Obama | Not listed: Biden / Obama, Mar 20 hearing | Not listed: Biden / Obama, Apr 15 hearing | Settled no: Biden / Obama, Apr 19 episode | Not listed: Biden / Obama, Jul 26 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Woke / DEI | Settled no: Woke / DEI, Mar 20 hearing | Not listed: Woke / DEI, Apr 15 hearing | Not listed: Woke / DEI, Apr 19 episode | Not listed: Woke / DEI, Jul 26 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Signal | Settled no: Signal, Mar 20 hearing | Not listed: Signal, Apr 15 hearing | Not listed: Signal, Apr 19 episode | Not listed: Signal, Jul 26 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Tariff | Not listed: Tariff, Mar 20 hearing | Not listed: Tariff, Apr 15 hearing | Not listed: Tariff, Apr 19 episode | Settled no: Tariff, Jul 26 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 4Settled results come from the venues. Our own transcript counts appear here once transcripts arrive for these appearances. How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 26, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will Mike Waltz say during Meet the Press? | no transcript | 14 | 6 yes · 8 no | – |
| Apr 19, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will Mike Waltz say during Meet the Press? | no transcript | 13 | 5 yes · 8 no | – |
| Apr 15, 2026 | HearingWhat will Mike Waltz say during the hearing on reforming the UN? | no transcript | 14 | 8 yes · 6 no | – |
| Mar 20, 2026 | HearingWhat will Mike Waltz say during the UN Oversight Field Hearing? | no transcript | 18 | 11 yes · 7 no | – |
Citeparrot.markets, “Mike Waltz: mention market word history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/mike-waltz (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/mike-waltz · words: /api/v1/history?entity=mike-waltz · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP