JD Vance
As of Oct 24, 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket have settled 2,280 word markets on JD Vance’s appearances since 2024, on 505 different words; most reliably said: “Democrat” (45 of 56). Next: Rally, Oct 26, 2026 (27 words listed).
Next: Rally ·
27 words listed · Occasion page
Who counts: Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi| Word | Sep 18rally | Sep 21rally | Sep 30rally | Oct 1rally | Oct 5rally | Oct 9rally | Oct 15rally | Oct 19latest | Last 8 | Settled | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | Settled yes: Democrat, Sep 18 rally | Settled yes: Democrat, Sep 21 rally | Settled yes: Democrat, Sep 30 rally | Settled yes: Democrat, Oct 1 rally | Settled yes: Democrat, Oct 5 rally | Settled yes: Democrat, Oct 9 rally | Settled yes: Democrat, Oct 15 rally | Settled yes: Democrat, Oct 19 rally | 8/8100% | 45/5680% | 84%n=56 from settlement history | 80¢ Kalshi |
| Election | Settled yes: Election, Sep 18 rally | Settled yes: Election, Sep 21 rally | Settled yes: Election, Sep 30 rally | Settled yes: Election, Oct 1 rally | Settled yes: Election, Oct 5 rally | Settled yes: Election, Oct 9 rally | Settled yes: Election, Oct 15 rally | Settled yes: Election, Oct 19 rally | 8/8100% | 27/4363% | 78%n=43 from settlement history | 80¢ Kalshi |
| 2028 / Campaign | Settled yes: 2028 / Campaign, Sep 18 rally | Settled yes: 2028 / Campaign, Sep 21 rally | Settled yes: 2028 / Campaign, Sep 30 rally | Settled yes: 2028 / Campaign, Oct 1 rally | Settled yes: 2028 / Campaign, Oct 5 rally | Settled yes: 2028 / Campaign, Oct 9 rally | Settled yes: 2028 / Campaign, Oct 15 rally | Settled yes: 2028 / Campaign, Oct 19 rally | 8/8100% | 18/3256% | 72%n=32 from settlement history | 60¢ Kalshi |
| Biden | Settled yes: Biden, Sep 18 rally | Settled yes: Biden, Sep 21 rally | Settled yes: Biden, Sep 30 rally | Settled yes: Biden, Oct 1 rally | Settled yes: Biden, Oct 5 rally | Settled yes: Biden, Oct 9 rally | Settled no: Biden, Oct 15 rally | Settled yes: Biden, Oct 19 rally | 7/888% | 50/7368% | 67%n=73 from settlement history | 72¢ Kalshi |
| Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime | Settled yes: Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime, Sep 18 rally | Settled yes: Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime, Sep 21 rally | Settled yes: Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime, Sep 30 rally | Settled yes: Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime, Oct 1 rally | Settled no: Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime, Oct 5 rally | Settled yes: Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime, Oct 9 rally | Settled no: Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime, Oct 15 rally | Settled yes: Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime, Oct 19 rally | 6/875% | 16/2080% | 66%n=20 from settlement history | 68¢ Kalshi |
| Illegal Alien | Settled yes: Illegal Alien, Sep 18 rally | Settled yes: Illegal Alien, Sep 21 rally | Settled yes: Illegal Alien, Sep 30 rally | Settled yes: Illegal Alien, Oct 1 rally | Settled yes: Illegal Alien, Oct 5 rally | Settled no: Illegal Alien, Oct 9 rally | Settled no: Illegal Alien, Oct 15 rally | Settled yes: Illegal Alien, Oct 19 rally | 6/875% | 32/4965% | 61%n=49 from settlement history | 38¢ Kalshi |
| Social Security | Not listed: Social Security, Sep 18 rally | Settled yes: Social Security, Sep 21 rally | Settled yes: Social Security, Sep 30 rally | Settled yes: Social Security, Oct 1 rally | Settled no: Social Security, Oct 5 rally | Settled yes: Social Security, Oct 9 rally | Settled no: Social Security, Oct 15 rally | Settled yes: Social Security, Oct 19 rally | 5/771% | 6/967% | 60%n=9 from settlement history | 55¢ Kalshi |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Settled yes: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Sep 18 rally | Settled yes: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Sep 21 rally | Settled no: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Sep 30 rally | Settled no: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Oct 1 rally | Settled no: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Oct 5 rally | Settled yes: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Oct 9 rally | Settled yes: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Oct 15 rally | Settled yes: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Oct 19 rally | 5/862% | 29/5355% | 58%n=53 from settlement history | 57¢ Kalshi |
| Fraud | Not listed: Fraud, Sep 18 rally | Not listed: Fraud, Sep 21 rally | Settled no: Fraud, Sep 30 rally | Settled yes: Fraud, Oct 1 rally | Settled no: Fraud, Oct 5 rally | Settled yes: Fraud, Oct 9 rally | Settled yes: Fraud, Oct 15 rally | Settled no: Fraud, Oct 19 rally | 3/650% | 30/5159% | 57%n=51 from settlement history | 54¢ Kalshi |
| Border | Not listed: Border, Sep 18 rally | Not listed: Border, Sep 21 rally | Settled yes: Border, Sep 30 rally | Not listed: Border, Oct 1 rally | Not listed: Border, Oct 5 rally | Settled yes: Border, Oct 9 rally | Settled no: Border, Oct 15 rally | Settled yes: Border, Oct 19 rally | 3/475% | 11/2152% | 54%n=21 from settlement history | 72¢ Kalshi |
| Steel | Not listed: Steel, Sep 18 rally | Not listed: Steel, Sep 21 rally | Not listed: Steel, Sep 30 rally | Not listed: Steel, Oct 1 rally | Not listed: Steel, Oct 5 rally | Settled yes: Steel, Oct 9 rally | Settled yes: Steel, Oct 15 rally | Settled no: Steel, Oct 19 rally | 2/367% | 4/757% | 52%n=7 from settlement history | 33¢ Kalshi |
| Economy / Economic | Settled no: Economy / Economic, Sep 18 rally | Settled yes: Economy / Economic, Sep 21 rally | Settled yes: Economy / Economic, Sep 30 rally | Settled yes: Economy / Economic, Oct 1 rally | Settled yes: Economy / Economic, Oct 5 rally | Settled yes: Economy / Economic, Oct 9 rally | Settled no: Economy / Economic, Oct 15 rally | Settled no: Economy / Economic, Oct 19 rally | 5/862% | 8/1844% | 47%n=18 from settlement history | 60¢ Kalshi |
| Farm / Farmernew | Not listed: Farm / Farmer, Sep 18 rally | Not listed: Farm / Farmer, Sep 21 rally | Not listed: Farm / Farmer, Sep 30 rally | Not listed: Farm / Farmer, Oct 1 rally | Not listed: Farm / Farmer, Oct 5 rally | Not listed: Farm / Farmer, Oct 9 rally | Not listed: Farm / Farmer, Oct 15 rally | Not listed: Farm / Farmer, Oct 19 rally | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 78¢ Kalshi |
| Fertilizernew | Not listed: Fertilizer, Sep 18 rally | Not listed: Fertilizer, Sep 21 rally | Not listed: Fertilizer, Sep 30 rally | Not listed: Fertilizer, Oct 1 rally | Not listed: Fertilizer, Oct 5 rally | Not listed: Fertilizer, Oct 9 rally | Not listed: Fertilizer, Oct 15 rally | Not listed: Fertilizer, Oct 19 rally | – | – | –new new word, no probability yet | 44¢ Kalshi |
| Working Class / Middle Class | Settled yes: Working Class / Middle Class, Sep 18 rally | Settled yes: Working Class / Middle Class, Sep 21 rally | Settled yes: Working Class / Middle Class, Sep 30 rally | Settled yes: Working Class / Middle Class, Oct 1 rally | Settled no: Working Class / Middle Class, Oct 5 rally | Settled no: Working Class / Middle Class, Oct 9 rally | Settled yes: Working Class / Middle Class, Oct 15 rally | Settled no: Working Class / Middle Class, Oct 19 rally | 5/862% | 9/2733% | 44%n=27 from settlement history | 44¢ Kalshi |
| Healthcare | Not listed: Healthcare, Sep 18 rally | Settled yes: Healthcare, Sep 21 rally | Settled no: Healthcare, Sep 30 rally | Settled yes: Healthcare, Oct 1 rally | Settled no: Healthcare, Oct 5 rally | Settled no: Healthcare, Oct 9 rally | Settled no: Healthcare, Oct 15 rally | Settled yes: Healthcare, Oct 19 rally | 3/743% | 19/4245% | 44%n=42 from settlement history | 48¢ Kalshi |
| Inflation | Settled no: Inflation, Sep 18 rally | Settled no: Inflation, Sep 21 rally | Settled yes: Inflation, Sep 30 rally | Settled yes: Inflation, Oct 1 rally | Settled no: Inflation, Oct 5 rally | Settled yes: Inflation, Oct 9 rally | Settled no: Inflation, Oct 15 rally | Settled no: Inflation, Oct 19 rally | 3/838% | 17/2861% | 43%n=28 from settlement history | 34¢ Kalshi |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Settled no: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Sep 18 rally | Settled no: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Sep 21 rally | Settled no: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Sep 30 rally | Settled no: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Oct 1 rally | Settled yes: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Oct 5 rally | Settled no: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Oct 9 rally | Settled no: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Oct 15 rally | Settled yes: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Oct 19 rally | 2/825% | 15/3642% | 38%n=36 from settlement history | 44¢ Kalshi |
| American Dream | Settled no: American Dream, Sep 18 rally | Settled yes: American Dream, Sep 21 rally | Settled no: American Dream, Sep 30 rally | Settled no: American Dream, Oct 1 rally | Settled no: American Dream, Oct 5 rally | Settled yes: American Dream, Oct 9 rally | Settled no: American Dream, Oct 15 rally | Settled no: American Dream, Oct 19 rally | 2/825% | 20/4050% | 32%n=40 from settlement history | 28¢ Kalshi |
| Manufacture / Manufacturing | Settled no: Manufacture / Manufacturing, Sep 18 rally | Settled no: Manufacture / Manufacturing, Sep 21 rally | Settled yes: Manufacture / Manufacturing, Sep 30 rally | Settled no: Manufacture / Manufacturing, Oct 1 rally | Settled no: Manufacture / Manufacturing, Oct 5 rally | Settled yes: Manufacture / Manufacturing, Oct 9 rally | Settled no: Manufacture / Manufacturing, Oct 15 rally | Settled no: Manufacture / Manufacturing, Oct 19 rally | 2/825% | 2/825% | 31%n=8 from settlement history | 62¢ Kalshi |
| China / Chinese | Settled yes: China / Chinese, Sep 18 rally | Settled no: China / Chinese, Sep 21 rally | Settled no: China / Chinese, Sep 30 rally | Settled no: China / Chinese, Oct 1 rally | Settled no: China / Chinese, Oct 5 rally | Settled no: China / Chinese, Oct 9 rally | Settled no: China / Chinese, Oct 15 rally | Settled no: China / Chinese, Oct 19 rally | 1/812% | 11/2642% | 29%n=26 from settlement history | 18¢ Kalshi |
| Radical Left | Settled no: Radical Left, Sep 18 rally | Settled yes: Radical Left, Sep 21 rally | Settled yes: Radical Left, Sep 30 rally | Settled yes: Radical Left, Oct 1 rally | Settled no: Radical Left, Oct 5 rally | Settled no: Radical Left, Oct 9 rally | Settled no: Radical Left, Oct 15 rally | Settled no: Radical Left, Oct 19 rally | 3/838% | 3/368% | 27%n=36 from settlement history | 40¢ Kalshi |
| Tariff | Not listed: Tariff, Sep 18 rally | Settled no: Tariff, Sep 21 rally | Settled no: Tariff, Sep 30 rally | Settled no: Tariff, Oct 1 rally | Settled no: Tariff, Oct 5 rally | Settled yes: Tariff, Oct 9 rally | Settled no: Tariff, Oct 15 rally | Settled no: Tariff, Oct 19 rally | 1/714% | 12/4030% | 27%n=40 from settlement history | 19¢ Kalshi |
| Small Business | Settled no: Small Business, Sep 18 rally | Settled no: Small Business, Sep 21 rally | Not listed: Small Business, Sep 30 rally | Not listed: Small Business, Oct 1 rally | Not listed: Small Business, Oct 5 rally | Settled no: Small Business, Oct 9 rally | Settled no: Small Business, Oct 15 rally | Settled no: Small Business, Oct 19 rally | 0/50% | 3/1127% | 24%n=11 from settlement history | 18¢ Kalshi |
| America First | Settled no: America First, Sep 18 rally | Settled yes: America First, Sep 21 rally | Settled no: America First, Sep 30 rally | Settled no: America First, Oct 1 rally | Settled no: America First, Oct 5 rally | Settled yes: America First, Oct 9 rally | Settled no: America First, Oct 15 rally | Settled no: America First, Oct 19 rally | 2/825% | 7/5213% | 22%n=52 from settlement history | 19¢ Kalshi |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Settled no: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Sep 18 rally | Settled no: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Sep 21 rally | Settled no: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Sep 30 rally | Settled no: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Oct 1 rally | Settled no: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Oct 5 rally | Settled no: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Oct 9 rally | Settled no: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Oct 15 rally | Settled no: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Oct 19 rally | 0/80% | 10/6017% | 18%n=60 from settlement history | 14¢ Kalshi |
| Made in America / American Made | Settled no: Made in America / American Made, Sep 18 rally | Settled no: Made in America / American Made, Sep 21 rally | Settled no: Made in America / American Made, Sep 30 rally | Settled no: Made in America / American Made, Oct 1 rally | Settled no: Made in America / American Made, Oct 5 rally | Settled no: Made in America / American Made, Oct 9 rally | Settled no: Made in America / American Made, Oct 15 rally | Settled no: Made in America / American Made, Oct 19 rally | 0/80% | 1/176% | 12%n=17 from settlement history | 8¢ Kalshi |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 23, 2026 13:39 UTC.
Every word
1–40 of 546, most settled first · page 1 of 7| Word | Sep 30rally | Oct 1rally | Oct 1interview | Oct 5rally | Oct 9rally | Oct 15rally | Oct 17interview | Oct 19rally | Oct 20remarks | Oct 21latest | Last 10 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel / Israeli | Not listed: Israel / Israeli, Sep 30 rally | Not listed: Israel / Israeli, Oct 1 rally | Settled no: Israel / Israeli, Oct 1 interview | Not listed: Israel / Israeli, Oct 5 rally | Not listed: Israel / Israeli, Oct 9 rally | Not listed: Israel / Israeli, Oct 15 rally | Settled no: Israel / Israeli, Oct 17 interview | Not listed: Israel / Israeli, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Israel / Israeli, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: Israel / Israeli, Oct 21 conference | 0/20% | 7/3719% | 24%n=37 from settlement history |
| Terrorist / Terrorism | Not listed: Terrorist / Terrorism, Sep 30 rally | Not listed: Terrorist / Terrorism, Oct 1 rally | Settled no: Terrorist / Terrorism, Oct 1 interview | Not listed: Terrorist / Terrorism, Oct 5 rally | Not listed: Terrorist / Terrorism, Oct 9 rally | Not listed: Terrorist / Terrorism, Oct 15 rally | Not listed: Terrorist / Terrorism, Oct 17 interview | Not listed: Terrorist / Terrorism, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Terrorist / Terrorism, Oct 20 remarks | Settled no: Terrorist / Terrorism, Oct 21 conference | 0/20% | 16/3644% | 44%n=36 from settlement history |
| California | Not listed: California, Sep 30 rally | Settled no: California, Oct 1 rally | Not listed: California, Oct 1 interview | Not listed: California, Oct 5 rally | Not listed: California, Oct 9 rally | Not listed: California, Oct 15 rally | Not listed: California, Oct 17 interview | Not listed: California, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: California, Oct 20 remarks | Settled yes: California, Oct 21 conference | 1/250% | 12/2450% | 50%n=24 from settlement history |
| Somali / Somalia / Somalian | Not listed: Somali / Somalia / Somalian, Sep 30 rally | Not listed: Somali / Somalia / Somalian, Oct 1 rally | Not listed: Somali / Somalia / Somalian, Oct 1 interview | Not listed: Somali / Somalia / Somalian, Oct 5 rally | Not listed: Somali / Somalia / Somalian, Oct 9 rally | Not listed: Somali / Somalia / Somalian, Oct 15 rally | Not listed: Somali / Somalia / Somalian, Oct 17 interview | Not listed: Somali / Somalia / Somalian, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Somali / Somalia / Somalian, Oct 20 remarks | Settled no: Somali / Somalia / Somalian, Oct 21 conference | 0/10% | 12/2450% | 38%n=24 from settlement history |
| Manufacturing | Not listed: Manufacturing, Sep 30 rally | Not listed: Manufacturing, Oct 1 rally | Not listed: Manufacturing, Oct 1 interview | Not listed: Manufacturing, Oct 5 rally | Not listed: Manufacturing, Oct 9 rally | Not listed: Manufacturing, Oct 15 rally | Not listed: Manufacturing, Oct 17 interview | Not listed: Manufacturing, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Manufacturing, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: Manufacturing, Oct 21 conference | – | 14/2361% | 56%n=23 from settlement history |
| ID / Identification | Settled no: ID / Identification, Sep 30 rally | Settled no: ID / Identification, Oct 1 rally | Not listed: ID / Identification, Oct 1 interview | Not listed: ID / Identification, Oct 5 rally | Not listed: ID / Identification, Oct 9 rally | Not listed: ID / Identification, Oct 15 rally | Not listed: ID / Identification, Oct 17 interview | Settled no: ID / Identification, Oct 19 rally | Settled no: ID / Identification, Oct 20 remarks | Settled no: ID / Identification, Oct 21 conference | 0/50% | 3/2015% | 24%n=20 from settlement history |
| Trump3+ times | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Sep 30 rally | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Oct 1 rally | Settled yes: Trump (3+ times), Oct 1 interview | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Oct 5 rally | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Oct 9 rally | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Oct 15 rally | Settled yes: Trump (3+ times), Oct 17 interview | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Oct 19 rally | Settled no: Trump (3+ times), Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Oct 21 conference | 2/367% | 12/1963% | 51%n=19 from settlement history |
| Fake News | Settled no: Fake News, Sep 30 rally | Settled yes: Fake News, Oct 1 rally | Not listed: Fake News, Oct 1 interview | Settled no: Fake News, Oct 5 rally | Settled no: Fake News, Oct 9 rally | Settled no: Fake News, Oct 15 rally | Not listed: Fake News, Oct 17 interview | Settled no: Fake News, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Fake News, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: Fake News, Oct 21 conference | 1/617% | 4/1822% | 29%n=18 from settlement history |
| Minnesota / Minneapolis | Not listed: Minnesota / Minneapolis, Sep 30 rally | Not listed: Minnesota / Minneapolis, Oct 1 rally | Not listed: Minnesota / Minneapolis, Oct 1 interview | Not listed: Minnesota / Minneapolis, Oct 5 rally | Not listed: Minnesota / Minneapolis, Oct 9 rally | Not listed: Minnesota / Minneapolis, Oct 15 rally | Not listed: Minnesota / Minneapolis, Oct 17 interview | Not listed: Minnesota / Minneapolis, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Minnesota / Minneapolis, Oct 20 remarks | Settled no: Minnesota / Minneapolis, Oct 21 conference | 0/10% | 10/1759% | 47%n=17 from settlement history |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Sep 30 rally | Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Oct 1 rally | Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Oct 1 interview | Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Oct 5 rally | Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Oct 9 rally | Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Oct 15 rally | Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Oct 17 interview | Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Oct 21 conference | – | 3/1718% | 18%n=17 from settlement history |
| Iran / Iranian | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Sep 30 rally | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Oct 1 rally | Settled no: Iran / Iranian, Oct 1 interview | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Oct 5 rally | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Oct 9 rally | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Oct 15 rally | Settled yes: Iran / Iranian, Oct 17 interview | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Oct 20 remarks | Settled no: Iran / Iranian, Oct 21 conference | 1/333% | 10/1662% | 53%n=16 from settlement history |
| Nuclear | Not listed: Nuclear, Sep 30 rally | Not listed: Nuclear, Oct 1 rally | Not listed: Nuclear, Oct 1 interview | Not listed: Nuclear, Oct 5 rally | Not listed: Nuclear, Oct 9 rally | Not listed: Nuclear, Oct 15 rally | Not listed: Nuclear, Oct 17 interview | Not listed: Nuclear, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Nuclear, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: Nuclear, Oct 21 conference | – | 10/1662% | 61%n=16 from settlement history |
| China | Not listed: China, Sep 30 rally | Not listed: China, Oct 1 rally | Not listed: China, Oct 1 interview | Not listed: China, Oct 5 rally | Not listed: China, Oct 9 rally | Not listed: China, Oct 15 rally | Not listed: China, Oct 17 interview | Not listed: China, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: China, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: China, Oct 21 conference | – | 7/1644% | 44%n=16 from settlement history |
| Iran | Not listed: Iran, Sep 30 rally | Not listed: Iran, Oct 1 rally | Not listed: Iran, Oct 1 interview | Not listed: Iran, Oct 5 rally | Not listed: Iran, Oct 9 rally | Not listed: Iran, Oct 15 rally | Not listed: Iran, Oct 17 interview | Not listed: Iran, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Iran, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: Iran, Oct 21 conference | – | 8/1553% | 52%n=15 from settlement history |
| Hormuz | Not listed: Hormuz, Sep 30 rally | Not listed: Hormuz, Oct 1 rally | Not listed: Hormuz, Oct 1 interview | Not listed: Hormuz, Oct 5 rally | Not listed: Hormuz, Oct 9 rally | Not listed: Hormuz, Oct 15 rally | Not listed: Hormuz, Oct 17 interview | Not listed: Hormuz, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Hormuz, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: Hormuz, Oct 21 conference | – | 6/1540% | 46%n=15 from settlement history |
| Crypto / Bitcoinnever said | Not listed: Crypto / Bitcoin, Sep 30 rally | Not listed: Crypto / Bitcoin, Oct 1 rally | Not listed: Crypto / Bitcoin, Oct 1 interview | Not listed: Crypto / Bitcoin, Oct 5 rally | Not listed: Crypto / Bitcoin, Oct 9 rally | Not listed: Crypto / Bitcoin, Oct 15 rally | Not listed: Crypto / Bitcoin, Oct 17 interview | Not listed: Crypto / Bitcoin, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Crypto / Bitcoin, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: Crypto / Bitcoin, Oct 21 conference | – | 0/150% | 16%n=15 from settlement history |
| Medicare / Medicaid | Not listed: Medicare / Medicaid, Sep 30 rally | Not listed: Medicare / Medicaid, Oct 1 rally | Settled yes: Medicare / Medicaid, Oct 1 interview | Not listed: Medicare / Medicaid, Oct 5 rally | Not listed: Medicare / Medicaid, Oct 9 rally | Not listed: Medicare / Medicaid, Oct 15 rally | Settled no: Medicare / Medicaid, Oct 17 interview | Not listed: Medicare / Medicaid, Oct 19 rally | Settled no: Medicare / Medicaid, Oct 20 remarks | Settled no: Medicare / Medicaid, Oct 21 conference | 1/425% | 8/1457% | 48%n=14 from settlement history |
| Ass | Not listed: Ass, Sep 30 rally | Not listed: Ass, Oct 1 rally | Not listed: Ass, Oct 1 interview | Not listed: Ass, Oct 5 rally | Not listed: Ass, Oct 9 rally | Not listed: Ass, Oct 15 rally | Not listed: Ass, Oct 17 interview | Not listed: Ass, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Ass, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: Ass, Oct 21 conference | – | 5/1338% | 37%n=13 from settlement history |
| Usha | Not listed: Usha, Sep 30 rally | Not listed: Usha, Oct 1 rally | Not listed: Usha, Oct 1 interview | Not listed: Usha, Oct 5 rally | Not listed: Usha, Oct 9 rally | Not listed: Usha, Oct 15 rally | Not listed: Usha, Oct 17 interview | Not listed: Usha, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Usha, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: Usha, Oct 21 conference | – | 5/1338% | 34%n=13 from settlement history |
| Ceasefire | Not listed: Ceasefire, Sep 30 rally | Not listed: Ceasefire, Oct 1 rally | Settled no: Ceasefire, Oct 1 interview | Not listed: Ceasefire, Oct 5 rally | Not listed: Ceasefire, Oct 9 rally | Not listed: Ceasefire, Oct 15 rally | Settled no: Ceasefire, Oct 17 interview | Not listed: Ceasefire, Oct 19 rally | Settled no: Ceasefire, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: Ceasefire, Oct 21 conference | 0/30% | 2/1217% | 23%n=12 from settlement history |
| Affordable / Affordability | Not listed: Affordable / Affordability, Sep 30 rally | Not listed: Affordable / Affordability, Oct 1 rally | Not listed: Affordable / Affordability, Oct 1 interview | Not listed: Affordable / Affordability, Oct 5 rally | Not listed: Affordable / Affordability, Oct 9 rally | Not listed: Affordable / Affordability, Oct 15 rally | Not listed: Affordable / Affordability, Oct 17 interview | Not listed: Affordable / Affordability, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Affordable / Affordability, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: Affordable / Affordability, Oct 21 conference | – | 6/1060% | 54%n=10 from settlement history |
| Oil | Not listed: Oil, Sep 30 rally | Not listed: Oil, Oct 1 rally | Not listed: Oil, Oct 1 interview | Not listed: Oil, Oct 5 rally | Not listed: Oil, Oct 9 rally | Not listed: Oil, Oct 15 rally | Not listed: Oil, Oct 17 interview | Not listed: Oil, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Oil, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: Oil, Oct 21 conference | – | 4/944% | 42%n=9 from settlement history |
| Food Stamp / SNAP | Not listed: Food Stamp / SNAP, Sep 30 rally | Settled no: Food Stamp / SNAP, Oct 1 rally | Not listed: Food Stamp / SNAP, Oct 1 interview | Not listed: Food Stamp / SNAP, Oct 5 rally | Not listed: Food Stamp / SNAP, Oct 9 rally | Not listed: Food Stamp / SNAP, Oct 15 rally | Not listed: Food Stamp / SNAP, Oct 17 interview | Not listed: Food Stamp / SNAP, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Food Stamp / SNAP, Oct 20 remarks | Settled yes: Food Stamp / SNAP, Oct 21 conference | 1/250% | 2/922% | 40%n=9 from settlement history |
| Epic Fury | Not listed: Epic Fury, Sep 30 rally | Not listed: Epic Fury, Oct 1 rally | Not listed: Epic Fury, Oct 1 interview | Not listed: Epic Fury, Oct 5 rally | Not listed: Epic Fury, Oct 9 rally | Not listed: Epic Fury, Oct 15 rally | Not listed: Epic Fury, Oct 17 interview | Not listed: Epic Fury, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Epic Fury, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: Epic Fury, Oct 21 conference | – | 1/911% | 32%n=9 from settlement history |
| God3+ times | Not listed: God 3+ times, Sep 30 rally | Not listed: God 3+ times, Oct 1 rally | Not listed: God 3+ times, Oct 1 interview | Not listed: God 3+ times, Oct 5 rally | Not listed: God 3+ times, Oct 9 rally | Not listed: God 3+ times, Oct 15 rally | Not listed: God 3+ times, Oct 17 interview | Not listed: God 3+ times, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: God 3+ times, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: God 3+ times, Oct 21 conference | – | 7/888% | 55%n=8 from settlement history |
| Investment / Invested | Not listed: Investment / Invested, Sep 30 rally | Not listed: Investment / Invested, Oct 1 rally | Not listed: Investment / Invested, Oct 1 interview | Not listed: Investment / Invested, Oct 5 rally | Not listed: Investment / Invested, Oct 9 rally | Not listed: Investment / Invested, Oct 15 rally | Not listed: Investment / Invested, Oct 17 interview | Not listed: Investment / Invested, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Investment / Invested, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: Investment / Invested, Oct 21 conference | – | 6/875% | 62%n=8 from settlement history |
| Israel | Not listed: Israel, Sep 30 rally | Not listed: Israel, Oct 1 rally | Not listed: Israel, Oct 1 interview | Not listed: Israel, Oct 5 rally | Not listed: Israel, Oct 9 rally | Not listed: Israel, Oct 15 rally | Not listed: Israel, Oct 17 interview | Not listed: Israel, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Israel, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: Israel, Oct 21 conference | – | 2/825% | 33%n=8 from settlement history |
| Stock Marketnever said | Not listed: Stock Market, Sep 30 rally | Not listed: Stock Market, Oct 1 rally | Not listed: Stock Market, Oct 1 interview | Not listed: Stock Market, Oct 5 rally | Not listed: Stock Market, Oct 9 rally | Not listed: Stock Market, Oct 15 rally | Not listed: Stock Market, Oct 17 interview | Not listed: Stock Market, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Stock Market, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: Stock Market, Oct 21 conference | – | 0/80% | 19%n=8 from settlement history |
| Economy | Not listed: Economy, Sep 30 rally | Not listed: Economy, Oct 1 rally | Not listed: Economy, Oct 1 interview | Not listed: Economy, Oct 5 rally | Not listed: Economy, Oct 9 rally | Not listed: Economy, Oct 15 rally | Not listed: Economy, Oct 17 interview | Not listed: Economy, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Economy, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: Economy, Oct 21 conference | – | 3/743% | 39%n=7 from settlement history |
| Marco / Rubio | Not listed: Marco / Rubio, Sep 30 rally | Not listed: Marco / Rubio, Oct 1 rally | Not listed: Marco / Rubio, Oct 1 interview | Not listed: Marco / Rubio, Oct 5 rally | Not listed: Marco / Rubio, Oct 9 rally | Not listed: Marco / Rubio, Oct 15 rally | Not listed: Marco / Rubio, Oct 17 interview | Not listed: Marco / Rubio, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Marco / Rubio, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: Marco / Rubio, Oct 21 conference | – | 3/743% | 50%n=7 from settlement history |
| Political Violence | Not listed: Political Violence, Sep 30 rally | Not listed: Political Violence, Oct 1 rally | Not listed: Political Violence, Oct 1 interview | Not listed: Political Violence, Oct 5 rally | Not listed: Political Violence, Oct 9 rally | Not listed: Political Violence, Oct 15 rally | Not listed: Political Violence, Oct 17 interview | Not listed: Political Violence, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Political Violence, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: Political Violence, Oct 21 conference | – | 3/743% | 44%n=7 from settlement history |
| Fentanyl | Not listed: Fentanyl, Sep 30 rally | Not listed: Fentanyl, Oct 1 rally | Not listed: Fentanyl, Oct 1 interview | Not listed: Fentanyl, Oct 5 rally | Not listed: Fentanyl, Oct 9 rally | Not listed: Fentanyl, Oct 15 rally | Not listed: Fentanyl, Oct 17 interview | Not listed: Fentanyl, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Fentanyl, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: Fentanyl, Oct 21 conference | – | 2/729% | 39%n=7 from settlement history |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | Not listed: Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation, Sep 30 rally | Not listed: Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation, Oct 1 rally | Not listed: Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation, Oct 1 interview | Not listed: Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation, Oct 5 rally | Not listed: Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation, Oct 9 rally | Not listed: Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation, Oct 15 rally | Not listed: Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation, Oct 17 interview | Not listed: Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation, Oct 21 conference | – | 2/729% | 31%n=7 from settlement history |
| Peace | Not listed: Peace, Sep 30 rally | Not listed: Peace, Oct 1 rally | Not listed: Peace, Oct 1 interview | Not listed: Peace, Oct 5 rally | Not listed: Peace, Oct 9 rally | Not listed: Peace, Oct 15 rally | Not listed: Peace, Oct 17 interview | Not listed: Peace, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Peace, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: Peace, Oct 21 conference | – | 2/729% | 35%n=7 from settlement history |
| 250 | Not listed: 250, Sep 30 rally | Not listed: 250, Oct 1 rally | Not listed: 250, Oct 1 interview | Not listed: 250, Oct 5 rally | Not listed: 250, Oct 9 rally | Not listed: 250, Oct 15 rally | Not listed: 250, Oct 17 interview | Not listed: 250, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: 250, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: 250, Oct 21 conference | – | 1/714% | 22%n=7 from settlement history |
| Autism / Autistic | Not listed: Autism / Autistic, Sep 30 rally | Not listed: Autism / Autistic, Oct 1 rally | Not listed: Autism / Autistic, Oct 1 interview | Not listed: Autism / Autistic, Oct 5 rally | Not listed: Autism / Autistic, Oct 9 rally | Not listed: Autism / Autistic, Oct 15 rally | Not listed: Autism / Autistic, Oct 17 interview | Not listed: Autism / Autistic, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Autism / Autistic, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: Autism / Autistic, Oct 21 conference | – | 1/714% | 26%n=7 from settlement history |
| Big Beautiful Bill | Not listed: Big Beautiful Bill, Sep 30 rally | Not listed: Big Beautiful Bill, Oct 1 rally | Not listed: Big Beautiful Bill, Oct 1 interview | Not listed: Big Beautiful Bill, Oct 5 rally | Not listed: Big Beautiful Bill, Oct 9 rally | Not listed: Big Beautiful Bill, Oct 15 rally | Not listed: Big Beautiful Bill, Oct 17 interview | Not listed: Big Beautiful Bill, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Big Beautiful Bill, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: Big Beautiful Bill, Oct 21 conference | – | 1/714% | 28%n=7 from settlement history |
| Learing | Not listed: Learing, Sep 30 rally | Not listed: Learing, Oct 1 rally | Not listed: Learing, Oct 1 interview | Not listed: Learing, Oct 5 rally | Not listed: Learing, Oct 9 rally | Not listed: Learing, Oct 15 rally | Not listed: Learing, Oct 17 interview | Not listed: Learing, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Learing, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: Learing, Oct 21 conference | – | 1/714% | 24%n=7 from settlement history |
| Newsom | Not listed: Newsom, Sep 30 rally | Not listed: Newsom, Oct 1 rally | Not listed: Newsom, Oct 1 interview | Not listed: Newsom, Oct 5 rally | Not listed: Newsom, Oct 9 rally | Not listed: Newsom, Oct 15 rally | Not listed: Newsom, Oct 17 interview | Not listed: Newsom, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Newsom, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: Newsom, Oct 21 conference | – | 1/714% | 24%n=7 from settlement history |
| Deal / Settle | Not listed: Deal / Settle, Sep 30 rally | Not listed: Deal / Settle, Oct 1 rally | Not listed: Deal / Settle, Oct 1 interview | Not listed: Deal / Settle, Oct 5 rally | Not listed: Deal / Settle, Oct 9 rally | Not listed: Deal / Settle, Oct 15 rally | Not listed: Deal / Settle, Oct 17 interview | Not listed: Deal / Settle, Oct 19 rally | Not listed: Deal / Settle, Oct 20 remarks | Not listed: Deal / Settle, Oct 21 conference | – | 5/683% | 64%n=6 from settlement history |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 12Our transcript counts matched how 44 of 45 settled words resolved (97.8%). How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | Press conferenceWhat will JD Vance say during his fraud press conference? | no transcript | 26 | 6 yes · 20 no | – |
| Oct 20, 2026 | RemarksWhat will JD Vance say during his announcement? | no transcript | 18 | 4 yes · 14 no | – |
| Oct 19, 2026 | RallyWhat will JD Vance say during his rally in North Carolina? | no transcript | 28 | 11 yes · 17 no | – |
| Oct 17, 2026 | InterviewWhat will JD Vance say during his CBS Town Hall? | no transcript | 21 | 11 yes · 10 no | – |
| Oct 15, 2026 | RallyWhat will JD Vance say during his rally in Michigan? | no transcript | 31 | 8 yes · 23 no | – |
| Oct 9, 2026 | RallyWhat will JD Vance say during his rally in Ohio? | no transcript | 42 | 27 yes · 15 no | – |
| Oct 5, 2026 | RallyWhat will JD Vance say during his rally in Alaska? | no transcript | 28 | 9 yes · 19 no | – |
| Oct 1, 2026 | RallyWhat will JD Vance say during his Midterm Rally in Florida? | no transcript | 30 | 15 yes · 15 no | – |
| Oct 1, 2026 | InterviewWhat will JD Vance say during Fox News: Hannity? | no transcript | 20 | 11 yes · 9 no | – |
| Sep 30, 2026 | RallyWhat will JD Vance say during his Midterm Rally in Texas? | no transcript | 28 | 14 yes · 14 no | – |
| Sep 29, 2026 | KeynoteWhat will JD Vance say during the MAHA Summit? | no transcript | 18 | 9 yes · 9 no | – |
| Sep 21, 2026 | RallyWhat will JD Vance say during his rally in North Carolina? | no transcript | 47 | 25 yes · 22 no | – |
Citeparrot.markets, “JD Vance: mention market word history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/jd-vance · words: /api/v1/history?entity=jd-vance · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP