Ted Cruz
As of Oct 24, 2026, Kalshi has settled 63 word markets on Ted Cruz’s appearances since 2026, on 36 different words.
History Wall
1–37 of 37, most settled first| Word | Mar 2episode | May 11episode | Aug 25interview | Aug 30episode | Sep 10latest | Last 5 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | Not listed: Democrat, Mar 2 episode | Settled yes: Democrat, May 11 episode | Settled no: Democrat, Aug 25 interview | 5 times: Democrat, Aug 30 episode, counts as said | Settled yes: Democrat, Sep 10 speech | 3/475% | 3/475% | 47%n=2 from settlement history |
| Iran / Iranian | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Mar 2 episode | Settled no: Iran / Iranian, May 11 episode | Settled no: Iran / Iranian, Aug 25 interview | 11 times: Iran / Iranian, Aug 30 episode, counts as said | Settled no: Iran / Iranian, Sep 10 speech | 1/425% | 1/425% | 29%n=2 from settlement history |
| Talarico | Not listed: Talarico, Mar 2 episode | Not listed: Talarico, May 11 episode | Settled no: Talarico, Aug 25 interview | 0 times: Talarico, Aug 30 episode (our count 0 (needs 1) · the market settled yes) | Settled yes: Talarico, Sep 10 speech | 1/333% | 2/367% | 47%n=2 from settlement history |
| Trump3+ times | 6 times: Trump (3+ times), Mar 2 episode, counts as said | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), May 11 episode | Settled no: Trump (3+ times), Aug 25 interview | 8 times: Trump (3+ times), Aug 30 episode, counts as said | Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Sep 10 speech | 2/367% | 2/367% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Election | Not listed: Election, Mar 2 episode | Settled no: Election, May 11 episode | Settled no: Election, Aug 25 interview | 8 times: Election, Aug 30 episode, counts as said | Not listed: Election, Sep 10 speech | 1/333% | 1/333% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Israel / Israeli | 2 times: Israel / Israeli, Mar 2 episode, counts as said | Settled no: Israel / Israeli, May 11 episode | Not listed: Israel / Israeli, Aug 25 interview | Not listed: Israel / Israeli, Aug 30 episode | Settled no: Israel / Israeli, Sep 10 speech | 1/333% | 1/333% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Socialist / Socialism | Not listed: Socialist / Socialism, Mar 2 episode | Not listed: Socialist / Socialism, May 11 episode | Settled no: Socialist / Socialism, Aug 25 interview | 0 times: Socialist / Socialism, Aug 30 episode | Settled no: Socialist / Socialism, Sep 10 speech | 0/30% | 0/30% | 29%n=2 from settlement history |
| Supreme Court / SCOTUS | Not listed: Supreme Court / SCOTUS, Mar 2 episode | Not listed: Supreme Court / SCOTUS, May 11 episode | Settled yes: Supreme Court / SCOTUS, Aug 25 interview | 2 times: Supreme Court / SCOTUS, Aug 30 episode, counts as said | Not listed: Supreme Court / SCOTUS, Sep 10 speech | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| 2028 / Campaign | Not listed: 2028 / Campaign, Mar 2 episode | Not listed: 2028 / Campaign, May 11 episode | Settled no: 2028 / Campaign, Aug 25 interview | 2 times: 2028 / Campaign, Aug 30 episode, counts as said | Not listed: 2028 / Campaign, Sep 10 speech | 1/250% | 1/250% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional | 0 times: Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional, Mar 2 episode | Not listed: Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional, May 11 episode | Not listed: Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional, Aug 25 interview | Not listed: Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional, Aug 30 episode | Settled yes: Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional, Sep 10 speech | 1/250% | 1/250% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Mar 2 episode | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, May 11 episode | Settled no: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Aug 25 interview | 6 times: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Aug 30 episode, counts as said | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Sep 10 speech | 1/250% | 1/250% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Midterm | Not listed: Midterm, Mar 2 episode | Not listed: Midterm, May 11 episode | Settled no: Midterm, Aug 25 interview | 2 times: Midterm, Aug 30 episode, counts as said | Not listed: Midterm, Sep 10 speech | 1/250% | 1/250% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Nuclear | 6 times: Nuclear, Mar 2 episode, counts as said | Settled no: Nuclear, May 11 episode | Not listed: Nuclear, Aug 25 interview | Not listed: Nuclear, Aug 30 episode | Not listed: Nuclear, Sep 10 speech | 1/250% | 1/250% | – |
| Paxton | Not listed: Paxton, Mar 2 episode | Not listed: Paxton, May 11 episode | Settled no: Paxton, Aug 25 interview | 4 times: Paxton, Aug 30 episode, counts as said | Not listed: Paxton, Sep 10 speech | 1/250% | 1/250% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Mar 2 episode | Settled no: AI / Artificial Intelligence, May 11 episode | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Aug 25 interview | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Aug 30 episode | Settled no: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Sep 10 speech | 0/20% | 0/20% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Canada / Canadian | Not listed: Canada / Canadian, Mar 2 episode | Not listed: Canada / Canadian, May 11 episode | Settled no: Canada / Canadian, Aug 25 interview | 0 times: Canada / Canadian, Aug 30 episode | Not listed: Canada / Canadian, Sep 10 speech | 0/20% | 0/20% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Tariff | Not listed: Tariff, Mar 2 episode | Not listed: Tariff, May 11 episode | Settled no: Tariff, Aug 25 interview | 0 times: Tariff, Aug 30 episode | Not listed: Tariff, Sep 10 speech | 0/20% | 0/20% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Khamenei / Ayatollah | 2 times: Khamenei / Ayatollah, Mar 2 episode, counts as said | Not listed: Khamenei / Ayatollah, May 11 episode | Not listed: Khamenei / Ayatollah, Aug 25 interview | Not listed: Khamenei / Ayatollah, Aug 30 episode | Not listed: Khamenei / Ayatollah, Sep 10 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | – |
| Border | Not listed: Border, Mar 2 episode | Not listed: Border, May 11 episode | Not listed: Border, Aug 25 interview | Not listed: Border, Aug 30 episode | Settled yes: Border, Sep 10 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Election / Midterm | Not listed: Election / Midterm, Mar 2 episode | Not listed: Election / Midterm, May 11 episode | Not listed: Election / Midterm, Aug 25 interview | Not listed: Election / Midterm, Aug 30 episode | Settled yes: Election / Midterm, Sep 10 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Trump | Not listed: Trump, Mar 2 episode | Not listed: Trump, May 11 episode | Not listed: Trump, Aug 25 interview | Not listed: Trump, Aug 30 episode | Settled yes: Trump, Sep 10 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Uranium | 2 times: Uranium, Mar 2 episode, counts as said | Not listed: Uranium, May 11 episode | Not listed: Uranium, Aug 25 interview | Not listed: Uranium, Aug 30 episode | Not listed: Uranium, Sep 10 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | – |
| Assassinate / Assassination | 0 times: Assassinate / Assassination, Mar 2 episode | Not listed: Assassinate / Assassination, May 11 episode | Not listed: Assassinate / Assassination, Aug 25 interview | Not listed: Assassinate / Assassination, Aug 30 episode | Not listed: Assassinate / Assassination, Sep 10 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| China / Chinese | Not listed: China / Chinese, Mar 2 episode | Not listed: China / Chinese, May 11 episode | Not listed: China / Chinese, Aug 25 interview | Not listed: China / Chinese, Aug 30 episode | Settled no: China / Chinese, Sep 10 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Congress / Congressional | 0 times: Congress / Congressional, Mar 2 episode | Not listed: Congress / Congressional, May 11 episode | Not listed: Congress / Congressional, Aug 25 interview | Not listed: Congress / Congressional, Aug 30 episode | Not listed: Congress / Congressional, Sep 10 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Cuba / Cuban | Not listed: Cuba / Cuban, Mar 2 episode | Settled no: Cuba / Cuban, May 11 episode | Not listed: Cuba / Cuban, Aug 25 interview | Not listed: Cuba / Cuban, Aug 30 episode | Not listed: Cuba / Cuban, Sep 10 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Venezuela / Cuba | 0 times: Venezuela / Cuba, Mar 2 episode | Not listed: Venezuela / Cuba, May 11 episode | Not listed: Venezuela / Cuba, Aug 25 interview | Not listed: Venezuela / Cuba, Aug 30 episode | Not listed: Venezuela / Cuba, Sep 10 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Democracy | 0 times: Democracy, Mar 2 episode | Not listed: Democracy, May 11 episode | Not listed: Democracy, Aug 25 interview | Not listed: Democracy, Aug 30 episode | Not listed: Democracy, Sep 10 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Epic Fury | 0 times: Epic Fury, Mar 2 episode | Not listed: Epic Fury, May 11 episode | Not listed: Epic Fury, Aug 25 interview | Not listed: Epic Fury, Aug 30 episode | Not listed: Epic Fury, Sep 10 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Fraud | Not listed: Fraud, Mar 2 episode | Settled no: Fraud, May 11 episode | Not listed: Fraud, Aug 25 interview | Not listed: Fraud, Aug 30 episode | Not listed: Fraud, Sep 10 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Redistricting / Gerrymandering | Not listed: Redistricting / Gerrymandering, Mar 2 episode | Settled no: Redistricting / Gerrymandering, May 11 episode | Not listed: Redistricting / Gerrymandering, Aug 25 interview | Not listed: Redistricting / Gerrymandering, Aug 30 episode | Not listed: Redistricting / Gerrymandering, Sep 10 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Hormuz | Not listed: Hormuz, Mar 2 episode | Settled no: Hormuz, May 11 episode | Not listed: Hormuz, Aug 25 interview | Not listed: Hormuz, Aug 30 episode | Not listed: Hormuz, Sep 10 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Mexico / Mexican | Not listed: Mexico / Mexican, Mar 2 episode | Settled no: Mexico / Mexican, May 11 episode | Not listed: Mexico / Mexican, Aug 25 interview | Not listed: Mexico / Mexican, Aug 30 episode | Not listed: Mexico / Mexican, Sep 10 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Obama | 0 times: Obama, Mar 2 episode | Not listed: Obama, May 11 episode | Not listed: Obama, Aug 25 interview | Not listed: Obama, Aug 30 episode | Not listed: Obama, Sep 10 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Oil | Not listed: Oil, Mar 2 episode | Settled no: Oil, May 11 episode | Not listed: Oil, Aug 25 interview | Not listed: Oil, Aug 30 episode | Not listed: Oil, Sep 10 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Protest / Protester | 0 times: Protest / Protester, Mar 2 episode | Not listed: Protest / Protester, May 11 episode | Not listed: Protest / Protester, Aug 25 interview | Not listed: Protest / Protester, Aug 30 episode | Not listed: Protest / Protester, Sep 10 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | – |
| Tax | Not listed: Tax, Mar 2 episode | Not listed: Tax, May 11 episode | Not listed: Tax, Aug 25 interview | Not listed: Tax, Aug 30 episode | Settled no: Tax, Sep 10 speech | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 5Settled results come from the venues. Our own transcript counts appear here once transcripts arrive for these appearances. How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | SpeechWhat will Ted Cruz say during RNC Midterm Convention? | no transcript | 13 | 6 yes · 7 no | – |
| Aug 30, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will Ted Cruz say during Meet the Press? | Captions · machine-attributed | 14 | 10 yes · 4 no | 12/13 (92%) |
| Aug 25, 2026 | InterviewWhat will Ted Cruz say during his MS NOW interview? | no transcript | 14 | 1 yes · 13 no | – |
| May 11, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will Ted Cruz say during Fox News: Hannity? | no transcript | 13 | 1 yes · 12 no | – |
| Mar 2, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will Ted Cruz say during Face the Nation? | Official transcript | 13 | 5 yes · 8 no | 13/13 (100%) |
Citeparrot.markets, “Ted Cruz: mention market word history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/ted-cruz (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/ted-cruz · words: /api/v1/history?entity=ted-cruz · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP