Will JD Vance say “2028 / Campaign”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “2028 / Campaign” at 18 of 32 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 27, 2026 (56%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 72% (n=32, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 5 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 press briefings; Oct 1, 2025 – Sep 3, 2026), since fewer than 2 rallies have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3. No rallies among them yet.
- Last 10
- 9/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 9 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 70¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
JD Vance
2028 / Campaign
- Probability
- 72% · n=32
- Settled
- 18/32 (56%)
- Last 5 transcripts
- said in 3 of 5
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (5 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…record high of about 9.5 percent. And it's funny, during the 2024 campaign, the president and I would say this is the highest inflation in…
…extremely effective at in destroying during the last three months of the campaign. All the president said yesterday is that of course region -- countries…
The option B is that we could restart the military campaign to continue to prosecute the case, to continue to try to achieve America's objectives,…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 34 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | 2028 / Campaign |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 2028 / Campaign | Kalshi | Yes |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 2028 / Campaign | Kalshi | Yes |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 2028 / Campaign | Kalshi | Yes |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 2028 / Campaign |  Polymarket | Yes |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 2028 / Campaign | Kalshi | Yes |
| Oct 5, 2026 | 2028 / Campaign | Kalshi | Yes |
| Oct 1, 2026 | 2028 / Campaign | Kalshi | Yes |
| Oct 1, 2026 | 2028 / Campaign | Kalshi | Yes |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 2028 / Campaign | Kalshi | Yes |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 2028 / Campaign | Kalshi | No |
| Sep 21, 2026 | 2028 / Campaign | Kalshi | Yes |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 2028 / Campaign | Kalshi | Yes |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 2028 / Campaign | Kalshi | No |
| Sep 14, 2026 | 2028 / Campaign | Kalshi | No |
| Sep 9, 2026 | 2028 / Campaign | Polymarket | Yes |
| Sep 9, 2026 | 2028 / Campaign | Kalshi | Yes |
| Sep 3, 2026 | 2028 / Campaign | Kalshi | Yes |
| Aug 13, 2026 | 2028 / Campaign | Kalshi | No |
| Aug 8, 2026 | 2028 / Campaign | Kalshi | No |
| Aug 5, 2026 | 2028 / Campaign | Kalshi | No |
| Jul 8, 2026 | 2028 / Campaign | Kalshi | Yes |
| Jul 1, 2026 | 2028 / Campaign | Kalshi | No |
| Jun 30, 2026 | 2028 / Campaign | Kalshi | No |
| Jun 17, 2026 | 2028 / Campaign | Kalshi | No |
| Jun 17, 2026 | 2028 / Campaign | Kalshi | No |
| Jun 16, 2026 | 2028 / Campaign | Kalshi | Yes |
| Jun 16, 2026 | 2028 / Campaign | Kalshi | No |
| Jun 16, 2026 | 2028 / Campaign | Kalshi | No |
| Jun 16, 2026 | 2028 / Campaign | Kalshi | Yes |
| Jun 15, 2026 | 2028 / Campaign | Kalshi | No |
| Jun 14, 2026 | 2028 / Campaign | Kalshi | No |
| May 19, 2026 | 2028 / Campaign | Kalshi | Yes |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 2028 / Campaign | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does JD Vance say “2028 / Campaign”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, JD Vance said “2028 / Campaign” at 18 of 32 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 27, 2026 (56%), most recently on Oct 21, 2026.
- What is the probability JD Vance says “2028 / Campaign” next time?
- 72%, from settlement history (n=32). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “JD Vance: ‘2028 / Campaign’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/jd-vance/words/2028-or-campaign (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=jd-vance&word=2028%20%2F%20campaign · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=jd-vance&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP