Hunter Biden
As of Oct 24, 2026, Kalshi has settled 36 word markets on Hunter Biden’s appearances since 2026, on 24 different words.
History Wall
1–24 of 24, most settled first| Word | May 21episode | Jun 12latest | Last 2 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China / Chinese | Settled yes: China / Chinese, May 21 episode | Settled yes: China / Chinese, Jun 12 episode | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 66%n=2 from settlement history |
| Corrupt / Corruption | Settled yes: Corrupt / Corruption, May 21 episode | Settled yes: Corrupt / Corruption, Jun 12 episode | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 66%n=2 from settlement history |
| Election | Settled yes: Election, May 21 episode | Settled yes: Election, Jun 12 episode | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 66%n=2 from settlement history |
| Iran / Iranian | Settled yes: Iran / Iranian, May 21 episode | Settled yes: Iran / Iranian, Jun 12 episode | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 66%n=2 from settlement history |
| Republican | Settled yes: Republican, May 21 episode | Settled yes: Republican, Jun 12 episode | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 66%n=2 from settlement history |
| Trump5+ times | Settled yes: Trump (5+ times), May 21 episode | Settled yes: Trump (5+ times), Jun 12 episode | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 66%n=2 from settlement history |
| Ukraine | Settled yes: Ukraine, May 21 episode | Settled yes: Ukraine, Jun 12 episode | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 66%n=2 from settlement history |
| Conspiracy | Settled yes: Conspiracy, May 21 episode | Settled no: Conspiracy, Jun 12 episode | 1/250% | 1/250% | 50%n=2 from settlement history |
| FBI | Settled no: FBI, May 21 episode | Settled yes: FBI, Jun 12 episode | 1/250% | 1/250% | 55%n=2 from settlement history |
| Pardon / Pardoned | Settled no: Pardon / Pardoned, May 21 episode | Settled yes: Pardon / Pardoned, Jun 12 episode | 1/250% | 1/250% | 55%n=2 from settlement history |
| Bibi / Netanyahu | Settled no: Bibi / Netanyahu, May 21 episode | Settled no: Bibi / Netanyahu, Jun 12 episode | 0/20% | 0/20% | 39%n=2 from settlement history |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Settled no: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, May 21 episode | Settled no: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Jun 12 episode | 0/20% | 0/20% | 39%n=2 from settlement history |
| 2028 / Campaign | Not listed: 2028 / Campaign, May 21 episode | Settled yes: 2028 / Campaign, Jun 12 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Democracy | Not listed: Democracy, May 21 episode | Settled yes: Democracy, Jun 12 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Epstein | Not listed: Epstein, May 21 episode | Settled yes: Epstein, Jun 12 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Healthcare | Not listed: Healthcare, May 21 episode | Settled yes: Healthcare, Jun 12 episode | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Not listed: AI / Artificial Intelligence, May 21 episode | Settled no: AI / Artificial Intelligence, Jun 12 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Fraud | Settled no: Fraud, May 21 episode | Not listed: Fraud, Jun 12 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Kamala | Settled no: Kamala, May 21 episode | Not listed: Kamala, Jun 12 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Melania | Settled no: Melania, May 21 episode | Not listed: Melania, Jun 12 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Pratt | Not listed: Pratt, May 21 episode | Settled no: Pratt, Jun 12 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Propaganda | Settled no: Propaganda, May 21 episode | Not listed: Propaganda, Jun 12 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Russia / Russian | Settled no: Russia / Russian, May 21 episode | Not listed: Russia / Russian, Jun 12 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Weaponize / Weaponized / Weaponization | Settled no: Weaponize / Weaponized / Weaponization, May 21 episode | Not listed: Weaponize / Weaponized / Weaponization, Jun 12 episode | 0/10% | 0/10% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 2Settled results come from the venues. Our own transcript counts appear here once transcripts arrive for these appearances. How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will Hunter Biden say during the This is Gavin Newsom Podcast? | no transcript | 19 | 13 yes · 6 no | – |
| May 21, 2026 | EpisodeWhat will Hunter Biden say during the Candace Owens Show? | no transcript | 19 | 8 yes · 11 no | – |
Citeparrot.markets, “Hunter Biden: mention market word history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics/hunter-biden (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/hunter-biden · words: /api/v1/history?entity=hunter-biden · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP