Joe Manchin

Politics · CongressPersonUS CongressMachine-attributedUpdated Oct 23, 2026, 23:20 UTC

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As of Oct 23, 2026, Kalshi has settled 21 word markets on Joe Manchin’s appearances since 2026, on 19 different words.

History Wall

1–19 of 19, most settled first

Joe Manchin: every word with settled markets, most settled first

Word	Mar 14interview	Aug 23latest	Last 2	Settled	Probability
Democrat	YSettled yes: Democrat, Mar 14 interview	2 times: Democrat, Aug 23 episode, counts as said	2/2100%	2/2100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Trump	YSettled yes: Trump, Mar 14 interview	1 time: Trump, Aug 23 episode, counts as said	2/2100%	2/2100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Filibuster	YSettled yes: Filibuster, Mar 14 interview	–Not listed: Filibuster, Aug 23 episode	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	–Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Mar 14 interview	0 times: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Aug 23 episode (our count 0 (needs 1) · the market settled yes)	0/10%	1/1100%	–
Iran	YSettled yes: Iran, Mar 14 interview	–Not listed: Iran, Aug 23 episode	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Socialism / Socialist	–Not listed: Socialism / Socialist, Mar 14 interview	1 time: Socialism / Socialist, Aug 23 episode, counts as said	1/1100%	1/1100%	–
2028 / Campaign	–Not listed: 2028 / Campaign, Mar 14 interview	0 times: 2028 / Campaign, Aug 23 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–
Afford / Affordability / Affordable	–Not listed: Afford / Affordability / Affordable, Mar 14 interview	0 times: Afford / Affordability / Affordable, Aug 23 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–
AI / Artificial Intelligence	–Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Mar 14 interview	0 times: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Aug 23 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–
Biden	NSettled no: Biden, Mar 14 interview	–Not listed: Biden, Aug 23 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Bipartisan / Partisan	–Not listed: Bipartisan / Partisan, Mar 14 interview	0 times: Bipartisan / Partisan, Aug 23 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–
Election	–Not listed: Election, Mar 14 interview	0 times: Election, Aug 23 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–
Epstein	NSettled no: Epstein, Mar 14 interview	–Not listed: Epstein, Aug 23 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Fraud	NSettled no: Fraud, Mar 14 interview	–Not listed: Fraud, Aug 23 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Hormuz	NSettled no: Hormuz, Mar 14 interview	–Not listed: Hormuz, Aug 23 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Iran / Iranian	–Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Mar 14 interview	0 times: Iran / Iranian, Aug 23 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–
Oil	NSettled no: Oil, Mar 14 interview	–Not listed: Oil, Aug 23 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
SAVE Act / SAVE America	NSettled no: SAVE Act / SAVE America, Mar 14 interview	–Not listed: SAVE Act / SAVE America, Aug 23 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Tariff	–Not listed: Tariff, Mar 14 interview	0 times: Tariff, Aug 23 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–

• Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
• N: settled no
• not listed
• probability next time, with n
• Select a word or a cell for its quotes

What the columns mean

Last N

of the appearances shown, how many counted as said

Settled

every settled market of the word: said / listed

Probability

the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history

Citeparrot.markets, “Joe Manchin: mention market word history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/joe-manchin (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/joe-manchin · words: /api/v1/history?entity=joe-manchin · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP