Donald Trump: Weekly window, Oct 18, 2026
Polymarket What will Trump say this week? (October 12 - October 18)
Coverage
7 known appearances0 of 7 known appearances transcribed Window: Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026. Counts: spoken only (posts do not count). 0 own posts by @realDonaldTrump. Counts are lower bounds until every appearance is transcribed.
- Oct 12, 2026 Donald Trump: Midterm Rally in Ohio transcript pending
- Oct 13, 2026 Donald Trump: Midterm Rally in Alaska transcript pending
- Oct 14, 2026 Donald Trump: Midterm Rally in Arizona transcript pending
- Oct 14, 2026 Donald Trump: Midterm Rally in Montana transcript pending
- Oct 15, 2026 Donald Trump: Tele-rally with Darline Graham transcript pending
- Oct 16, 2026 Donald Trump: Midterm Rally in Georgia transcript pending
- Oct 17, 2026 Donald Trump: Midterm Rally in Kentucky transcript pending
Markets
13 words · 8 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waitress | Yes | – | 0 | 54%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Muscle / Muscular | Yes | – | 0 | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Dad / Daddy | Yes | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Budget | Yes | – | 0 | 49%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Pilot | Yes | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Swim / Swimming | Yes | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Handsome | Yes | – | 0 | 43%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | Yes | – | 0 | 39%n=110 from settlement history | – |
| Mardi Gras | No | – | 0 | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Osama Bin Laden | No | – | 0 | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Khomeini / Khamenei | No | – | 0 | 48%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Third Term | No | – | 0 | 47%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Nobel | No | – | 0 | 33%n=43 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-trump-say-this-week-october-12-october-18-20261018 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP