Accuracy

Our word counts agree with how the venues settled

97.88%

19,469 of 19,890 settled markets agree · 8 of 9 categories meet their bar · all 421 mismatches listed below

99.18%Earnings calls, of 8,512 checked
0.597p log loss vs 0.688 for a constant (lower is better)
Agreement by category agreementits barBeta: below its bar
  • Earnings99.2%, its bar 97%, 8,512 checks
  • Trump96.2%, its bar 95%, 4,156 checks
  • White House97.5%, its bar 98%, 1,917 checksBeta
  • Fed99.5%, its bar 98%, 761 checks
  • Politics94.8%, its bar 90%, 1,137 checks
  • World98.5%, its bar 98%, 407 checks
  • News97.6%, its bar 95%, 1,871 checks
  • Business97.7%, its bar 95%, 611 checks
  • Podcasts96.7%, its bar 95%, 518 checks

As of 2026-10-23 19:53 UTC · Kalshi 97.99% (14,612) · Polymarket 97.57% (5,278)

Is p calibrated? Dots on the dashed line mean p happened as often as it said. Dot area = markets.
Is p calibrated?Parrot p against how often the word was said, 10 bins of p: 0–10%: p 6.5%, said 5.6%, 1,076 markets; 10–20%: p 15.5%, said 13.5%, 2,450 markets; 20–30%: p 25.6%, said 24.3%, 4,183 markets; 30–40%: p 35.5%, said 33.3%, 7,918 markets; 40–50%: p 45.0%, said 43.6%, 8,818 markets; 50–60%: p 54.6%, said 55.6%, 7,225 markets; 60–70%: p 64.9%, said 69.3%, 4,019 markets; 70–80%: p 74.5%, said 76.5%, 2,332 markets; 80–90%: p 84.8%, said 86.1%, 1,559 markets; 90–100%: p 93.8%, said 93.6%, 731 markets.0%0%25%25%50%50%75%75%100%100%0–10%: p 6.5% on average, said 5.6% of 1,076 markets10–20%: p 15.5% on average, said 13.5% of 2,450 markets20–30%: p 25.6% on average, said 24.3% of 4,183 markets30–40%: p 35.5% on average, said 33.3% of 7,918 markets40–50%: p 45.0% on average, said 43.6% of 8,818 markets50–60%: p 54.6% on average, said 55.6% of 7,225 markets60–70%: p 64.9% on average, said 69.3% of 4,019 markets70–80%: p 74.5% on average, said 76.5% of 2,332 markets80–90%: p 84.8% on average, said 86.1% of 1,559 markets90–100%: p 93.8% on average, said 93.6% of 731 marketsParrot pShare said (settled YES)

When Parrot said 20–30% (25.6% on average), it happened 24.3% of the time (4,183 markets).

Walk-forward backtest: 40,311 markets from events since May 1, 2026, the same markets as “How good is p?”.

The numbers
Parrot pAverage pSaidMarkets
0–10%6.5%5.6%1,076
10–20%15.5%13.5%2,450
20–30%25.6%24.3%4,183
30–40%35.5%33.3%7,918
40–50%45.0%43.6%8,818
50–60%54.6%55.6%7,225
60–70%64.9%69.3%4,019
70–80%74.5%76.5%2,332
80–90%84.8%86.1%1,559
90–100%93.8%93.6%731

Where it is close

When our count sat exactly at the market's threshold, the venue settled YES 96.5% of the time (2,894 markets); one above, 97.8% (1,738).

How settlement tracks our count
Our countVenue settled YESMarkets
02.4%9,606
exactly the threshold96.5%2,894
threshold + 197.8%1,738
threshold + 2 or more99.4%5,326

Not in the table: 326 markets where our count was above 0 but below a threshold of 2 or more; 5.5% settled YES.

How good is p?

p is a base rate, not a forecast. Scored as a walk-forward backtest: each market gets the p it would have had before its event, from results settled earlier. The markets are from events since May 1, 2026; the model's settings were fitted on earlier events. The constant gives every market its category's YES rate before May 1, 2026, in All categories too. Lower Brier and log loss are better (a coin flip scores 0.250 and 0.693).

Walk-forward backtest
CategoryMarketsBrierpBrierconstantLog losspLog lossconstantCalibration gap10 bins of p
Earnings4,1330.1760.2500.5270.6932.5 pts
Trump8,9520.2180.2490.6230.6913.0 pts
White House base rate3630.2320.2340.6540.6626.2 pts
Fed5060.2140.2360.6140.6654.5 pts
Politics5,9020.2200.2490.6280.6912.0 pts
World8420.2310.2480.6560.6892.4 pts
News4,0690.2230.2410.6360.6762.9 pts
Business9350.2090.2340.6000.6605.9 pts
Podcasts1,9140.1950.2500.5730.6937.0 pts
Entertainment2,1680.1970.2350.5810.6643.8 pts
Sports10,5270.1940.2510.5690.6951.8 pts
All categories40,3110.2060.2470.5970.6881.8 pts

White House: p barely beats a constant (Brier 0.232 vs 0.234); treat it as a base rate only.

Calibration gap: how far p sits from how often the word was said, averaged over 10 bins of p and weighted by markets.

Live since Oct 20

The constant here is each category's YES rate over every backtest market.

CategoryMarketsBrierpBrierconstantLog losspLog lossconstant
Earnings2050.1570.2480.4760.690
Trump1600.2230.2520.6280.697
Politics580.2880.2220.7790.638
News740.1960.2520.5780.698
Business390.2330.2700.6670.734
All categories5530.2030.2490.5860.691

1 category has fewer than 30 settled live markets so far; it is counted in All.

How we check

For every settled market whose event has a linked transcript, we count the word under the market's own speaker rule and check whether the count reaches the threshold the venue settled on. The share that matches is our agreement rate. How we count is on Methodology.

The venue's settlement is final. A mismatch means our text or our count differs from what the venue reviewed; it does not mean the venue was wrong.

p is scored separately, on settled markets only: each market is scored with the p it had before its event (for older events, the walk-forward p it would have had), and we compare it with what happened. p is a base rate built from history, not a forecast, and never advice.

What "Beta" means

Each category has a bar: the agreement we hold it to, set by how good its sources are. The Fed, the White House and world events such as Prime Minister's Questions are held to 98%, earnings calls to 97% (the T1 bar on Methodology), Trump, news, business and podcasts to 95%, and politics to 90%. When a category's agreement is below its bar over at least 30 settled checks, it is marked Beta in the table below. Its hub, speaker and appearance pages carry the same label.

  • In a Beta category, transcript counts and quotes are provisional. Check the mismatch list before relying on one.
  • Settlement history comes from the venues' own results, so it is not affected. Outside earnings, the probability p is built from settlement history only, so it is not affected either.
  • The label goes away once the category is back above its bar. The usual causes are a market matched to the wrong appearance, or speaker labels that need review.

By category

Each category is measured against its own bar. Below it, over at least 30 checks, it is marked Beta. Categories without transcripts show settlement history only and have nothing to check.

CategoryBarAgreementKalshiPolymarketStatus
Earnings97%99.18% 8,442/8,51299.23% 6,304/6,35399.03% 2,138/2,159Meets its 97% bar
Trump95%96.17% 3,997/4,15696.48% 2,550/2,64395.64% 1,447/1,513Meets its 95% bar
White House Beta98%97.55% 1,870/1,91797.51% 1,407/1,44397.68% 463/474Beta: below its 98% bar
Fed98%99.47% 757/76199.77% 440/44199.06% 317/320Meets its 98% bar
Politics90%94.81% 1,078/1,13795.24% 1,001/1,05189.53% 77/86Meets its 90% bar
World98%98.53% 401/40799.10% 329/33296.00% 72/75Meets its 98% bar
News95%97.59% 1,826/1,87197.60% 1,708/1,75097.52% 118/121Meets its 95% bar
Business95%97.71% 597/61197.48% 465/47798.51% 132/134Meets its 95% bar
Podcasts95%96.72% 501/51894.26% 115/12297.47% 386/396Meets its 95% bar
Entertainment————Not yet measured
Sports————History only
All categories—97.88% 19,469/19,89097.99% 14,319/14,61297.57% 5,150/5,278

Window markets

Weekly and monthly markets settle on every appearance in the window. We can grade one only when our count already decides it: a YES once the word is found, a NO only when every appearance in the window has text. So most graded window markets settled YES, and their rate measures YES-side precision. They are included in the category rates above.

CategoryAgreement (graded)Graded YESGraded NO
Trump97.42% 830/852832 of 2,40820 of 1,922

Mismatches

421 settled markets where our count and the settlement differ. All of them are below, latest first.

DateSubjectWordVenueSettledOur countWho counts
Donald TrumpAI / Artificial IntelligenceKalshiNO2 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpAI / Artificial IntelligencePolymarketNO2 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpHormuzKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
World News TonightIran / IranianKalshiNO2 needs 1any host or reporter
United Airlines (UAL)A321XLRKalshiNO1 needs 1company speakers + operator
Donald TrumpBessentKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpElon / MuskKalshiNO2 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpElon / MuskPolymarketNO2 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpHormuzKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpAfford / Affordable / AffordabilityKalshiNO1 needs 1named speaker only
NYT front pageWomanPolymarketYES0 needs 1—
World News TonightTrump (5+ times)KalshiNO5 needs 5any host or reporter
World News TonightZachariaKalshiYES0 needs 1any host or reporter
TSMC (TSM)A12 / A13PolymarketNO1 needs 1anyone
Katie Zacharia on HannityLawyerKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
TSMC (TSM)NanometerPolymarketYES0 needs 1anyone
Mark Kelly on The BriefingElectionKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Prime Minister's QuestionsReformPolymarketNO1 needs 1named speaker only
World News TonightZachariaKalshiYES0 needs 1any host or reporter
NYT front pageWomanPolymarketYES0 needs 1—
Lemonade StandAI / Artificial Intelligence 15+ timesPolymarketNO15 needs 15anyone
World News TonightDieselKalshiNO2 needs 1any host or reporter
Levi's (LEVI)GlowzoneKalshiYES0 needs 1company speakers + operator
World News TonightNuclearKalshiNO1 needs 1any host or reporter
Jamie Raskin on All InTrump (3+ times)KalshiNO3 needs 3named speaker only
Abdul El-Sayed on Fox NewsAIPACKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Abdul El-Sayed on Fox NewsTariffKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpPutinPolymarketNO3 needs 1named speaker only
MrBeastDollar 10+ timesPolymarketYES5 needs 10named speaker only
World News TonightAI / Artificial IntelligenceKalshiNO2 needs 1any host or reporter
Lemonade StandAI / Artificial Intelligence 10+ timesPolymarketNO12 needs 10anyone
Cal-Maine Foods (CALM)Avian Influenza / HPAIKalshiNO3 needs 1company speakers + operator
Micron (MU)Customer 25+ timesPolymarketYES18 needs 25anyone
Micron (MU)Data Center 5+ timesPolymarketYES1 needs 5anyone
World News TonightHegsethKalshiYES0 needs 1any host or reporter
Lemonade StandRedPolymarketYES0 needs 1anyone
World News TonightTerror / Terrorist / TerrorismKalshiNO1 needs 1any host or reporter
Vlad TenevAI / Artificial IntelligenceKalshiNO4 needs 1named speaker only
Vlad TenevBitcoinKalshiNO1 needs 1named speaker only
Vlad TenevFuturesKalshiNO3 needs 1named speaker only
World News TonightOpenAI / AnthropicKalshiYES0 needs 1any host or reporter
Vlad TenevTokenized / TokenizationKalshiNO1 needs 1named speaker only
Cory Booker on The WeeknightAfford / Affordable / AffordabilityKalshiNO1 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpArgentinaKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpBidenKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpBillion / TrillionKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpCartelKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpChina / ChineseKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpDemocratKalshiNO1 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpDenmark / DanishKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpDieselKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpDrone / TorpedoKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpDrone / TorpedoPolymarketYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpFake NewsKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpFake NewsPolymarketYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpFentanylKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpGaza / PalestineKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpGreenland (3+ times)KalshiYES0 needs 3named speaker only
Donald TrumpHormuzKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpHormuzPolymarketYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpHostageKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpInvest / Invested / InvestmentKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpInvest / Invested / InvestmentPolymarketYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpJapan / JapaneseKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpNuclearKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpNuclearPolymarketYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpOil / Gas / GasolineKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpOil / Gas / GasolinePolymarketYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpPutinKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpRare Earth / MineralKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpRare Earth / MineralPolymarketYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpRussia / RussianKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpStock MarketKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpStock MarketPolymarketYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpTariffKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpTariffPolymarketYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpTradeKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpVenezuela / VenezuelanKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpZelenskyKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpZelenskyPolymarketYES0 needs 1named speaker only
World News TonightKennedyKalshiNO1 needs 1any host or reporter
World News TonightFed / Federal Reserve / Interest RateKalshiNO1 needs 1any host or reporter
Donald TrumpAI / Artificial IntelligenceKalshiNO1 needs 1named speaker only
World News TonightFed / Federal Reserve / Interest RateKalshiNO1 needs 1any host or reporter
World News TonightAI / Artificial IntelligenceKalshiNO2 needs 1any host or reporter
Donald TrumpAfford / Affordable / AffordabilityKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpCharlotte / GolfKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpCheat / Cheater / CheatingKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpChinaPolymarketYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpChina / ChineseKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpCommunist / CommunismKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpCommunist / Communism 5+ timesPolymarketYES0 needs 5named speaker only
Donald TrumpCrazyPolymarketYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpCrime / Criminal 15+ timesPolymarketYES2 needs 15named speaker only
Donald TrumpDeport / Deported / DeportationKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpDividend / StimulusKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpEggPolymarketYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpEndorse / Endorsed / EndorsementKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpFEMAKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpFake NewsKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpFraudKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpHealthcareKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpHealthcarePolymarketYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpHottestKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpHottestPolymarketYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpICEKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpKamalaKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpLandslideKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpMAGA / Make America Great AgainKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpMake America Healthy AgainPolymarketYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpMillion / Billion / Trillion 20+ timesPolymarketYES8 needs 20named speaker only
Donald TrumpOil / Gas / GasolineKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Prime Minister's QuestionsReformKalshiNO1 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpRussiaPolymarketYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpSanctuaryKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpSave America ActKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpSave America ActPolymarketYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpStock MarketKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpStock MarketPolymarketYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpSupreme CourtKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpTransgenderKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpTransgenderPolymarketYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpWarshKalshiNO1 needs 1named speaker only
Cory Booker on All InBillionaireKalshiNO3 needs 1named speaker only
World News TonightFed / Federal Reserve / Interest RateKalshiNO1 needs 1any host or reporter
SalesforceSaaSpocalypseKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Jack Clark on Special ReportRegulation / Regulate / RegulatedKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Wes Moore on Fox News SundayAI / Artificial IntelligenceKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpChinaPolymarketYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Wes Moore on Fox News SundayConstitution / Constitutional / UnconstitutionalKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Wes Moore on Fox News SundayElectionKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
World News TonightFed / Federal Reserve / Interest RateKalshiNO1 needs 1any host or reporter
Donald TrumpHundred / Thousand 10+ timesPolymarketNO10 needs 10named speaker only
Donald TrumpBarack Hussein ObamaKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpCharlie / KirkKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpDellKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpMacronKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpSchumerKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpSleepy JoeKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpTalarico / TalafreakoKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
World News TonightTariffKalshiNO1 needs 1any host or reporter
Donald TrumpThuneKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpVanceKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
World News TonightAmazon / 767KalshiYES0 needs 1any host or reporter
AppleChipKalshiNO2 needs 1named speaker only
John TernusChipPolymarketNO2 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpDumbocrat / DumacratKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Lemonade StandRedPolymarketNO1 needs 1anyone
World News TonightJob / HiringKalshiNO1 needs 1any host or reporter
Donald TrumpJourney / Travel / TravelledPolymarketYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpTunnel to TowersKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpTunnel to TowersPolymarketYES0 needs 1named speaker only
The Joe Rogan ExperienceRedPolymarketNO1 needs 1anyone
NYT front pageWomanPolymarketYES0 needs 1—
World News TonightFCC / DisneyKalshiNO2 needs 1any host or reporter
Zohran MamdaniAI / Artificial IntelligencePolymarketYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Zohran MamdaniCommunityPolymarketNO1 needs 1named speaker only
Zohran MamdaniHealthPolymarketNO1 needs 1named speaker only
Zohran MamdaniSafe / Safer / SafetyPolymarketYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Zohran MamdaniSchoolPolymarketYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Dell (DELL)Dividend (3+ times)KalshiYES1 needs 3company speakers + operator
Dell (DELL)PowerEdge / Power EdgeKalshiYES0 needs 1company speakers + operator
Zohran MamdaniSue / Sued / Suing / LawsuitKalshiNO1 needs 1named speaker only
Zohran MamdaniTrump / PresidentKalshiNO1 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpMetaKalshiNO1 needs 1named speaker only
World News TonightMoonKalshiNO1 needs 1any host or reporter
Donald TrumpBitcoin / Crypto / CryptocurrencyPolymarketYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpInvestigationPolymarketYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Ted Cruz on Meet the PressTalaricoKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on Saturday in AmericaMAHA / Make America Healthy AgainKalshiNO1 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpIranKalshiNO1 needs 1named speaker only
CrowdStrike (CRWD)AI DetectionKalshiNO2 needs 1company speakers + operator
World News TonightCanadaKalshiYES0 needs 1any host or reporter
World News TonightLake America / OntarioKalshiYES0 needs 1any host or reporter
World News TonightMeaslesKalshiYES0 needs 1any host or reporter
World News TonightTrump (5+ times)KalshiYES0 needs 5any host or reporter
World News TonightUkraine / UkrainianKalshiYES0 needs 1any host or reporter
Intuit (INTU)Pro TaxKalshiNO2 needs 1company speakers + operator
Intuit (INTU)QuickBooks AdvancedKalshiYES0 needs 1company speakers + operator
Beto O'Rourke on All InIran / IranianKalshiNO1 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpIsraelPolymarketYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpNATOPolymarketYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Joe Manchin on Fox NewsOil / Gas / GasolineKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
MrBeastDollar 5+ timesPolymarketYES2 needs 5named speaker only
MrBeastHundred / Thousand / Million 10+ timesPolymarketYES2 needs 10named speaker only
MrBeastSponsor / Sponsored / SponsoringPolymarketYES0 needs 1named speaker only
MrBeastTime 5+ timesPolymarketYES0 needs 5named speaker only
World News TonightAI / Artificial IntelligenceKalshiNO2 needs 1any host or reporter
Walmart (WMT)Brick and MortarKalshiNO1 needs 1company speakers + operator
YETIInternational 20+ timesPolymarketNO20 needs 20anyone
eToro (ETOR)CopyTraderKalshiNO1 needs 1company speakers + operator
Donald TrumpRussiaPolymarketYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpDumbocrat / DumacratKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
AMDGPU 10+ timesPolymarketYES9 needs 10anyone
Spotify (SPOT)StreamPolymarketYES0 needs 1anyone
SpaceX (SPCX)T-MobileKalshiNO1 needs 1company speakers + operator
Snap (SNAP)SpectaclesKalshiNO13 needs 1company speakers + operator
Donald TrumpGoatPolymarketNO2 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpSix SevenPolymarketNO2 needs 1named speaker only
Yum! Brands (YUM)Buyback / Share RepurchaseKalshiYES0 needs 1company speakers + operator
Microsoft (MSFT)AI / Artificial Intelligence 30+ timesPolymarketYES29 needs 30anyone
Donald TrumpDumbocrat / DumacratKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Ford (F)AI / Artificial IntelligenceKalshiNO1 needs 1company speakers + operator
PayPal (PYPL)Agentic CommerceKalshiYES0 needs 1company speakers + operator
PayPal (PYPL)Agentic CommercePolymarketYES0 needs 1anyone
Donald TrumpDumbocrat / DumacratKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpTrump 5+ timesPolymarketYES3 needs 5named speaker only
Donald TrumpSix SevenPolymarketNO1 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpAI / Artificial IntelligenceKalshiNO2 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpDumbocrat / DumacratKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
White House press briefingCDC / WHOPolymarketNO10 needs 1role: press secretary
White House press briefingCorrespondents DinnerKalshiYES0 needs 1role: press secretary
Donald TrumpDumbocrat / DumacratKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpFake NewsKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpFake NewsPolymarketYES0 needs 1named speaker only
White House press briefingTruth SocialKalshiYES0 needs 1role: press secretary
White House press briefingWorld CupPolymarketYES0 needs 1role: press secretary
Donald Trump250KalshiNO3 needs 1named speaker only
Tesla (TSLA)CybertruckKalshiNO1 needs 1company speakers + operator
Tesla (TSLA)CybertruckPolymarketNO1 needs 1anyone
Google (GOOGL)Gemini 3KalshiNO5 needs 1company speakers + operator
Donald TrumpSix SevenPolymarketNO1 needs 1named speaker only
Google (GOOGL)Youtube ShortsKalshiNO2 needs 1company speakers + operator
Donald TrumpSix SevenPolymarketNO1 needs 1named speaker only
White House press briefingThing 10+ timesPolymarketYES5 needs 10role: press secretary
JPMorgan (JPM)BuybackKalshiNO1 needs 1company speakers + operator
JPMorgan (JPM)Dollar 10+ timesPolymarketNO42 needs 10anyone
Zohran MamdaniWorld CupKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpChinaPolymarketYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpIsraelPolymarketYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpPopePolymarketYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpDroneKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpPutinKalshiNO1 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpPutinKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpAI / Artificial IntelligenceKalshiNO1 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpCuba / CubanKalshiNO1 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpSix SevenPolymarketNO2 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpUFCPolymarketYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpDumbocrat / DumacratKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpSwamp the VotePolymarketYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpDumbocrat / DumacratKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpDumbocrat / DumacratKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpAI / Artificial IntelligenceKalshiNO3 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpGold / GoldenPolymarketYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald Trump250KalshiNO1 needs 1named speaker only
FOMC press conferenceChairPolymarketYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpDumbocrat / DumacratKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpZelenskyPolymarketYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpCBSPolymarketYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpKnicksPolymarketNO2 needs 1named speaker only
Zohran MamdaniAfford / Affordable / AffordabilityKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Zohran MamdaniGroceryKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Zohran MamdaniTrump / PresidentKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Sridhar Ramaswamy on TBPNAnthropic / ClaudeKalshiNO2 needs 1named speaker only
Sridhar Ramaswamy on TBPNData CenterKalshiNO7 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpDumbocrat / DumacratKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Sridhar Ramaswamy on TBPNOpen SourceKalshiNO2 needs 1named speaker only
Sridhar Ramaswamy on TBPNOpenAI / ChatGPTKalshiNO3 needs 1named speaker only
Sridhar Ramaswamy on TBPNSecurity / CybersecurityKalshiNO3 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpIranKalshiNO5 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpDumbocrat / DumacratKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Matt MurphyInferenceKalshiNO2 needs 1named speaker only
Zohran MamdaniCrisisKalshiNO2 needs 1named speaker only
Zohran MamdaniIsrael / IsraeliKalshiNO1 needs 1named speaker only
Zohran MamdaniSafe / Safer / SafetyKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Nebius (NBIS)AetherKalshiYES0 needs 1company speakers + operator
Progressive (PGR)BuybackKalshiNO2 needs 1company speakers + operator
Ferrari (RACE)United States / AmericasKalshiYES0 needs 1company speakers + operator
Chipotle (CMG)Chipotle Lane / ChipotlaneKalshiYES0 needs 1company speakers + operator
Amazon (AMZN)Sponsored ProductsKalshiNO1 needs 1company speakers + operator
Zohran MamdaniIran / IranianKalshiNO1 needs 1named speaker only
Zohran MamdaniIran / IranianKalshiNO1 needs 1named speaker only
Zohran MamdaniLandlordKalshiNO1 needs 1named speaker only
Zohran MamdaniTrump / PresidentKalshiNO1 needs 1named speaker only
Alaska Air (ALK)AI / Artificial IntelligenceKalshiNO1 needs 1company speakers + operator
Scott BessentHormuzKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Prime Minister's QuestionsUnited StatesPolymarketNO1 needs 1named speaker only
Zohran MamdaniIran / IranianKalshiNO1 needs 1named speaker only
White House press briefingAir / Land / Sea 3+ timesPolymarketYES2 needs 3role: press secretary
Micron (MU)InventoryKalshiNO4 needs 1company speakers + operator
Micron (MU)New YorkKalshiNO1 needs 1company speakers + operator
Micron (MU)SmartphoneKalshiNO8 needs 1company speakers + operator
Vlad TenevSocialKalshiNO1 needs 1named speaker only
RBC (RY)StimulusKalshiYES0 needs 1company speakers + operator
Prime Minister's QuestionsConservativePolymarketNO11 needs 1named speaker only
Circle (CRCL)KrakenKalshiYES0 needs 1company speakers + operator
Zohran MamdaniSafe / Safer / SafetyKalshiNO1 needs 1named speaker only
Zohran MamdaniSnowKalshiNO1 needs 1named speaker only
Zohran MamdaniTrump / PresidentKalshiNO2 needs 1named speaker only
Lyft (LYFT)MobileyeKalshiYES0 needs 1company speakers + operator
Zohran MamdaniFive BoroughKalshiNO1 needs 1named speaker only
Zohran MamdaniFreeze / FreezingKalshiNO2 needs 1named speaker only
Zohran MamdaniNYPDKalshiNO2 needs 1named speaker only
Zohran MamdaniSnowKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Zohran MamdaniTrump / PresidentKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Zohran MamdaniEconomy / EconomicKalshiNO1 needs 1named speaker only
Zohran MamdaniTrumpKalshiNO1 needs 1named speaker only
Zohran MamdaniAfford / Affordable / AffordabilityKalshiNO1 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpBitcoinPolymarketYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpBreaking NewsPolymarketYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpF-47PolymarketYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpJerome Too Late PowellPolymarketYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpRolexPolymarketYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpSkyrocket / SkyrocketedPolymarketYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpTeleprompterPolymarketYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpTrump Derangement SyndromePolymarketYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpTrumpRx.gov / TrumpRx.com / TrumpRxPolymarketYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Meta (META)DividendKalshiYES0 needs 1company speakers + operator
FOMC press conferenceRenovationKalshiYES0 needs 1role: fed chair
Ryanair (RYAAY)Elon / MuskPolymarketYES0 needs 1anyone
White House press briefingGo ahead 6+ timesPolymarketYES5 needs 6named speaker only
Ryanair (RYAAY)HolidayPolymarketYES0 needs 1anyone
Ryanair (RYAAY)StarlinkPolymarketYES0 needs 1anyone
Donald TrumpCovid / PandemicPolymarketYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpCrypto / BitcoinPolymarketYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpGreat ShapePolymarketYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpRadical Left LunaticPolymarketYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Donald TrumpVenezuela On SteroidsPolymarketYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Elon MuskRobotaxiKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Zohran MamdaniTrump / PresidentKalshiNO2 needs 1named speaker only
Netflix (NFLX)Warner BrosKalshiNO3 needs 1company speakers + operator
Zohran MamdaniAffordable / AffordabilityKalshiNO5 needs 1named speaker only
Zohran MamdaniAfrica / AfricanKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Zohran MamdaniCrisisKalshiNO2 needs 1named speaker only
Zohran MamdaniCrisisKalshiNO2 needs 1named speaker only
Zohran MamdaniMorocco / MoroccanKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Zohran MamdaniSafe / Safer / SafetyKalshiNO1 needs 1named speaker only
Zohran MamdaniSoccerKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Zohran MamdaniTrump / PresidentKalshiNO1 needs 1named speaker only
Zohran MamdaniWorking People / Working ClassKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Zohran MamdaniCivicPolymarketNO1 needs 1named speaker only
Zohran MamdaniEconomy / EconomicKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Zohran MamdaniHome / HousingKalshiNO4 needs 1named speaker only
Zohran MamdaniHome / HousingPolymarketNO4 needs 1named speaker only
Zohran MamdaniPoliticsPolymarketYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Zohran MamdaniQueens / Manhattan / BrooklynPolymarketNO1 needs 1named speaker only
Zohran MamdaniTip / FeeKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Zohran MamdaniWorking People / Working ClassKalshiNO1 needs 1named speaker only
JPMorgan (JPM)BuybackKalshiNO1 needs 1company speakers + operator
JPMorgan (JPM)BuybackPolymarketNO1 needs 1anyone
Zohran MamdaniFree Bus / Fast & FreeKalshiNO1 needs 1named speaker only
Zohran MamdaniHome / HousingKalshiNO2 needs 1named speaker only
Zohran MamdaniICE / National GuardKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Zohran MamdaniImmigrant / ImmigrationKalshiNO1 needs 1named speaker only
Zohran MamdaniImmigrant / ImmigrationKalshiNO1 needs 1named speaker only
Zohran MamdaniNYPDKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
JD VanceLearingKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Zohran MamdaniAffordable / AffordabilityKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Prime Minister's QuestionsClean / GreenKalshiNO1 needs 1named speaker only
Zohran MamdaniInequality / CrisisKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Zohran MamdaniTrumpKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
White House press briefingAffordable / AffordabilityKalshiYES0 needs 1role: press secretary
Jensen HuangMillion / Billion / Trillion 20+ timesPolymarketNO20 needs 20named speaker only
FedEx (FDX)TruckPolymarketYES0 needs 1anyone
Micron (MU)AutomationKalshiNO2 needs 1company speakers + operator
Micron (MU)HyperscalerKalshiNO1 needs 1company speakers + operator
Micron (MU)InventoryKalshiNO4 needs 1company speakers + operator
Micron (MU)New YorkKalshiNO4 needs 1company speakers + operator
Micron (MU)SmartphoneKalshiNO5 needs 1company speakers + operator
Micron (MU)TariffKalshiNO1 needs 1company speakers + operator
Snowflake (SNOW)HiringKalshiYES0 needs 1company speakers + operator
Snowflake (SNOW)HiringPolymarketYES0 needs 1anyone
Prime Minister's QuestionsClean / GreenKalshiNO1 needs 1named speaker only
Nebius (NBIS)RoboticKalshiNO1 needs 1company speakers + operator
Vlad Tenev on TBPNKalshiKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Amazon (AMZN)Project KuiperKalshiYES0 needs 1company speakers + operator
Amazon (AMZN)Project KuiperPolymarketYES0 needs 1anyone
Satya Nadella on TBPNChatGPTKalshiYES0 needs 1named speaker only
Chipotle (CMG)Share PurchaseKalshiYES0 needs 1company speakers + operator
Chipotle (CMG)Share PurchasePolymarketYES0 needs 1anyone
White House press briefingGo ahead 5+ timesPolymarketYES4 needs 5named speaker only
White House press briefingPutinKalshiNO1 needs 1role: press secretary
Nike (NKE)Express LaneKalshiYES0 needs 1company speakers + operator
AppleAirtagKalshiNO1 needs 1named speaker only
AppleChipKalshiNO2 needs 1named speaker only
AMCAdvertisementPolymarketYES0 needs 1anyone
Sam AltmanInnovationKalshiNO1 needs 1named speaker only
Netflix (NFLX)AI / Artificial Intelligence 7+ timesPolymarketYES5 needs 7company speakers + operator
FOMC press conferenceJudgePolymarketNO1 needs 1named speaker only
NVIDIA (NVDA)A100KalshiNO1 needs 1company speakers
White House press briefingPutinKalshiNO1 needs 1role: press secretary
White House press briefingHouthisKalshiNO1 needs 1role: press secretary
White House press briefingIndiaKalshiNO1 needs 1role: press secretary
White House press briefingPakistanKalshiNO1 needs 1role: press secretary
Coinbase (COIN)Decentralized Exchange / DEXKalshiYES0 needs 1company speakers
Meta (META)Quest 3KalshiNO1 needs 1company speakers
White House press briefingIsraelKalshiNO1 needs 1role: press secretary
White House press briefingStudentKalshiNO1 needs 1role: press secretary
White House press briefingTariffKalshiNO3 needs 1role: press secretary
White House press briefingUkraineKalshiNO1 needs 1role: press secretary
White House press briefingPresident 60+ timesPolymarketYES58 needs 60named speaker only
White House press briefingGo Ahead 5+ timesPolymarketYES4 needs 5named speaker only
White House press briefingGary / UnderhillKalshiNO1 needs 1role: press secretary
White House press briefingAmerica FirstKalshiYES0 needs 1role: press secretary
White House press briefingBessentKalshiNO1 needs 1role: press secretary
White House press briefingDOGE / Department of Government Efficiency / DogeKalshiYES0 needs 1role: press secretary
White House press briefingDeportKalshiNO4 needs 1role: press secretary
White House press briefingFordKalshiYES0 needs 1role: press secretary
White House press briefingFraudKalshiYES0 needs 1role: press secretary
White House press briefingInflationKalshiNO2 needs 1role: press secretary
White House press briefingRussiaKalshiNO2 needs 1role: press secretary
White House press briefingStockKalshiYES0 needs 1role: press secretary
White House press briefingUkraineKalshiNO1 needs 1role: press secretary
White House press briefingAlexis / NungarayKalshiYES0 needs 1role: press secretary
White House press briefingAmerica FirstKalshiNO2 needs 1role: press secretary
White House press briefingCBSKalshiYES0 needs 1role: press secretary
White House press briefingDJ / DevarjayeKalshiYES0 needs 1role: press secretary
White House press briefingDOGE / Department of Government Efficiency / DogeKalshiNO3 needs 1role: press secretary
White House press briefingFraudKalshiNO4 needs 1role: press secretary
White House press briefingInflationKalshiYES0 needs 1role: press secretary
White House press briefingIsraelKalshiYES0 needs 1role: press secretary
White House press briefingMohmmad / SharifullahKalshiYES0 needs 1role: press secretary
White House press briefingRussiaKalshiYES0 needs 1role: press secretary
White House press briefingTrillionKalshiNO2 needs 1role: press secretary
White House press briefingUkraineKalshiYES0 needs 1role: press secretary
White House press briefingWall StreetKalshiNO3 needs 1role: press secretary
White House press briefingPresident 100+ timesPolymarketNO103 needs 100named speaker only
White House press briefingWar 5+ timesPolymarketNO5 needs 5named speaker only
White House press briefingZelensky 3+ timesPolymarketYES0 needs 3named speaker only
NVIDIA (NVDA)DeepSeekKalshiYES0 needs 1company speakers
FOMC press conferenceGrowth 10+ timesPolymarketNO10 needs 10named speaker only

Text updated 2026-10-21. Plain text for agents.