Politics: VP & cabinet mention markets

As of Oct 25, 2026, Parrot lists 1 VP & cabinet mention-market event in the next 14 days, for 21 people, shows and companies.

US politics: cabinet, Congress, governors, hearings, debates, courts, candidates.

Data updated · Source: Kalshi, Polymarket, transcripts

Numbers: events in the next 14 days

Coming up

next 14 days · 1 event

K = Kalshi, P = Polymarket: mid prices, up to about 20 minutes old. Not advice.

Mon, Oct 26

1 event

JD Vance · Rally in Kansas

JD VanceRally in Kansas
JD Vance: times each word was said per appearance, oldest first, and the probability for the next one
Word7 listings before the last6 listings before the last5 listings before the last4 listings before the last3 listings before the last2 listings before the last1 listing before the lastthe last settled listingChance
next time: probability
DemocratK 92¢Democrat: said, 7 listings before the lastDemocrat: said, 6 listings before the lastDemocrat: said, 5 listings before the lastDemocrat: said, 4 listings before the lastDemocrat: said, 3 listings before the lastDemocrat: said, 2 listings before the lastDemocrat: said, 1 listing before the lastDemocrat: said, the last settled listing84% from settlement history
ElectionK 86¢Election: said, 7 listings before the lastElection: said, 6 listings before the lastElection: said, 5 listings before the lastElection: said, 4 listings before the lastElection: said, 3 listings before the lastElection: said, 2 listings before the lastElection: said, 1 listing before the lastElection: said, the last settled listing78% from settlement history
2028K 74¢2028: said, 7 listings before the last2028: said, 6 listings before the last2028: said, 5 listings before the last2028: said, 4 listings before the last2028: said, 3 listings before the last2028: said, 2 listings before the last2028: said, 1 listing before the last2028: said, the last settled listing72% from settlement history
BidenK 82¢Biden: said, 7 listings before the lastBiden: said, 6 listings before the lastBiden: said, 5 listings before the lastBiden: not said, 4 listings before the lastBiden: said, 3 listings before the lastBiden: said, 2 listings before the lastBiden: not said, 1 listing before the lastBiden: not said, the last settled listing67% from settlement history
Tax on TipsK 70¢Tax on Tips: said, 7 listings before the lastTax on Tips: said, 6 listings before the lastTax on Tips: said, 5 listings before the lastTax on Tips: said, 4 listings before the lastTax on Tips: not said, 3 listings before the lastTax on Tips: said, 2 listings before the lastTax on Tips: not said, 1 listing before the lastTax on Tips: said, the last settled listing66% from settlement history
Illegal AlienK 51¢Illegal Alien: said, 7 listings before the lastIllegal Alien: said, 6 listings before the lastIllegal Alien: said, 5 listings before the lastIllegal Alien: not said, 4 listings before the lastIllegal Alien: not said, 3 listings before the lastIllegal Alien: said, 2 listings before the lastIllegal Alien: said, 1 listing before the lastIllegal Alien: not said, the last settled listing61% from settlement history

Recently settled

  1. JD Vance

    Wed, Oct 21 · Fraud press conference

    6 of 25 words said

    Settled by the venues; no transcript count yet
    • 2028Yes
    • CaliforniaYes
    • DemocratYes
    • ElectionYes
  2. JD Vance

    Tue, Oct 20 · Announcement

    4 of 17 words said

    Settled by the venues; no transcript count yet
    • AffordYes
    • DemocratYes
    • FraudYes
    • TaxpayerYes

Who is covered

21, most active first

Most-tracked words

by settled listings; probability = calibrated p for the next listing
Politics: most-tracked words
WordWhoLast 10 settledSaid when listedNext time
BidenJD VanceJD Vance7/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes no yes yes no no50/7368%67%n=73 from settlement history
AIJD VanceJD Vance1/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no yes no no no10/6017%18%n=60 from settlement history
DemocratJD VanceJD Vance10/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes45/5680%84%n=56 from settlement history
TariffScott BessentScott Bessent7/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes yes yes yes no no yes yes17/2471%61%n=24 from settlement history
Stock MarketScott BessentScott Bessent3/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no no no yes no no no no7/2330%30%n=23 from settlement history

Citeparrot.markets, “Politics: VP & cabinet mention markets”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/politics?sub=vp-cabinet (CC BY 4.0)