David Sacks
As of Oct 23, 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket have settled 18 word markets on David Sacks’ appearances since 2025, on 18 different words.
History Wall
1–18 of 18, most settled first| Word | Feb 4 ’25conference | Jan 22 ’26latest | Last 2 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | Settled yes: Bitcoin, Feb 4 ’25 conference | Not listed: Bitcoin, Jan 22 ’26 keynote | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| OpenAI / ChatGPT | Not listed: OpenAI / ChatGPT, Feb 4 ’25 conference | Settled yes: OpenAI / ChatGPT, Jan 22 ’26 keynote | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| China | Not listed: China, Feb 4 ’25 conference | Settled yes: China, Jan 22 ’26 keynote | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Economy / Economic | Not listed: Economy / Economic, Feb 4 ’25 conference | Settled yes: Economy / Economic, Jan 22 ’26 keynote | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| AGI / Artificial General Intelligence | Not listed: AGI / Artificial General Intelligence, Feb 4 ’25 conference | Settled no: AGI / Artificial General Intelligence, Jan 22 ’26 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Automation / Autonomous | Not listed: Automation / Autonomous, Feb 4 ’25 conference | Settled no: Automation / Autonomous, Jan 22 ’26 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Biden | Not listed: Biden, Feb 4 ’25 conference | Settled no: Biden, Jan 22 ’26 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Bitcoin / Blockchain | Not listed: Bitcoin / Blockchain, Feb 4 ’25 conference | Settled no: Bitcoin / Blockchain, Jan 22 ’26 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| California / Newsom | Not listed: California / Newsom, Feb 4 ’25 conference | Settled no: California / Newsom, Jan 22 ’26 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Democrat | Not listed: Democrat, Feb 4 ’25 conference | Settled no: Democrat, Jan 22 ’26 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Elon / xAI | Not listed: Elon / xAI, Feb 4 ’25 conference | Settled no: Elon / xAI, Jan 22 ’26 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Energy / Nuclear | Not listed: Energy / Nuclear, Feb 4 ’25 conference | Settled no: Energy / Nuclear, Jan 22 ’26 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Ethereum | Settled no: Ethereum, Feb 4 ’25 conference | Not listed: Ethereum, Jan 22 ’26 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Memecoin | Settled no: Memecoin, Feb 4 ’25 conference | Not listed: Memecoin, Jan 22 ’26 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Trump Coin/Official Trump | Settled no: Trump Coin/Official Trump, Feb 4 ’25 conference | Not listed: Trump Coin/Official Trump, Jan 22 ’26 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Pumpfun/Pump.fun | Settled no: Pumpfun/Pump.fun, Feb 4 ’25 conference | Not listed: Pumpfun/Pump.fun, Jan 22 ’26 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Self Driving | Not listed: Self Driving, Feb 4 ’25 conference | Settled no: Self Driving, Jan 22 ’26 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Solana | Settled no: Solana, Feb 4 ’25 conference | Not listed: Solana, Jan 22 ’26 keynote | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 2Settled results come from the venues. Our own transcript counts appear here once transcripts arrive for these appearances. How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | KeynoteWhat will David Sacks say during his WEF Conversation? | no transcript | 12 | 3 yes · 9 no | – |
| Feb 4, 2025 | Press conferenceWhat will David Sacks say during presser today? | no transcript | 6 | 1 yes · 5 no | – |
Citeparrot.markets, “David Sacks: mention market word history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/david-sacks (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/david-sacks · words: /api/v1/history?entity=david-sacks · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP