Raphael Warnock

Politics · CongressPersonUS CongressMachine-attributedUpdated Oct 24, 2026, 00:48 UTC

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As of Oct 24, 2026, Kalshi has settled 68 word markets on Raphael Warnock’s appearances since 2026, on 29 different words; most reliably said: “Republican” (4 of 5).

History Wall

1–30 of 30, most settled first

Raphael Warnock: every word with settled markets, most settled first

Word	Mar 18interview	Apr 14episode	Jun 15episode	Jun 22episode	Jun 23episode	Sep 23episode	Oct 7latest	Last 7	Settled	Probability
Election	YSettled yes: Election, Mar 18 interview	NSettled no: Election, Apr 14 episode	YSettled yes: Election, Jun 15 episode	NSettled no: Election, Jun 22 episode	NSettled no: Election, Jun 23 episode	–Not listed: Election, Sep 23 episode	0 times: Election, Oct 7 episode	2/633%	2/633%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Republican	–Not listed: Republican, Mar 18 interview	YSettled yes: Republican, Apr 14 episode	NSettled no: Republican, Jun 15 episode	YSettled yes: Republican, Jun 22 episode	YSettled yes: Republican, Jun 23 episode	–Not listed: Republican, Sep 23 episode	2 times: Republican, Oct 7 episode, counts as said	4/580%	4/580%	–
Healthcare	–Not listed: Healthcare, Mar 18 interview	YSettled yes: Healthcare, Apr 14 episode	NSettled no: Healthcare, Jun 15 episode	YSettled yes: Healthcare, Jun 22 episode	NSettled no: Healthcare, Jun 23 episode	–Not listed: Healthcare, Sep 23 episode	1 time: Healthcare, Oct 7 episode, counts as said	3/560%	3/560%	–
Oil / Gas / Gasoline	–Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Mar 18 interview	YSettled yes: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Apr 14 episode	NSettled no: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Jun 15 episode	NSettled no: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Jun 22 episode	NSettled no: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Jun 23 episode	–Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Sep 23 episode	1 time: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Oct 7 episode, counts as said	2/540%	2/540%	–
Corrupt / Corruption	–Not listed: Corrupt / Corruption, Mar 18 interview	NSettled no: Corrupt / Corruption, Apr 14 episode	NSettled no: Corrupt / Corruption, Jun 15 episode	NSettled no: Corrupt / Corruption, Jun 22 episode	NSettled no: Corrupt / Corruption, Jun 23 episode	–Not listed: Corrupt / Corruption, Sep 23 episode	1 time: Corrupt / Corruption, Oct 7 episode, counts as said	1/520%	1/520%	–
ICE	–Not listed: ICE, Mar 18 interview	–Not listed: ICE, Apr 14 episode	YSettled yes: ICE, Jun 15 episode	YSettled yes: ICE, Jun 22 episode	YSettled yes: ICE, Jun 23 episode	–Not listed: ICE, Sep 23 episode	0 times: ICE, Oct 7 episode	3/475%	3/475%	–
Fraud	–Not listed: Fraud, Mar 18 interview	–Not listed: Fraud, Apr 14 episode	NSettled no: Fraud, Jun 15 episode	YSettled yes: Fraud, Jun 22 episode	NSettled no: Fraud, Jun 23 episode	–Not listed: Fraud, Sep 23 episode	0 times: Fraud, Oct 7 episode	1/425%	1/425%	–
Afford / Affordable / Affordability	YSettled yes: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Mar 18 interview	–Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Apr 14 episode	–Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Jun 15 episode	–Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Jun 22 episode	YSettled yes: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Jun 23 episode	–Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Sep 23 episode	1 time: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Oct 7 episode, counts as said	3/3100%	3/3100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Trump	YSettled yes: Trump, Mar 18 interview	YSettled yes: Trump, Apr 14 episode	–Not listed: Trump, Jun 15 episode	–Not listed: Trump, Jun 22 episode	YSettled yes: Trump, Jun 23 episode	–Not listed: Trump, Sep 23 episode	–Not listed: Trump, Oct 7 episode	3/3100%	3/3100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Trump3+ times	–Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Mar 18 interview	–Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Apr 14 episode	YSettled yes: Trump (3+ times), Jun 15 episode	NSettled no: Trump (3+ times), Jun 22 episode	–Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Jun 23 episode	–Not listed: Trump (3+ times), Sep 23 episode	9 times: Trump (3+ times), Oct 7 episode, counts as said	2/367%	2/367%	–
Democracy	–Not listed: Democracy, Mar 18 interview	–Not listed: Democracy, Apr 14 episode	–Not listed: Democracy, Jun 15 episode	–Not listed: Democracy, Jun 22 episode	YSettled yes: Democracy, Jun 23 episode	–Not listed: Democracy, Sep 23 episode	1 time: Democracy, Oct 7 episode, counts as said	2/2100%	2/2100%	–
Hormuz	–Not listed: Hormuz, Mar 18 interview	NSettled no: Hormuz, Apr 14 episode	NSettled no: Hormuz, Jun 15 episode	–Not listed: Hormuz, Jun 22 episode	–Not listed: Hormuz, Jun 23 episode	–Not listed: Hormuz, Sep 23 episode	–Not listed: Hormuz, Oct 7 episode	0/20%	0/20%	–
Iran / Iranian	–Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Mar 18 interview	NSettled no: Iran / Iranian, Apr 14 episode	–Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Jun 15 episode	–Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Jun 22 episode	–Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Jun 23 episode	–Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Sep 23 episode	0 times: Iran / Iranian, Oct 7 episode	0/20%	0/20%	–
Redistrict / Redistricting / Redistricted	–Not listed: Redistrict / Redistricting / Redistricted, Mar 18 interview	–Not listed: Redistrict / Redistricting / Redistricted, Apr 14 episode	NSettled no: Redistrict / Redistricting / Redistricted, Jun 15 episode	–Not listed: Redistrict / Redistricting / Redistricted, Jun 22 episode	–Not listed: Redistrict / Redistricting / Redistricted, Jun 23 episode	–Not listed: Redistrict / Redistricting / Redistricted, Sep 23 episode	0 times: Redistrict / Redistricting / Redistricted, Oct 7 episode	0/20%	0/20%	–
Shutdown / Shut Down	NSettled no: Shutdown / Shut Down, Mar 18 interview	NSettled no: Shutdown / Shut Down, Apr 14 episode	–Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Jun 15 episode	–Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Jun 22 episode	–Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Jun 23 episode	–Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Sep 23 episode	–Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Oct 7 episode	0/20%	0/20%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Pope	–Not listed: Pope, Mar 18 interview	YSettled yes: Pope, Apr 14 episode	–Not listed: Pope, Jun 15 episode	–Not listed: Pope, Jun 22 episode	–Not listed: Pope, Jun 23 episode	–Not listed: Pope, Sep 23 episode	–Not listed: Pope, Oct 7 episode	1/1100%	1/1100%	–
Save Act / Save America Act	YSettled yes: Save Act / Save America Act, Mar 18 interview	–Not listed: Save Act / Save America Act, Apr 14 episode	–Not listed: Save Act / Save America Act, Jun 15 episode	–Not listed: Save Act / Save America Act, Jun 22 episode	–Not listed: Save Act / Save America Act, Jun 23 episode	–Not listed: Save Act / Save America Act, Sep 23 episode	–Not listed: Save Act / Save America Act, Oct 7 episode	1/1100%	1/1100%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
2028 / Campaign	–Not listed: 2028 / Campaign, Mar 18 interview	–Not listed: 2028 / Campaign, Apr 14 episode	–Not listed: 2028 / Campaign, Jun 15 episode	–Not listed: 2028 / Campaign, Jun 22 episode	NSettled no: 2028 / Campaign, Jun 23 episode	–Not listed: 2028 / Campaign, Sep 23 episode	–Not listed: 2028 / Campaign, Oct 7 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–
AI / Artificial Intelligence	–Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Mar 18 interview	–Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Apr 14 episode	–Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Jun 15 episode	NSettled no: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Jun 22 episode	–Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Jun 23 episode	–Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Sep 23 episode	–Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Oct 7 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–
Ballroom	–Not listed: Ballroom, Mar 18 interview	–Not listed: Ballroom, Apr 14 episode	–Not listed: Ballroom, Jun 15 episode	–Not listed: Ballroom, Jun 22 episode	NSettled no: Ballroom, Jun 23 episode	–Not listed: Ballroom, Sep 23 episode	–Not listed: Ballroom, Oct 7 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–
Ballroom / Pool	–Not listed: Ballroom / Pool, Mar 18 interview	–Not listed: Ballroom / Pool, Apr 14 episode	–Not listed: Ballroom / Pool, Jun 15 episode	NSettled no: Ballroom / Pool, Jun 22 episode	–Not listed: Ballroom / Pool, Jun 23 episode	–Not listed: Ballroom / Pool, Sep 23 episode	–Not listed: Ballroom / Pool, Oct 7 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–
Billionaire	–Not listed: Billionaire, Mar 18 interview	–Not listed: Billionaire, Apr 14 episode	–Not listed: Billionaire, Jun 15 episode	–Not listed: Billionaire, Jun 22 episode	–Not listed: Billionaire, Jun 23 episode	–Not listed: Billionaire, Sep 23 episode	0 times: Billionaire, Oct 7 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–
Ceasefire	–Not listed: Ceasefire, Mar 18 interview	NSettled no: Ceasefire, Apr 14 episode	–Not listed: Ceasefire, Jun 15 episode	–Not listed: Ceasefire, Jun 22 episode	–Not listed: Ceasefire, Jun 23 episode	–Not listed: Ceasefire, Sep 23 episode	–Not listed: Ceasefire, Oct 7 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–
ICE / DHS	NSettled no: ICE / DHS, Mar 18 interview	–Not listed: ICE / DHS, Apr 14 episode	–Not listed: ICE / DHS, Jun 15 episode	–Not listed: ICE / DHS, Jun 22 episode	–Not listed: ICE / DHS, Jun 23 episode	–Not listed: ICE / DHS, Sep 23 episode	–Not listed: ICE / DHS, Oct 7 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
FBI	NSettled no: FBI, Mar 18 interview	–Not listed: FBI, Apr 14 episode	–Not listed: FBI, Jun 15 episode	–Not listed: FBI, Jun 22 episode	–Not listed: FBI, Jun 23 episode	–Not listed: FBI, Sep 23 episode	–Not listed: FBI, Oct 7 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Housing	NSettled no: Housing, Mar 18 interview	–Not listed: Housing, Apr 14 episode	–Not listed: Housing, Jun 15 episode	–Not listed: Housing, Jun 22 episode	–Not listed: Housing, Jun 23 episode	–Not listed: Housing, Sep 23 episode	–Not listed: Housing, Oct 7 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
ICE / TSA	–Not listed: ICE / TSA, Mar 18 interview	NSettled no: ICE / TSA, Apr 14 episode	–Not listed: ICE / TSA, Jun 15 episode	–Not listed: ICE / TSA, Jun 22 episode	–Not listed: ICE / TSA, Jun 23 episode	–Not listed: ICE / TSA, Sep 23 episode	–Not listed: ICE / TSA, Oct 7 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–
Iran	NSettled no: Iran, Mar 18 interview	–Not listed: Iran, Apr 14 episode	–Not listed: Iran, Jun 15 episode	–Not listed: Iran, Jun 22 episode	–Not listed: Iran, Jun 23 episode	–Not listed: Iran, Sep 23 episode	–Not listed: Iran, Oct 7 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–n=1 too little history for a probability
Kennedy / RFK	–Not listed: Kennedy / RFK, Mar 18 interview	NSettled no: Kennedy / RFK, Apr 14 episode	–Not listed: Kennedy / RFK, Jun 15 episode	–Not listed: Kennedy / RFK, Jun 22 episode	–Not listed: Kennedy / RFK, Jun 23 episode	–Not listed: Kennedy / RFK, Sep 23 episode	–Not listed: Kennedy / RFK, Oct 7 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–
Supreme Court	–Not listed: Supreme Court, Mar 18 interview	–Not listed: Supreme Court, Apr 14 episode	–Not listed: Supreme Court, Jun 15 episode	–Not listed: Supreme Court, Jun 22 episode	–Not listed: Supreme Court, Jun 23 episode	–Not listed: Supreme Court, Sep 23 episode	0 times: Supreme Court, Oct 7 episode	0/10%	0/10%	–

• Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
• N: settled no
• not listed
• probability next time, with n
• Select a word or a cell for its quotes

What the columns mean

Last N

of the appearances shown, how many counted as said

Settled

every settled market of the word: said / listed

Probability

the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history

Citeparrot.markets, “Raphael Warnock: mention market word history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/raphael-warnock (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/raphael-warnock · words: /api/v1/history?entity=raphael-warnock · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP