Mark Warner
As of Oct 24, 2026, Kalshi has settled 33 word markets on Mark Warner’s appearances since 2026, on 23 different words.
History Wall
1–23 of 23, most settled first| Word | Feb 10episode | Apr 14episode | Jun 7latest | Last 3 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | 5 times: Trump, Feb 10 episode, counts as said | Settled yes: Trump, Apr 14 episode | Settled yes: Trump, Jun 7 episode | 3/3100% | 3/3100% | – |
| Democracy | 0 times: Democracy, Feb 10 episode | Settled no: Democracy, Apr 14 episode | Settled no: Democracy, Jun 7 episode | 0/30% | 0/30% | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Feb 10 episode | Settled yes: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Apr 14 episode | Settled yes: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Jun 7 episode | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Feb 10 episode | Settled yes: Iran / Iranian, Apr 14 episode | Settled yes: Iran / Iranian, Jun 7 episode | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | – |
| Republican | 2 times: Republican, Feb 10 episode, counts as said | Not listed: Republican, Apr 14 episode | Settled yes: Republican, Jun 7 episode | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Feb 10 episode | Settled yes: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Apr 14 episode | Settled no: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Jun 7 episode | 1/250% | 1/250% | – |
| Ceasefire | Not listed: Ceasefire, Feb 10 episode | Settled no: Ceasefire, Apr 14 episode | Settled yes: Ceasefire, Jun 7 episode | 1/250% | 1/250% | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Not listed: Israel / Israeli, Feb 10 episode | Settled yes: Israel / Israeli, Apr 14 episode | Settled no: Israel / Israeli, Jun 7 episode | 1/250% | 1/250% | – |
| Blockade | Not listed: Blockade, Feb 10 episode | Settled yes: Blockade, Apr 14 episode | Not listed: Blockade, Jun 7 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | – |
| Tulsi / Gabbard | 6 times: Tulsi / Gabbard, Feb 10 episode, counts as said | Not listed: Tulsi / Gabbard, Apr 14 episode | Not listed: Tulsi / Gabbard, Jun 7 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | – |
| Hormuz | Not listed: Hormuz, Feb 10 episode | Settled yes: Hormuz, Apr 14 episode | Not listed: Hormuz, Jun 7 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | – |
| ICE / National Guard | 9 times: ICE / National Guard, Feb 10 episode, counts as said | Not listed: ICE / National Guard, Apr 14 episode | Not listed: ICE / National Guard, Jun 7 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | – |
| Pope | Not listed: Pope, Feb 10 episode | Settled yes: Pope, Apr 14 episode | Not listed: Pope, Jun 7 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | – |
| Pulte | Not listed: Pulte, Feb 10 episode | Not listed: Pulte, Apr 14 episode | Settled yes: Pulte, Jun 7 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency | 0 times: Crypto / Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency, Feb 10 episode | Not listed: Crypto / Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency, Apr 14 episode | Not listed: Crypto / Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency, Jun 7 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Not listed: Corrupt / Corruption, Feb 10 episode | Not listed: Corrupt / Corruption, Apr 14 episode | Settled no: Corrupt / Corruption, Jun 7 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Election | Not listed: Election, Feb 10 episode | Settled no: Election, Apr 14 episode | Not listed: Election, Jun 7 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Nationalize / Federalize | 0 times: Nationalize / Federalize, Feb 10 episode | Not listed: Nationalize / Federalize, Apr 14 episode | Not listed: Nationalize / Federalize, Jun 7 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| ICE | Not listed: ICE, Feb 10 episode | Not listed: ICE, Apr 14 episode | Settled no: ICE, Jun 7 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Kristi / Noem | 0 times: Kristi / Noem, Feb 10 episode | Not listed: Kristi / Noem, Apr 14 episode | Not listed: Kristi / Noem, Jun 7 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Mask / Masked | 0 times: Mask / Masked, Feb 10 episode | Not listed: Mask / Masked, Apr 14 episode | Not listed: Mask / Masked, Jun 7 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Midterm | 0 times: Midterm, Feb 10 episode | Not listed: Midterm, Apr 14 episode | Not listed: Midterm, Jun 7 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Nuclear | Not listed: Nuclear, Feb 10 episode | Settled no: Nuclear, Apr 14 episode | Not listed: Nuclear, Jun 7 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 3Settled results come from the venues. Our own transcript counts appear here once transcripts arrive for these appearances. How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will Mark Warner say during Fox News Sunday? | no transcript | 12 | 6 yes · 6 no | – |
| Apr 14, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will Mark Warner say during The Last Word? | no transcript | 13 | 8 yes · 5 no | – |
| Feb 10, 2026 | EpisodeMention: Mark Warner on Face the Nation | Official transcript | 10 | 4 yes · 6 no | 10/10 (100%) |
Citeparrot.markets, “Mark Warner: mention market word history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/mark-warner (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/mark-warner · words: /api/v1/history?entity=mark-warner · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP