Will JD Vance say “Democrat”?

As of Oct 26, 2026, JD Vance said “Democrat” at 45 of 56 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Sep 17, 2025 (80%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 84% (n=56, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 rallies have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4. No rallies among them yet.

84%from settlement history only · n=56Next: Rally, Oct 26, 2026 · counts: named speaker only
Last 10
10/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes
Streak
said the last 10 times
Counts
named speaker only
Market
97¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
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Where it was said

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JD Vance

Democrat

Probability
84% · n=56
Settled
45/56 (80%)
Last 5 transcripts
said in 4 of 5

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

JD VancespeakerVice President JD Vance Briefs Members of the Media, Sep. 3, 2026 · Sep 3, 2026 · 7:28In transcript

…you just look back to the last administration, I mean, even the Democrats in the room, and I know you guys, if you're being honest,…

JD VancespeakerVice President JD Vance Briefs Members of the Media, May 19, 2026 · May 19, 2026 · 11:21In transcript

…the way, anybody can apply for it. Republicans can apply for it. Democrats can apply for it. As you know, the President of the United…

JD VanceotherPress Briefing by Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt and the Vice President, Jan. 8, 2026 · Jan 8, 2026 · 10:52In transcript

…say, as a matter of leadership, and I would appreciate if the Democrats would join me on this, let's be honest about the fact that…

JD VanceotherPress Secretary Karoline Leavitt Briefs Members of the Media, Oct. 1, 2025 · Oct 1, 2025 · 4:45In transcript

…say a few things, then I'll take a few questions. Number one, Democrats say that they care a lot about lowering healthcare costs, and yet…

What will JD Vance say during his rally in Montana? · not listed

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What will JD Vance say during his fraud press conference? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will JD Vance say during his announcement? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will JD Vance say during his rally in North Carolina? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will JD Vance say during his CBS Town Hall? · settled yes

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in Michigan? · settled yes

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in Ohio? · settled yes

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What will JD Vance say during his rally in Alaska? · settled yes

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What will JD Vance say during Fox News: Hannity? · settled yes

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What will JD Vance say during his Midterm Rally in Florida? · settled yes

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Every settled listing

newest first · 58 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Oct 21, 2026DemocratKalshiYes
Oct 20, 2026DemocratKalshiYes
Oct 19, 2026DemocratKalshiYes
Oct 17, 2026DemocratKalshiYes
Oct 15, 2026DemocratKalshiYes
Oct 9, 2026DemocratKalshiYes
Oct 5, 2026DemocratKalshiYes
Oct 1, 2026DemocratKalshiYes
Oct 1, 2026DemocratKalshiYes
Sep 30, 2026DemocratKalshiYes
Sep 29, 2026DemocratKalshiYes
Sep 21, 2026DemocratKalshiYes
Sep 18, 2026DemocratKalshiYes
Sep 14, 2026DemocratKalshiYes
Sep 14, 2026DemocratKalshiYes
Sep 9, 2026DemocratKalshiYes
Sep 3, 2026DemocratKalshiYes
Aug 31, 2026DemocratKalshiYes
Aug 24, 2026DemocratKalshiYes
Aug 21, 2026DemocratKalshiYes
Aug 8, 2026DemocratKalshiYes
Jul 1, 2026DemocratKalshiNo
Jun 17, 2026DemocratKalshiYes
Jun 16, 2026DemocratKalshiYes
Jun 16, 2026DemocratKalshiNo
Jun 16, 2026DemocratKalshiYes
Jun 15, 2026DemocratKalshiNo
Jun 14, 2026DemocratKalshiNo
Jun 8, 2026DemocratKalshiYes
May 29, 2026DemocratKalshiVoid (did not qualify)
May 28, 2026DemocratKalshiNo
May 19, 2026DemocratKalshiYes
May 18, 2026DemocratKalshiYes
May 16, 2026DemocratKalshiYes
May 15, 2026DemocratKalshiYes
May 14, 2026DemocratKalshiYes
May 5, 2026DemocratKalshiYes
Apr 30, 2026DemocratKalshiVoid (did not qualify)
Apr 29, 2026DemocratKalshiNo
Apr 14, 2026DemocratKalshiYes
Apr 13, 2026DemocratKalshiNo
Apr 7, 2026DemocratKalshiNo
Apr 1, 2026DemocratKalshiYes
Mar 17, 2026DemocratKalshiNo
Mar 9, 2026DemocratKalshiYes
Mar 3, 2026DemocratKalshiYes
Feb 27, 2026DemocratKalshiYes
Feb 26, 2026DemocratKalshiYes
Feb 18, 2026DemocratKalshiYes
Feb 5, 2026DemocratKalshiNo
Jan 24, 2026DemocratKalshiYes
Dec 22, 2025DemocratKalshiYes
Nov 27, 2025DemocratKalshiYes
Nov 21, 2025DemocratKalshiYes
Oct 30, 2025DemocratKalshiYes
Sep 24, 2025DemocratKalshiYes
Sep 21, 2025DemocratKalshiNo
Sep 17, 2025DemocratKalshiYes

Questions

How often does JD Vance say “Democrat”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, JD Vance said “Democrat” at 45 of 56 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Sep 17, 2025 (80%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026.
What is the probability JD Vance says “Democrat” next time?
84%, from settlement history (n=56). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘Democrat’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/democrat (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=democrat · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP